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1. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:54 PM (#3290295)-- MWE
It's a shame to see Billy go, but the way he was not hitting really didn't help his case.
It'll be interesting to see if Escobar can hit major league pitching this go-round.
Billy's just back from a sojourn to Nashville himself; he agreed to it right before Corey Hart was injured.
It makes me wonder, could the Angels, right after trading for Teixiera last year, have sent him down to Salt Lake for a few weeks and then had him as an arbitration eligible player for 2009? Hardy's season is bad enough to justify the move, but is this a loophole just waiting to be exploited by somebody?
Apparently not. Only players with under 5 years of service time can be optioned, or so is the word on the Brewers' board.
It would have been 2 years of a really pizzed off Mark Teixiera though. If Hardy rebounds this will look like a great move in 2011. The new market inefficiency: young stars slumping in their 5th big league season.
It would have to be a player you haven't used all your options on, and Tex would have qualified, having spent just one year in the minors.
The Union would surely file a grievance if a team did this for non-baseball reasons and the team would probably lose that grievance.
EDIT: I should have gone for 3
With Hardy batting .229/.300/.367, it would be easy for the Brewers to claim that the demotion is for baseball reasons.
Hardy's an interesting case, as he has only accumulated full seasons so far. Ironically, the extra year before free agency will probably boost his trade value a bit as a reclamation project this offseason, if the team decides to switch to Escobar permanently.
True, although I don't know if Escobar is a great bet to top that over the remainder of this season.
BostonMinnesota. I refuse to accept that he would be a worse option than Nick #######GreenPunto.Sometimes it's easier to edit than write your own post.
Yeah, but with his track record and his excellent glove, it's not really fair. He's a better player than Orlando Cabrera, for example. Hardy would sure look good in the Green and Gold if the Brewers have had their fill of him.
He's 2 for 4 in the majors.
Unless you're counting spring training games (which I don't, for anything).
That Anderson kid looks good.
How much do you want Hardy? ;)
Why would the Brewers eat the rest of his (significant) salary when they can just as easily put him in the minors on the off-chance he figures things out?
Once you regress his defensive numbers he is no longer above replacement. He's hitting 201/265/341. I can't imagine that's an improvement for anyone.
Various arbitrators have made it pretty clear than they're not going to second-guess teams if they have even a semi-plausible reason.
I don't think they can do that. I was under the impression that a guy can refuse an assignment and become a free agent if he is DFA'd, which if true, I expect Hall to do.
How much do you want Hardy? ;)
Who are you, Jim Bowden?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Chris Woodward currently employed by the AL wild-card leader? Also, why would we regress his defensive numbers but then fail to do the same with his offensive numbers? He's never been below replacement level in his career except for his cup of coffee in 2002. Of course, he's been barely above in several of those years, but still.
You're obviously not paying close attention to the Twins:
Nick Punto .206/.309/.251
Matt Tolbert .178/.272/.225
Alexi Casilla .172/.266/.219
As Met fan I'd take him in a heartbeat.
And IF (I really hate to say if rather than when), Reyes comes back, move him to 2B
Because the offensive numbers are representative of actual events while defensive numbers are not. Thus in actual production Hall has been a below replacement player this year.
If they put him on waivers there is no chance in hell he gets to the Red Sox.
especially considering that Escobar wasn't playing any better than Salome in AAA, and Kendall has been worse than Hardy...
Why would he do that? He'd make a lot less as a free agent than he's making off that contract.
He's not on a multi-year deal. There's no reason to let him go.
Because he'll get to keep the money he is owed on his contract, while also being able to try to get some PT in a new organization.
If you refuse an assignment and become a free agent then your contract is over. There is no contract, so there is no money.
??? I hadn't heard this before, very interesting. Could you elaborate?
That's not the way the Milwaukee media is portraying it. They are saying the Brewers ate the $11 million or so remaining on Hall's contract.
For example: "The Brewers didn’t want to make this move with him until they were totally convinced he was a lost cause for their team, we should assume. The main reason is his contract, which the Brewers now have to eat." They could easily be wrong, but I thought this was a Padilla type situation where the guy gets to keep his money while becoming a free agent.
That's because they don't understand the waiver process. They think DFA = release.
Maybe offensively, but I've been under the impression that defensively speaking, Escobar is Ozzie Smith reincarnate while Salome still needs a few shakes of Mrs. Dash.
Well, except for the whole part about Escobar being an awesome shortstop and Salome being a pretty crappy catcher....
edit: jinx!
Perhaps, but apparently Doug Melvin also doesn't understand it or he plans on giving Hall his release after the 10 days if he can't deal him:
And I'm sure the Brewers would be thrilled with that development.
I suppose the Brewers could simply buy out his contract and release him once he clears waivers, but that would be pretty dumb.
For offensive production the numerator and the denominator are known and actual quantities (hits, PA, etc.). For defensive numbers while the number of chances fielded is known (the numerator) the number of opportunities (the denominator) is an estimate. Thus while we know that Hall has been -x offensively this year we do not know that Hall has been +5 defensively. And since +5 prorated over an entire season would make Bill Hall Brooks Robinson it is pretty likely that Bill Hall is not in fact +5 so far but that it is the result of the rather large error bar that goes with defensive numbers.
So the Brewers hold on to him now and trade him in the offseason? As opposed to playing the shortstop-starved desperate teams of 2009 against each other?
If I'm the Brewers, I find as may playoff-possible teams as I can who need shortstops, and see what I can get. They were going to trade Hardy anyway--why not now? The hit his stock has taken might be balanced out by the need the playoff-hopefuls have.
But there's no way he's going to clear waivers.
If he accepts a minor-league assignment, they would still have to pay him that salary.
I can't imagine him getting past the Giants on waivers. So they'd only have the opportunity to trade him to one team.
The White Sox have players with his skill set, at a significantly lower salary. Jayson Nix is probably better than Hall at this point.
Ah. I see what you are saying and it's a very good point. However, I don't think the idea that Hall is a good defensive 3rd baseman is outlandish, he's got good numbers all the other years he's played there and he also has good numbers at short. I think it's likely that he is a good defender and a somewhat below average hitter (not as awful as he has been this year). I think he has value to many teams as a utility man, assuming he hasn't totally lost his hitting ability.
I can't imagine he'd get past Oakland or even KC in the American League, much less the Giants.
Yeah, but they could always call him up again. I don't think that is what is traditionally meant by eating a contract. I think Hall is gone, whether by trade or release.
Brewers are in the NL now. ;)
Absolutely true. But what else would the Brewers do with him? I think he's done in Milwaukee at this point.
Probably the most likely outcome would be that the Brewers eat a bunch of money to get a semi-prospect in a deal.
Melvin knows his personnel better than I do, but outright releasing Bill Hall would be dumb for a couple of reasons.
Yah. Just try to made a deal with whomever claims him is probably the way to go if they really want to dump him. Or they could just let him stew until September call ups and bring him back as a back up.
Where is Harveys during all this? Maybe Hardy was demoted to work on HW's farm, & he's busy showing the new kid ropes. (Cue: opening strains of "Maggie's Farm.")
I think it's already done if Melvin can't get a trade worked out. According to Cot's, Hall already had over 5 years of service time before this season. According to what I can find on google, a guy with more than 5 years of service time who is DFA'd can refuse the minor league assignment while keeping his team on the hook for his contract. After that, he has to be traded or released.
Cot's says:
Maggie's Farm or the banjo music in Deliverance...
Huh. That's a new one on me.
I'm fairly certain the same would go for Hall.
Well, that's just your opinion. The Brewers may be ready to give him a new start next season.
So the Brewers hold on to him now and trade him in the offseason? As opposed to playing the shortstop-starved desperate teams of 2009 against each other?
If I'm the Brewers, I find as may playoff-possible teams as I can who need shortstops, and see what I can get. They were going to trade Hardy anyway--why not now? The hit his stock has taken might be balanced out by the need the playoff-hopefuls have.
Again, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they're going to trade him. But if so, why limit themselves to one team now as opposed to every team in the offseason (when the Brewers will have more leverage, plus the chance that Hardy redeems his value any between now and the end of the season)?
I dunno....don't you think he's a little small to be a Packer?
Why would anyone claim Hall? Wouldn't the Brewers just not pull him back, and then you'd be on the hook for that $10 million he's owed? There are a few teams that probably might want him, but none bad enough to risk that.
True. But they've seemingly been trying to install Escobar all year. It might be more than just speculation.
Because teams on the cusp of a playoff berth might be willing to give up more now than in the offseason. I have a hard time believing that Hardy will redeem himself much as a part-timer in September. It's true that with more suitors, competition might get them a better deal.
I don't necessarily think they *should* trade him now--I just think that maybe a Sabean or someone like that might overpay now and not during the offseason.
I don't necessarily think they *should* trade him now--I just think that maybe a Sabean or someone like that might overpay now and not during the offseason.
As others have pointed out, he'd have to clear waivers and most likely isn't going to last to a playoff team, especially now that he'll be under team control for 2 more seasons. He might redeem himself just by hitting in AAA, and sure, if he hits in September like his career numbers why wouldn't that redeem his value? But my larger point is that right now his value is at its absolute lowest. Since the Brewers can send him down, there's no reason why they'd have to trade him. The old "Buy low, sell high" saying comes to mind.
Fact is, Milwaukee's young core (listed above) never came together for more than 3-4 months.
Yes. It's kind of sad, actually, especially when one considers that Prince is probably gone after next year. The Brewers young core turned out to be like Portugal's "Golden Generation". A couple of them turned out to be great and they did lead the team to unprecedented success, but they were still a bit of a disappointment as a whole.
I wonder if the Brewers and Phils could work out a deal around Hall and Jamie Moyer. Salaries are close, Moyer gets to make his starts and reach his incentives, and the Phils get an upgrade on Bruntlett. I'd want more than just Hall if I were the Phils, though.
And then the Brewers would (or at least should, although Melvin seems to be in panic mode) pass. They have quite enough awful starters on the team already.
Bill Hall's demise makes me sad.
Me too, and my wife. We like Bill a lot, though his play the last few years has been frustrating at times. I hope he catches on with somebody as a beloved utility player.
I still have a tough time not seeing old prospects as what they could have been,.
Weeks, Sheets, Hardy, Hart, Hall- all written off?
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