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Michael Bourn is probably happy, though.
For some reason, I see the music stopping and Bourn without a chair. Like, a 1-year deal, try his luck again next year.
That's more than I'd want to pay for Hamilton. Not by tons, but by a couple million per season.
Unless this makes Peter Bourjos a trade chit.
Very surprised.
I would guess Trout in RF and Bourjos in CF.
So basically it's a good deal? If their choices were to have the Rangers sign him for $23M/year or they sign him for $25M/year I can see why they'd choose the latter option. This seems like a good deal for the Angels if you ask me. Using Swartz's numbers he just has to be a 4 WAR player for this to be a market value deal, and even if it were higher than a market value deal, it could still be good because the Angels can now trade Bourjos or Trumbo for a pitcher, in addition to signing Sanchez/Jackson/Lohse/Marcum.
My back of the envelope calculation is $5.5M per win with 5% inflation, projecting future WAR by a very simple 0.5 per season decline. That would mean Hamilton needs to project as a 5 WAR player to be worth this contract.
I'm not, like, railing against this contract for the Angels. I think it's basically market value plus a small but notable premium. The determinative question with Hamilton is health (physical and mental), and we really won't know whether this was a good bet until after he's been playing, or not playing, for a couple seasons.
I'm actually not all that jazzed by this. Probably has something to do with Hamilton's past. Maybe the fact that it wasn't a position of need. Maybe it's because my dad died a month ago and I have no one to call and talk to about this. Gonna be a heck of a middle of the lineup this year though. If they can score a ton of runs, it looks like the bullpen may be able to actually finish games this year.
Notice as well that the deal ends just as Trout hits free agency, assuming he's not locked up before that. Or more likely they structure his deal so that the dollars go way up in 2018.
EDIT: The city, not the team. Cokes all around
He should still see a lot of playing time, I'd think, as the 4th outfielder.
or the Astros.
WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?! WHAT!?!?!?!?!
It's the one who wins the most games.
The man they're paying more next year than any two other players put together, Wandy Rodriguez, might have something to say about ... never mind.
Where is Astro Boy when you need him?
You would expect a Los Angeles team to have a lot of fans among the bourjosie.
Am I way off thinking that the Rangers could spend that money on Swisher and Anibal Sanchez and be in a better position than if they brought back Hamilton?
Not sure I'd want to be Bourn. Right now any team he meets with that needs a speedy CF will be weighing Bourn's salary demands against the trade demands from a team with an extra speedy OF whose name also starts with Bour.
"It'll be incredibly hard."
My deepest sympathies Shredder.
If the Angels are paying a "premium in years", then that can show up in the Angels overpaying in year 4 in my method.
Now, it is possible that in general, recent $$/win calculations have come out a little bit too low, because they haven't accounted for the premium player / contract length issue. That would be a problem that would apply equally to Josh Hamilton and Koji Uehara.
It seems to me that you're arguing that this is a problem that applies specifically to the Hamilton contract, and I don't believe that logic follows.
2012 BB-Ref WAR
Hamilton: 3.4
Hunter: 5.5
Sorry to read that, Shredder. Well, you still have us anyway for baseball chats :)
If my opinion proves wrong, feel free to point out my error in 2018. When I'm proven right, bow down before me.
:D
The market has kind of moved around him. Upton signed before he did. Pagan resigned. Victorino signed. The Nats and Reds (who were a lesser contender for a CF/OF than other clubs) made trades. Now Hamilton, who I assume was ahead of Bourn on CF/OF FA list, has signed. Hell even Melky has signed.
I guess Boras always gets the money for his clients though.
I know we're no substitute for your dad, but I hope you can find a measure of consolation here. I offer my deepest condolences.
A couple a million a year isn't much more than a rounding error for a high revenue team. You don't want to do it for every player, but that amount shouldn't stop a team from signing a player it wants/needs.
Whatever, Shane Victorino is super good, too.
I wonder if Hamilton was pleased with the way the Rangers seemed to take every opportunity to speak ill of him this year?
from October
from July
Plus there was this...
Or drinking Red Bull until he's blind.
Either that or bump Pujols.
On second thought, probably neither of the above.
You don't get those two for a combined $25 M. Combined cost on those two will be in the $30-35 range I suspect. With Greinke off the market and most of the tradeable pitchers traded, I'm expecting Sanchez to sign for Burnett money at a minimum (5/$80).
Matt, using your numbers, if he averages 4 WAR/season (one definition of a 4-WAR player: over the course of the deal) I get $121.5M value.
Yes but this is the key question in MCoA's method (not that he invented it). To average 4 WAR/year over a 5-year deal while losing half a win a year due to age you need to start as a 5 WAR player. If Hamilton is currently a 4-WAR player then he projects to 15 WAR over the deal and this is an overpay by about 50% (after inflation taken into account).
You really have to squint to think Hamilton is a 5-WAR player right now. Yes, 15 WAR over the last 3 years but just 7 WAR the last 2 years, 16 WAR the last 4 and 21 WAR the last 5. Unless he's got another 2010 in him or you think he's now going to start playing 155-160 games a year, it's hard for me to see him being more than a 4-WAR player right now.
However, although I've never looked at it, I've got my doubts about that "5 runs per year" performance/durability decline. In 4 years Hamilton will be average? That doesn't ring true to me. I wonder how much of that 5 run discount is injury risk. Granted, in the final valuation, that might not make a difference.
The contract is too long.
Maybe but perfectly standard. Teams are clearly quite willing to sign "stars" through their age 36 season. In fact, it's nearly an industry standard now -- 36 yes, 37 no unless you're ARod, Pujols or Votto. Cabrera's next contract will probably take him past that.
MCoA, my point is that ignoring the non-linearity of wins, which shows up in contract length, gives you a too-low number for $/win, especially for high-win players. It all ends up being a wash if the high-win player signs a long contract, but five years is comparatively short for a premier player.
Not short for a premier player at this age (see above). Almost nobody is getting signed beyond their age 36 season, most are getting signed through their age 35-36 season. That may be wise or not but this is a perfectly standard contract length for this type of player at this point in his career. If he'd repeated 2010, that would be a different story. But teams are no longer interested in paying for that age 37+ non-production -- they seem to have decided that the aging curve is non-linear too.
#53 - Trout is the CF'er unless it is Bourjos. If Bourjos is traded for an arm then Trout will stay a CF'er. If Bourjos stays and Trumbo is shipped for pitching then I see Trout in LF, Bourjos in CF and Hamilton in RF.
The Angels have a lot of options. Really none of Trumbo, Bourjos or Morales should be an everyday player and Hamilton probably won't be so you should see a lot of:
Morales, Hamilton and Trumbo/Bourjos vs RHP
Trumbo, Hamilton and Bourjos vs LHP
Trumbo, Wells and Bourjos vs LHP when Hamilton needs a day off
Morales/Wells, Trumbo and Bourjos when Hamilton is hurt
Figure out of Trumbo, Bourjos, Morales and Hamilton that one guy gets 600 PA (Hamilton hopefully), two get 500 and one gets 400. Trout gets 700 and Wells mops up. Trumbo also gets some time at 1B with Pujols resting or DH. Regardless, only under bizarre circumstances does Hamilton see any time in CF.
But they could trade Trumbo or Morales or Bourjos. Since I've got pretty serious doubts about Brett Jackson, I'd be fine with a Garza for Bourjos trade I think ... assuming we can't get a Dayton Moore/Kevin Towers special for Garza. :-) But, for the Cubs, I've got no interest in Trumbo/Morales.
Hamilton: 32-36
Fielder: 28-36
Tex: 29-36
AGon: 30-36
Beltre: 32-36
Bautista: 30-34
Holliday: 30-36
Kinsler: through 35
Hunter: 32-36 (expired)
Wright: 30-37
Mauer: 28-35
The length of the contract is almost exactly determined by years until your age 36 season. Wright managed to squeeze an extra year out of the Mets. If you look at the super-long extensions, Braun & Longoria go through 36 and Tulo through 35 but Votto was able to get through 39. Presumably there was some chance that Hamilton might squeeze out that extra year if there was enough competition for his services.
In other words, I think that the teams are smart enough to know that it's likely there is going to be a year of little or no value in this 5 year deal, so to the Angels way of valuing him, it's really like 4 years, 31.25 million per year for the Angels, and if they get production out of him the 5th year, then it's a bonus and they got to defer some money.
This is the only way I can rationalize the length of some of the contracts given to guys Hamilton's age. I mean he is not going to become less injury prone for ages 32-36. So they must be thinking of it this way and just treating spreading the money out over 5 years as a way of deferring some of the cost were it just a 4 year deal.
Same with Albert. I don't think the Angels think that Albert is really going to be producting much the last 3 years of his contract. Again, I look at his deal as 7 yrs 240 million, or 34 million a year, and if he is still healthy enough to play and produce for ages 39-40-41, thats a bonus.
I realize this way of thinking doesn't jive with the dollar/war calculations...but not all dollar/war calculations are created equal.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
That would make him Judge Scalia's least favorite player.
I'd say God is a hell of an agent.
Just as I suspected - luxury tax evasion! To the Budcave!
The thinking is throw out the $X per year that we've come to rely on. The Angels think that three years of Josh Hamilton's normal level of production is worth $125MM. We never think that way because we always evaluate contracts on an $X per year approach. The problem is that our value for X is not the value that teams assign to X. If the Angels want three good years from Hamilton, it will cost $125MM period. At that point, the years don't matter, because if he sucks in year four, you cut him in year five, but hopefully you've got the value you purchased at that point. And if he doesn't suck in year four (or five), it's gravy.
Of course the other dynamic at play here is GM vs. Owner. It's easy for Jerry DiPoto to spend five (or ten, in the case of Pujols) years of Arte's money because, hey, GMs are hire and fired all the time. DiPoto won't be fired for overpaying these guys in years 5 and 10 if they win a championship in years 1, 2, or 3. It's quite similar to the dynamic between managers and relievers.
Hey, we got Jason Bay! What are you ######## about?
Shredder, RIP to your dad.
Nah. Scalia lives in 1782. Baseball hasn't been invented yet.
Oakland -31%, -5%
Safeco -12%, -8%
Minute Maid neutral, neutral
Rangers Park + 33%, +9%
The Angels may not be getting the player they think they are getting.
Wait! So todays managers are like "Hey Jimmy! Here's a ten spot, see if you can go out there and hold them down this inning."
I'll got out on a limb and guess they understand park effects. Sure, Hamilton likely won't reproduce the same raw numbers -- whoop de doo. Unless you think that's going to weigh on him psychologically.
Interesting numbers on the park effects but the key question isn't each park's impact on LHB but its (well, Anaheim only really) impact on LHB relative to RHB. If Anaheim has features which are likely to hurt Hamilton substantially more than it would hurt other batters, then it's a problem. Otherwise, he'll still project to about a 135 OPS+ with power.
With the noted health issues and the park factor what's the over/under for home runs out of Hamilton next year. (Interested as a fantasy keeper as well as an A's fan)
EDIT: I'll go with a .275/.340/.500 with 28 HR's in 140 games.
Better, Torii?
For me (A's fan, but not being an ass here) I gotta think going Trout and Hamilton in the corners with Bourjos in CF is what works best. Mix in Pujols/Trumbo/Morales as your 1B/DH and you've still got Trumbo/Wells as your 4th & 5th OF'ers.
Maybe dump Wells off on the Astros as a COF/DH and pay his salary in return for a young, merely decent 5th OF that can cover all three OF positions? Offer up Morales instead and angle for Bud Norris? Be ok with Hamilton and Trumbo in the corners, Trout in CF and move Bourjos for something?
I think another move follows
You will forgive me for filing this one away with a smile. While I believe I may have an insight or two to contribute at this site, it's not often I actually articulate it better than most any poster here could. :)
Yeah, they might get a player whose not constantly getting warn down by playing 10-8 games in 105 degree heat. He'll be fine. Raw numbers will take a hit but who cares. He plays for Jesus and the big guy certainly knows how to make park adjustments.
Jerry Dipoto understands park factors and park adjusted stats as well as any GM in the game.Trust me he sees Hamilton as a 130-140 OPS+ guy, but in a shape that he prefers for his roster construction. (Power heavy) However I guess he is far less trusting of fielding metrics which dinged Hamilton's value last year, but he is not going to play CF anymore anyway, so fielding won't be such a big negatve.
If Trout and Bourjos are the other two outfielders, the third guy won't have to do much.
I'm sure he does, but going from +33% to -22% HR takes Hamilton down from the elite to the merely very good. Problem is, they paid for elite. He's not durable and they get him from ages 32-37. I don't think this is as disastrous as the Pujols contract, but this would have been a much better contract in Arlington.
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