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Friday, July 20, 2012

Junk swap! Rockies trade Jeremy Guthrie to Royals for Jonathan Sanchez

Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that the Rockies have traded Jeremy Guthrie and his 6.35 ERA to the Royals for Jonathan Sanchez and his 7.76 ERA.

For weeks now the Rockies have made no secret about wanting to rid themselves of Guthrie, believing he’s particularly ill-suited for Coors Field. And last week the Royals mercifully designated Sanchez for assignment after he was the worst pitcher in baseball for a dozen starts, likely only sticking with him for that long because they traded Melky Cabrera to get him this offseason.

My cat for your dog? Sure, why not?

Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:38 AM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: colorado, general, kansas city, rockies, royals, trades

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1. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4188002)

MLB ERA leaders (minimum 7 starts)

9.00 COL Josh Outman -7
8.10 MIN Nick Blackburn - 13
7.94 CHC Chris Volstad - 9
7.76 KCR Jonathan Sanchez - 12
7.35 ARI Daniel Hudson - 9
7.04 MIN Liam Hendriks - 8
6.45 COL Alex White - 10
6.35 COL Jeremy Guthrie - 15
6.35 OAK Tyson Ross - 12
6.20 ATL Jair Jurrjens - 9
6.13 BAL Jake Arrieta - 18
6.06 SEA Blake Beavan - 13
6.00 MIN Carl Pavano - 11

2. zonk Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4188009)

I'll trade you my bad idea for your bad idea...

3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4188014)

Guthrie has been terrible at home (9.50 ERA, .720 SLG against) but decent on the road (3.67 ERA). However his K numbers have fallen quite a bit. The Royals will be paying him more than they did Sanchez, and I guess he looks like a better pitcher going forward, but honestly, what's the point? Just to get something for Sanchez? My worry is that Guthrie looks reasonably good, and they hand him a 3 year deal.

4. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4188024)

Is Sanchez going to pitch every 4th day? He could do 75 pitches in like 2 innings.

5. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4188030)

If Sanchez is really starting for the Rockies, that gives them an all-lefty rotation, with Jeff Francis, Drew Pomeranz and Christian Friedrich.

6. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4188038)

If Sanchez is really starting for the Rockies, that gives them an all-lefty rotation, with Jeff Francis, Drew Pomeranz and Christian Friedrich.

Bring back Jamie Moyer!

7. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4188061)

So I was wondering who had the most starts in a season by LHP's, and it's got to be the 1983 Yankees with 127. Their top 5 starters in GS were all lefties: Guidry, Righetti, Shane Rawley, Bob "Don't call me' Shirley, and Ray Fontenot.

8. KJOK Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4188063)

believing he’s particularly ill-suited for Coors Field.

Then why did they just trade FOR him a short time ago?

9. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4188101)

Because he was particularly ill-suited for Camden Yards then

10. puck Posted: July 20, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4188156)

believing he’s particularly ill-suited for Coors Field.

Then why did they just trade FOR him a short time ago?

Or Moscoso, who also seems to be an extreme flyball guy.

Seems like they had success with sinkerball guys (Cook, Ubaldo, Chacin and Hammel all had pretty good ground ball rates). Granted, it's not easy to continue finding enough of those guys to fill out a staff. The latest theory, apparently based on one CJ Wilson start, is that some cut fastball theory is the getting the attention of reporters, at least. Not sure about the organization. Apodaca, the pitching coach who recently stepped down, was big into getting guys to improve the downward movement on their two-seamers.

11. Jim Wisinski

Posted: July 20, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4188194)

Seems like they had success with sinkerball guys (Cook, Ubaldo, Chacin and Hammel all had pretty good ground ball rates). Granted, it's not easy to continue finding enough of those guys to fill out a staff.

They'd find it easier if they didn't trade away those guys once they have them. Not referring to Jimenez, he's looking pretty toasty, but why trade Hammel for a guy who has been essentially the same quality of pitcher over the last three seasons? Guthrie threw more innings but I assume not pitching in Coors Field and not getting pinch-hit for would account for a lot of the difference.

12. The Artist Posted: July 20, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4188198)

Aww man, I don;t want to see Jonny Sanchez pitching against the Giants! Knowing him, he'll strike out 15.

13. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: July 20, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4188199)

I once suggested that the Rockies should fill their pitching staff with guys who rely on deceptive or unusual deliveries: side-winders, submariners, pitchers with herky-jerky, stop-and-go motions like the Angels churned out every year in the early part of the decade, etc. The theory being the altitude wouldn't affect deception: the ball would be as difficult to pick up in Coors as it is in any other stadium. That was so long ago that Primer didn't have registered users; "Dan O'Dowd" replied to say that it sounded like a good idea, so he would try the plan for a week and then immediately abandon it.

A lot of these existential discussions about the impossibility of pitching in Coors lost urgency after the humidor apparently fixed things. Seeing these questions come up again is just a wonderful stroll down Nostalgia Lane.

14. davekemp Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4188231)

The theory being the altitude wouldn't affect deception: the ball would be as difficult to pick up in Coors as it is in any other stadium.

Interesting thought, actually

15. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4188241)

Jason Marquis had a great record in Coors Field.

16. bfan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4188252)

This seems like a good start to a robust MLB pass the trash game. Now, the Rockies have to move Sanchez to someone. I would suggest the Braves give up Jurrjens for him, as the Braves could use another bad lefty.

17. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4188264)

So I was wondering who had the most starts in a season by LHP's, and it's got to be the 1983 Yankees with 127. Their top 5 starters in GS were all lefties: Guidry, Righetti, Shane Rawley, Bob "Don't call me' Shirley, and Ray Fontenot.

High Heat Stats looked into that last week, and they agreed.

18. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4188267)

Jason Marquis had a great record in Coors Field.

So did Ubaldo Jiminez.

19. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4188270)

This seems like a good start to a robust MLB pass the trash game. Now, the Rockies have to move Sanchez to someone. I would suggest the Braves give up Jurrjens for him, as the Braves could use another bad lefty.

For a hot prospect like Jurrjens you might be able to get Sanchez, Outman AND Moscoso. Or ask the Twins for a package centered around Nick Blackburn and P.J. Walters.

20. zenbitz Posted: July 20, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4188271)

The good thing about Sanchez in Coors is that vintage Sanchez had an extremely low BIP rate. The, uh, less good thing all the extra baserunners.
In 230 PAA there he has 50Ks, 31BBs and an OBP against of .655 (81 tOPS+).

Most of that was back when he was kinda good though.

21. BochysFingers Posted: July 20, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4188335)

I'm sure this trade will calm the Denver area. Yeah, I'll rot in hell.

22. The elusive Robert Denby Posted: July 20, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4188368)

Getting rid of a 53 ERA+ for a 73 ERA+. Dayton Moore wins!

23. Bhaakon Posted: July 20, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4188373)

The theory being the altitude wouldn't affect deception: the ball would be as difficult to pick up in Coors as it is in any other stadium.

It would be interesting to see how valuable deception really is. I suspect that a large part of the value of unusual deliveries isn't the batter being unused to the release point of a side-armer or submariner as being unused to the movement created by those arm angles, an advantage that shrinks dramatically at altitude.

24. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: July 20, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4188434)

It would be interesting to see how valuable deception really is. I suspect that a large part of the value of unusual deliveries isn't the batter being unused to the release point of a side-armer or submariner as being unused to the movement created by those arm angles, an advantage that shrinks dramatically at altitude.

That's one of the things I keep coming back to when I convince myself the "deception" angle is a good one for the Rockies. Most of your sidearmers and submariners don't throw very hard, relying instead on movement and impeccable location. The movement, as you say, is going to be severely limited at Coors.

I was thinking about guys like Steve Reed (140 ERA+ for the Rockies) and Mike Myers (205 ERA+) as examples of the kind of pitchers who might, by nature of their deliveries, be successful at Coors. Obviously two pitchers do not a sufficient sample size make.

25. Steve Treder Posted: July 20, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4188451)

While there is certainly something to the notion that the Rockies would benefit from figuring out what type of pitcher is least affected by the harsh-for-pitchers conditions a mile above sea level, I've long suspected that at the end of the day that's a marginal issue. The primary objective of the Rockies is and always has been: have better players than the other team. They're rarely been successful in that pursuit.

26. Bob Tufts Posted: July 20, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4188459)

Sometimes junk swaps can make up for bad trades - see Leibrandt for Tufts, 1983.

27. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4188465)

My worry is that Guthrie looks reasonably good, and they hand him a 3 year deal.

Sounds like you're getting the hang of this Dayton Moore thing.

28. Obo Posted: July 20, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4188466)

I see the Royals got Vida Blue as a throw-in when they traded for you originally, Bob.

29. Bob Tufts Posted: July 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4188510)

I see the Royals got Vida Blue as a throw-in

Some Royals fans saw me as the throw-up part of the deal.

30. puck Posted: July 20, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4188520)

I was thinking about guys like Steve Reed (140 ERA+ for the Rockies) and Mike Myers (205 ERA+) as examples of the kind of pitchers who might, by nature of their deliveries, be successful at Coors. Obviously two pitchers do not a sufficient sample size make.

Brian Fuentes isn't a submariner, but he fits, I think. OTOH, there's also Javier Lopez and Byung Hyun Kim. But you could say those guys were just getting started/washed up, respectively.

31. Walt Davis Posted: July 21, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4188566)

the Rockies have traded Jeremy Guthrie and his 6.35 ERA to the Royals for Jonathan Sanchez and his 7.76 ERA.

No doubt some jackass on Wall Street somehow made millions on this swap.

I thought we had figured out what sort of pitcher "succeeds" at Coors -- keep the f'ing ball down. Hard sinkers, hard split fingers, probably the right sort of changeup.

32. MM1f Posted: July 21, 2012 at 02:33 AM (#4188580)

I thought we had figured out what sort of pitcher "succeeds" at Coors -- keep the f'ing ball down. Hard sinkers, hard split fingers, probably the right sort of changeup.

Aaron freakin' Cook. Hard sinker, over n over n over n over again. It was kind of a poor man's Mariano repitoire. You knew it was coming, you just couldn't do much with it. You could put it in play, but it wouldn't go very far.

No one dreams up a starting pitcher who relies so much on one pitch, but when your one pitch is a hard sinker you can throw for strikes, it works.

33. escabeche Posted: July 21, 2012 at 08:40 AM (#4188611)

Guthrie was pretty consistently effective for years in Baltimore. He's having a bad season, but he's hardly trash.

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Friday, July 20, 2012

Junk swap! Rockies trade Jeremy Guthrie to Royals for Jonathan Sanchez

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