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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Use the View-Master Model GEE-WHIZ!
So, while our eyes tell us that Murphy is getting the job done in the field, the numbers tell us the exact opposite thing. Which one should we believe?
Sometimes the eyes show us what we want to see and believe. That is why it is important to have non-biased numbers to fall back on. Perhaps being a Murphy fan has caused me to minimize his defensive shortcomings and exaggerate his achievements in the field. David Wright seems to be doing a great job at the plate and the numbers back this up. Murphy seems to be doing fine in the field but the numbers tell us he has been terrible.
The one saving grace is that defensive numbers take longer than offensive numbers to stabilize. So, while Murphy grades out as a rotten fielder after 36 games, it will not be a huge surprise to see the numbers tell a different story by the All-Star break.
...My heart and my head tell me two different things about Murphy’s defense in 2012, leaving me ambivalent about his play. But with the Mets holding a winning record and Collins firmly in his corner, there seems little doubt that Murphy will continue to play second base. Hopefully he will continue to make highlight-reel plays like he did Thursday while also improving his range and getting to more balls than he has the first seven weeks of the season.
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1. The District Attorney Posted: May 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4135740)I don't think it'd be impossible to be a good 2B and appear workmanlike, but it's one of the positions where it's less likely to be the case, I think.
Says who? Serious question, BTW. I haven't seen much of Murphy. Is there really a consensus that he looks OK at 2B?
Also, am I the only one who's sick and tired of these eyes/numbers dichotomy articles? Aren't there times when the eyes and the stats agree? And cases where the player looks like he's stretched, but the numbers say he's getting the job done? And isn't it possible that knowing the numbers can bias the eyes?
As for looks stretched but numbers say he gets the job done, I'd put Kelly Johnson in that category, although I haven't seen much of him yet this year. Omar Infante, too.
I wouldn't say that I'm tired of it; but I do find it to be misleading, especially when one considers how much human observation goes into creating many of the leading defensive metrics in use today.
DB
An interesting question is what they will do if they have to send down or DL the struggling Ike Davis. Murphy has been a good-fielding 1B and, while maybe not ideal, his low-power 113 career OPS+ will play at 1B. But if you want Murphy to be a longer-term answer at 2B, you keep him there. (I also have no idea what options the Mets have in the minors.)
If by "the mean" you mean "0 runs", serious question: why? I would expect him to regress to HIS mean, but what is that number?
Does he really project like that? I thought defensive statistics were well nigh useless in such small samples.
According to my eyes: clearly below average, but better than I thought he'd be. The range is OK, probably a bit below average, while his fluidity and instincts are really bad.
Havens is finally back healthy, but sucking so far at AA. Sort of OT, but Flores has been moved to 3B this year; he and Marte have both started hitting again. Marte's at .323/.388/.444 in Binghamton, and still young at 21. Wilmer's only 20, and having a nice .315/.350/.490 season at St. Lucie. Odd that they haven't moved one or the other either to 1B or the OF, if they're going to try and keep Wright.
And hey, it would assure PT for Jason Bay.
Right, we don't know what his mean is. But right now he's on pace for something in the range of -16 to -25 which, I'm guessing, would make him one of the worst 2B of all-time. The worst season since 1990 is -26 and, on average, there's only one 2B a year to get to -15.* So while it's possible that Murphy is on his way to one of the worst seasons ever and/or is an historically awful 2B, our best guess is that he is not.
When I say we expect him to regress towards zero, I don't mean from his current -4 to 0 by the end of the year or even necessarily holding steady at -4. Just that he's on pace to be historically awful and he probably isn't historically awful.
*that's Chone defensive runs there, fangraphs might be different ... also I realize that most guys who might be true -15 to -25 defensive 2B never get the playing time to prove it one way or the other.
This is a guaranteed laugh every time for me. I know that makes me a child, but I don't care. I also like Wang jokes.
They're generally accurate to very broad categories even in small samples. The idea that they can be meaningfully expressed in runs is absurd (never mind that they're occasionally presented to tenths)
As for Murphy seeming adequate to many fan's eyes, I suspect that there's an aspect of his exceeding the very low expectations that most fans had.
Offerman?
Only downside is you have to watch the Mets play the Padres..
An orange on a spring?
Offerman?
I hate to inform you (and him!) but our good friend Mr. Chone considers Offerman to have been perfectly adequate at 2B (-15 runs total in about 3.5 full seasons). I know -- could there be stronger evidence that defensive stats are nuts! :-)
The -26 was owned by Tony Womack but that was a fluke (or he was learning the position maybe). Soriano pops up a couple times but Ray Durham is the -15 king with 3 seasons on the list (95, 97, 99). Over the first 5 years of his career, Durham was -75 by Rfield.
So maybe Murphy is the next Durham -- bet Mets fans would have taken that if I'd offered it at the beginning of the season. (You should probably still take it as he was 9.3 WAR over those 5 years then became a decent fielder and added heaps of WAR.)
This sums up almost exactly how I feel about the matter.
No, it's not, it's 49th in the PCL, behind (in OPS) to such luminaries as Todd Linden and Ryan Langerhans and Michael Taylor and Mike Hessman and...
Ruben Gotay (remember him?) is 58th with a nifty .365/.459/.397 line...
FWIW Pascucci is hitting .280/.365/.540 in Buffalo, good for 16th in the IL, FMart's remaining upside looks to be having Pascucci's career...
I loved Ruben. I'm glad he's still getting paid.
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