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Friday, July 04, 2014

John McGrath: Acquiring Cano not the only move that helped turn the Mariners around | John McGrath | The News Tribune

Is he lucky or good?

A final stat: The combined 2014 salaries for Jones, Elias, Morrison, Beimel and Young add up to $4.85 million, or about $850,000 more than the average big league player earns per season.

Zduriencik has taken flak for trades that disappointed (starting pitcher Cliff Lee to the Rangers for a prospect package centered around Smoak) and signing expensive free agents who turned out to be worthless (Chone Figgins, $35 million for four years of bad vibes).

But Zduriencik’s ability to patch a flawed team with bargain-basement acquisitions could do more than save his job.

It might establish his legacy.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 04, 2014 at 08:50 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners

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   1. bookbook Posted: July 04, 2014 at 11:28 AM (#4743173)
It's better to be lucky than good.

That said, some of Z's "good" moves haven't panned out: signing Corey Hart, trying Scott Baker, etc. Maybe if you throw enough crap at the wall, some will stick.

Also, James Jones isn't a star. Being above replacement level at a place where the M's prefer black holes is a big plus.
   2. PASTE does not get put on waivers in August Posted: July 04, 2014 at 01:48 PM (#4743293)
The Mariners are on track to post a 97-win Pythag this year, a whopping 30-win improvement over last year. I hadn't realized they'd improved THAT much. There's been no dramatic decline in the quality of the division; the Rangers have stumbled, but the A's are still awesome, the Angels are still respectable and the Astros aren't the Disastros anymore.
   3. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 04, 2014 at 02:35 PM (#4743343)
The Mariners are on track to post a 97-win Pythag this year, a whopping 30-win improvement over last year. I hadn't realized they'd improved THAT much.


They haven't improved quite that much. Their pythag is overstated because they've run good in scoring/preventing runs, and their opponent strength is slightly lower than average. Their third order win percentage is almost identical to their actual win percentage, and extrapolates to 89 wins.

Still a big improvement. I attribute it all to Cano, baseballs first 22 WAR player!
   4. Joe Kehoskie Posted: July 04, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4743373)
and the Astros aren't the Disastros anymore.

They're not?
   5. madvillain Posted: July 04, 2014 at 03:48 PM (#4743386)
That said, some of Z's "good" moves haven't panned out: signing Corey Hart, trying Scott Baker, etc. Maybe if you throw enough crap at the wall, some will stick.


No kidding, rumor is they are about to trade for Dayan Viciedo. Throwing some more ish at the wall.
   6. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 04, 2014 at 06:13 PM (#4743613)
and the Astros aren't the Disastros anymore.

They're not?


BP's 3rd order win percentage for Astros is .458, a 70
win pace. This is for season to date, obviously they are better than that now.

And for the future, from BPs debate on whether Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa is the #1 prospect in baseball.

No prospect in baseball possesses a higher ceiling than Carlos Correa, a potential perennial All-Star at shortstop. Not only will the Astros build their roster around him for years to come, but he could one day be the face of Major League Baseball. To get a quick idea of the type of player Correa could become: Prognosticators are invoking the names of generational talents such as Alex Rodriguez and Troy Tulowitzki when making player comparisons for Correa. The hype is well deserved, as Correa checks off all the boxes one would expect from the game’s top prospect.
   7. McCoy Posted: July 04, 2014 at 06:22 PM (#4743620)
I get that Carlos is young and a SS but one) is he likely to be a major league SS and two) he's still in A ball and three) Kris Bryant looks like he'll be the next Jim Thome. A lot of things have to go right for Carlos to surpass that.
   8. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 04, 2014 at 09:21 PM (#4743693)
I get that Carlos is young and a SS but one) is he likely to be a major league SS and two) he's still in A ball and three) Kris Bryant looks like he'll be the next Jim Thome. A lot of things have to go right for Carlos to surpass that.


I don't doubt you, but really don't care about the endless circle jerk in articles like the BP one trying to argue one super prospect is better than another. For the Astros, the key point is they've got a lot of young talent coming up over the next 3-4 years. Carlos is just currently their most impressive prospect (albeit with a broken leg at moment). If they really are the 70 win team their 2014 performance indicates, they are in great shape for the future.

And the Cubs 3rd order win percentage is .491, believe it or not. By 3rd order, the Cubs & Astros are actually the 5th and 4th biggest underachievers from expected wins this season.

   9. McCoy Posted: July 04, 2014 at 09:31 PM (#4743702)
I brought it up in another thread but as well as the Cubs are doing this year they really won't be able to build on it next year. I mean they'll be able to put prospects on the field but it is unlikely they'll fill all the holes they have and will have with players leaving and have those young players play better than the players are doing now.
   10. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:29 AM (#4743788)
I brought it up in another thread but as well as the Cubs are doing this year they really won't be able to build on it next year. I mean they'll be able to put prospects on the field but it is unlikely they'll fill all the holes they have and will have with players leaving and have those young players play better than the players are doing now.


It will be easy. They are the Cubs, a big revenue club, they will just go out into the FA market and ... LOL...
   11. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 08, 2014 at 07:22 PM (#4746594)
Just got around to this;

2013 Mariners:

OPS+ 98
ERA+ 87

2014 Mariners:

OPS+ 93
ERA+ 119

2013 Mariners ERA/FIP: 4.31/3.89
2014 Mariners ERA/FAP: 3.16/3.67

OK, wow, that's a 1.15 drop in team ERA that seems 90% driven by increasing outs of balls in play

2013 Mariners dWAR -9.3
2014 Mariners dWAR 0.9

the 2013 offenders were Ibanez -2.6, Morse -2.0 and Smoak -1.5

Smoak was still around for part of this year, and at -0.6
but Morse is gone, and Saunders has moved to RF where he's positive (in CF he'd been -1.1), Jones is in CF and he's a little bit better than Saunders was there...
Ibanez has been replaced by Ackley whose at +0.4.

Seager seems to have gone from negative to positive...

If I saw a pitcher's h/9 drop by 1.5 with no change in Ks or HR I'd assume it was a transitory BABIP fluke, but here we're talking about an entire team after nearly 800 IP-
it has got to be the defense driving most of this

more evidence: 2013 Mariners gave up 315 doubles in 6257 PAs
2014 Mariners have given up 108 doubles in 3242 PAs

GB/FB rate is very slightly DOWN this year from last, LD% is UP slightly

The overwhelming factor contributing to this stunning turnaround seems to be not just defense but outfield defense.




   12. rlc Posted: July 08, 2014 at 09:56 PM (#4746674)
So you're saying removing Raul Ibañez from the outfield caused the outfield defense to improve? Stop the presses!
   13. base ball chick Posted: July 08, 2014 at 09:58 PM (#4746675)
PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 04, 2014 at 01:48 PM (#4743293)

The Mariners are on track to post a 97-win Pythag this year, a whopping 30-win improvement over last year. I hadn't realized they'd improved THAT much. There's been no dramatic decline in the quality of the division; the Rangers have stumbled, but the A's are still awesome, the Angels are still respectable and the Astros aren't the Disastros anymore.


- oh yes, they are
and they STILL have the worst record in the MAJOR LEAGUES

3rd order win percentage???
are you freaking kidding me?

and carlos correa is in A ball - call me when he can kill at least AAA pitching. so he can be a ML star!~!!! like jon singleton
   14. Baldrick Posted: July 09, 2014 at 12:06 AM (#4746733)
The Mariners are on track to post a 97-win Pythag this year, a whopping 30-win improvement over last year. I hadn't realized they'd improved THAT much. There's been no dramatic decline in the quality of the division; the Rangers have stumbled, but the A's are still awesome, the Angels are still respectable and the Astros aren't the Disastros anymore.

I'm as shocked as anyone else. But I do have to chime in and say that the M's have been outrageously 'lucky' in terms of clumping positive stuff together and scattering negative stuff. Their components don't suggest anything like the run differential they've actually produced.

Their true quality probably does match up reasonably well with their current win percentage, and less with their pythag. But still...I'll take their current win percentage!

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