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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

John Smoltz weighs in on Jake Arrieta’s move to the bullpen

This

However Arrieta is used, Smoltz said it isn’t easy to switch from pitching every fifth day to having to be ready to enter a game in an unknown situation at a moment’s notice.

“It’s not as easy as people think,” he said. “I don’t think every starter in the history of the game could just transition into being a reliever just because they had good stuff.”

oy, and other stuff…

...“Whether you have your stuff or not, you’ve got to believe you do [when you come out of the bullpen],” Smoltz said. “You’re not given much freedom to make mistakes. As a starter, you can not have your stuff and recoup it in the fourth inning and your team can bail you out.

“Everyone just assumes that coming out of the bullpen, everyone’s going to have their best stuff, because they don’t have to throw as much. It’s not always the case. So you have to almost fake it sometimes and get through it.”

...Or, as Smoltz said, pitching in relief when your team is already losing can present a good time for a pitcher to take some risks and work without the same pressure as starting or coming in to protect a lead. (Arrieta has yet to work out of the pen, so his role hasn’t been completely defined, but he’d obviously be more suited to long relief.)

“In this case it just sounds like he’s in a pretty good funk, and this is going to help get him out of the funk by depressurizing,” Smoltz said.

Repoz Posted: June 13, 2012 at 04:51 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: orioles, sabermetrics

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   1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: June 13, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4156002)
Why are they moving Arrieta to the pen? I thought he was doing a swell job.
   2. rlc Posted: June 13, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4156010)
I thought he was doing a swell job.


The swelling in Matusz's nose has forced Arrieta back into the rotation.
   3. Gotham Dave Posted: June 13, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4156019)
Moving to the pen is hard! So I assume the only reason it was so easy for Smoltz is because he's just that awesome.

The fact that he had even less trouble moving back to the rotation a few years later, and was more valuable, is probably evidence that this is a dumb move. Although I can't blame the O's at this point for wondering if Arrieta will ever put it together as a starter.

And as tfc noted, he's starting tonight, so, wow, that was fast.
   4. Davo Mastroianni Posted: June 13, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4156020)
Why are they moving Arrieta to the pen? I thought he was doing a swell job.

Well, that depends on what stats you're looking at.

The Orioles see a guy who's 2 and 8 with a 6.32 era. That sucks.

The Stat people see a guy with 8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, who's been unbelievably unlucky on BABIP and HR/FB. His xFIP is 3.74 (12th best in the AL...right between Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson).
   5. Joey B. has ignited his October #Natitude Posted: June 13, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4156036)
Turns out that Arrieta will be starting again tonight because Matsuz has a mashed-up nose or something and has been scratched.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 13, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4156039)
Turns out that Arrieta will be starting again tonight because Matsuz has a mashed-up nose or something and has been scratched.

Matusz bunted into his face.
   7. Greg (U)K Posted: June 13, 2012 at 06:42 PM (#4156050)
Matusz bunted into his face.

First AJ Burnett now this!
The only logical strategy is to ban your pitchers from swinging or bunting while at bat.
   8. Kurt Posted: June 13, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4156056)
The only logical strategy is to ban your pitchers from swinging or bunting while at bat.

That strategy would have saved Alexi Ogando a trip to the DL also.
   9. DKDC Posted: June 13, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4156058)
The problem with Arrieta is that he seems to have completely lost confidence and has been nibbling with poor results.

If he can't have a decent outing against the Pirates lineup (.279 team obp), then the pen really is his only hope.
   10. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: June 13, 2012 at 07:11 PM (#4156059)
The only logical strategy is to ban your pitchers from swinging or bunting while at bat.

I often want my team to do this when there's a runner on base and no outs. Sometimes the "intentional strikeout" is superior to any chance of a double play.
   11. Curse of the Andino Posted: June 13, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4156107)
The problem with Arrieta is that he seems to have completely lost confidence and has been nibbling with poor results.


Yeah, it's absolutely confidence. Also seems (without looking), that the bullpen hasn't helped much with inherited runners. He's off to a good start today (6ks in three innings), but... against the Pirates.
   12. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: June 13, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4156119)
And people complain about the DH. Sheesh.
   13. Tripon Posted: June 13, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4156121)
Because if you're going to protect the pitcher, forcing him to pitch to what is likely a good hitter is probably not the best way to do it.
   14. Mattbert Posted: June 13, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4156246)
Arrieta's line against those mighty Buccos: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K.

That's a statement, I'd say.
   15. ugen64 Posted: June 13, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4156283)
It looks like bad luck at first glance, but along with confidence, Arrieta has also been horrible pitching from the stretch this season. His FIP is 3.57 with the bases empty but 5.12 with men on base. If you look at the league as a whole, the average FIP is 3.84 with the bases empty and 4.15 with men on base, so his split is considerably worse in that regard. Today, he left 8/9 runners stranded, which hasn't been the case in the majority of his performances so far.
   16. Mattbert Posted: June 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4156604)
That's interesting stuff, mate. Nice work.

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