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What numbers does he think show his best years were in KC?
FYI here are his seasons by WAR...
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/21/2011.
I will continue to insist he doesn't go in, 3,000 or not.
I will continue to insist he isn't in, even if he is.
Which made me think: Johnny Damon has had an excellent career. And so has Omar Vizquel -- who will not, however, be playing in 2015. So... 3,000 hits is still pretty meaningful?
I mean you have to get all the way down to Baines at 2866 before finding the first guy with no PED/gambling issue that isn't in the Hall.
And I can't see how a major milestone is enough to turn a guy that otherwise would be lucky to stay on the ballot for more than a few seasons into one who gets elected. No one has ever thought of Damon as a Hall of Famer during his professional career. I don't think 3,000 hits changes that for 3/4 of the electorate.
Oh absolutely. I'd say 3 or 4 years, minimum. I think it could be one hell of an interesting discussion though.
This comment will probably be null and void if the Rays can start contending again while Damon is still there.
Throws like Mary.
Acts like Judas.
Fantasizes like Aldo Nova.
It depends where you place him against Brock (a HoFer for the SBs and postseason record more than the hits). Otherwise, by far. Everyone else is a pretty obvious Hall of Famer.
A WAR score 10 points higher? More WAR? His WAR is 10 bigger? You get the idea.
A similar thing worked for Nolan Ryan. Revered as he is today, back in 1989 or so when he signed with the Rangers he had 4775 career strikeouts, but "only" 273 wins, and the articles on him were "Nolan Ryan, HOFer or merely freak of nature?" It was very much an open question--he was a .500ish pitcher who happened to strike out lots of guys but wasn't a big "winner". He was viewed much in the same way Bert Blyleven was viewed for so long. Since Ryan had a second peak with the Rangers and flew past both 300 wins and 5000 strikeouts, within 5 years he was a legend.
If Johnny Damon passes 3000 hits and 1800 runs it means he will be productive for another 2-3 years, which means there's plenty of time for writers to wake up, realize he's on the cusp of reaching some "automatic" goals and the trend of the articles will be from questioning whether he's a HOFer, to explaining why a guy who helped break The Curse and was an electric lead-off man for 20 years with no steroid accusations should be in the HOF, all the way to declaring him a no-brainer.
With the proliferation of advanced statistics any change in Damon's image won't be as dramatic as it was for Ryan (nevermind that Damon doesn't have anything as flashy as 5000 K's or 7 no-hitters to hang his hat on) but it will still be there and with 3000+ hits he will sail into the Hall, although probably closer to the 75% cutoff than to 100% (like Yount did, and Biggio will).
The great thing is, Johnny Damon can buy a ticket one day and enter the Hall wearing a Red Sox cap, go back the next day and buy another ticket wearing a Yankee cap, and then go back a third day and buy a ticket wearing a Royals cap.
uhm...hmmm...interesting. I was going to quibble, but I see the Chicago White Sox are closer to a playoff spot than the Rays. But really, If Longoria wern't underperforming and they had a tad more help from the bottom of the line-up, I'd like their chances better.
And right now, Damon's OPS+ is better than 10 of his 17 years.
I recognize there was a decided change of opinion on Nolan, but there's no way in hell Nolan is any way comparable to Johnny Damon. The 7 no-hitters and all-time strikeout record all make him decidedly different than Johnny Damon, whose Hall of Fame case will rest entirely on 3,000 hits and playing for two World Series winners. I suspect 3,000 will be enough to keep him on the ballot instead of falling off, but there's no way he's going in on the first ballot, and I firmly doubt he ever goes in through the BBWAA. Hell, I won't be surprised if Biggio doesn't go in on the first ballot, and he actually deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
I don't believe there are any automatic tickets. Milestones can grease the skids for the deserving, but until we see an otherwise undeserving player make the Hall solely on the basis of a single milestone, I'm going to be skeptical it will be enough to reverse longheld opinion on a player's Cooperstown worthiness.
Just more evidence he's not a HOFer.
And if they'd use any one of the fifteen outfield prospects they have tearing up the minors instead of Sam Fuld....
Pedro Martinez
Curt Schilling
Johnny Damon
Kevin Youkilis
David Ortiz
Jason Varitek
Manny Ramirez
I was with you until you got to "he will sail into the Hall." Damon's no one's idea of a clear HOFer, and plenty of voters are going to need persuading. Agree with SOSH in 32. I think Damon's a lot more like Don Sutton than Ryan, especially if Sutton had barely made it past 300 wins. Even with 324 wins it took Sutton five years to get voted in. Imagine if he had juuust squeaked over the magic number, as I assume Damon will--if he makes it at all. In that case Sutton might well have waiting at least five more years, and I don't think it's impossible that he wouldn't have made the Hall.
As other people noted, and was raised in earlier threads, it's the numbers that go with 3000 hits: 1800 runs, 3000 games played, that'll probably push Damon over.
I don't think he was even that. I think he's been GOOD overall for a long, long time. Being very, very good I rate as only being a step down from elite and he certainly wasn't that.
He's enjoyed a ton of advantages in his career: high profile markets, high profile playoff games, offensive era, offensive ballparks and yet he's never really performed like an elite player besides for maybe one season or been thought of one. Kudos to him for his longevity and consistency getting hits but a B- to B player isn't an hall of famer no matter his threshold achievements.
So you're saying that Damon is getting hall of fame discussion because he's very, very famous? I think he's been topical purely because of his high hit total and how high it might climb rather than because he's been famous. During his "overexposed" stints with the Yankees and Red Sox, when he was at the height of his fame, he wasn't thought of as a hall of famer.
I wonder if the perception of him would be different among scribes like Kurkjian, who was down on Damon's candidacy, if his home runs against the Yankees in game 7 didn't come in the ALCS but in the World Series. Maybe he wouldn't be a Morris like cause celebre for primetime gamer folks but maybe close.
If Damon gets 3,000, of course he's going in. 2,950 would probably be enough.
Nolan Ryan may not have been respected buy the SABR community (in one of his early books, Bill James predicted he would have a career losing record) but the establishment LOVED him, although it didn't show up on Cy Young voting (what,no "he can't pitch to the score arguments"?). I remember seeing ESPN Sports Reporters after he was elected elected and the other guys were ribbing Bill Conlin, who didn't vote for him. And Conlin wasn't offering any defense, just shrugging his shoulder. Of course there was a whole 15 year period where ripping the Mets for bad trades whose mandatory, and Ryan and others for Fregosi was always mentioned.
Because the timing is going to be weird, I imagine there will be some mistakes made in admitting players who have passed benchmarks. But I also think that those mistakes are most likely to be made by the writers instead of the veterans. By the time that Johnny Damon, say, gets taken up by the vets, assuming that he does not pass the BBWAA, the benchmark issue is likely to have settled down considerably. The BBWAA will no longer be reacting automatically to the benchmarks, and the vets will follow that lead. His best chance, since he's at best a borderline candidate, is to catch the writers before they adjust to all this.
Therefore, I think Damon's (and Vizquel's) best chance is with the writers.
I also think that looking at career WAR without context is a lousy way to look at this, because career WAR is subject to the illusions of long schedules and long careers, which are two of the same illusions that are going to plague the automatic benchmark crowd. I think you're going to have to look at WAR in the context of ordinals. That is, among his contemporaries, where does Lou Brock rank in terms of WAR? Does Johnny Damon rank as highly among his contemporaries? How are you going to adjust that for there being more teams in Johnny's time than there were in Lou's? Without making those adjustments, WAR is going to be misleading, as are career Win Shares or any other career counting stat, no matter how uber.
I also think that this process is going to be hard and emotional, because it involves lots of context decisions, rather than relying on round numbers, which is much easier (which is probably why they started getting used in the first place). I don't really envy HoF voters the next decade of their jobs. - Brock Hanke
I never understood Royals fans enmity towards Damon. He did what he was told, never publicly demanded a trade, and rejected what sounded like a below market deal from the team. Its not his fault the team branded him as "the next George Brett" and its not his fault they got a shitty return in the trade for him.
I just don't see it happening for him unless he just keeps going and blows away 3,000. I think he'll get more support than he should/would without 3,000 hits but I don't think he gets in or really even gets close.
The other problem is a borderline Johnny Damon is not going to be getting the support that guys like Rice or Blyleven got. He doesn't have a fan base that adores him and he doesn't have a case that is going to create a Lederer-like advocacy.
After he hit his 500th double I had someone I know tell me he should be a HOFer. He also tried to tell me that Biggio shouldn't. I was going to mention that Biggio had more than 600 doubles, but I know better than to get into baseball arguments with most people.
You shouldn't hang out with so many sportswriters, AJM.
Couldn't you have just said it, then added that something on the stove was burning and quickly hung up the phone?
I'm seeing a connection here.
I suspect the answer is nothing more profound than "he entered his 30s." He's a high energy player who crashes into anything that doesn't move (and in the case of Damian Jackson at least one thing that did move). During his time with the Sox it seemed like he would often pick up a little pull of some kind. He avoided the DL but just would need to odd day off here and there.
- John has a high WARtermark of 5.6, 5 years between 4.2 and 5.2, 8 between 2 and 3.3, 7 between 1 and 2, and then 7 years of 1 or lower, total of 59.
- Damon has a high of 6.6, 5 years between 4.4 and 4.9, 5 between 2 and 3.7, 4 between 1 and and 2 (including this year at the moment), and 2 of less than 1, career 50.6.
So, a relatively low peak for someone getting talked about for the Hall, but longevity at a quality level to get near a statistical landmark (John finished with 288 wins). Right now John played in many more seasons, but a couple of solid fullish-time years from Damon essentially make up that difference. I wouldn't squawk if Damon ended up in the Hall, but John never got above 32% on the ballot. If Damon actually gets 3000, it gets more complicated, but it's still the same career shape, there's just a couple more 2s and maybe a 3 thrown in, season-wise.
It's the "second peak" stuff that really cemented Ryan as a legend. Which isn't to say that certain statistical benchmarks didn't play a prominent role (most notably, the 5000th strikeout), but the truly important part is that he met those milestones in a captivating fashion rather than wheezing toward them in a steady decline. Ryan was a national phenomenon from 1989-93 or so because he was an old fart who could flirt with a no-hitter any old time, while pitching an occasional Advil for pain. Johnny Damon might or might not soldier on to 3000 hits, but it's going to take an insane hitting streak or something like that to approach something even close to what Ryan gained from his second peak.
And don't forget some serious Ventura Ropin'.
Yes, Damon is worse than all but (maybe) one of that group. But he's famous, was a key part of two WS champions, and has been considered a very good player. In addition to 3,000 H he'll have 400+ SBs at a good success rate, 550+ doubles, ~250 HR from a guy who primarily hit leadoff, top 20 alltime in runs scored, etc.
There may come a time when someone makes it to 3,000 hits who doesn't get elected (say, if someone like Garret Anderson had managed to limp there) but I see almost no chance that person is Damon.
(emphasis mine)
I think this is the key thing. The perception of Damon is just that; "very good." I don't think anyone out there is beating the drum to say he's great and the non-3,000 hit numbers are not of such genius that they are likely to sway anyone. 400 steals, 550 doubles, 250 HR, these are all good totals certainly but there is nothing there that is going to motivate people to vote for him. Unlike say Brock with the steals there is no "hook" for Damon.
I think he settles into a 20-30% range and stays there for 15 years. He will be the Kingman of 3,000 hit guys (if he gets there).
So the question for Damon really can't be answered, because we don't know how long he can go on. He doesn't have much speed or strengh to lose - he just produces a .360 OBP like clockwork. That's his only skill. There was this other guy named Rose who had a similar skill set (Johnny Damon is his #1 comp through age 36.)
He may go on doing it for just one more year, he may do it for 10 years.
Where he falls on that spectrum will really determine how the voters and we see him. If he somehow like Rose keeps tacking on even mediocre offensive seasons for another 7-8 years, he'll be making a clear run at Musial, Aaron, Speaker for top 5 all-time in hits, and an outside shot at being the all-time runs scored leader.
And he'll have 400 steals, probably close to 300 homers, 1500 RBIs, and probably another pennant.
And although his WAR may only roll up to say, 55 or 60 (putting him decidedly on the fringe of outfielder HOF numbers), how would he not be a Hall of Famer?
This is of course just my opinion, but I think most current voters, faced with a guy who reached a major milestone, are going to have to be convinced (or convince themselves) that he *doesn't* belong. For a guy who isn't a no-brainer alltime great, I think the milestone flips the default position.
According to "Fever Pitch", he has the Best Ass in Baseball. That should count for something too.
No -- he might be now, but at the time he was regarded as a lot better than that. You have to remember that Brock was only the 13th player in history to 3,000 hits, plus he retired with the single-season and career stolen-base records. Add to that his dominating performance across 3 World Series and star role on some of the most famous teams of his era, and he was considered a no-question Hall of Famer.
Depends on your definition of "hard time" I guess. I think your 3-5 years is a decent estimate (I think the longer side of that) but I think if 3000 hits + 570 homers requires a few years then 3000 hits + 250 homers is a tougher sell. I tend to be a bit pessimistic about the BBWAA though. I think Biggio won't be a first ballot guy either which is ridiculous of course.
I'm sure it bolsters one of our cases to point out that Don Sutton took five years to get in. Off the cuff I feel like he might be a reasonable comp for Damon's case with the milestone but not a lot of peak.
I think Damon is going to be hurt by his lack of affiliation. I noted above that he's not going to really have anyone shilling for him. I don't think any team or fan base has a strong affinity for him and unlike Blyleven (or Raines soon) there is not likely to be a sabermetric community outpouring for him.
One of the things that the sabermetric revolution brought about, pretty much in the teeth of 1980s strategies, at the same time that stolen-base season totals started to appear in box scores, was the thinking-fan's devaluation of the stolen base. When Brock was active, home run totals were considered extremely important, and as a kind of counterweight to that, people would admire high SB totals, figuring that a guy who could steal 50 bases a year, if not truly as valuable as someone who could hit 50 HR a year, was much of the way there. People did think of him as great.
Molitor may also be a good comp for Damon (and I suspect part of this is the small market Brewers getting hurt in my memory more than anything). I will agree that if Damon pushes himself to 3200+ hits he's likely to go but I'm envisioning him sort of squeaking across the line ~3050 hits or so.
Perry, comment #69, has Lou's rep, when elected, about right, except that Perry forgot about the famous leadoff man power. Remember, when you're looking at Lou's stats, that there is an awful lot of gas taken out by the time period. You need to put that gas, including some bonus hits and runs, back in there. WAR attempts to do this, and may be correct. The uberstats also expose Lou's poor defense, which was not taken as being that bad when he played.
- Brock Hanke
I see him going in if he makes it to 3,000. That will magically qualify him for, yes, I think 3/4 of the electorate.
I thought he had a pretty bad reputation on defense. He was before my time, so I'm going on what Bill James has written about him. Looking at his record, his range factor per 9 was essentially average. And his TZ on range is -4 over his career - about a quarter run per season. His negative fielding runs come from outfield throwing - a category I use which would be better described as baserunner advancement prevention. Lou made a ton of errors, and this is the stat where OF errors show up, assuming that they are of the single/outfielder boots the ball/runners advance variety, which are much more common than dropped flyball errors.
I can understand how observers can miss a bad fielder who doesn't make plays - like Derek Jeter. But when your bad defense is primarily coming from ridiculously high error totals - Lou was in double digits almost every year with a high of 19 - observers aren't usually as forgiving.
Well, should he get to 3,000 hits, we can settle this with one of them BBRef sponsorship wager things the kids all seem to like.
I think he's getting to 3,000. So I'm happy to do a bb-ref sponsorship now, as a warm-up, if you disagree (do you?) that he'll get to 3,000.
He's vastly unqualified on the merits, though. Career 105 OPS+! I had no idea it was that low, would have guessed 120 at least. And little-to-no value on defense and baserunning.
A year ago, I'd have said no. Now, I tend to think he'll get there. Moreover, I want him to get there, just to see which one of us is correct.
But, considering how long we'll have to wait for that other bet to be determined (at least 8-9 years for you to win and even longer before I might claim it), then what the hell. Sure, I'll take the no side just to keep us reminded of the bigger question to come.
Done.
He made it patently clear long before he was FA eligible that he was gettin' the H-E-double-toothpicks outta Dodge as soon as he was free to do so. Of course he's a Boras guy, so maybe that was all Boras blowing, but he sure never made an effort to indicate a desire to do anything otherwise.
Wouldn't it make more sense to get an annual membership? Of course, it's not like Damon couldn't afford all those one day tickets, but you don't have to wait in line and there's also the cool magazine.
Not that anyone can blame him. Its pretty clear that Damon staying in KC does not turn that franchise into a successful one.
Defense I'll give you, as whatever value he has from catching baseballs is offset by his inability to throw them. But baserunning? I'm got him at +132 runs - 73 from stealing and taking extra bases, 46 from never hitting into a double play, and +13 for reaching on error, which is particularly impressive for a lefthanded hitter.
Damon is pretty much the equal of Ichiro on the bases.
And not even as OBP-heavy (.350ish) as you'd want to see from a guy like that.
The Royals had a pretty nice young nucleus at about that time, too. Damon, Dye and Beltran in the outfield, Sweeney at first. Damon was the first to approach free agency, so he was the one that broke up the band.
In retrospect, it was obviously the right move for Damon to leave. And the Royals weren't in a position to keep that group together even if he had wanted to stay. But having a great young core, then losing all of them for little or no return has a way of making you feel irrationally bitter.
That second 1989 MVP for Yount was pretty much a lucky fluke Admittedly it was a very close vote, but he still got more first place votes than anyone, despite the fact that he didn't lead the league in RBI or any other category, and his Brewers finished 4th that year.
As do I. In order for him to be the first "clean" player to 3,000 hits not to get elected, there would have to be some Other Stuff counterweighing the 3,000 hits, as there was with Kingman and the 400 HRs. But Damon's Other Stuff boosts his candidacy -- key protagonist in The Rivalry; excellent baserunner -- by AROM's numbers and reputation (**); overall likeability.
(**) And a ready-to-order proxy for the lazy -- his taking third base on the infield hit in Game 4 2009 WS.
Isn't that a common reaction when your employer indicates they aren't interested in paying the market rate for your service?
Heh, I'm somewhere between idiot and lazy. I misread 393 SB as 303, and figured 101 CS and a success rate of two-thirds was no great shakes. Duh, that's 101 CS / 494 attempts not 101/303, and of course is just under 80%. Thanks for the catch.
Is that number for GIDP value opportunity-adjusted, or a function that he mostly batted leadoff for fewer opportunities?
BBref has Damon at 89 career batting RAR. So we are saying that Damon has created considerably more career value by running than by hitting? He might actually be borderline Hall-worthy on the merits, and amusingly on merits that will have nothing to do with why he'll actually get votes.
If he holds steady for the remainder of this season, he'll end around .270 with a dozen homers and a dozen steals. He hits LHP's well enough that he doesn't need to be platooned, and can still occasionally play LF if called upon. And his current contract is somewhere around 5M. Someone will sign him to another one for that level of production.
Back when Damon was with Boston, I went to a game with a female friend and she made the same observation, so there must be something to it...
Whereas assuming 2,950-2,999 hits, I'd be stunned if he sees a second.
BTW, all the way back in Post 3, TerpNats noted that JD was giving the finger to both evil empires. I suspect it's more likely that he doesn't want to offend either empire (and lose supporters for his HoF case), thus he makes the safe choice in KC, based on my impression of him since he left Boston.
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