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Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Jose Fernandez announces goal of 1.95 ERA for sophomore campaign

Even Pretzels Getzien and his 1.95 ERA don’t see the logic in this!

He delivered his message quiet matter-of-factly, as if he were discussing the everyday, the mundane, the fully expected. With neither fanfare nor a deep breath to preface his quiet announcement, Jose Fernandez calmly said, “My goal this year is to have a 1.95 ERA.” There.

Oh, 1.95? Well, of course? Why not? Why not 1.90?

“I think I can,” Fernandez said with an earnestness that is delightful and disarming. His response to his listener’s somewhat incredulous reaction was an incredulous reaction of his own, as if to say “What, you don’t think I can?”

Clearly, the Marlins’ latest wunderkind considers putting up a 1.95 ERA in 2014—his second season in the big leagues—an achievement well within the parameters of plausibility. He said as much—unsolicited—twice Sunday and confirmed it Monday. No need to explore it. He said it, he expects to do it. He seemed to think a “Really?” was uncalled for.

And why not? When Fernandez pitched effectively enough to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 2013, he produced a 2.19 ERA, a 12-6 record and .667 winning percentage in 28 starts for a team that lost 100 games and produced a .383 percentage. Would an improvement of 24 points in his already low ERA be that much more improbable?

“I expect to be a better pitcher than I was,” he said.

Repoz Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:29 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: marlins

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   1. Bourbon Samurai is disturbed by bagel developments Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4662208)
That is admirably specific.
   2. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4662257)
If Jarred Cosart can do it...
   3. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:17 PM (#4662259)
Did they get a quote from Brian McCann on this?
   4. SoCalDemon Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:20 PM (#4662265)
I can't wait until he smashes up the Gatorade cooler after his last start when he fails to give up a run to his final batter, Joey Votto. You can take that 1.92 ERA and suck on it, Jose!
   5. esseff Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:21 PM (#4662266)
But 1.94? Out of the question.
   6. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:33 PM (#4662273)
A 1.95 ERA for Jose Fernandez would move him into second place, ahead of Jose Fernandez, on the Marlins' single-season list.
   7. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:11 PM (#4662303)
I like a young man challenging himself.
   8. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4662325)
Last year if he'd allowed 37 runs he'd have put up a 1.93 ERA, and a 1.98 if he'd allowed 38 runs.

I like guys who are too young to know you shouldn't say things like that. Here's hoping his arm doesn't blow up.
   9. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:34 PM (#4662328)
I like this trend toward specific goals. "My goal for the upcoming season is to hit between seven and nine batters."
   10. Swedish Chef Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4662347)
That might be good enough to get ten wins.
   11. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:59 PM (#4662349)
It's pretty selfish of him to focus on his own stats. If he gave a #### about his team the only stat he'd care about is wins.
   12. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:00 PM (#4662351)
He'll reach 1.95 in the third inning of his fourth start and then tip his cap to the crowd and call it a year.
   13. Addison Russell T. Davies (chris h.) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4662352)
"My goal is to incur 3 total trips to the DL."
   14. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4662356)
"My goal is to incur 3 total trips to the DL."


Nick Johnson wants to know what the goal is after April.
   15. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:15 PM (#4662369)
He hit for a higher batting average and slugging percentage than he gave up last year. His goal should be to get his OBP up to an acceptable level.
   16. God Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:23 PM (#4662377)
"Kershaw: 1.95 ERAs are for pansies"
   17. Astroenteritis Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:40 PM (#4662386)
If Jarred Cosart can do it...


That's right. Try putting up a 1.95 ERA with a WHIP of 1.350. It's not easy. If Fernandez gets his WHIP down under .9 he should manage at least a 1.70 ERA.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: February 25, 2014 at 06:10 PM (#4662462)
Are we rounding? Is 1.95128 good enough?

He hit for a higher batting average and slugging percentage than he gave up last year.

Holy crap! That sounds like the most amazing thing I've ever heard. Is it or is this more common than I'd imagine?

And it wasn't even close:

JF 220/340
OP 182/256

Granted, his OPS was SLG heavy but that's 556 vs. 522. And BABIP was 333 vs 242.

   19. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 25, 2014 at 06:37 PM (#4662484)
Holy crap! That sounds like the most amazing thing I've ever heard. Is it or is this more common than I'd imagine?


Micah Owings did the triple during his rookie year: Higher BA, OBP and SLG than he allowed. The following season he came up only four points of slugging short of repeating the feat. Of course, it was primarily due to his slash lines of .333/.349/.683 and .304/.361/.411 at the plate those seasons (for the record, he had more PA than Fernandez in both seasons).
   20. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:25 PM (#4662502)
Holy crap! That sounds like the most amazing thing I've ever heard. Is it or is this more common than I'd imagine?
Wade Boggs did it one year. I would guess that a list would have more people like Boggs and relievers/ AL pitchers who went 2 for 5 than NL ERA qualifiers.
   21. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:43 PM (#4662509)
Wade Boggs did it one year. I would guess that a list would have more people like Boggs and relievers/ AL pitchers who went 2 for 5 than NL ERA qualifiers.


Besides Owings, some other NL hurlers who pulled off the triple:
Don Drysdale in 65.
Bob Gibson in 70.
Don Robinson in 80.
Rick Rhoden in 84.
Mike Hampton in 99.
Jason Marquis in 05.
Carlos Zambrano in 08.

It appears most of the good-hitting pitchers have done it once.
   22. JJ1986 Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:46 PM (#4662510)
Gooden hit .226/.265/.280 in 1985, gave up a line of .201/.254/.270.
   23. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:47 PM (#4662511)
Doc Gooden in 1985 hit .226/.265/.280 while allowing a line of .201/254/.270, so he beat all three.
   24. God Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:48 PM (#4662512)
Kershaw didn't quite make it this year but he was damn close.

Kershaw: .241/.260/.501
Opponents: .244/.277/.521

Kershaw did out-bat and out-OBP his opponents in 2011. And, of course, there was Don Drysdale's beastly 1965:

Drysdale: .331/.508/.839
Opponents: .279/.362/.641
   25. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:53 PM (#4662516)
Wes Ferrell probably did it or came close about eight times in his ten full years.
   26. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:54 PM (#4662517)
Greinke had to do it last year, no?
   27. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:58 PM (#4662519)
Wes Ferrell probably did it or came close about eight times in his ten full years.


He did all three on three occasions.

And Greinke did pull it off in 2013.
   28. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 25, 2014 at 08:12 PM (#4662524)
OK, here's the all-time champ (non-Ferrell division).

Terry Forster:

Batting: .397/.413/.474
Pitching: .251/.327/.336

For His Career.
   29. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: February 25, 2014 at 08:59 PM (#4662544)
Yovanni Gallardo did it in 2010, mostly with slugging. Hit .254/.329/.508, allowed .251/.324/.370.
   30. Sweatpants Posted: February 25, 2014 at 09:17 PM (#4662548)
John Smoltz in 1999 hit .274/.338/.387. His opponents hit .245/.288/.374.
I'm guessing that, when Walter Johnson went 20-7 with a 3.07 ERA in 1925, his opponents weren't able to best his marks of .433/.455/.577. Johnson probably did this several times in the 1910s, too.
   31. Bote Man Posted: February 25, 2014 at 09:41 PM (#4662556)
If Johan Santana can hit better than he allows, then he would be the best pitcher in the universe, given:

@DSzymborski: Johan Santana's fastball reportedly topped off at 81 in workout. Not exactly an auspicious sign.

Oh dear.
   32. Monty Posted: February 25, 2014 at 09:52 PM (#4662559)
How did Babe Ruth do for his career?
   33. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 25, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4662566)
Since 2000, minimum 50 PA, better BA/OBP/SLG by pitcher than allowed:

Jason Marquis, 2005
Carlos Zambrano, 2005 and 2008
Micah Owings, 2007
Yovani Gallardo, 2010
Dan Haren, 2010
Stephen Strasburg, 2012
Zack Greinke, 2013

Rick Rhoden did it three times, in 1976, 1984 and 1986.
Bob Forsch also did it three times, in 1975, 1980, and 1987.
Some guys who did it at least twice: Vernon Law, Don Newcombe, Early Wynn, and Ned Garvin.

And probably the most unexpected guy to do it: Nolan Ryan, who was never a good hitter, hit .216/.286/.235 in 1981 - and allowed .188/.280/.216.

-- MWE

EDIT: It's happened 59 times in the 63 seasons from 1951 through 2013.
   34. Tricky Dick Posted: February 25, 2014 at 10:19 PM (#4662571)
But what is his target FIP? That's the part he can control, right?
   35. Shock Posted: February 25, 2014 at 10:26 PM (#4662576)
The person with the most PA to do it was Don Drysdale in 1965; 138 PA he hit .300/.331/.508 and allowed .232/.276/.362
   36. PreservedFish Posted: February 26, 2014 at 12:14 AM (#4662620)
Esteban Yan has a career 1.000/1.000/2.500 line ... I was slightly surprised to see that he did, in fact, allow a lesser SLG than that as a pitcher.

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