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Thursday, January 31, 2013

Justice: Are the Yankees now a last-place team?

And Justice, for all: Your standings are out of order! Your standings are out of order! The whole article is out of order!

The Blue Jays have gotten way better, adding 600 innings to their rotation and Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera to their lineup. The Red Sox filled a bunch of hole without spending outrageous money and got a new manager, John Farrell, who should help change the environment. The Rays are significantly different and still good. The Orioles were quieter, but if some of those young pitchers take a step forward, they could very well be right back in contention. GM Dan Duquette did an amazing job acquiring talent last season, so it would be a mistake to count them out.

With Opening Day still 60 days away, here’s a quick power ranking of the AL East:

1. Blue Jays

2. Rays

3. Yankees

4. Orioles

5. Red Sox

But the division is so tight that the Rays, Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox seem capable of finishing anywhere from first to fifth. Nothing in this division should be a surprise.

Now about the Yankees.  I count 112 home runs gone from their 2012 lineup with no dramatic addition.

Repoz Posted: January 31, 2013 at 08:23 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RollingWave Posted: January 31, 2013 at 08:42 PM (#4359665)
It's the Yankees, any random lefty they insert will hit 10 dinger in YS at least.

That said, in the worst case obviously they could finish last. but that's not saying much. nor is the Jays or Rays as separted from the pack as they claim.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: January 31, 2013 at 08:48 PM (#4359673)
The Blue Jays have gotten way better, adding 600 innings to their rotation

Wow, they won't need a reliever all year!

Melky Cabrera

I find it interesing -- many believe Bonds et al achieved greatness by juicing but I'm supposed to believe that a "clean" Melky will be a significant addition? (Not necessarily meant as a dig at Justice, I don't recall where he sits on our fabulous PED merry-go-round.)

   3. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 31, 2013 at 08:57 PM (#4359678)
The Red Sox filled a bunch of hole without spending outrageous money and got a new manager, John Farrell, who should help change the environment.


The Red Sox swapped out good players for mediocre ones, made an uninspired pick for manager, and don't seem to understand that "environment" is never a problem that leads to wins and losses on the field.

The Red Sox will suck this year.
   4. tfbg9 Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:03 PM (#4359684)
The Red Sox will suck this year.


Hey! That's my schtick!
   5. Kurt Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:14 PM (#4359689)
Even less-than-dramatic additions to their lineup should hit more than zero home runs, right?
   6. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:18 PM (#4359694)
many believe Bonds et al achieved greatness by juicing

There are probably people who think Bonds was not already an all-time great, but those people must not have been paying attention.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:23 PM (#4359697)
The Red Sox swapped out good players for mediocre ones


Just at 1B, right? or am I forgetting someplace?

made an uninspired pick for manager, and don't seem to understand that "environment" is never a problem that leads to wins and losses on the field.


These are somewhat contradictory sentiments.
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:23 PM (#4359698)
The Red Sox filled a bunch of hole without spending outrageous money and got a new manager, John Farrell, who should help change the environment.

That seems like an argument for the Red Sox being even more profitable, rather than actually contending.
   9. DA Baracus Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:35 PM (#4359704)
The Blue Jays have gotten way better, adding 600 innings to their rotation


Ugh. No they did not. The Blue Jays had 916 innings pitched by starters last year. They replaced (and upgraded) about 550 of those and added roughly 60-90 innings. If they added 600 innings they would have a mind boggling 1516 innings by starters, the most last year was 1033.
   10. Darren Posted: January 31, 2013 at 09:59 PM (#4359716)
My favorite Richard Justice story is when he thought the Yankees looked like a last place team.
   11. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 31, 2013 at 10:40 PM (#4359745)
Justice: Are the Yankees now a last-place team?


Motherfucking plagiarist, I've been saying that for the past month or more.
   12. Dale Sams Posted: January 31, 2013 at 10:56 PM (#4359756)
Hey! That's my schtick!


What?? I thought *I* was the guy getting blocked for running it into the ground.

Regardless...

Jays 91-71
Yanks 88-74
Rays 87-75
Orioles 84-78
Red Sox. 77-85
   13. Paul D(uda) Posted: January 31, 2013 at 11:10 PM (#4359762)
Question about juicing. So Melky juices, bulks up, and gets caught. Is the assumption that without th3 juice he loses all the muscle mass?
   14. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: February 01, 2013 at 12:09 AM (#4359789)
If they added 600 innings they would have a mind boggling 1516 innings by starters

Which would be especially impressive since 162*9 = 1458.
   15. DA Baracus Posted: February 01, 2013 at 12:29 AM (#4359796)
Which would be especially impressive since 162*9 = 1458.


Like I said, mind boggling. 58 extra innings, a few of those games will go past 9 innings. Move over Jack Morris.
   16. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 01, 2013 at 01:07 AM (#4359805)
Jays 91-71
Yanks 88-74
Rays 87-75
Orioles 84-78
Red Sox. 77-85


At this stage, as a Sox fan, I'd be happy just to finish in 4th...honestly.
   17. vivaelpujols Posted: February 01, 2013 at 02:24 AM (#4359819)
Yankees are clearly ahead of the Orioles and Red Sox on paper like he says, and yeah random variation means those teams could finish ahead of the Yankees, but it also means the Yankees could finish in first place. In other words, Richard Justice is a moron.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: February 01, 2013 at 03:13 AM (#4359824)
############# plagiarist, I've been saying that for the past month or more.

The old journalistic adage: if you ain't stealing off the internet, you ain't competing.
   19. HOLLA(R) Posted: February 01, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4360095)
Even less-than-dramatic additions to their lineup should hit more than zero home runs, right?


That depends. Are the additions Ben Revere?
   20. Curse of the Andino Posted: February 01, 2013 at 06:02 PM (#4360368)
Orioles 84-78


Your keyboard to God's Blackberry. I loved that 2012 team to death, but if any squad seems likely to regress a little...

/It all depends on the pitching. And the LF/RF/DH/2B.
   21. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 01, 2013 at 06:51 PM (#4360391)
The Red Sox swapped out good players for mediocre ones, made an uninspired pick for manager, and don't seem to understand that "environment" is never a problem that leads to wins and losses on the field.

The Red Sox will suck this year.


Which is essentially what the RedSox fan in my office said... funny his name is not Ray

anyway, Orioles, 2012 Pythag 82-80, actual 93-69 (+11)

That is a lot to exceed your pythag by

ERA+ of 109 (5th tie), 6th in AL in ERA at 3.90

K/BB: 2.45- league average? 2.45
k/9: 7.1, league 7.4
bb/9: 2.9, league 3.0
Hr/9: 1.1, league 1.1

essentially they had the peripherals of a perfectly AVERAGE 100 ERA+ staff-
which is not to say BABIP luck- if a whole team does that I think the first thing you'd look at would be team defense

def Efficiency was .699, league was .694, not a big deal

with runners in scoring position they gave up an OPS of .721, league was .745, with runners on they were likewise 20 points better than league (Overall they were 10 better than league)

Being better than league with respect to def efficiency is likely team defense- being better in "clutch" situations likely does not indicate the ability to do that in the future...

They had some luck as far as runs scored/ runs allowed, maybe their "true talent" pythag was 80-82 not 82-80

   22. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: February 01, 2013 at 06:56 PM (#4360396)
Well, the 2013 Yankees are currently tied for last.
   23. SM Posted: February 01, 2013 at 07:28 PM (#4360417)
It really does baffle me that the Orioles have done zip this offseason. You finally have a good team for the first time in 15 years, a chance to send a message to all the lapsed fans, plus Boston and NY look weak - this is your shot!
   24. beer on a stick Posted: February 01, 2013 at 11:42 PM (#4360519)
It really does baffle me that the Orioles have done zip this offseason. You finally have a good team for the first time in 15 years, a chance to send a message to all the lapsed fans, plus Boston and NY look weak - this is your shot!


Maybe their time was three months ago, but now they need to play with what they got. I think they'll be OK. It's going to be a fun division to watch though.
   25. sunnyday2 Posted: February 02, 2013 at 03:21 AM (#4360565)
Oh for chrissakes, man up!
   26. BDC Posted: February 02, 2013 at 10:31 AM (#4360598)
The Orioles are surprisingly young, though many have lots of experience, and none of them really had an MVP season last year. If they all have career years, they could win an amazing number of games after standing pat. Of course, everybody but the Astros can say the same, wishful thinking being easy in February – but one sort of understands why the Orioles didn't charge around signing FAs just for the heck of it.
   27. jyjjy Posted: February 02, 2013 at 10:39 AM (#4360606)
RLYW had CAIRO putting the Yankees third as of a few days ago;

http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.3_and_still_too_early_and_mostly_useless_2013_projected_

Signing Hafner could put them in second if it was rerun right now.

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