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Thursday, April 24, 2014

Just how great can Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons be? | SportsonEarth.com : Howard Megdal Article

Simmons is certainly entertaining.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 24, 2014 at 02:53 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: andrelton simmons, braves, fielding

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   1. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: April 24, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4693409)
I read that as "Howard Megdal Attacks." Which is really, really funny.
   2. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:03 PM (#4693434)
Between his age, his other-worldly defense, and his cromulent but improving offense, does anyone else think he can put up a 10 WAR season at his peak?
   3. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:07 PM (#4693441)
Not me. Probably has a better shot than Ruben Tejada though.
   4. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:13 PM (#4693450)
2- I would not be shocked. I'm actually surprised that he's not a better hitter. He looks the part for sure, sort of reminds me of Alex Rios at bat (just the swing and stance and body).
   5. Publius Publicola Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:19 PM (#4693457)
If he ever gets as good as Tulowitski is right now, he'll be a huge success.
   6. gehrig97 Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:21 PM (#4693460)
@4: Just caught the Braves-Mets last weekend. I was surprised at how big Simmons is... he certainly seems to have the physical tools to be a legit hitter.
   7. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4693469)
10 WAR might be pushing it. But a few 7 or 8 WAR seasons aren't outside the realm of possibilities. Which would be really cool.

   8. spike Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:37 PM (#4693483)
His bat is very hard to miss. If he can gain enough strike zone discipline, he's already got the power to be a well above average hitter
   9. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 24, 2014 at 04:39 PM (#4693488)
Simmons can put a jolt in a pitch when it's elevated (50 extra-base hits last year), he makes contact absurdly well for someone who swings as hard as he does and he can run a bit; he had six triples last year, two in just 168 at-bats in 2012 and two so far this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was perpetually near the top of that list.

Now, his swing is long and loopy as hell, and he was basically a pop-up machine last year. He also has too many at-bats that start with him thinking, "I'm going to swing at this pitch no matter what," which results in some ugly-ass hacks. But with his speed and contact skills, he might be able to consistently hit around .270-.280 while notching a couple of .300 seasons when the BABIP gods are on his side. He won't need to hit much to be a tremendously valuable player.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: April 25, 2014 at 01:09 AM (#4693773)
Ozzie's best years were +10 Rbat. Combo that with his best defensive season and he'd have had about 8.5 WAR. Of course he wasn't saving 371 runs per season like Simmons.

The most Rfield by a SS with more than 8 WAR was Terry Turner (who?) with 34 Rfield and 9.4 WAR in 1906. Cal had 10 and 11 WAR seasons with 23 Rfield and Banks had a 10 WAR season with 23.

After Turner, the most WAR by a SS in a 30 Rfield season was Art Fletcher with 7.4 in 1917 and Ozzie with 7.3 in 1989. Simmons had 6.9 last year with 41 and Tulo had 6.8 in 2007 with 31. I'm guessing somewhere around 7 is his cap unless you really think he's going to save 41 on a regular basis (+1 so far this year).

Turner was a very solid player but his next best WAR was 4.3. Still 38 WAR in 6600 PA but a little less than half his games at SS (2B, 3B). JAWS puts him #49 on the "SS" list, a bit behind Tulo, a bit ahead of Hanley ... right next to Dick Groat (good comp but he stayed at SS) and John Valentin (better peak, better hitter, shorter career).

Very oddly, according to the transactions, Pitt signed him on Aug 25, 1901 and released him two days later. Obviously something was up with that (but not mentioned in his SABR bio). Granted, the 1901 Pirates had some late bloomer bouncing between SS and the OF and Tommy Leech at 3B but clearly you trade the late bloomer who's already passing his peak. :-) The Indians got him in Aug 1903 in a _trade_ with Columbus of the AA. Columbus got an old, used up SS/3B and a maybe pretty good pitcher named Gus Dorner.

Dorner went 18-10 for them in 1904 and 29-8 in 1905. Purchased by the Reds before the 1906 season but traded to Boston in May, he went ... wait for it ... 8-26. From 29-8 to 8-26 in one year -- baseball is a cruel game. Maybe he was injured.

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