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Thursday, October 09, 2008

Joe Sheehan: Facts About Manny Ramirez

“Manny’s doing things that even Manny doesn’t do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base.”

I think this is a reference to Game Three of the NL Division Series, in which Manny Ramirez scored from first on a two-out double by James Loney. Is this play terribly unusual, something that Ramirez would not have done prior to the trade from Boston?

I think one of the beautiful things about the 21st century is that when people say silly things about baseball-or for that matter, politics-we’re going to be able to bring actual information out to counter the silly things. Smart people, talented people, like Bil Burke, will be able to go back through the record and prove or disprove statements like the one above.

In his two months as a Dodger prior to postseason play, Manny Ramirez scored from second base on a double to right field. Once. He had two chances to do so, and he did it once.

With the Red Sox this year, Manny Ramirez also scored from second base on a double to right field. Once. He had two chances to do so, and it did it once.

From this we can conclude that Manny Ramirez is doing things in Los Angeles he never did in Boston. Or something like that.

The samples are tiny, but basically, Ramirez didn’t score from second on doubles to right at any different frequency this year than he had of late. One-for-one last year, two-for-four in 2006, one-for-two in 2005. The idea that he hadn’t is just something Tim McCarver invented to sound smart, to make it seem like he knew something about Manny Ramirez that informed his position. And because the people who reported McCarver’s ramblings are dedicated journalists with laminated cards and everything, they fact-checked the claim and…no, wait…I did that. Bil Burke did that.

Not only does Manny Ramirez score from first on doubles more often than Tim McCarver thinks he does, and in no different proportion post-trade than he did pre-trade, but he scores from first on doubles more often than the average baseball player. The league gets home around 37% of the time, with some of the failures being very costly outs at the plate. As shown above, Ramirez gets home around half the time, and hasn’t been thrown out at the plate on that play since 1999. If the idea is to pick on Manny Ramirez, this is the wrong place to make a stand.

Tripon Posted: October 09, 2008 at 07:17 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers

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   1. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 12:06 PM (#2975091)
If somehow Boras becomes terminally ill or lost at sea between now and December, I would love to see Manny sign with the Jays.
   2. villageidiom Posted: October 09, 2008 at 12:31 PM (#2975097)
If somehow Boras becomes terminally ill or lost at sea between now and December, I would love to see Manny sign with the Jays.
He'll sign there, wanting to be closer to his home.
   3. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 12:36 PM (#2975098)
Joe Sheehan would appear to be good for something.
   4. Lassus Posted: October 09, 2008 at 12:37 PM (#2975099)
He'll sign there, wanting to be closer to his home.

Betelgeuse?
   5. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: October 09, 2008 at 12:46 PM (#2975107)
“Manny’s doing things that even Manny doesn’t do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base"..

In his two months as a Dodger prior to postseason play, Manny Ramirez scored from second base on a double to right field. Once. He had two chances to do so, and he did it once.

With the Red Sox this year, Manny Ramirez also scored from second base on a double to right field. Once. He had two chances to do so, and it did it once.

The samples are tiny, but basically, Ramirez didn’t score from second on doubles to right at any different frequency this year than he had of late.

Not only does Manny Ramirez score from first on doubles more often than Tim McCarver thinks he does, and in no different proportion post-trade than he did pre-trade, but he scores from first on doubles more often than the average baseball player.


Which is it? Is he talking about 2 different things here, or are the three second base references mistakes?
   6. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 09, 2008 at 01:06 PM (#2975109)
Mistakes. They updated the piece and Sheehan mentions the screwup in the comments.
   7. plim Posted: October 09, 2008 at 01:53 PM (#2975115)
i was starting to get confused. seemed like an extremely small sample size for him to score from second on a double, and all the talk about it being risky being thrown out at the plate.

that said, manny's not that stupid. he won't dog things that show up in box scores (runs), and perhaps even 21st century data mines (moving from first to 3rd?) he just dogs things like not running out ground outs. let's see the 21st century box scores prove me wrong on that!

but seriously...this is a fine example of how reputation exceeds actual performance:

see defense, derek jeter's, gold glove, 1999 1b

wow...he won the 1b gg and the DH ss that year. i forgot about that.
   8. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: October 09, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2975116)
Thanks Devin. I like this comment:

Speaking of McCarver spreading misinformation, does anybody remember how, during game 4, McCarver went on and on about how the Red Sox went after Lowell because they needed his leadership, presence, etc? I guess he can't remember all the way back to 2006, when the Red Sox grudgingly accepted Lowell because that was the only way the Marlins would give up Beckett.


I caught that as well and thought the same thing at the time. I'd like someone to question McCarver on that bit of revisionist history.
   9. The Essex Snead Posted: October 09, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#2975117)
Dipsticks might be pointing at nonsense like the baserunning, but it's all the ancillary stuff -- Manny's giddy skipping and smiling, and the spin surrounding it -- that fuels the supposed legitimacy of the "Manny playing hard" storyline.

I'm looking forward to syncing up the telecast w/ the radio broadcast tonight.
   10. Mattbert Posted: October 09, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2975129)
Facts:

1. Manny Ramirez is a mammal.

2. Manny Ramirez hits ALL the time.

3. The purpose of Manny Ramirez is to flip out and kill baseballs.

Conclusion:

Manny Ramirez has REAL ULTIMATE POWER!!!
   11. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 02:43 PM (#2975133)
Which is it? Is he talking about 2 different things here, or are the three second base references mistakes?


It's some sort of karmic thing when someone makes errors while pointing out the errors of others.
   12. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: October 09, 2008 at 02:49 PM (#2975137)
Are you talking about me or Sheehan?
   13. Moneyball can't buy you love (Joey B.) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2975139)

It's some sort of karmic thing when someone makes errors while pointing out the errors of others.


This is especially true when you take the rather superior, high-minded, arrogant tone that he does.
   14. Greg Schuler Posted: October 09, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2975152)
Jay Mariotti wants everyone to know he trademarked the "fraud who poops his pants" line and wishes more people would use to supplement his income. This being a great opportunity that was missed by McCarver.
   15. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 03:07 PM (#2975154)
I was talking about Joe, Misirlou. Sorry I wasn't clear. But I've done it before myself. I'm sure there's a post in the bowels of this place where I said something like "Bobby Thompson says hi." or something similar.
   16. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 03:11 PM (#2975156)
This is especially true when you take the rather superior, high-minded, arrogant tone that he does.

That's just spy vs. spy stuff when you remember he's calling out Tim McCarver for a particularly idiotic statement.
   17. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2975174)
I thought that Moe Jorgan had the arrogant explayer color analyst award on his mantel. No biggie. McCarver's probably a contender. It's weird though. He was well received at one point in his career. Nowadays, he seems unpopular all across the spectrum. I can't think of to many current McCarver fans no matter what their thoughts are on baseball.
   18. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: October 09, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2975189)
I seem to remember McCarver breaking into broadcasting when he was a fourth-string catcher for the Phillies late in his career. He would be called up into the booth during rain delays – this in the days when radio stations had nothing better to broadcast than the rain delay itself – and he was really very insightful and charming. One senses that he hasn't developed over the years, though. He tends to go over the same things again and again and ... he probably jumped the shark back when he did the Winter Olympics. That was sort of beyond him, IIRC.
   19. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: October 09, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2975196)
“Manny’s doing things that even Manny doesn’t do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base.”
quality management?
   20. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#2975204)
I have a theory that former players as color guys (the jockacracy as Howard Cosell would call them) have sell by date that doesn't extend anywhere near 28 years. Why do networks give then tenure? My guess is that they're being risk averse.
   21. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 09, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2975209)
Whatever his deficiencies, he's still smooth and personable, a known quantity. I'd prefer Al Leiter, though.
   22. KJOK Posted: October 09, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#2975261)
Agreed. McCarver was pretty good when he was fresh out of his playing days but, somewhere along the way, he acquired TOFS (Terminal Old Fart Syndrome).


McCarver was still sharp as recently as 1993, but it's been downhill since then.

I have a theory that former players as color guys (the jockacracy as Howard Cosell would call them) have sell by date that doesn't extend anywhere near 28 years. Why do networks give then tenure? My guess is that they're being risk averse.
I don't think it's just former players or color guys. It's also similar to Cosell himself, or Chris Berman. They become a 'personality', somewhat like a type-cast actor, and they don't even realize it. They no longer add anything new or insightful, just the same old lines.

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