That's swell, but Jorge is aware that none of the other teams would feel obligated to humor his presence on their big league roster like the Yankees do, right?

Ingrate.

If Brian Sabean is a GM somewhere, Jorge will always have a better than 50-50 shot at being on the roster of a major league team next year.

I wonder how he feels about catching. Media reports seem to indicate that he would live to strap on the pads again, but the team won't let him.

If he's capable of being a backup catcher/pinch hitter next year, there is probably a place for him on an MLB roster. If he's a platoon DH/pinch hitter with only 1B flexibility, I can't see it.

Media reports seem to indicate that he would live to strap on the pads again, but the team won't let him.

Didn't Olney report that the Yankees front office was afraid of his concussion history and his diminished skills as the primary reason for moving Jorge to DH? I would tend to think that someone with pop and the defensive positions Jorge is limited to might actually fit into the SFG's roster. Posey's time behind the plate might be hindered by his injury which Jorge can spell once a week and Jorge can pretty much sub for Belt or be the PH when needed. So I guess I would have to say someone will give Jorge a shot at a roster spot next year, and strangely, it might be for a NL team.

Didn't Olney report that the Yankees front office was afraid of his concussion history and his diminished skills as the primary reason for moving Jorge to DH?

That's what I've read as well, but this situation seems to be keeping him from ever jumping behind the plate, not just as a primary C. If all he can do is spell 1B and hit, I don't know if even the Gigantes would want to sacrifice a roster spot for him.

but this situation seems to be keeping him from ever jumping behind the plate

I think Yankees fans could have lived with seeing Jorge as the backup catcher and rotating in and out of the DH spot. I think all Yankees fans understand his defensive shortcomings, but the bit about the concussion seems to be something new that the front office threw out there. Plus, the Yankees had a presumptive top catching prospect in camp during the spring and actually had a need at DH at the beginning of this season.

The Giants or another team's medical staff may differ in their medical opinion on Jorge's concussion history. I don't think Jorge would embarass himself out there as a backup catcher, and I think some club will give him at least the spring training to find out if that is still the case in 2012.

He was a good hitter for each of the 11 seasons prior to this one. He'll be 40 next year, so he's probably done, but I'd bet some other team would be interested to find out.

The problem with putting Posada on your roster is your manager is going to feel mighty tempted to play him way too much. And I have my doubts Posada is going to happily accept being a platoon guy, much less a fill-in/spotting the starters guy.

He's probably going to latch onto a semi-contender next year and either play way too much or spend most of the year on the DL.

I have to say that this public statement, plus his behavior this year (he refused to play when Girardi told him to bat ninth) would be a negative factor if I were an interested GM. It wouldn't disqualify Jorge, but it would be a strike against.

He must be talking about the Surf Dawgs.

[EDIT]: As I feared, this reference is outdated. I'm happy to find out, though, that the former San Diego Surf Dawgs spent a year in Yuma, Arizona playing as the Sonora Surf Dawgs. I think that tops the Los Angeles Lakers for absurdity and moves into second place behind the perennial champion Utah Jazz.

I doubt the concussion issue has anything to do with the Yankees' decisionmaking. They simply feel he cannot catch adequately anymore. Posada feels he can, and wants to. If I were a GM I wouldn't mind signing him to a minimum 1-yr contract with the plan to use him a lot at catcher. But I'd be sure to have a backup plan.

"It could happen" is a long way from Posada saying he's determined to play anywhere he can get a 2012 contract. He's in a no-win situation in that if he says he'll only play for the Yankees or that this is his last year, he kicks off a bunch of "Jorge Retirement" stories. Who knows what he wants to do, and how he plays the rest of the season should be a factor, but I don't think he's tipped his hand all that much yet.

They simply feel he cannot catch adequately anymore.

I don't know if this is supportable. They had a stretch where Martin was hurt (but they never DL'd him). "Scatterarm" Cervelli was catching every day, and making a two-base error every day. Posada never got in the games as a C, and I don't recall him strapping on the pads in the dugout either. I guess we're arguing about the word "adequately" here, but it seems to me that they could have thrown him in there to spot Cervelli once or twice, or to PH for a real catcher late in the game and then take over behind the plate for an inning or two.

I don't know if this is supportable. They had a stretch where Martin was hurt (but they never DL'd him). "Scatterarm" Cervelli was catching every day, and making a two-base error every day. Posada never got in the games as a C, and I don't recall him strapping on the pads in the dugout either. I guess we're arguing about the word "adequately" here, but it seems to me that they could have thrown him in there to spot Cervelli once or twice, or to PH for a real catcher late in the game and then take over behind the plate for an inning or two.

The above makes my argument for me. They could have thrown him in. They refuse to.

Basically, what happened is that they told Posada before the year that he simply wouldn't be catching at all. Apparently, he sulked. There is some dispute as to whether he was willing to throw on the gear in spring training (or in the bullpen for warmups) after being told he wouldn't catch. He says he was. They say he refused. Regardless, Cashman now says the problem is that Posada hasn't caught at all in so long that he's not in shape for it. Cashman said in an interview about a month ago that Posada could maybe catch one game -- but the problem is that he wouldn't be able to recover. Cashman said they would use him in an emergency, i.e., if they run out of catchers.

They simply feel he cannot catch anymore. Otherwise, they would have made him the backup.

Yeah, I agree with Ray. Also, we have the evidence that he can't catch anymore in the form of the 2010 season. He was brutal to watch last year.

My point (and I guess it doesn't really matter why) is that I had thought he was medically not cleared to catch, for even an inning, due to the fact that another concussion might permanently damage his ability to lead a normal life.

I doubt the concussion issue has anything to do with the Yankees' decisionmaking. They simply feel he cannot catch adequately anymore. Posada feels he can, and wants to. If I were a GM I wouldn't mind signing him to a minimum 1-yr contract with the plan to use him a lot at catcher. But I'd be sure to have a backup plan.

The obvious conclusion, then, is that Posada will land in Pittsburgh, where careers traditionally go to die.

Who was the better Yankee catcher: Jorge Posada or Thurman Munson?

They played in drastically different offensive environments, but the B-Ref stat conversion tool allows for easy comparison. This is in B-Ref's "defaults" 4.42 R/G environment:

269/369/465, 7023 PA, 456 BRAR - Posada
308/365/433, 6097 PA, 299 BRAR - Munson

Posada's got a big lead in batting. But then you get defense and baserunning. Munson was a very good defensive catcher, throwing out 44% of opposing baserunners, while Posada threw out only 28% and has typically poor PB and WP numbers. CHONE rates the difference between their defensive numbers at ~60 runs over the course of their careers. Further, Munson was a good baserunner - not just a good baserunner for a catcher - and Posada was one of the worst baserunners of his era. Baserunning numbers combine to give Munson another ~65 run advantage on Posada. Overall, batting plus defense plus baserunning gives you nearly a dead heat - 374 RAR for Posada, 348 RAR for Munson.

Further, you have to account for offensive context again - in a high-offense setting, it takes more runs created or prevented to win a game. When you make the conversion to WAR, you get 44.9 for Posada and 43.4 for Munson. That's a tie.

EDIT: to clarify, I skipped the positional adjustment because it's basically the same for both of them - Munson played a higher percentage of his games at C, and Posada played a much higher percentage of his games at DH, so that makes up for Posada's playing time advantage.

My point (and I guess it doesn't really matter why) is that I had thought he was medically not cleared to catch, for even an inning, due to the fact that another concussion might permanently damage his ability to lead a normal life.

I've heard Cashman and Girardi interviewed extensively on this matter. At no point did either say that he is not medically cleared to catch. And if it were true, it would have been an obvious out for them.

Posada hasn't said that either.

God, the Yankees have a history of catchers. Posada would be the best for most franchises, and he's not even no-doubt in the top Three in Yankeeland.

Baserunning numbers combine to give Munson another ~65 run advantage on Posada.

Really? Munson played about ten full seasons, Posada about 15 - so you're telling me the difference on the basepaths between Munson and Posada is about five runs a season? That's a bit hard to swallow.

Munson was not good at stealing bases, and the Yankees let him run way too often (read: ever). He cost the team runs with his SB attempts. Munson comes in slightly above average in baserunning while being successful less than half the time in SB attempts - he must have been pretty good at the other aspects of baserunning, which would explain why the Yankees let him keep trying to steal bases - and he reached base on errors more often than usual.

There is definitely a case that Jorge Posada was a worse baserunner than his B-Ref numbers. I think other attempts to measure non-SB baserunning have Posada twice as bad as his CHONE numbers or worse. But I was using what was readily available.

Jorge Posada: a True Royal.

Munson was not good at stealing bases, and the Yankees let him run way too often (read: ever). He cost the team runs with his SB attempts. Munson comes in slightly above average in baserunning while being successful less than half the time in SB attempts - he must have been pretty good at the other aspects of baserunning,

Or the measurement is off.

I'm kinda the opposite of Posada - I don't particularly like Yankee fans, but I would consider playing for the Yankees.

I thought that you were going to say that you can catch and that you have a chin.

Really? Munson played about ten full seasons, Posada about 15 - so you're telling me the difference on the basepaths between Munson and Posada is about five runs a season? That's a bit hard to swallow.

From reading Yankee fans' opinions on the subject, I'd conclude that one wouldn't have to be a good baserunner to be 5 runs better than Jorge, who combines dreadful foot speed with bad instincts and terrible decision making skills on the basepaths.

Munson comes in slightly above average in baserunning while being successful less than half the time in SB attempts - he must have been pretty good at the other aspects of baserunning

Munson was very good at reading the ball of the bat and once he got going could run reasonably well, so he was much better at going 1st to 3rd than stealing bases. Pretty good on close plays at home, too - I think he enjoyed the collisions.

From reading Yankee fans' opinions on the subject, I'd conclude that one wouldn't have to be a good baserunner to be 5 runs better than Jorge, who combines dreadful foot speed with bad instincts and terrible decision making skills on the basepaths.

I think that Tom was skeptical in the other direction - that Posada should be even worser than Munson, not that ~5 runs per season is too much.

I think that Tom was skeptical in the other direction - that Posada should be even worser than Munson, not that ~5 runs per season is too much.

That seems unlikely to me, but hopefully Tom is by to clarify.

SoSH is right. I am skeptical that sheer baserunning by your catcher alone can add up to a half-win per season for over a decade.

If the difference between a slow-but-smart catcher and a slow-and-dumb catcher is half a win, Ichiro must have provided two or three wins more than Jay Buhner ever did just from running the bases.

[32] To be fair, I have never in my life seen a base runner combine lack of speed with unfathomably poor decision making quite like Posada. Coupled with his high OBP it makes for quite the highlight reel of bad baserunning.

Munson wasn't particularly slow.

Before we criticize, we need to understand that Posada loses about 15 MPH on the basepaths due to ear drag.

I'd put Posada ahead of Munson, because I'm more sold on the quality of offensive numbers (that is, measuring them, not comparing the two) than defensive and baserunning. Although anything that shows Posada as epically awful can't be all bad.

Also, Munson was looking like he was on the tail end of his career at the time of his death, I’m not convinced the extra years would have done him many favors. Whereas Posada continued to hit--and, in fairness, defend badly and run worse--well into his late 30s. Even making some accounting for Munson’s untimely death, I think Posada wins out on durability.

SoSH is right. I am skeptical that sheer baserunning by your catcher alone can add up to a half-win per season for over a decade.

If the difference between a slow-but-smart catcher and a slow-and-dumb catcher is half a win, Ichiro must have provided two or three wins more than Jay Buhner ever did just from running the bases.

I'm skeptical of those numbers as well, although in all fairness, Posada is probably the worst baserunner I've seen in MLB...a terrifying combination of slow foot speed, ill-advised aggression, and a tendency to zone out occasionally.

To be clear about one thing, the numbers I'm calling baserunning include some things that aren't precisely just baserunning - it's also reaching on errors and grounding into double plays (compared to GIDP opportunities).

About half the "baserunning" difference is in GDPs.

About half the "baserunning" difference is in GDPs.

One of us must be missing something. According to the Rdp column I'm looking at on bb-ref, Posada accumulated -17 Rdp in 16 seasons, while Munson had -10 Rdp in 11 seasons. In other words, pretty much identical.

The other statistics bear this out. According to bb-ref, Munson grounded into 18 DPs per 162 games in his career, while Posada grounded into 16 DPs per 162 games. Munson's career high in GIDP was 23, while Posada's was 24.

One of us must be missing something. According to the Rdp column I'm looking at on bb-ref, Posada accumulated -17 Rdp in 16 seasons, while Munson had -10 Rdp in 11 seasons. In other words, pretty much identical.

The other statistics bear this out. According to bb-ref, Munson grounded into 18 DPs per 162 games in his career, while Posada grounded into 16 DPs per 162 games. Munson's career high in GIDP was 23, while Posada's was 24.

There is a signficant ROE difference, however. Despite significantly fewer PA, Munson had 102 to Posada's 62

Tom - yeah, it's me missing something. I had misremembered the arrangement of runs and didn't double-check before that post. The difference between Munson and Posada is mostly in the pure baserunning. (Munson +10 against Posada -35)

@41: that makes much more sense. I don't have a problem believing that wrt baserunning Posada was 2 to 3 runs below average while Munson was 1 run above; though if I had guessed I would have put the difference between them the same, but with both guys equally, say, 3 runs worse. Posada looks like he has to be pretty bad, even when he's doing the right thing.

I'm kinda the opposite of Posada - I don't particularly like Yankee fans, but I would consider playing for the Yankees.

There are people who can help with that kind of thing. They're called exorcists.

I'd put Posada ahead of Munson, because I'm more sold on the quality of offensive numbers (that is, measuring them, not comparing the two) than defensive and baserunning. Although anything that shows Posada as epically awful can't be all bad.

This is like saying you believe a six-pack and a keg weighs less than a case of beer because your scale can't weigh the keg.


Also, I was thinking about this on vacation: isn't counting gdp against a player the same as counting RBI - I mean, on the one hand it clearly happened in terms of value, but the batter hit a ground ball and just happened to have a teammate on base. If the teammate had made an out or hit a double, no gdp. IOW, it's a teammate dependent stat. Much like sac flies.

#44 That's why Sean adjusts for the frequency that the DP is in order.

Also, Ray what gives you the slightest reason to think the baserunning numbers are wrong?

I mean I prefer the way Tom Ruane approached accounting for baserunning. If yo're going to bother with the counting, it's really no more work to account for game state. But I doubt the differences are large.

In any case though, we know how often a typical baserunner goes first to third on a single to right. Or second to home. We know how often they make outs on base.

Yes, there are bound to be cases where for instance a guy is credited with an out on base and somebody else is the guilty party (or even those cases where the runner is called out but was in fact safe). But that's true of everything. It's part of the reason that all players within 5 runs of each other offensively should be thought of as having a seaon of equal value.

It's just lame to wave your hands and say there might be a flaw. Be specific. Was Munson in fact a better baserunner (or worse) than the numbers show? Is it remotely improbable that he was a slightly better than average baserunner? That Posada is a bad one? That small advantages add up over time?

Would Posada consider an NRI? Would he consider retiring gracefully after he goes 0-for-spring training?

#44 That's why Sean adjusts for the frequency that the DP is in order.

Dang, I'd never noticed that. Thanks. It's humbling to realize that a breakthrough thought of mine was thought of so long ago that it is now an assumed part of someone else's algorithm. Actually, that is a fair approximation of my career.