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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Joe Posnanski Blog: Obviopiphany

The question is simply this: If a player, even for one season, plays at the very highest level in the history of the game — I mean at the Ruth level, the Mays level, the Williams level, the Walter Johnson level, the Sandy Koufax level — does that make the person a Hall of Famer?

... And after seeing this sort of thing over and over — the mentioning of Greg Vaughn and George Foster and Albert Belle and Jose Bautista — I realized something that I probably should have already known — my obviopiphany. People, in large part, think of big home run seasons as great seasons. In many minds, they are one in the same. Lots of home runs = A historic season. I know, this realization is hardly groundbreaking, I told you that.

... But in my obviopiphany, I wondered if it isn’t much simpler than this: Maybe the steroid rage is ALL about home runs. I mean, maybe it isn’t about anything else at all — with a little collateral damage thrown in.* Wouldn’t that explain some of these contradictions? My obviopiphany is that home runs alone define how many people look at the game. Home runs alone create the image of a great season. Home runs stay with people long after everything else. Steroids meant more home runs — fake home runs to so many — and maybe this above all is what created the stir, the Congressional hearings, the lying and cover-ups and all the other stuff. Maybe it’s no more complicated than that.

My Grate Friend, Peason's pants are rankled Posted: August 31, 2010 at 10:52 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1. OCF Posted: September 01, 2010 at 02:07 AM (#3631375)
Leaving aside the "obviopiphany" (and I don't want to talk about either steroids or dingers), Posnanski listed some years that he did consider as single seasons at an all-time great level:

Norm Cash, 1961
Al Rosen, 1953
Dick Allen, 1972 and 1964
Dwight Gooden, 1985
Ron Guidry, 1978

He even undersold Gooden by saying "You could make a persuasive argument that Gooden in 1985 ... was as good as Koufax in his best years." No, Joe, Koufax never had a year that good.

I found a few more that I never knew about until I joined the Hall of Merit gang. Here's maybe my favorite one-season peak case:

George Stone, 1906.

Never heard of him? I hadn't, either.
   2. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: September 01, 2010 at 04:21 AM (#3631449)
Was he a St. Louis Brown?
   3. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 01, 2010 at 04:31 AM (#3631450)
Maybe the steroid rage is ALL about home runs. I mean, maybe it isn’t about anything else at all — with a little collateral damage thrown in.

nope--it's all about home runs by Barry Bonds--everything else was/is irrelevant
   4. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 01, 2010 at 05:04 AM (#3631463)
Home runs alone create the image of a great season.

If you started listing all the exceptions to that you might fill a small book. What much more generally defines a "great" season is a player far outstripping his contemporaries in almost any major category: Carew, Brett, Wills, Brock, Henderson, Raines, Ichiro, Cobb, Hornsby, Sisler, Cash, Mattingly, even a schlump like Vince Coleman, etc., etc., and almost too many pitchers to mention. Hell, some players have had seasons that were talked about as "great" for no other reason than their fielding, one outstanding example being Jimmy Piersall in 1953.
   5. OCF Posted: September 01, 2010 at 05:04 AM (#3631464)
Yes, essentially all of Stone's rather brief career was with the Browns. Now that minor league records, even that far back, are in bb-ref, I see that he did hit .400 with power for a minor league team in 1904. But that 1906 season of his was (in the context of its deep deadball times) a towering accomplishment.

For some pitcher seasons:

Joe Wood, 1912 (except, of course, Walter Johnson was better even that year)

Dolf Luque, 1923

Dizzy Dean, 1934 (except that Dean, unlike Gooden or Chance, got the world to consider him a great pitcher despite his brief career, and is in the HoF)

Dean Chance, 1964 (OK, it was the weaker league, and Chance was as terrible a hitter as Koufax)
   6. Davo Malvolio Posted: September 01, 2010 at 05:19 AM (#3631469)
Bret Boone was a regular for 11 years who played in over 1700 games. Almost half of his career value came in 2001, when he put up a 331/372/578 line with 37 home runs, led the league in RBIs....and doubled as the best defensive second baseman in baseball.

He belongs on a list like this.
   7. OCF Posted: September 01, 2010 at 05:26 AM (#3631471)
Hell, some players have had seasons that were talked about as "great" for no other reason than their fielding, one outstanding example being Jimmy Piersall in 1953.

Darin Erstad, 2002?
   8. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 01, 2010 at 05:55 AM (#3631473)
Dizzy Dean, 1934 (except that Dean, unlike Gooden or Chance, got the world to consider him a great pitcher despite his brief career, and is in the HoF)


Dean was a great pitcher - for a short time, granted, but he was a great pitcher at his peak, and not just for one year. Dean was MVP in 1934, and finished second in the voting the next two seasons. Has any other pitcher finished in the top two of the MVP voting three straight years?

He was probably the most famous player in baseball once Ruth retired in mid-1935, despite playing in St. Louis. Now I can see why many might think that his career was too short to merit HoF induction (the pitched twelve years, but three of those years consisted of exactly one game each), and he only had five really good seasons, but I'd much rather have a player like him in the HoF than a Jessie Haines...
   9. ValueArbitrageur Posted: September 01, 2010 at 06:14 AM (#3631478)
How can .311/.338 /.498/.836 in the post-steroid era from a top defensive rightfielder with a cannon arm and a sparkling personality who never shrunk from the biggest stages not be HOFworthy?
   10. An Athletic in Powderhorn Posted: September 01, 2010 at 06:29 AM (#3631483)
More for the list:

Adrian Beltre, 2004
Wilbur Wood, 1971
Dick Ellsworth, 1963. Before looking these up I'd never heard of this season. WAR rates him a sliver ahead of Koufax that year, 9.8 to 9.6. Ellsworth received 2% of the MVP vote; Koufax 85%.
Russ Ford, 1910. Ok, I've never heard of this guy at all. Apparently he invented the emery ball. That explains how he came out of nowhere to post one of the greatest rookie seasons ever. Jumped to the Feds in 1914 for another great year, but must have hurt his arm, because he was awful the next year and immediately gone.
Rico Petrocelli, 1969
Jose Rijo, 1993

Edit: The bit about the emery ball was added after doing more research about Ford.
   11. OCF Posted: September 01, 2010 at 06:40 AM (#3631484)
I've heard Russ Ford's name associated with new advances in ball-doctoring. I think he was a scuffer. One speculation might be that as soon as the world figured out what he was doing, there were other pitchers, perhaps more skilled to begin with, who could do it better. The overall narrative is that a new lively ball lifted offense out of the deadball depths for 1911-1912, but the scuffers, spitters, et al. expanded their ball-altering sufficiently for offensive levels to drop back down to the basement for the rest of the decade.

"Do you vote for Dizzy Dean" is one question you can use to determine how peak-oriented a Hall of Merit voter is, but the ultimate version of that question is, "Do you vote for Al Rosen?" (Note Rosen's presence on Posnanski's list.)
   12. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 01, 2010 at 06:42 AM (#3631485)
Russ Ford, 1910. Ok, I've never heard of this guy at all. One of the greatest rookie seasons ever. Jumped to the Feds in 1914 for another great year, but must have hurt his arm, because he was awful the next year and immediately gone.


Ford didn't hurt his arm. What happened was that his only good pitch was outlawed. Ford was the greatest practitioner of the emery ball, a pitch that broke sharply because one side of the ball was scuffed with emery paper. Ford was also a spitballer, which was legal in those days, and disguised his out pitch as a spitball. In 1914, his secret was revealed when Cy Falkenberg also learned the pitch and used it, but was unable to stop others from finding out about it. The pitch was outlawed by all three leagues (the AL, NL, and Federal League) and umpires were told to watch for it and prevent its use. Deprived of his only weapon, Ford was unable to get batters out, and retired at the end of the 1915 season.
   13. OCF Posted: September 01, 2010 at 06:54 AM (#3631489)
... and umpires were told to watch for it and prevent its use.

How did they do that when they didn't routinely throw balls out of play? Maybe you couldn't do it too blatantly, but without the umpires removing the doctored balls, the scuffers would have found a way anyway (even if not Ford personally). One of the biggest changes circa 1920 was the routine removal of balls.
   14. Mat Gleason Posted: September 01, 2010 at 06:58 AM (#3631490)
Dan Brouthers, 1892
   15. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 01, 2010 at 07:00 AM (#3631491)
How did they do that when they didn't routinely through balls out of play? Maybe you couldn't do it too blatantly, but without the umpires removing the doctored balls, the scuffers would have found a way anyway (even if not Ford personally). One of the biggest changes circa 1920 was the routine removal of balls.


That's an excellent question, and one that I don't know the answer to. In the Federal League, the penalty was that the pitcher would be fined $200 (which was a lot of money in those days) and suspended for ten days, so the league was certainly taking it seriously.
   16. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 01, 2010 at 10:54 AM (#3631503)
"Do you vote for Dizzy Dean" is one question you can use to determine how peak-oriented a Hall of Merit voter is, but the ultimate version of that question is, "Do you vote for Al Rosen?" (Note Rosen's presence on Posnanski's list.)

That really would be a stretch, considering that in Rosen's one signature year when he barely missed the Triple Crown, Eddie Mathews in the NL hit more homers, and Roy Campanella in the NL had only three fewer RBI. A better test, and one that more people might recognize as such, would be Denny McLain.

And BTW has there ever before been a Posnanski column whose main point of argument ("Home runs alone create the image of a great season") nobody's really agreed with? I can't think of any. It's almost a relief to know that JoePo is human.
   17. Tim Stauffer, Trot Nixon's Coming (Dan Lee) Posted: September 01, 2010 at 10:58 AM (#3631504)
Lonnie Smith '89 was a pretty remarkable season from an otherwise good but unspectacular player. His previous high in home runs in a season was 8. He hit 21 that year. His career SLG in seasons other than '89 was .408, but he slugged .533 in 1989.

I know there were off-field reasons for his poor play in the mid-80s, but still...that 1989 season was just totally out of character.
   18. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: September 01, 2010 at 11:47 AM (#3631511)
I do think it's an interesting question. Let's take the extreme case: An amazing player, let's call him The Natural, comes into the league and hits .600 in his first season. Really, .600. With an .850 OBP. And he hits 125 home runs and has 270 RBI. And steals 65 bases, being caught 3 times. And takes the mound every fifth day, finishing with a 30-2 record and a 0.78 ERA. And then decides to become a hermit and retires at the end of the season.

Should he be elected (waiving the playing time requirement) to the HOF?
   19. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 01, 2010 at 12:07 PM (#3631517)
I do think it's an interesting question. Let's take the extreme case: An amazing player, let's call him The Natural, comes into the league and hits .600 in his first season. Really, .600. With an .850 OBP. And he hits 125 home runs and has 270 RBI. And steals 65 bases, being caught 3 times. And takes the mound every fifth day, finishing with a 30-2 record and a 0.78 ERA. And then decides to become a hermit and retires at the end of the season.

Should he be elected (waiving the playing time requirement) to the HOF?


You're goddam right he should, along with the three catchers who threw him out trying to steal.
   20. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 01, 2010 at 12:13 PM (#3631522)
No. He shouldn't be elected to the hall of fame.
He should, however, have a nice big display somewhere in the HOF that talks about the greatest season of all time.
Pictures, video clips, interviews, etc.
   21. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: September 01, 2010 at 12:25 PM (#3631526)
Did his teammates in college try to vote him off the team?

What if his 2.5 OPSing ass gets told to never come back instead of him retiring?
   22. bunyon Posted: September 01, 2010 at 12:26 PM (#3631528)
If you started listing all the exceptions to that you might fill a small book. What much more generally defines a "great" season is a player far outstripping his contemporaries in almost any major category: Carew, Brett, Wills, Brock, Henderson, Raines, Ichiro, Cobb, Hornsby, Sisler, Cash, Mattingly, even a schlump like Vince Coleman, etc., etc., and almost too many pitchers to mention. Hell, some players have had seasons that were talked about as "great" for no other reason than their fielding, one outstanding example being Jimmy Piersall in 1953.

Well, maybe it's just because I'm human, but I think he's got a point. He isn't talking about you, or really many of his readers or posters here. He's talking about some average guy who follows the game but doesn't study it. Go to the ballpark and ask 10 fans about the guys you list above. Most will "recognize" the name - say 8 out of 10. Maybe 2 in 10 will know what their singular achievement was. The general public simply doesn't put these things in memory the way most of us do.

Certainly there are students of the game who are outraged about steroids (such as yourself) but the general attitude toward PEDs is far more permissive amongst obsessive followers of MLB than in the general population. I think the HR factor is a good explanation. Folks around here know what you posted above and can see that a steep rise in HR isn't the whole story about greatness.

Obviously, there are lots of different reasons for people's attitudes on PEDs but the love of the HR and the drama of 1998 and the "horror" of 2001 and 756 explain the great bulk of most people's feelings about PEDs. If 70, 73 and 756 don't happen, PEDs is not the issue it has become.
   23. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: September 01, 2010 at 02:19 PM (#3631584)
Well, maybe it's just because I'm human, but I think he's got a point. He isn't talking about you, or really many of his readers or posters here. He's talking about some average guy who follows the game but doesn't study it. Go to the ballpark and ask 10 fans about the guys you list above. Most will "recognize" the name - say 8 out of 10. Maybe 2 in 10 will know what their singular achievement was. The general public simply doesn't put these things in memory the way most of us do.

Certainly there are students of the game who are outraged about steroids (such as yourself) but the general attitude toward PEDs is far more permissive amongst obsessive followers of MLB than in the general population. I think the HR factor is a good explanation. Folks around here know what you posted above and can see that a steep rise in HR isn't the whole story about greatness.


Well, doesn't it all kind of depend on your age? Do you really think that the average fan who was old enough to remember Guidry, Gooden or Wills wouldn't consider those seasons as transcendently "great"? I doubt if even too many 25 year olds wouldn't use that word to describe Pedro's 1999 season.

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