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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Joe Posnanski Blog: ERA and Ks

Quickie Pozquiz…

Felix may not end up leading the league in either category. Jered Weaver is only three strikeouts behind, and he will pitch Friday. Clay Bucholz is just a few hundredths behind Hernandez in ERA and he’s scheduled to go Saturday. I assume King Felix will pitch the Mariners finale on Sunday, but I guess that hasn’t been announced yet.

Anyway, I was wondering how often a pitcher who led the league in ERA and strikeouts DID NOT win the Cy Young Award. It has happened—more often than I expected to be honest.

From my quick count 19 of the 24 times a pitcher has led his league in strikeouts and ERA since 1966 (the first year they gave out Cy Young Awards to each league), the pitcher did win the Cy Young Award.

But that still leaves five pitchers who led their league in ERA and Ks who did not win the Cy Young. See if you can come up with them ... I was able to come up with one off the top of my head, and scrambled to come up with another. But I missed the other three.

Repoz Posted: September 30, 2010 at 10:33 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, history

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   1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: September 30, 2010 at 12:08 PM (#3651821)
Pedro should have won in 2002 and I believe he lost out to Zito. I'm pretty sure he led the league in ERA and k's. Otherwise, I'm drawing blanks.
   2. TomH Posted: September 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM (#3651829)
while looking up answers, I found htis curious note to Tom Seaver's career:

He led the league in wins three times.
He led the league in KOs six times.
.... but Never in the same season.
   3. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 30, 2010 at 12:39 PM (#3651830)
He led the league in wins three times.
He led the league in KOs six times.
.... but Never in the same season.


1975: 22-9 243 K
   4. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 30, 2010 at 12:47 PM (#3651832)
Clay Bucholz is just a few hundredths behind Hernandez in ERA and he’s scheduled to go Saturday.


Well, he has to pitch 5.1 innings and give up no runs, or go 8.1 if he gives up 1, so it's not quite as easy as Pos intimates. If he gives up 2, there's no way he can do it. Be interesting to see how generous the hometown scoring is.
   5. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM (#3651837)
2002 Pedro led the major leagues in ERA and ERA+, WHIP, and winning percentage, and led the American League in strikeouts and K/BB. 2002 Zito led the AL in wins and starts. 2002 Halladay led the AL in IP.
   6. DCA Posted: September 30, 2010 at 01:00 PM (#3651838)
Well, he has to pitch 5.1 innings and give up no runs, or go 8.1 if he gives up 1, so it's not quite as easy as Pos intimates.

Or Felix pitches, and not so well. I wonder if the M's would skip Felix in order to preserve the ERA title if Buchholz is right behind him, or let him throw to try to get one more win.
   7. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 30, 2010 at 01:02 PM (#3651839)
Ryan has to be one of them, right? I assume he led the league in K's the same year he led in ERA while going 8-16.
   8. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: September 30, 2010 at 01:06 PM (#3651841)
Clemens in 1990 would seem like a good bet to be one of the five.
   9. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 30, 2010 at 01:21 PM (#3651847)
Off topic, but during the O's-Rays game last night they flashed an interesting stat: Uehara has struck out something like 45 batters since his last walk, the longest streak since Pedro in 2002.
   10. TomH Posted: September 30, 2010 at 01:45 PM (#3651861)
#3: oops, mybad. I was looking at KO/IP, not KO.

Seaver also led in ERA 3x, and wins 3X, and in 6 different seasons.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 30, 2010 at 02:02 PM (#3651872)
Roger Clemens in 2005 was my first guess, but I see he did not lead the league in Ks that year (nor did he in 1990).
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 30, 2010 at 02:06 PM (#3651875)
Pitchers I never would have guessed led the league in K:

Scott Kazmir
Esteban Loaiza
Aaron Harang
Andy Benes
Jose DeLeon
Jack Morris
Floyd Bannister
   13. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 30, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3651882)
Pitchers I never would have guessed led the league in K:

Scott Kazmir
Esteban Loaiza
Aaron Harang
Andy Benes
Jose DeLeon
Jack Morris
Floyd Bannister


Not as obscure as ERA leaders:

Steve Ontiveros
Bill Swift
Danny darwin
Scott garrelts
Joe Magrane
Alan Anderson
Atlee Hammaker
Rudy May

How and when did Dave Righetti become the 1981 AL ERA leader? Did someone find a missing IP or something which made him eligible? The famous Steve McCatty/Sammy Stewart controversy never happened?

Looking closer, he had 105 IP and the Yankees played 107 games. Was there a re-interpretation of the eligibility rule?
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: September 30, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3651885)
If he gives up 2, there's no way he can do it.


The Red Sox could let him go 16 2/3.
   15. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 30, 2010 at 02:23 PM (#3651886)
How about Kevin Brown? I'm not sure if I should be checking these guesses via BB-ref or if someone else has been deputized to do that.
   16. SoSH U at work Posted: September 30, 2010 at 02:31 PM (#3651895)
Steve Carlton.
Randy Johnson.
   17. Don Malcolm Posted: September 30, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3651949)
Guys, you should probably just RTFA. Tom Seaver did this twice, two years in a row (70-71), and didn't win. He was five wins behind the CYA winner in each season, which has been the upper limit of what voters would "forgive"--even in the cases of Lincecum and Greinke last year.

Just a couple of problems with Joe's post, which has its heart but not all of its research in the right place.

First, the Cy Young Award went dual-league in 1967, not 1966.

Second, Sandy Koufax did not win in 1967, he won in 1966 (last single-league winner).

Third, does anybody really expect to give a CYA to someone in a situation like Ryan's in '87? This is a kind of litmus for "common sense" vs. the hidden truth in numbers: it's probably the most extreme example that will ever exist. Even with "advanced metrics," it's never going to be a slam dunk to give someone a CYA with single-digit wins and a WPCT of less than .400.

It might have been interesting if Joe (or anyone else) had noted the season that Jim Bunning had in 1967, which may wind up being the most similar to what happens with Felix. That year, Bunning led the league in K's (253), IP (302), and, yes, in WAR (8.4); finished second in ERA (2.29). His won-loss record was 17-15.

He finished second in the CYA voting, losing to a guy (Mike McCormick) who had five more wins than him.
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: September 30, 2010 at 03:44 PM (#3651974)
Don,

We like to guess.
   19. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 30, 2010 at 03:58 PM (#3651993)
First, the Cy Young Award went dual-league in 1967, not 1966.Second, Sandy Koufax did not win in 1967, he won in 1966 (last single-league winner).

yeah--I was going to mention that mistake by Poz

Koufax led the NL in ERA and K's in 63,65, and 66. Sudden Sam led the AL in both in 65.
   20. Bizarro ARod Posted: September 30, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3652004)
It looks like King Felix also leads the AL in unearned runs.
   21. Petuniaviles Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:21 PM (#3652222)
I wonder if the M's would skip Felix in order to preserve the ERA title if Buchholz is right behind him, or let him throw to try to get one more win.

He's 13-12. He needs one more win. The stats/peripherals race isn't close enough to prioritize winning the ERA title by a miniscule margin over getting to 2 games over .500. I think 14-12 he takes the CYA walking away. 13-13 he has almost no chance. If he gets a ND this weekend, but pitches well... this is going to be interesting, either way. But the point is that he will pitch this weekend, no doubt about it.

Trivia I hard from Tim Kurkjian: King Felix already has 30 quality starts. Every pitcher ever to record 30 quality starts in one season won the CYA. If Felix manages not to win it, Jack Z will owe him a pretty huge apology.
   22. TomH Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:31 PM (#3652227)
no, the ERA title means more than 1 more win. To the voters. They will justify not voting for him if he doesn't get it.

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