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Friday, April 19, 2019

Justin Verlander wants to be the Tom Brady of baseball

It’s Justin Verlander’s 36th birthday.

The day he officially moves closer to 40 years old than 30. The day he creeps nearer to middle age and further away from the best physical version of himself. Not that you’d ever know it.

“Happy birthday,” shouts pitcher Brad Peacock, who’s seated on one of the tan leather couches in the middle of the Houston Astros’ spring training clubhouse. It’s 8:16 on a balmy south Florida morning, Feb. 20, and Verlander has just entered the locker room. Dressed in a powder blue, collared shirt and navy shorts, he is a whirlwind alpha-dog presence.

“Twenty-seven again,” shouts Verlander with a broad and mischievous grin. Though the comment is directed at Peacock, he speaks loudly enough for everyone in the spacious room to hear. “Prime of my career.”

Wait a minute- this isn’t some sort of gross insult, but something one would want to be?

 

QLE Posted: April 19, 2019 at 09:49 PM | 117 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: justin verlander, tom brady

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   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 20, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5833716)
Verlander significantly trails in the winning championships category, but I’d give him the slight edge on the marrying a model category.
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: April 20, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5833720)
The day he officially moves closer to 40 years old than 30.


Wasn't that day a year ago?
   3. puck Posted: April 20, 2019 at 11:19 AM (#5833722)
Wait a minute- this isn’t some sort of gross insult, but something one would want to be?


27 yrs old, or the Tom Brady of football? Those are odd insults.
   4. DanG Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5833735)
Verlander compared to a recent first-ballot hall of famer:

Player            WAR WAA/pit ERA+   SO   W   L     IP From   To   Age
Roy Halladay     65.5    40.5  131 2117 203 105 2749.1 1998 2013 21
-36
Justin Verlander 64.6    38.6  126 2744 207 123 2789.0 2005 2019 22
-36 
   5. Darren Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5833743)
I would love to see someone try to play into their mid-40s. It seems like the guys who have been really good in their late 30s recently have decided to hang it up--Ortiz and Beltre. With modern training techniques, etc, it would be cool to see if someone could last until, say, 45 at a very level.
   6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5833749)
The oldest player in the National League right now is Eric Kratz at age 39. It feels shocking that there isn’t a single 40 year old in the whole league.
   7. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:46 PM (#5833752)
Being the Justin Verlander of baseball doesn't seem half bad.
   8. JRVJ Posted: April 20, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5833773)
1, I'm partial to Ms. Bundchen, but YMMV.

In any case, Verlander is very, very close to the HoF, and while he almost certainly won't catch Brady in WS titles, it's got to be good to be him.
   9. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 20, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5833794)
I would love to see someone try to play into their mid-40s.

Did you miss the end of Nolan Ryan's career? A few highlights:

1990 -- Age 43: Finished 25th in MVP voting. 30 starts, 13-9, 3.44 ERA, 114 ERA+, 2.87 FIP. Led AL with 232 K's, 1.034 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 6.0 H/9. Threw 6th career no-hitter June 11 at Oakland striking out 14. Threw 1-hit shutout April 26 vs White Sox striking out 16, walking 2, and winning by a 1-0 score. Pitched 10 scoreless innings in August 17 start against White Sox allowing 3 hits and striking out 15 while walking none. Threw 5 no-hit innings in Opening Day start against Toronto. Had a total of 8 10-strikeout games.

1991 -- Age 44: 27 starts, 12-6, 2.91 ERA, 140 ERA+, 2.75 FIP. 3rd in AL with 203 K's. Led AL with 1.006 WHIP, 5.3 H/9, and 10.6 K/9. Threw 7th career no-hitter with 16 strikeouts May 1 vs Toronto, a game I decided not to attend because it was late in the semester at UT-Arlington, I had senior Electrical Engineering projects due, and they were running an Arlington Appreciation Night promotion with lots of free tickets given away locally, insuring a packed house that I didn't want to deal with. I've regretted that decision since I turned on the TV after waking up from a nap to find Nolan giving a live interview from the dugout and the first thing I heard was along the lines of, "I'm just so happy to finally get one here for all these great fans in Arlington..." in his Texas drawl and I immediately knew what history I had missed. Anyway, back to the topic at hand...

1992 -- Age 45: 27 starts, 5-9, 3.72 ERA, 103 ERA+, 3.08 FIP. Still had enough in the tank to average 9.0 K/9 and 7.9 H/9.

1993 -- Age 46. The end of the line. 13 starts in an injury-plagued season, 5-5, 4.88 ERA. Retired no batters in final start going 1B - W - W - W - Grand Slam then tore an elbow ligament on his 2nd pitch to the next batter, and that's a wrap, folks.
   10. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 20, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5833814)
Pitched 10 scoreless innings in August 17 start against White Sox allowing 3 hits and striking out 15 while walking none.


I was at that game.
   11. Baldrick Posted: April 20, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5833820)
The day he officially moves closer to 40 years old than 30

Yeah, this is not right.
   12. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 20, 2019 at 07:38 PM (#5833865)
while he almost certainly won't catch Brady in WS titles, it's got to be good to be him


But Verlander's way ahead of Brady in WS titles, 1 to 0!

Serves Brady right for quitting on the Expos.
   13. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: April 20, 2019 at 09:48 PM (#5833876)
How do you deflate a baseball?
   14. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 20, 2019 at 10:31 PM (#5833880)
Nolan Ryan is the most interesting player of my lifetime. The numbers - both the counting stats and the rate stats - are crazy all the day through age 44. Here's a fun thing involving Ryan:

He never won a Cy Young, but has the 5th-most Cy Young "shares" of any pitcher never to win a CYA. The other four are three starters, and one closer. Who are they?

   15. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 20, 2019 at 10:36 PM (#5833883)
How do you deflate a baseball?


Make a small incision, then pull out some of the yarn.
   16. Sweatpants Posted: April 20, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5833885)
He never won a Cy Young, but has the 5th-most Cy Young "shares" of any pitcher never to win a CYA. The other four are three starters, and one closer. Who are they?
The reliever has to be Rivera. I'll guess Kevin Brown and Mussina for the starters, but I can't think of a third.
   17. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: April 20, 2019 at 10:43 PM (#5833886)

He never won a Cy Young, but has the 5th-most Cy Young "shares" of any pitcher never to win a CYA. The other four are three starters, and one closer. Who are they?


I am going to guess Schilling, Mussina, Blyleven, and Rivera.
   18. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 20, 2019 at 11:57 PM (#5833898)
Not Mussina, Blyleven, Kevin Brown, or (surprisingly) Rivera.

But Schilling is correct. He has the third-most CYA shares of anybody who never won one.

A hint:The other two starters are active in 2019. The closer is not.
   19. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:01 AM (#5833899)
Dan Quisenberry came in around 3rd for the Cy Young every year for a few years-- but I don't know if his #1 AL reliever prime was long enough to really rack up the share points.

For starters, Dave Stewart maybe? Same question: what did he do outside of those four consecutive years, Cy-wise?
   20. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:03 AM (#5833900)
A hint:The other two starters are active in 2019.

I wish to retract my Dave Stewart guess.
   21. Greg Pope Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:23 AM (#5833901)
Schilling is the first that came to my mind. Didn't he finish second to Randy Johnson three straight years?

The others are active? I'm guessing Lester and Sale.
   22. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 21, 2019 at 07:47 AM (#5833906)
Three of the four names have now been mentioned:

Sale has the second-highest among non-winners.
Schilling is 3rd.
Quisenberry is 4th. From 1982 through 1985, he finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd.
But the all-time leader in CYA shares, without winning the award, is yet unnamed. And he happens to still be active. And I wouldn't have guessed this name if you had given me 10 guesses...
   23. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 21, 2019 at 07:47 AM (#5833907)
Three of the four names have now been mentioned:

Sale has the second-highest among non-winners.
Schilling is 3rd.
Quisenberry is 4th. From 1982 through 1985, he finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd.
But the all-time leader in CYA shares, without winning the award, is yet unnamed. And he happens to still be active. And I wouldn't have guessed this name if you had given me 10 guesses...
   24. JJ1986 Posted: April 21, 2019 at 08:37 AM (#5833908)
Wainwright?
   25. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 21, 2019 at 08:49 AM (#5833910)
Adam Wainwright is correct!

He's finished second twice, and third twice.

In three of the four years he's received Cy Young votes, he has received a total of one first-place vote - but he was consistently getting 2nd and 3rd place votes those seasons, so his point total in the voting was strong.

In 2009, he actually got the most first-place votes, but finished...third. It was virtually a three-way tie, but he finished behind Lincecum and Carpenter.
   26. Darren Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:45 AM (#5833914)
Did you miss the end of Nolan Ryan's career? A few highlights:


Yes, I missed it. Who's Nolan Ryan? Oh wait, I'm reading the highlights now. This fellow sure did stick around a long time. I guess if someone did it 20+ years ago, no need for it ever to happen again.
   27. Greg Pope Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5833915)
In 2009, he actually got the most first-place votes, but finished...third. It was virtually a three-way tie, but he finished behind Lincecum and Carpenter.

A virtual three way tie, voted on by 30 people. This is why we shouldn't use awards (at least Cy Young and MVP) when discussing greatness.
   28. Itchy Row Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5833936)
The oldest player in the National League right now is Eric Kratz at age 39. It feels shocking that there isn’t a single 40 year old in the whole league.
Kratz is still two months away from his 39th birthday, so there aren’t even any 39-year-olds in the league right now.
   29. Walt Davis Posted: April 21, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5833994)
Have we forgotten Bartolo so soon? Jamie Moyer? Clemens?
   30. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: April 21, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5834007)
If anyone in the NL wants Fernando Rodney (42), please take him.
   31. cardsfanboy Posted: April 21, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5834029)
I thought Derek Jeter was the Tom Brady of Baseball, great player, but overrated because of the fact that he had a lot of great teammates. (note Brady is better relative to the greats than Jeter actually is, but still massively overrated because of the quality of his roster)
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: April 21, 2019 at 10:39 PM (#5834030)
But the all-time leader in CYA shares, without winning the award, is yet unnamed. And he happens to still be active. And I wouldn't have guessed this name if you had given me 10 guesses...


I didn't see this thread in time, but yes that was a pretty easy guess for me. Since it's something I mention fairly frequently.
   33. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 22, 2019 at 01:16 AM (#5834053)

I thought Derek Jeter was the Tom Brady of Baseball, great player, but overrated because of the fact that he had a lot of great teammates.


Tom Brady has had a lot of great teammates???
   34. Zonk Totally Exonerated by Total BS Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:02 AM (#5834061)
I want to be the Justin Verlander of Kate Upton beaus....
   35. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5834062)
[33] When he won the back to back titles early in his career his team had an all time great defense. His later titles included solid defenses and arguably the greatest tight end of all time. His most recent title probably had the weakest team around him among any of the teams that won conference titles, but still had some solid players. Having Billechick as a head coach helps, too.
   36. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:13 AM (#5834063)
His most recent title probably had the weakest team around him among any of the teams that won conference titles,


His most recent team had the weakest Tom Brady.
   37. JJ1986 Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:31 AM (#5834067)
I think it's clear that 2001 through '04 or '05 Tom Brady was overrated, especially vis a vis Peyton Manning, but it would be hard for the current version to be overrated or the whole career player at this point. And I hate him.
   38. Tim M Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5834080)
I don't know much about football, but I hear it said by serious fans that neither Brady nor his teammates were "all that great", it is in fact Belichick who is the great one, he puts together teams and plays and plans that are so good the players are almost interchangeable. Besides Brady & a couple guys like Gronk and that kicker, they seem to be a whole new team every year. And yea it's a sample size of 4 games, but some random backup QB came in & went 3-1 during the deflate suspension. That kind of thing. Seems plausible to me.
   39. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5834084)
[36] Nah, the year he beat Seattle in the SB he seemed kind noodle armed the whole year and he underthrew quite a few passes that year. This was especially noticeable in the playoff game against Baltimore. And in the Super Bowl, the game plan was built around short passes. I thought he was getting old and his arm was getting weaker, but then he appeared the regain his lost arm strength. Then again, if he really was using under-inflated balls that year and not just in the AFC title game, that would explain why his deep balls kept coming up short.
   40. JL72 Posted: April 22, 2019 at 11:05 AM (#5834090)
[38] I would say that Brady is one of the greats (even if he has not been great every single season).

I don't think that Brady is the GOAT because I do think that Belichick is also one of the all time greats and I don't know how to separate that.
   41. PreservedFish Posted: April 22, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5834095)
If Tom Brady and Bill Belichik were both available in the 2000 draft, I'd take Belichik first.
   42. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 22, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5834144)

I would love to see someone try to play into their mid-40s.

Me too. In part because that seems like the only way someone is going to get to 300 wins these days.
   43. base ball chick Posted: April 22, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5834155)
Darren Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5833743)

I would love to see someone try to play into their mid-40s

bartolo
jamie moyer (went to 49!!!)
clemens
darren oliver

and we can't forget barry lamar

but i doubt we're gonna see this much any more
   44. Greg Pope Posted: April 22, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5834163)
Agree on Brady/Belichick. In his own era, Brady is (should be) behind Manning, Rodgers, and Brees. Brady is a great QB, but he shouldn't be in the discussion for greatest of all time.

Belichick takes a bunch of nobodies and makes the teams great. He is on the short list for greatest coach of all time and I'd give it to him.

some random backup QB came in & went 3-1 during the deflate suspension.

Don't forget Brady's injury year where Matt Cassel stepped in and they won 11 games. Matt Cassel.
   45. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5834167)
He is on the short list for greatest coach of all time and I'd give it to him.


He's on the short list for greatest coach in any North American sport. I'd put him 1 and Popovich 2.
   46. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:16 PM (#5834177)
Don't bag on Matt Cassel. He won a division title with the Chiefs. The league figured him out pretty quickly after that, but he was a pretty good QB for a few years. And don't forget that he had Moss and Welker to throw to that year. Brady went 16-0 with a similar team the previous year.
   47. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:17 PM (#5834178)
Don't forget Brady's injury year where Matt Cassel stepped in and they won 11 games. Matt Cassel.

Roughly the same team and coach went 16-0 the previous season and broke all the offensive records. That's kind of a big difference.

EDIT: Coke to JCI
   48. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5834183)
In his own era, Brady is (should be) behind Manning, Rodgers, and Brees. Brady is a great QB, but he shouldn't be in the discussion for greatest of all time.

Anyone still going with this started looking silly years ago. I mean, Drew Brees has won 8 playoff games. EIGHT!

I don't pretend to be able to parse Manning vs Brady, but I can't imagine even entertaining the discussion beyond that.
   49. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5834184)
Why is only the pre-Cassel season counted in those comparisons? In 2009, with Brady, they won one fewer game than they did with Cassel.

   50. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5834186)
Why is only the pre-Cassel season counted in those comparisons? In 2009, with Brady, they won one fewer game than they did with Cassel.

The point is to dismiss the comparison, because it doesn't seem particularly meaningful.
   51. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5834189)
Anyone still going with this started looking silly years ago.
I mean, I'm certainly willing to listen to an argument that someone else is the GOAT. Except from someone who dismissively says Brady "shouldn't be in the discussion." If you actually believe that I don't really trust any other thoughts you might have.
   52. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5834191)
The point is to dismiss the comparison, because it doesn't seem particularly meaningful.


Then why did you bring up the previous season?

And I don't know why it isn't relevant to the discussion of how much is Brady, how much is Belichick. When the Colts lost Peyton Manning, they went from a 10-6 playoff team to the worst team in the league. That wasn't an accident.
   53. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5834193)
Then why did you bring up the previous season?

To highlight the lack of meaning in "but Matt Cassel went 11-5!"
   54. Nasty Nate Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5834194)
...they went from a 10-6 playoff team to the worst team in the league. That wasn't an accident.
Freudian slip?
   55. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5834198)
To highlight the lack of meaning in "but Matt Cassel went 11-5!"


I still don't know how this was accomplished by 46 and 47.

The 07 Pats were indeed historically great, and suffered a sizable drop when they went from Brady to Cassel (which is an argument against but "Cassel went 11-5").

However, the 09 Pats went 10-6 with Brady, one-half game* worse than they did under Cassel. That's an argument supporting the idea that the Pats' success is more coach than QB.

You should either bring up both or neither. Bringing up just one isn't a fair way of highlighting anything.

* Brady really should get credit for the Opening Day win in 2008.

   56. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5834209)
I still don't know how this was accomplished by 46 and 47.

The 07 Pats were indeed historically great, and suffered a sizable drop when they went from Brady to Cassel (which is an argument against but "Cassel went 11-5).

A: But Cassel went 11-5!

B: Well if you think that's meaningful, wait until you find out what their record was the previous year!

If I would have worded it more tongue-in-cheek it would have perhaps been more obvious, I guess. But that's my basic stance.

Anyway, different schedules, teams, league contexts, guys at different point in their careers, etc. I'm genuinely not sure I've ever seen this argument structure used in any other circumstance except in an attempt to downplay Brady's value. Like, what is even the point of pointing out that they went 10-6 with Brady the year after Cassel went 11-5? Is the suggestion that Cassel could have done that, too, that there is no significant difference?

Also, Cassel was pretty good in multiple other seasons! And Manning was replaced by Dan Orlovsky or some such. These are not meaningful arguments.

   57. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5834210)
When the Colts lost Peyton Manning, they went from a 10-6 playoff team to the worst team in the league. That wasn't an accident.


Well, to be scrupulously fair, the Patriots went from Brady to a guy who turned out to be a Pro Bowl QB later in his career. The 2011 Colts' first three games were started by the 39-year-old Kerry Collins (the last three starts of his career), who got benched before the end of the third game. The remainder were started by two guys who never won an NFL start outside of that season.
   58. TDF, trained monkey Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5834217)
I thought Derek Jeter was the Tom Brady of Baseball, great player, but overrated because of the fact that he had a lot of great teammates.
The arguments against the greatness of the individuals on the mid-90's Cowboys goes something like this:

Aikman wasn't really that good because his receivers made him look good, and Smith and the O line were so good.
Smith wasn't really that good because the O line was great and the passing game so effective.
Irvin/Novacek weren't really that good because Smith took pressure off the passing game by being so good.
The O line wasn't really that good because Smith and the passing game just made them look good.
   59. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 05:00 PM (#5834251)

Well, to be scrupulously fair, the Patriots went from Brady to a guy who turned out to be a Pro Bowl QB later in his career. The 2011 Colts' first three games were started by the 39-year-old Kerry Collins (the last three starts of his career), who got benched before the end of the third game. The remainder were started by two guys who never won an NFL start outside of that season.


True. The Colts' QB options that year were truly abysmal. Cassel was better, even if he wasn't really worthy of a Pro Bowl spot with KC.

The arguments against the greatness of the individuals on the mid-90's Cowboys goes something like this:


There's probably some truth to all of it, though Aikman's rep was the one that was truly propped up by the others.
   60. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 22, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5834256)

Why is only the pre-Cassel season counted in those comparisons? In 2009, with Brady, they won one fewer game than they did with Cassel.


So, in 2007, 2008 and 2009 the Patriots didn't change much on offense. In particular, they had the same offensive line for those three years. Here is their QB DVOA:

2007: 54.1%
2008: 1.1%
2009: 40.4%

Here is their offensive DVOA:

2007: 43.5%
2008: 12.5%
2009: 26.4%

And I'd argue Brady wasn't back to 100% physically in 2009, but no matter.



   61. Itchy Row Posted: April 22, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5834260)
* Brady really should get credit for the Opening Day win in 2008.
He got hurt halfway through the first quarter when there was no score in the game.
   62. Red Voodooin Posted: April 22, 2019 at 06:12 PM (#5834262)
Brady is a great QB, but he shouldn't be in the discussion for greatest of all time.


Not in the discussion? This is ridiculous. The amount of mental gymnastics it takes to talk yourself out of Brady as the best (or at worst top 2-3) is exhausting. If you add up all the best anti-Brady arguments, mix em up and spill it out, you can't come up with anything other than #2 or #3 ever. I'd say there's an argument for Manning at #1 and really nobody else ...
   63. Howie Menckel Posted: April 22, 2019 at 07:57 PM (#5834269)
The Bulls won NBA titles with Michael Jordan in 1991, 1992, and 1993 - winning 61, 67, and 57 games.

without Jordan in 1993-94, they won....55.
without Jordan in 1994-95 for the first 65 games, they were ...... 34-31. then 13-4 in finishing with Jordan (who shot 34-for-117 from the field - 29 percent - in the four losses).

the next 3 years, they won 72, 69, and 62 games in winning 3 more titles.

he leaves again, and they go 13-37 in lockout season, then win 17, 15, and 21 games the 3 years after that - finally getting back above .500 in 2004-05.

   64. cardsfanboy Posted: April 22, 2019 at 08:56 PM (#5834280)
Not in the discussion? This is ridiculous. The amount of mental gymnastics it takes to talk yourself out of Brady as the best (or at worst top 2-3) is exhausting. If you add up all the best anti-Brady arguments, mix em up and spill it out, you can't come up with anything other than #2 or #3 ever. I'd say there's an argument for Manning at #1 and really nobody else ...


I don't fully agree with you, but agree with the major point, he's clearly in the discussion... I may think he's overrated but that doesn't mean he isn't also great.

Still I put him behind both Manning and Montana, and then put him in the group that includes Elway, Favre, throw in Unitas if you want, but that is the group that Brady is debated with (and sorry guy up thread... I absolutely, positively love Brees, but he's definitely a step below Brady...that isn't even a legit argument) top five, he's in the discussion, top two... I don't see it.
   65. SoSH U at work Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:14 PM (#5834285)
He got hurt halfway through the first quarter when there was no score in the game.


That's what I get from not looking it up. I thought he got knocked out in the third. So Cassel should be the pitcher of record.
   66. Srul Itza Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5834298)
He got mentioned in another context, but the Big Unit also pitched into his mid-40's. He picked up his 300th win in his age 45 Season, pitching for the Giants.
   67. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:21 PM (#5834308)
When Brady won his fourth title, I thought he was the GOAT, but it was a tough call. When he won his fifth, I thought it became an easy call. Now with 6 he's just pulling away.
   68. Greg Pope Posted: April 23, 2019 at 12:18 AM (#5834324)
I don't fully agree with you, but agree with the major point, he's clearly in the discussion... I may think he's overrated but that doesn't mean he isn't also great.

I said he was great.

Still I put him behind both Manning and Montana, and then put him in the group that includes Elway, Favre, throw in Unitas if you want, but that is the group that Brady is debated with

So you agree with me that he’s not in discussion for GOAT. Also, I have Rodgers in the Manning/Montana group, ahead of the next group.

There’s simply no argument for Brady that doesn’t depend on “count the rings”. And football is at least as team dependent as baseball. Although in a different way. There’s the linemen. And coaching has a huge impact on football. Way more than baseball.
   69. SoSH U at work Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:03 AM (#5834331)
What's the non-ring based argument for Montana in the highest tier? It seems that his successor in the same system with the same personnel typically grades higher.
   70. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 23, 2019 at 08:36 AM (#5834351)
Brad Oremland, who has studied these things as much as anyone, rates Montana fifth all-time (or he did in 2015; Brady may have passed him by now). Here's part of his Montana ranking:

Something often forgotten or ignored about Montana’s career is that he was also one of the greatest regular-season quarterbacks of all time.1 He led the NFL in touchdowns and passer rating twice each, and he passed for the most yards of the 1980s. He and Dan Marino were the only players with six 3,000-yard passing seasons in the decade, and the only two with 200 TD passes. Montana set the all-time record for passer rating, plus he excelled in areas that don’t show up in the rating formula — he was a good runner, he didn’t take many sacks, and he seldom fumbled. Montana made eight Pro Bowls and five all-pro squads, three of them first-team. He was the Associated Press NFL MVP in 1989 and ’90.
   71. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:09 AM (#5834360)

So you agree with me that he’s not in discussion for GOAT. Also, I have Rodgers in the Manning/Montana group, ahead of the next group.

There’s simply no argument for Brady that doesn’t depend on “count the rings”.


Sure there is. The argumnent would be that Brady has been an exceptional quarterback for a very, very long time.

Career DYAR:
Manning: 26296
Brady: 23745
Brees: 21423
Rodgers: 11699

Career AV:
Manning: 271
Brady: 269
Brees: 256
Rodgers: 170
Montana: 164

Depending on how you credit Brady's playoff performances (Brady has played in 40 to Manning's 27, with a better ANY/A) you could certainly put Brady ahead, leaving aside that he isn't done playing.
   72. PreservedFish Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:14 AM (#5834362)
Still I put him behind both Manning and Montana, and then put him in the group that includes Elway, Favre, throw in Unitas if you want, but that is the group that Brady is debated with

So you agree with me that he’s not in discussion for GOAT.


This is a very narrow definition of "in the discussion," if it refuses to include players that must be carefully considered before they can ultimately found to be a tier below the supposed two best quarterbacks ever.
   73. JJ1986 Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:18 AM (#5834363)
Timelining quarterbacks is hard, but there is literally no way that Brady is in the same tier as Favre.
   74. jmurph Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5834367)
There’s simply no argument for Brady that doesn’t depend on “count the rings”.

There's no argument against top 2 that doesn't rely on pretending the playoffs don't matter.

And football is at least as team dependent as baseball.

What's the (modern) football equivalent of Mike Trout's 7 all time great seasons without a playoff win?
   75. Zonk Totally Exonerated by Total BS Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5834377)
Does pre-SB shuffle Walter Payton count as modern? I suppose maybe "all time great seasons" is pushing it, but Payton had some really outstanding seasons on gawd awful bad teams before the mid-80s came to pass....
   76. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5834380)
If we're discounting quarterbacks for the contributions of their coaches and teammates, it seems relevant to mention that Bill Walsh is in the Hall of Fame, that Jerry Rice is the consensus greatest receiver of all time, and that the San Francisco 49ers defenses were ranked 2, 23, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 8, and 3 in points allowed during Joe Montana's tenure as starting quarterback. The best 9-year stretch of New England Patriot defenses I can find during Tom Brady's career is 6, 17, 1, 2, 17, 2, 4, 8 and 5.

I'm prepared to listen to an argument that Montana should be rated higher than Brady. But the idea that Montana was dragging his team to victory solely by his own greatness, while Brady was carried to nine Super Bowls by his teammates, is historically illiterate. It's not at all clear that if you pick out any consecutive nine years of Brady's career, Montana's 49ers didn't have comparable, or better, offensive weapons *and* defenses.
   77. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5834381)
What's the non-ring based argument for Montana in the highest tier? It seems that his successor in the same system with the same personnel typically grades higher.
Yeah I'd want to hear this as well. Especially from someone who is placing Montana clearly above Brady.
   78. PreservedFish Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5834385)
Simple, Montana was a star when I was a naive kid, but Brady a star when I'm a jaded adult.
   79. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5834386)
What's the (modern) football equivalent of Mike Trout's 7 all time great seasons without a playoff win?
Due to the nature of modern football, I think this would need to be a defensive player or RB/WR.
   80. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5834390)
[79] So Calvin Johnson then?
   81. JJ1986 Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:02 AM (#5834391)
What's the (modern) football equivalent of Mike Trout's 7 all time great seasons without a playoff win?

Due to the nature of modern football, I think this would need to be a defensive player or RB/WR.

I think that makes it Calvin Johnson then.

Edit: coke to 80.
   82. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:03 AM (#5834392)
[80] I'd've said Barry Sanders must surely be in the running, but he actually does have one single playoff win.
   83. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 23, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5834424)
How about Dick Butkus?
   84. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 23, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5834458)
Due to the nature of modern football, I think this would need to be a defensive player or RB/WR.


What about a left tackle? Joe Thomas never won a playoff game.
   85. bachslunch Posted: April 23, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5834469)
For me, it's tough to get below 6 GOAT NFL QB possibilities: Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Otto Graham, and Sammy Baugh. One can argue all kinds of ways to distinguish between them, I suppose, but that's the lowest I can trim.

For RBs, it's a bit easier: Jim Brown.

For receivers, we're talking Don Hutson and Jerry Rice.
   86. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5834490)
[85] Are you including Baugh’s value in playing punter and defensive end?
   87. JL72 Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5834495)
Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Otto Graham, and Sammy Baugh.


Timelining presents some real issues here. Not only for physical skills, but for the evolution of the game and the increased importance of the QB. Unlike baseball, the rules that Baugh, for example, played under are quite different than what Brady has.
   88. cardsfanboy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 08:19 PM (#5834644)
Timelining quarterbacks is hard, but there is literally no way that Brady is in the same tier as Favre.


Are you saying that Favre is clearly better, I can see that argument, or the other way around? which seems a bit of a stretch.
   89. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 23, 2019 at 09:41 PM (#5834685)
I'm not sure Favre cracks the top-10 of all-time QBs. It's close.
   90. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:27 PM (#5834701)
I'm no NFL honk, but Favre was a delight to watch play, few football players, if any were more entertaining.
   91. bachslunch Posted: April 24, 2019 at 08:55 AM (#5834789)
@86: I wasn't, though that helps him even more if you consider it. He's arguably the best punter of all time, too, depending on the standards you use. Attempts to rank QBs while allowing for period adjustment that I've seen suggest Baugh was the best passer pre-Graham, though Chase Stuart's system has Sid Luckman close by him:

http://newqbrating.blogspot.com/2010/04/c-scores-new-way-to-evaluate-pro.html#sthash.lSVVvetB.dpuf

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-v-part-ii-career-rankings/

The former ranking has him as the 5th/4th/4th best all-time for best 4/7/10 year stretch, in fact. Tough to ignore. But YMMV, of course.

@87: agreed, timelining presents challenges. I've based this on a combination of stats with some level of period adjustment and titles won. Not an exact science, though.
   92. JL72 Posted: April 24, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5834804)
@91 - That sounds like a pretty good approach. Everyone will weigh things differently, but it is something that must be considered.
   93. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 24, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5834805)
Timelining presents some real issues here. Not only for physical skills, but for the evolution of the game and the increased importance of the QB


Not to mention, the rules protecting QBs (and an increased focus on rest, recovery, etc.) has led to longer and longer careers. The career AV leaderboards are just going to be a bunch of guys from this era. We've already got Manning, Brady, and Brees in the Top 3. But Phillip Rivers will probably pass Elway and Marino in the next few years, Ben is going to be moving up the list, the Falcons are going to just keep putting weapons around Matt Ryan. Who knows with Rodgers?

   94. jmurph Posted: April 24, 2019 at 11:05 AM (#5834822)
Are you saying that Favre is clearly better, I can see that argument, or the other way around? which seems a bit of a stretch.

This is the "literally nothing matters" approach to talking about sports.
   95. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5834845)
Are you saying that Favre is clearly better, I can see that argument,


Do the Brady haters actually think this?
   96. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:29 PM (#5834847)
Brett Favre won a game on national television several days after his father died. Did Tom Brady ever do that?
   97. JJ1986 Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5834848)
Brett Favre won a game on national television several days after his father died. Did Tom Brady ever do that?
Justin Tuck is still alive.
   98. Itchy Row Posted: April 24, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5834855)
Tom Brady did win a game on national television several days after Brett Favre's dad died.
   99. jmurph Posted: April 24, 2019 at 02:21 PM (#5834901)
Are you saying that Favre is clearly better, I can see that argument,

I can't even figure out the angle honestly, other than trolling, and that's not cfb's bag in my experience. It's not winning, it's not stats, it's... Wrangler commercials? I just don't get it.
   100. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 24, 2019 at 08:31 PM (#5835055)
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