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Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Jon Daniels admits ‘some frustration’ at off-season, says marquee addition might not be on horizon

Daniels’ range…usurped mountain to climb.

On if the offseason has been a failure to this point:

Listen, I think we set our goals pretty high this winter. I don’t believe in settling. If you don’t get the guy you want, you don’t just naturally move down the list until you get one that you do. The bottom line is there are guys that you want and guys that, at some point, you just draw a line and say, ‘I’d rather just go with our own.’ But no doubt, we were in on Greinke. We would’ve liked to have had him, but it didn’t work out. We were interested in bringing Josh back, didn’t work out. But beyond that, we’re involved in a lot of stuff, some of which was rumored and was accurate, some of which wasn’t. Outside of Soria, obviously, we haven’t made any sort of real impact acquisitions so far. Is there some frustration? Sure. We’re competitors too, and this is the time of year we try to do what we do. But we’ve got to step back and say, ‘We genuinely like our team.’ I like the core, I like some of the young players we’re going to add in. Is it perfect? No. Are there areas to upgrade? Yeah. But there’s also still opportunities to do that this winter, this spring, this season. And I’m excited about watching some of these guys play and seeing where we go. I think there’s still time for us to add some pieces. I don’t know that there’s going to be the marquee press conference with a big splash, but I’m not sure if that what we really need, either.

Repoz Posted: December 18, 2012 at 06:40 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rangers

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   1. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 18, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4327519)
I'm sure Michael Bourn would listen if you called.

(Full disclosure: I had Bourn going to the Rangers in the free agent prediction thingy.)
   2. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4327541)
Barring a trade there really isn't a marquee signing to be made anymore is there? Bourn would be a nice get for them but when I think "marquee" he is not a guy I think of.
   3. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4327546)
Barring a trade there really isn't a marquee signing to be made anymore is there? Bourn would be a nice get for them but when I think "marquee" he is not a guy I think of.

Yeah, there were only 2 marquee guys available. They have the trade chits for a blockbuster if they choose to go that way, though.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4327562)

Yeah, there were only 2 marquee guys available. They have the trade chits for a blockbuster if they choose to go that way, though.


Yeah, Andrus or Profar for a star OF seems like a no brainer.

If I were Daniels I'd be dangling Profar to get Giancarlo Stanton.
   5. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM (#4327573)
I wonder if the Diamondbacks had held onto Chris Young what they could get for him now.
   6. The Good Face Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4327603)
Yeah, Andrus or Profar for a star OF seems like a no brainer.

If I were Daniels I'd be dangling Profar to get Giancarlo Stanton.


I don't think Andrus gets you a star outfielder, or at least doesn't get you one who doesn't come with a ton of question marks (Ellsbury?). He's a good player, but not a great one and he's going to get very expensive in 2 years.

Profar for Stanton would be a ballsy move; not sure either side makes that trade. If you believe Profar can be a 3-4 win player right away, I think you have to keep him. Stanton's arb eligible in 2014, and he won't come cheap.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4327614)
Profar for Stanton would be a ballsy move; not sure either side makes that trade. If you believe Profar can be a 3-4 win player right away, I think you have to keep him. Stanton's arb eligible in 2014, and he won't come cheap.

I don't count on anyone being a 3+ WAR player right away, especially not a 20 y.o.

And Stanton is a 5+ WAR player, and only 23. Any deal would require Texas to lock Stanton up long-term. Think he'd sign a 10/150 contract?
   8. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4327622)
I would think that Stanton is about a million times more valuable than Profrar, even if he's due for a pay raise.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4327624)
I would think that Stanton is about a million times more valuable than Profrar, even if he's due for a pay raise.

Except, Miami ain't gonna keep him.

Are they getting a better offer than Profar + non-elite prospects in the next 18 months?
   10. The Good Face Posted: December 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4327634)
I don't count on anyone being a 3+ WAR player right away, especially not a 20 y.o.


Elvus Andrus was a 3.3 WAR player at 20, and Profar is a better regarded prospect with a broader skillset. Anyway, the Texas front office LOVES Profar. I think they see him as a sort of Derek Jeter type; a perennial All-Star who could anchor the franchise for the next 15 years. FWIW, the Texas fans adore the guy too; obviously that shouldn't dictate policy, but it's probably worth some consideration.

And Stanton is a 5+ WAR player, and only 23. Any deal would require Texas to lock Stanton up long-term. Think he'd sign a 10/150 contract?


How much did he get as a signing bonus? According to Bref, he's still making close to the league minimum, so it's possible he'd jump at the chance to get lifetime financial security. On the other hand, he'll be entering his age 27 season as a FA, and assuming his production stays more or less steady, I can easily see him getting 8/200. Plus whatever he pulls during his Arb years, which would be considerable.
   11. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4327645)
Elvus Andrus was a 3.3 WAR player at 20, and Profar is a better regarded prospect with a broader skillset. Anyway, the Texas front office LOVES Profar. I think they see him as a sort of Derek Jeter type; a perennial All-Star who could anchor the franchise for the next 15 years. FWIW, the Texas fans adore the guy too; obviously that shouldn't dictate policy, but it's probably worth some consideration.


This is all true but prospects bust...a lot. Pitchers more than hitters but the fact is that there is no such thing as a sure thing. If I could get a guy like Stanton and lock him up long term I'd deal Profar for him.
   12. The Good Face Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4327651)
Elvus Andrus was a 3.3 WAR player at 20, and Profar is a better regarded prospect with a broader skillset. Anyway, the Texas front office LOVES Profar. I think they see him as a sort of Derek Jeter type; a perennial All-Star who could anchor the franchise for the next 15 years. FWIW, the Texas fans adore the guy too; obviously that shouldn't dictate policy, but it's probably worth some consideration.


This is all true but prospects bust...a lot. Pitchers more than hitters but the fact is that there is no such thing as a sure thing. If I could get a guy like Stanton and lock him up long term I'd deal Profar for him.


Assuming it was just Profar for Stanton, maybe. But I expect Miami would want more back.

While there's no sure things, top hitting prospects have a pretty good track record. Profar's not in the A-Rod/Griffey/Harper "can't possibly miss" category, but he's just a step down. It'd be very surprising if he was just a bust.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4327652)
Elvus Andrus was a 3.3 WAR player at 20, and Profar is a better regarded prospect with a broader skillset. Anyway, the Texas front office LOVES Profar. I think they see him as a sort of Derek Jeter type; a perennial All-Star who could anchor the franchise for the next 15 years. FWIW, the Texas fans adore the guy too; obviously that shouldn't dictate policy, but it's probably worth some consideration.

Sure, but Stanton can anchor a franchise for 15 years too. He's only 23.

And, they have this little issue that they can't get maximum value out of both Profar and Andrus at the same time. You don't want to play Profar at 2B, and risk injury. Logically, one should be traded.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4327654)
Elvus Andrus was a 3.3 WAR player at 20, and Profar is a better regarded prospect with a broader skillset.
This isn't how projection works. Lots of prospects are better regarded than Elvis Andrus - he was the #37 prospect in baseball coming into 2009. It is not the case that the top 30 prospects in baseball all project to produce 3 WAR or better.

BA rated as better prospects than Andrus coming into 2009 Colby Rasmus and Dexter Fowler, who put up 1.7 and 1.0 WAR respectively in similar playing time. They also preferred Derek Hollard (-0.7 WAR), Trevor Cahill (1.2 WAR), Rick Porcello (2.2 WAR) and David Price (0.7 WAR). Andrus had an excellent rookie season. He's nothing close to the baseline.
   15. The Good Face Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4327675)
Sure, but Stanton can anchor a franchise for 15 years too. He's only 23.


Yes, but Stanton costs foldin' money after 2013. Profar is essentially free til 2016, and will probably be cheaper in arb than a guy like Stanton who puts up showy power numbers. That money could be used on other players. Plus Profar might not be enough to get Stanton.

And, they have this little issue that they can't get maximum value out of both Profar and Andrus at the same time. You don't want to play Profar at 2B, and risk injury. Logically, one should be traded.


I'd try to move Andrus. He's going to get very expensive soon, and his value is pretty well capped at ~4 WAR unless he suddenly develops some HR power or has a fluky BABIP season. I guess it's possible as he's still young, but Andrus is not some scrawny guy who needs to fill out. He's been a solidly built 200lbs for years; he just can't drive the ball.

   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4327680)
Yes, but Stanton costs foldin' money after 2013. Profar is essentially free til 2016, and will probably be cheaper in arb than a guy like Stanton who puts up showy power numbers. That money could be used on other players. Plus Profar might not be enough to get Stanton.

The odds that Profar is as good as Stanton are pretty low. There's a lot of development/growth between top prospect and 5+ WAR performer.

Even if I knew Profar was a 20 y.o. Derek Jeter, I'd still consider trading a 20 y.o. Jeter for Stanton.
   17. Spivey Posted: December 18, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4327685)


I'd try to move Andrus. He's going to get very expensive soon, and his value is pretty well capped at ~4 WAR unless he suddenly develops some HR power or has a fluky BABIP season. I guess it's possible as he's still young, but Andrus is not some scrawny guy who needs to fill out. He's been a solidly built 200lbs for years; he just can't drive the ball.


In general, I agree. But Profar would probably bring back more in return. Especially if we're talking about a deal like Stanton.

I think Profar is going to be very good, but I'd deal him with a couple of other good prospects for Stanton without thinking twice. Stanton is very much in the conversation for best player over the next 5-10 years. Profar may be, but he has a long way to go.
   18. BDC Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4327734)
Why would the Marlins want a good player for Stanton? Haven't they decided to do without good players for the time being? :) Seriously, I miss the days when you could just buy contracts. Mr. Ryan could mortgage his ranch and purchase Stanton for a lotta million dollars and make everybody happy.
   19. Ron J2 Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4327741)
#9 They might well not keep him once he hits free agency, but Stanton rates to be a good deal for them financially in his arbitration years. I see no reason they'd want/need to move him until free agency is close.
   20. AROM Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4327764)
Stanton obviously isn't going to be a Marlin for more than 2-3 years. As for his next place of employment, I'd really like him to go to Colorado. Just to see what he could do there in his prime years.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: December 18, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4327929)
And Stanton is a 5+ WAR player, and only 23. Any deal would require Texas to lock Stanton up long-term. Think he'd sign a 10/150 contract?

In the ballpark but my guess is not 10 years, not at that price. 8/$120 and talk to him after 5 years about an extension at 6/$180 (or whatever the going rate will be by then). Ten years would make him an FA entering his age 33 season which is not ideal. Also on that contract you'd be paying him "just" $20 M for his 6 FA years when he knows he could get $25 M a year now if he was an FA.
   22. Ron J2 Posted: December 18, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4328069)
#20 And bring back the old baseballs. Just to see if the equations on maximum distance are actually correct.
   23. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 20, 2012 at 04:33 AM (#4329187)
Texas should revisit Andrus for Upton. AZ hasn't acquired enough shortstops yet.

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