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Monday, August 20, 2012

Joura: Thoughts on Left on Base and GDPs for the Mets

If Michael the Kay shows up for today’s “No Parm - No Fowl” fest…I’ll print this out.

Sunday the Mets left 10 runners on base and lost, 5-2. The story of the game is they had their chances but could not cash in. It stood in stark contrast to Saturday’s contest, where the Mets left only three runners on base but won the game. It’s easy to view Left On Base (LOB) as a negative thing but if you are ever asked to lead the league in a negative category, make sure you pick LOB.

The Cardinals lead the National League with a 4.84 runs per game average. They also lead the league on LOB with a 7.39 mark. On the flip side, the Cubs are 15th with a 3.73 runs per game mark and 15th in LOB with a 6.25 mark. The Mets are eighth with a 4.32 runs per game mark and are third with a 7.01 LOB.

For teams without a lot of power, the mantra has always been: “Get them on, get them over, get them in.” There’s no way to get them in without getting them on in the first place. And the sad reality is that there is always going to be “waste” in this equation. Not every runner who gets on, gets in. Think of it as a cost of doing business.

...If asked to guess what happened, I would say that part of it was regression, part of it bullpen issues, part of it bad luck and part of it poor managing, both on and off the field. It’s impossible to say what percentage to put into each category and where you put the blame for the second half skid probably says a lot about how you view the game in general.

All I know is that I would rather watch a game where the Mets leave 12 men on base rather than one in which they strand two. In games where the Mets leave 12 or more batters on base, they are 5-3. In games where they strand two batters, they are 1-5.

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:15 PM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, sabermetrics

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   1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: August 20, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4212675)
I was going to talk about the 2013 Mets but decided not to after seeing the Mets owe Bay and Santana 52 million next year including buyouts. Ouch. All I want the Mets to do is either extend Wright and Dickey or trade them and start thinking about 2014 as a time to be contenders.

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