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1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: September 06, 2011 at 03:49 AM (#3917482)The Sox don't seem to have much luck with picking up durable starting pitchers.
Now, now, enough of that. Though in another thread we had Jose the seabiscuit really pants pissing about the fact that the Sox might miss the playoffs, so that was kind of funny.
So we've all heard Spahn and Sain and pray for rain...the Sox rotation is now Lester...and then we're f*cked. Best news is that with all these injuries, everyone should get healthy and peak just in time for the playoffs!
It would have been very surprising to me if you told me at the beginning of the year that the Yankees ability to get decent to good innings out of the cadre of veteran wash-ups they'd picked up would be the difference in the division, but it almost looks like that could be the case at this point.
Imnot saying it's likely they'll miss the playoffs but its more than possible. The lead could easily be 2-3 games on Monday.
It would have been very surprising to me if you told me at the beginning of the year that the Yankees ability to get decent to good innings out of the cadre of veteran wash-ups they'd picked up would be the difference in the division, but it almost looks like that could be the case at this point.
I doubt if I would've taken 50 to 1 on that proposition at the start of the season, and I'm still half expecting that pumpkin to show up at midnight of the second postseason game. Thank God we've got Scott Proctor back for the stretch.
The minor-league season is over, so there's no possibility for live rehab, should Beckett need it.
I think Jose is overreacting; the Sox absolutely will make the playoffs. They would be able to accept a Beckett disaster start if they thought it would get him healthy.
It seems completely wrong that the Sox's playoff chances might come down to an injury incurred during "garbage time", when playoff making is more or less assured.
One thing about the Tampa series, doesn't Tito have to have Lester come back Sunday? It would be his regular rest and the reality is that if the Sox can win one game from each of the series against Tampa that probably is all they'd need.
I do agree with Hugh that if Beckett/Bedard are healthy on top of Lester this team can be outstanding in the playoffs.
If Tampa doesn't lose any ground before hand, and then sweeps the Sox, you can worry.
But, barring that, I can't see getting agitated.
They certainly could go 10-12, but I don't believe for a moment that this is their high-end projection.
And Ellsbury, who is the actual best MVP candidate on the Red Sox.
I think we have a different definition of "at best".
Of course, the Pants Pissers are worried that things will not go well. But Tampa would have to fashion its own version of the Boston Massacre to overtake the Red Sox. That's not going to be easy.
That would be awesome if the Red Sox were some sort of machine that returns it's own average results on every pitch (never mind every game). Unfortunatly, the Sox are 4-6 their last 10 games. 9 of those at home. They've scored 47 runs and given up 61 runs. They look tired, they play tired. And they *may* have lost their ace. They play 12 games on the road and 10 at home. Of those 22 game, 3 are against the best AL team, and 7 against a team that has gone 21-12 the last 23 games.
10-12.
1) what he's been this year - very good multiple inning relief pitcher;
2) "Plan B" a few nights a week, where the team hopes to get five decent innings out of Weiland/Wakefield/Miller/Doubront, with Aceves planning to give them three innings that night;
3) They make him a five-inning starter to fill in some blanks while Bedard and Beckett get ready for October.
Personally, I prefer #2, because it puts structure into the pitching.
What I don't want is for the Red Sox to have to start somebody in late September because they HAVE to; I want them to start a certain guy because they WANT to.
I think the odds are really high (like 80/20) that we'll see Beckett again this September.
April/May - 30-25
June/July - 36-15
August/September - 18-16
This feels like the 2002 team that was dominant for the first two months then .500 the rest of the way. The starting pitching is "replacement level" beyond Lester by any reasonable definition and the offense has been struggling.
They've built themselves a nice cushion that should be enough but I think 10-12 is a pretty reasonable estimation of what they'll do the rest of the way.
Right now I don't think we can say anything even remotely confidently about Beckett. I agree that the Sox will get him at least one more start if he can go (for the reasons you outline) but I think there is a reasonable chance that his season is over. I also think it is just as likely that he takes the ball for his start on Saturday/Sunday and that it was just something giving out a bit.
Any of this is possible, but the Rays have to sweep the Sox in the seven games to have any meaningful chance. Shoot, the Red Sox can go 5-17 the rest of the way, including getting swept in all seven against Tampa, and the Rays would still have to go 13-9 the rest of the season - .590 baseball, which is better than the Rays have played so far this season!
I guess I'm saying this is pants-pissing. This is the benefit of playing .665 ball for 130 games - you can s##t the bed in the last few weeks of the season, and the first few weeks of the season, even in the toughest division in baseball, and still make the playoffs...
I'm surprised anyone would think there's even a 20% chance he'd need a month to recover. Isn't the protocol for this type of injury to just staple the ankle back together, put the pitcher out for his next start and keep winning games?
Over on ESPN.com, Eddes has a somewhat speculative article with a decidely negative outlook for Beckett:
In fairness there are only two idiots genuinely concerned (I'm one of them). I think most Sox fans feel like the playoffs are a mortal lock.
Aha. To me "X, at best" means "X is the best outcome that could occur." Like I said, different definitions.
Well if Tampa sweeps the Sox twice, that's 7-0, so they'd only have to 6-9 in other game in that scenario.
Basically Tampa needs to go 6-1 against the Sox to make a run of it. Possible, but highly unlikely.
The Sox are something like 25:1 favorites to make the playoffs, IMHO.
As much as I'd love to see the Red Sox sit at home in October, it seems pretty much impossible. They have 7 games against the Rays in the next 2 weeks, and a current 7 game lead. Even if Tampa Bay completely destroys them head to head, and the two teams are tied going into the final 3 series of the year, Boston will win. They play 7 of their last 10 against the Orioles, while Tampa Bay plays 6 of their last 9 against the Yankees.
It is. I didn't say 10-12 was their best case though.
Or that 1978 is about to happen again, only one step further down the ladder.
P.S. I can't see them missing the postseason. There are too many weak starters out there for the Red Sox hitters to fatten up on, for a lot of 9-6 and 10-7 type wins. The bigger problem might be the overload on the bullpen.
You want to see a nightmare scenario? The Yanks go on a tear and virtually clinch the division going into their games with Tampa Bay, while the Rays have pulled within striking distance of the Red Sox. Then the Yankees decide to rest their starters in preparation for the postseason, and let the Red Sox fend for themselves.
Of course the reason that wouldn't happen, ethics aside (cough, cough), is that if the Red Sox were that crippled by that point, the Yankees would have strong motivation to face the Sox rather than the Rays in October, and would go all out against the Rays.
All kidding aside, and it is fun to speculate, but as one of you pointed out above, when you play like .670 ball for 130 games or so you get a lot of wiggle room.
Outside of Lester the SP stinks, however there will be games where the rest of the staff will only concede 4 runs or so(opponents offense has off day). The lineup is too good to not score more then 4 runs in some of these games and the games in which the staff concedes 6 or so, the lineup will score 8-9. They will cobble together 10 wins or so, end up around 95 and make the playoffs. That's the goal every year, win 95, make the playoffs and go from there.
Sure, that wasn't an overly statistical analysis, however it is logical to think this way.
And Jose, I'm only taking the piss mate, I think it's interesting there are a couple of you that are concerned at this stage, obviously I don't share you concern at this point.
Whoops, 5-0 now...
The Rays are only down 7-0 in the 7th, so they'll almost certainly win, and make up a game on Boston.
The collapse continues...
Of course if we lose tomorrow I'll be back to freaking out.
Fucking Red Sox fans.
The last time I witnessed this much paranoia was the Nixon White House.
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