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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Jose Bautista is waiting, and it’s costing him money - Beyond the Box Score

This doesn’t suggest an optimistic outcome.

The results fit the narrative, largely. In sum, this group signed for 20% less than projected, a bigger negative gap than the crowd has tended to display on all free agents collectively. The crowd did a remarkably good job of predicting the high-end free agents in the aggregate, with some big misses in both directions balancing each other out. When compared to the pool of free agents as a whole, where the high-end free agents beat their projected values by about 25% on average, the late-signers seem to take a big hit, failing to beat their projected values altogether.

The conclusion that suggests – that late signees make less money than their fast-moving counterparts – is supported by the monthly trend. While there are only seven March signers in the sample, the steady progression of less and less money than originally expected as the months turn over suggests that the longer a player remains unsigned, the worse their prognosis.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:28 AM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents

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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:14 AM (#5381539)
I'm optimistic he signs with the Twins
   2. snowles Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:03 PM (#5381632)
There's really no reason, especially as they continue to bandy about names like Jay Bruce, for the Blue Jays not to resign Jose to a 1 or 2 year contract (likely a one year opt-out or option on a 1-year contract). There's a need for the team, there's a desire to sign for the player, there's a familiarity and there's a good chance he can rebound and provide good value, especially if he's not playing RF all season.

The big thing for the Jays is getting the pick, but if they lose Jose to a team with a protected pick, and then have to trade an asset and end up with a 1WAR or worse player like Bruce, I really don't see the point in that at all. Just sign the damn guy already.
   3. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:34 PM (#5381672)
There's really no reason, especially as they continue to bandy about names like Jay Bruce, for the Blue Jays not to resign Jose to a 1 or 2 year contract (likely a one year opt-out or option on a 1-year contract).


Really sorta depends on the $ don't you think? Is an offer around the QO still on the table? Does Bautista want more than that? If he only rebounds to a 2 WAR player then a $17M/1 contract is an overpay (and a $30M/2 w/ an opt out is even worse for the Jays).

ETA:

The big thing for the Jays is getting the pick, but if they lose Jose to a team with a protected pick,


Do picks still go to the team losing the player? I thought the new CBA changed it and picks were only forfeited depending on luxury tax abusers?
   4. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:44 PM (#5381681)
Pretty sure the old CBA applies to the 2017 draft.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5381691)

Do picks still go to the team losing the player? I thought the new CBA changed it and picks were only forfeited depending on luxury tax abusers?


The team losing a FA doesn't get the pick of the team signing the player, and that hasn't been the practice for several years now. They changed that under the old CBA. The Jays will get a pick at the end of the first round, regardless of who signs Bautista, under the 2012-2016 CBA provisions (the new one goes into effect next winter, for purposes of draft pick compensation).
   6. Cargo Cultist Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:54 PM (#5381799)
"The agent called and I said, ‘Really? Jose is a villain in Baltimore and I’m not going to go tell our fans that we’re courting Jose Bautista for the Orioles because they’re not going to be happy.'" - Dan Duquette

He could have left out "in Baltimore."
   7. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 03:28 PM (#5381848)
Ahh, thanks #4 & #5. Was very confused to keep hearing about the old compensation picks.

Am I correct though that the new CBA does not give the 'losing' team any compensation pick? There are only forfeited picks, typically a 3rd rounder, correct?
   8. Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 08:55 AM (#5382172)
From How the new MLB collective bargaining agreement changes baseball

Changes to draft-pick compensation
OK, this is going to take a little explaining. We’ll hope that bullet points will save us.

If a team gets revenue sharing and signs a player who received the qualifying offer, they would lose their third-highest draft pick.

Teams that pay into the revenue-sharing pool will lose their second- and fifth-highest picks.

Those rich teams would also lose $1 million from their international signing cap.

The medium-market teams — the ones who don’t receive or pay revenue-sharing money — would give up their second-highest pick and $500,000 in international money.

A team that loses a player who declines the qualifying offer before signing for $50 million or more will get a draft choice between the first and second round.

If that player signs for less than $50 million, the pick will be after round B of the competitive-balance round, which is after the second round.

Reminder that the Cardinals occasionally get extra picks in the competitive balance round, which is still just the stupidest thing.

If a team is over the luxury-tax threshold, they’ll still get a pick for losing a top free agent, but it will be after the fourth round.

This all starts next offseason.

Phew. Alright, it automatically loses a Selig for being so complicated. And at least a half-Selig for not starting right away. But the overall changes are an improvement. Teams shouldn’t have had to give up a first-round pick to sign Kendrys Morales. That was always ludicrous, and it absolutely crushed his market three years ago.

The draft would hurt the small-market teams trying to contend, and it would do so disproportionately. A team like the Indians a) wants to improve their current roster, but also b) needs their first-round picks to pan out and give them low-cost options and a chance at affordable-yet-talented rosters. They had to choose. Now they don’t.

I still don’t like the idea of draft-pick compensation at all. Teams should attempt to improve, right? It builds interest, excites the fans, keeps everyone’s attention during the offseason. I get that it’s to suppress salaries, but now that it will cost just a fourth-round pick for a small-market team, it won’t suppress salaries in a substantial way. So why keep the slap on the wrist around?

At least the system is better, though. And the changes weren’t baby steps, either.
   9. ReggieThomasLives Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:25 AM (#5382232)
If he only rebounds to a 2 WAR player then a $17M/1 contract is an overpay (and a $30M/2 w/ an opt out is even worse for the Jays).


Those are not overpays. WAR on short term deals is worth paying more for because of lower injury/decline risk.
   10. DL from MN Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:40 AM (#5382247)
If he only rebounds to a 2 WAR player then a $17M/1 contract is an overpay


A low first round pick is worth roughly 2 WAR. Bautista's ZIPS projection is for 3 WAR. That would mean 1 year $8M is appropriate.
   11. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:47 AM (#5382253)
Trade Markakis to Baltimore (or whereever.) Sign JBats to a 1 or 2 year deal.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:54 AM (#5382255)

A low first round pick is worth roughly 2 WAR. Bautista's ZIPS projection is for 3 WAR. That would mean 1 year $8M is appropriate.


But that 2 WAR is less valuable since its not going to happen for 3-6 years, and is going to be spread out over multiple years.

The expectation on 0.5 WAR/season for 4 seasons, starting 5 years from now, is much less valuable than 2 WAR next year.

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