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Yeah. Seems like one sucky overpaid guy for another.
Hell, initially I thought the Royals, but now I'm not sure. Sanchez is a good pitcher coming off a crappy year and Cabrera just had his career year but has been recently crappy. It may be a trade that will seem less important a year from now than it seems now. What are the contract situations?
Unless Sanchez _finally_ harnesses his command (and we've been waiting a while now), I think this is an equitable trade.
According to BB Ref both are arb eligible but for 2011;
Melky - $1.25 MM
Sanchez - $4.8 MM
Sanchez 1/6, then FA. Cabrera Arb 4.
Edit: no Coke for you Jose, Sanchez was already extended for 2012 in April.
EDIT: To add, things change but if this trade had been proposed after 2010 it would have been laughed out of the room. But of course, things change.
Cot's has them both as Arbitration guys.
I'd call this trade for the Royals - Sanchez has front-of-the-rotation upside, while Melky was a BABIP fluke last year in the middle of an utterly blah career. I'd definitely bet on Sanchez having the better season in 2012, and so he's more likely to help out the Royals, more likely to have value in midseason trade or possibly be a guy they could sign for a couple years if he likes KC.
EDIT: Damn, Cot's didn't have the extension. Well, in any case, their salary situations are pretty similar.
I didn't realize what a bad year Sanchez had, or how extremely good Melky had been. Much closer than I thought.
But I think I'd rather have the starter that can strikeout 200 hitters. Melky is a poor defender and I don't know if he'll continue to hit well enough to start in leftfield.
1) Cabrera was supposed to suck.
2) Cabrera actually had a lot of value.
3) But the Royals got him when he sucked.
4) Then they traded him, after he'd gotten good, for Sucky Melky the Pitcher.
In short, this is an extremely funny trade.
For SF, what the frick are they doing with all these RF/LF/1B?
And Verdugo looks like a really nice throw-in. Thank you Brian Sabean!
If you're doing both in the same transaction, are you really doing either?
Seriously. This trade gives me vertigo.
Schierholtz, Cabrera and Torres? Is Cabrera taking RF and they hope for a Torres rebound? Or is Melky taking the CF job and they're going to look for a corner bat?
Yeah, looks like they just converted him to a SP in '11, and he K'd 9.2/9. If he can get that BB rate down from to ~3/9 he could be something.
While it gives Dayton Moore verdugo.
In-shape Melky isn't overmatched in CF. That is where he will play in San Fran.
Rany Jazayerli just completed a five-part series on his blog (15,000 words!) about potential upgrades to the Royals starting rotation, including the moon shot of trading for Felix Hernandez, and Sanchez's name didn't pop up.
I didn't realize that his numbers were actually pretty average over his career, and particularly with the Royals (I was always under the impression that he was kind of awful, hence why he was playing in KC), so maybe they'll bring him back anyway.
I'd still say this is a good deal for KC, but I'm not blown away by it anymore. Plus Melky's only 26 so he should have some upside if he stays fit.
Every sentence in that first paragraph also described Oliver Perez post-2004 (except that Ollie never got the xFIP under 4 at all). And I noticed in the '10 playoffs that Bochy seemed to be trying to nurse this alleged young near-ace through starts and get him out of there before he exploded, in a very similar manner to what the Mets had to do with Ollie in even his "good" '07.
I'm not sure what future Melky has. He is weird. But it's certainly not like he doesn't have potential himself, and I don't think Sanchez is going to prove to be much of a loss.
In-shape Melky isn't overmatched in CF. That is where he will play in San Fran.
Well where are you going to find that mythical creature?
UZR has Melky as -10/150 in CF last year (-7/150 career), and TZ has him -19 in 143 GS.
They should stop worrying about CF and start worrying about SS. Brandon Crawford was a way bigger hole than Torres in CF till Gary Brown is ready.
Wild, going from a pitcher-friendly park to at minimum a neutral park and what is deemed as a whole a bit tougher league.
I like Jonathan. If the Royals can get him to make his delivery more consistent then they have acquired quite the arm.
But teams have been working with hard-throwing lefties for 120 years on getting the delivery smoothed out and the track record ain't so hot.
Tonight we're going to party like it's 1999.
It's not really that big of a deal. Sanchez had 9.06 K/9 and 5.86 BB/9 for a 23.0% K-rate. Lincecum had 9.12 K/9 and 3.57 BB/9 for a 24.4% K-rate.
Sanchez's K-rate is still very good. 21rst in MLB for 100+ IP. Tied with Felix Hernandez.
His BB-rate, however was the absolute worst, 14.9%. A full 1.6% worse than 2nd loser, Edinson Volquez.
I've always heard that Kauffman Stadium's hitters eye is great for patient hitters too.
Why do they have to make moves in order of most importance? I would bet Harveys farm they are going after either Reyes or Rollins (probably Rollins because he's older and more overrated and his contract will be an albatross sooner)
What happened to Brandon Belt? Wasn't he like an A prospect 9 months ago?
I wouldn't go so far as to say that it was a terrific deal. Cain will be 26 early in the 2012 season, and his numbers at Omaha are out of the context of the rest of his minor league career; he might very well just have had a career year. I'd be surprised if he got anywhere close to what Melky did with the bat, and he's not enough better with the glove to make up for it.
I think it's a fair deal for both sides.
-- MWE
Right my first thought, considering they we're crying poor, was that this was intended to free up 4/5m for the signing of one of them.
Well, if Melky was ~-15 in CF, and Cain can be +0-5, he can be a fair sight worse with the bat, and still do fine.
Also, I'd be surprised if, in 2012, Melky gets anywhere close to what he did with the bat in 2011.
Cain may not be as good as 2011 Melky, but he's got a fair chance to be as good or better than 2012 Melky. For $3-4M less.
But Melky's getting at least $4M as an arb-4. He made >$3M 2 years ago before his non-tender.
He was already extended in April. 1 year $6M for 2012.
This was Freddy, not Jonathan Sanchez.
Hmm, that's what I get for trusting the 1.25 listed above. I was assuming max 2.5m.
I remember seeing him running around centerfield in Kansas City last year.
This has to be about clearing payroll for a marquee shortstop (either Reyes or Rollins). This probably saves the Giants about $2-3M and allows them to non-tender Andres Torres, saving another $2-3M. [Edit - I'm not sure how Melky's previous non-tender will affect his award - the savings may not be as great as I thought.]
The drop-off defensively from Torres to Cabrera is steep, though, particularly when you combine it with a defensively-challenged LF (Belt). They could put Melky on a corner and bench either Schierholtz or Huff (with Belt moving to 1B).
Huh, my bad.
I remember seeing him running around centerfield in Kansas City last year.
Well, if he was in-shape in 2011, his CF defense still stank, by the available metrics.
He was barely average when he was young in NY, so I'd be shocked if he was anything but bad now.
They just gave him 2/13.5. I think they're keeping him.
That should go great with Soria which used to be Spanish for "Mexicutioner"
Melky just turned 27 in August. He's not all that old.
I mean, I know people have CJ Wilson on the brain --- but at some point, you stop being the next big thing and you're really just Bobby Witt handled more tenderly.
29 yo. 120 big league starts. 700 big league innings.
At some point, even if he looks like he should be able to scoot up it -- you have start wondering if the ceiling is irrelevant because the kid just can't climb rope.
You can't see what isn't there.
1: Sanchez in 2011 wasn't all that different from Sanchez in 2008/09- his BB rate was a lot higher though, a batter per 9 higher, his OPS against was right in line with his career mark (which given the decline in offense is not good) His BABIP was good- not as good as 2010. Give him his career walk rate in 2011 and he's still not good, maybe 95 ERA+ rather than 84, give him his career BABIP in 2010, and he's at 100-110 ERA+ rather than 127, I think basically you have to look at him as a guy who can give you a 95-105 ERA+ over 150 or so innings- useful to be sure, but nothing exciting, the potential downside is the rest of his career may look like Oliver Perez's.
2: Melky: CF was such a gaping hole of suck for Sf in 2011 that the 2006,07,2009 versions of Melky might actually ave been an upgrade- that doesn't justify trading something useful for him though, and Melky was awful in 2008 and 2010... I don't know about 2011, but in 2009/10 he was visibly out of shape, did he workout in 2011? HAs he continued? Is that why he was better in 2011? Yes his BABIP spiked, and so did his ISO, his K rate went up, his walk rate down, his XH% way up. That to me suggests a change in approach, he was more aggressive in 2011, likely swing harder and hit the ball harder- that leads 2 questions- will he stick to that changed approach and how will he react if and when pitcher's adjust.
While this looks like a classic case of selling high (trading Melky after 2011) and buying low (Sanchez 2011)- I can't help but think that it's possible Dayton blundered again- Melky is far more likely to replicate his 2011 than Sanchez is to replicate his 2010- and Melky 2011 is worth far more than Sanchez 2010...
What's most likely is that this will be a push- neither player will do enough to get anyone excited
It probably doesn't help that I don't like Melky Cabrera and don't trust his 2011 improvement any farther than I can throw him.
Defense peaks at something like 21. Players basically get heavier and slower from day 1 in MLB.
After that his plate discipline fell off the map. Last season he was hitting the ball extremely hard from the left side, especially up the opposite gap, which was a huge improvement in his game. If he can ever re-discover his plate discipline, even to boost that on-base into the .350 range, he could be a solid starter in right field, given his above average throwing arm. Should the patience ever develop and his hard hitting ways from last season continue; the Giants could be big winners in this transaction. A lot of question marks, sure... but Sanchez is similarly burdened with performance concerns. This is a wait and see situation... it would be premature to call anyone a decided winner. Melky is entering his age 27 season and has banked a sizable amount of Major League experience. He could blossom, continuing his performance from ’11. Needs to stay in shape, though. That goes without saying.
To expect the Royals to be able to flip a switch the Giants couldn't seems optimistic. Could happen, I suppose, but the safe bet is that Sanchez is the pitcher he is: a league average innings dieter. Still useful to a team starved of pitching like the Royals, but I would be surprised if they could tap into any bigger upside with him. Possible, but not likely IMO.
This just cannot be true. Defensive excellence takes brains, and one does not have those at peak at 21.
That's the research I've seen.
Nolan Ryan
Bobby Witt
Randy Johnson
John D'Acquisto (bot did he throw hard)
Daniel Cabrera
What is it with Royals fans and Lorenzo Cain????
His ZiPS MLEs were .249/.301/.360
He was 51st in the PCL in OPS
That's not quite the same as being 51st in OPS in the AL (Mitch Moreland btw)
.249/.301/.360, do you know who put up a .660 OPS in 2011? Vernon Wells
a .249/.301/.360 hitting CF might be interesting if the guy was 22, but Cain will be 26
I don't think these statements necessarily contradict each other. Raw speed / agility will typically drop throughout a player's career. Speed/agility is the biggest component of defensive quality. It's important everywhere and paramount in the outfield, shortstop and second. (Also, I think there is a wider spectrum of speed/agility than there is of flyball-tracking-skill, or ball-scooping, etc.)
"Brains," on the other hand, increases throughout one's career, as suggested by BB rates for hitters that increase every year with age. Brains is important too, but in the aggregate, increasing brains does not offset decreasing speed/agility.
Defensive excellence is a special category. True excellence only comes to those who can play enough to increase their defensive brains but also stay fresh enough that they retain their natural youthful agility.
on edit > When you think about good defenders, you think about them peaking in their mid or late 20s. But then think about bad defenders. Think about the guys that started at catcher or shortstop but have been hauling their fat asses out to leftfield for years. Think about Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez. Miguel Cabrera! Any question that these guys have been getting defensively worse since they debuted?
There's a Royals & "limited intellectual capacity" joke in there somewhere...
I'm not a Royals fan, and saying he'll be better than Cabrera isn't much of a compliment to Cain, it's a knock on Cabrera. Jack Moore's piece on FanGraphs nails it - after BABIP regression, you're probably left with a .285/.315/.415 hitter with poor defense in CF. Cain's not going to hit that line, but he's likely to make up for it with his defense.
The kicker is that they already have a guy (Andres Torres) who is likely to outperform Cabrera in 2012. According to FanGraphs, Torres was the second-best overall CF in the game in 2010 (6.8 WAR, slightly ahead of Carlos Gonzalez). I doubt he'll hit that number again, but a 4-5 WAR season is within reach with Torres' defense. Meanwhile, Melky's career-best 2011 resulted in 4.6 WAR, and he's a year removed from posting a -1.0 WAR season with the Braves.
Not to mention that keeping Torres wouldn't have cost them a legitimate major-league starting pitcher with significant upside.
I can see the arguments for the other side made in this thread, but I'm not convinced. A starter with big strikeout and hit prevention numbers is a more valuable quantity than a journeyman outfielder. Barring information we don't have, you've got to stick to the fundamentals.
Daniel Cabrera hasn't put up anything near a 3.6 WAR in a season.
he'll be 34 and his 2010 season was further out of line from his career (both MLB and mles) than Melky's 2011 was to his career...
Oh what do I care, both Cabrera and Sanchez are bums, Sanchez 2010 was basically Oliver Perez 2004, with the difference that the Giants seem to know what they are doing with pitchers and the Pirates (and later Mets) did not.
Personally If I was the Giants I would have traded him for some other team's lottery ticket...
This is the biggest issue for SF.
Melky is not a CF. He may have learned to hit enough to be an OK corner OF (or not) but his defense is going to burn you in center.
He's not a solution today. All the defensive metrics had Melky at best a -10 CF in 2011, and some worse.
A pitching first team probably doesn't want to punt CF defense.
Well it could be worse, they could have tried the Angels route of throwing a busload of money at every CF who came along after a career year...
well they did it once (Rowand), whereas the Angels keep doing and...
OK, trading something of value for Melky kind of fits the Angels habit as well... so maybe
ok ok they are following the Angels CF strategy...
Think of the possibilities! I smell a Disney movie!
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