And John D’Acquisto knows about heat…in more ways than one.
A biomechanical engineer would answer yes; he is tired and probably burned out from overwork. It happened to me after throwing 15,000 pitches from my debut in rookie league into my first full MLB season and I was a lot bigger than Tim by a good 45 pounds with harder stuff.
...The other problem is that the last time I was told, Tim’s Dad, Chris Lincecum, was his actual pitching coach and even San Francisco Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti is not allowed to speak with Tim about his motion. From my view, it looks though the creator of Tim’s motion, his Dad, is simply unable to solve his son’s problem or alleviate the pain being generated to his knee. Sort of a sticky wicket, if you ask me.
If I am paying someone $15 Million to pitch for my team and I have a rather experienced and successful major league pitcher who is my coach, the longtime coach of the staff, the only coach the pitcher has ever known at the major-league level, then Chris should allow Righetti to help out. The Lincecums really keep it close to the vest, which in my opinion can only lead to disaster.
None of these issues will ruin Tim or change the course of his career, if they are addressed now. Neglect may cause a major injury and set him back to some degree. However, you can expect him to strike out fewer batters, allow more free passes, and flash less power than in seasons past. A pitcher does not need God-like stuff to blank opposing lineups and win ballgames. The lack of a consistent changeup, however, will eventually add to his woes when it comes to getting out the elite hitters and teams that he will have to face going forward in 2012…The major questions remain. Is it too late to fix Timmy’s woes before the playoffs begin? More important, will he seek the proper help to analyze his motion and correct the problem? These are the issues that I see.
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1. Lassus Posted: June 26, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4166587)I don't ever remember having heard this to this extent. Locals, is this the case?
When it comes to Lincecum, I think it's just one of those things: some bodies have fewer good pitches in them than others. He might get back to peak form one day, but he was always small and has always trained very hard. It's possible that he just used himself up.
And, certainly it's possible we're witnessing the smashing-into-the-wall of Lincecum's career. But it's also possible we aren't. His strikeout rate remains quite healthy; the most notable thing about his stat line this year is the ridiculous BABIP, which would seem likely to come down.
Plus, his ERA is as terrible as it is because his outings have been woefully susceptible to the "one bad inning" syndrome, in which he just cannot extricate himself from trouble in one or two sequences, while mowing them down in nearly every other inning.
If I were the Giants, I'd have sat him down for a turn or two already this year, as I think he is a bit physically ragged and could probably benefit from a breather, and perhaps a more modulated workload going forward. Predicting pitcher is a fool's errand, so here I go: I don't think Lincecum is in fatal free-fall, but is instead going through the mid-career crisis that is very common in pitchers, especially hard-throwing starters. I think he'll come out of this as an effective pitcher, though never again the dominant force he was at his peak.
Nobody on: .248/.326/.382 (.324 BABIP), 1 BB per 10.1 PA, 1 K per 4.1 PA
Runners on: .184/.270/.290 (.236 BABIP), 1 BB per 11.0 PA, 1 K per 4.1 PA
This year, he's roughly the same guy from the windup (more K, fewer BB, higher ISO), but he's awful from the stretch:
Nobody on: .231/.302/.425 (.311 BABIP), 1 BB per 11.4 PA, 1 K per 3.4 PA
Runners on: .290/.399/.435 (.349 BABIP), 1 BB per 6.4 PA, 1 K per 5.7 PA
That's why he's having "one bad inning syndrome."
The excerpt above is the first I heard of "knee pain" as well.
I think you could even argue that the "runners on" issue is just small sample size, magnified by the leverage of pitching with runners on base. However, from watching games on TV, the pitches that are getting hit are really quite fat - literally grabbing too much plate for their velocity/movement.
Yes, and he's also given up some really bad walks in those rallies, such as the bases-loaded walk to Brandon Inge in the first inning on Friday night. None of those balls were close. You just cannot be doing stuff like that.
Both the fat pitch down the middle and the ball bouncing in the dirt are examples of erratic control, which is the root of his struggle. His stuff is still generally nasty, but not nasty enough to allow major lapses in location.
As for the sample size, K and BB rates stabilize very quickly (at least per the SABR writeup on DIPS). I doubt that we're looking at small-sample noise there.
The thing with Lincecum is he has such an established record of awesomeness it's not the same thing as seeing an unproven/relatively new pitcher like Nova or Arrieta going through a period of high BABIP and waiting to see if it will come down. Reading about possible knee pain makes this seem like something a bit more involved than bad luck.
Knee pain shouldn't lead to significantly different performance from the stretch though, I don't think.
*CBW being a huge Lincecum booster pre-draft.
And nobody knows enough about pitching to know whether having 45 extra lbs of muscle or fat or testes and/or harder stuff makes one more or less prone to overwork, injury, or anything else.
If the problem is with runners on perhaps he goes back to nibbling at the corners or whatever approach he takes that's not working. ANd he's worried about what happened last week in Milaukee and then he's making a mistake over the plate to someone he's not supposed to...
Just saying, assuming the most telling stat is the one with runners on, it could still be a mental issue. No way to really tell from the stat. record alone I dont think.
Also, Lincecum is 28, and raw athleticism tends to decline before baseball skills do. So this is pure speculation, but given the extreme nature of his windup and motion, he'd be particularly susceptible to just a little athletic decline.
But... I mostly agree with #17 that it could well be mental. I've watched him a lot this year, and he often looks like a basketcase in one inning only to be unhittable for the next three. The first inning is usually his worst. I think if he can get through the lineup the first time without allowing a run, it would do him a world of good. He's facing the Dodgers tomorrow and they haven't scored in 21 innings. It's a real good opportunity for him to get back on track.
Well, someone's slump will get busted; one way or the other.
Through 3, Lincecum has given up 2 hits (inc. a 2B to Billingsly), 1 BB and 3Ks. And singled and scored the first run!
"Chris Lincecum, his father, best friend and mentor, picked up the phone in his Seattle home. The two talked about everything else until finally discussing the event that could determine Tim Lincecum's fate." That questions his integrity and character,” Chris Lincecum said. “Those are fighting words to me.”
"The elder Lincecum believes it was more mechanical than anything, and gave Tim a few suggestions, as he has done throughout his career. Tim made some tweaks, with a little extra conditioning thrown in. Even when Tim was in the midst of his losing streak. Chris saw encouraging signs, and it all came to fruition in September, when Lincecum was 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA. October has been even better."
"Lincecum recorded a key victory in his final regular-season start, a 3-1, 11-strikeout win over Arizona. Three days later, on the final day of the season, they clinched the NL West title with a 3-0 win over the Padres. Chris Lincecum was at AT&T Park in San Francisco, and was allowed into the chaotic clubhouse celebration."
“All in all his mechanics are (as some people have referred to as freakish or un-orthodox) like the old-time pitchers in the 30?s and 40?s and early fifties. Example: Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Satchel Paige, Bob Feller. Carl Hubbell, Juan Marichal… "
"Those athletes" didn’t throw with just there arms and shoulders as probably 70% or more have been doing for the last 40+ years. Those pitchers don’t last for more than 4 to 7 years and usually throw their elbows or shoulders out. Sad thing is that they become pitching coaches and open clinics and teach their mechanics to the children (charging ridiculous fees) addressing their mechanics as “the Pro way” of doing it (after all, all you have to do is watch a game on T.V. and see that most major leaguers are using the muscle-method way of throwing, therefore confirming it), thus creating less than efficient throwers, for the next generation, who in turn throw their arms out and usually can’t understand why. Just watching these types of poor mechanics makes me cringe with pain. Pitching is a position that can be taught to almost anybody, but throwing properly is an art and needs to be respected and constantly adjusted due to growth and muscle development and aging. I love it the most in all sports.”
Chris Lincecum
You tell me, do you see were he worked with Raghetti in any of these interviews and quotes and do you see any kudos to Rahgetti for helping him in any article or interview you see and read. The answer is "NO" and Steve Treder it looks like you are wrong...
2) You talked to Righetti about Lincecum in 2008- almost four years ago. How do you know things haven't changed since then?
3) I also never see interviews where Cain, Romo, Bumgarner or any other Giants pitcher gives kudos to Righetti-not just Lincecum.
From: http://thecutoffman.mlblogs.com/2012/06/24/when-aces-struggle-is-tim-lincecum-having-a-historically-bad-season/#more-711
Hey, you may well we correct regarding Lincecum and Righetti. All I can say is that I haven't heard anything like that in recent years. But it's certain you've forgotten more about the interaction between pitchers and pitching coaches than I will ever learn.
It's a WAG but I'd assume if that was true a likely reason could be that larger pitchers tend to be quite thick set with tree trunks for legs and I would assume they are able to generate the same power while using their arm less compared to lighter/smaller pitchers.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_07_03_sfnmlb_wasmlb_1&mode=wrap&partnerId=LR_wrap#gid=2012_07_03_sfnmlb_wasmlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=sf
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