Has there ever been a decent-hitting but flawed 21-year-old power hitter who was able to work on his flaws and improve, and eventually go on to have a great career?

In broad strokes, sure. There’s an almost automatic twitch in the sabermetric community to despair over anyone with a BABIP well beyond the norm, as Freeman’s .339 was last year. It becomes even more troubling when you’ve got a guy who swings and misses as often as Freeman did last year against breaking stuff.

Isn't it much less troubling for a guy with a high K rate to have a high BaBiP? K rate is an indicator of swinging hard, which should lend credence to the above average BaBiP.

It's not like his current numbers are unsustainable. For a young guy who looks to add power, it doesn't seem like that big of a deal. If he were to add 9 home runs, he could put up the same numbers with a .303 BaBiP.

Has there ever been a decent-hitting but flawed 21-year-old power hitter who was able to work on his flaws and improve, and eventually go on to have a great career?

yes

The most similar players by age on BBref really shows how, from this starting point, a player can go anywhere.

The list has HOFers like Willie Mays, Yaz, and Eddie Murray, and guys with funny names I had to look up like Dick Kokos and Chubby Dean.

I'm not sure how Chubby Dean is even similar. He played 1B at age 20-21, had 651 AB, and only hit 3 homers. Then he switched to the mound. He was replacement level as a pitcher (80 ERA+, 30-46 record), but at least stuck around for 7 seasons.

Freeman does have the arm to be a pitcher, so you never know.

EDIT: wrong Braves prospect.

He's got a better ZiPS projection than Jesus Montero at the same age, what more do you want? :-)

The K-rate is high but not astronomical (1 per 4 AB). That likely means he won't hit better than 270-280 but we're not talking Adam Dunn here. He needs to add some walks and HR power to reach the next level (130ish OPS+) with something like McGriff/Delgado as the ultimate upside.

Isn't it much less troubling for a guy with a high K rate to have a high BaBiP? K rate is an indicator of swinging hard, which should lend credence to the above average BaBiP.

I would think that a higher contact rate would allow him to sustain a higher BABIP. In that sense, I don't think that it's a good sign that his K rate is high.

I'm not sure how Chubby Dean is even similar. He played 1B at age 20-21, had 651 AB, and only hit 3 homers. Then he switched to the mound. He was replacement level as a pitcher (80 ERA+, 30-46 record), but at least stuck around for 7 seasons.

I think the similarity scores needs some tweaking
for instance, it sees Chubby as being closer to Freeman than Yaz
however, Yaz is closer to Freeman in: Games, PAs, Runs, Hits, Triples, Hrs, Walks, Ks, slugging and OPS+

they are tied in doubles

Chubby is closer in Ribbies (by ONE) OBP and Batting average

I assume the position difference puts Chubby closer, but Yaz is a much betetr comp as a hitter- and he's not even all that close.

Couldn't one argue that Barry Bonds was a flawed 21 year old power hitter?

I would think that a higher contact rate would allow him to sustain a higher BABIP. In that sense, I don't think that it's a good sign that his K rate is high.

A high contact rate helps with overall BA but, if anything, a high K rate is associated with higher BABIP although I'm not sure the relationship is strong.

There are of course high-contact high BABIP hitters -- the Gwynn/Ichiro types generally head these lists. And there are your super-studs like a Pujols who are high-contact, high-power and those guys tend to have good BABIPs. Yet Gary Sheffield had just a 285 BABIP. But then Carlos Pena's is 278. One of the factors at play here is FB rate -- a TTO guy will be hitting a lot of FB and FB have a lower BABIP (remember you remove HR).

There are 59 batters with 3000+ PA and at least 1 K per 4 AB, most of them modern. Yeah, I'd have thought more, I might have mis-spec'd my PI request. Anyway, among those 59, the median BABIP is 297. Kemp leads the way at 352 followed by Mo (338), Brad Hawpe and Ray Lankford -- not exactly murderer's row. Howard (324) and Thome (321) represent one extreme; Sosa's at 301; then Thomas, Kingman, Deer are down in the 250s. (Drop the PA requirement to 1000 and you get 216 with a median BABIP of about 292.)

Thing is if you look at the bottom half of the first list (Pat Burrell), only two guys managed to crack an overall BA of 260 -- Sexson (293 BABIP; 261 BA) and McGwire (255 BABIP; 263 BA). It's not easy holding an ML job if you hit under 260 and that's why high-K hitter generally need good BABIP, so there's self-selection of course. McGwire leads the way in that bottom half with 7660 PA.

As to overall BA, the link is more obvious. If you K 150 times in 600 AB (not extreme these days), you're "starting" in a 0 for 150 hole and have to go 150 for 450 just to hit 250 overall. If you K 50 in 600 AB and go 180 for 550 otherwise, you're a 300 hitter. Balanced off against that of course is power -- if you're the first guy and hit 30 HR, then 120 for your remaining 420 is just a 286 BABIP and 250 with 30 HR will usually keep you employed.

For the flipside of the high-K list, I looked at guys since 1980 with 3000+ PA and less than 1 K per 8 AB. That gives 132 players and the median BAbip is 295. Playing around the the K/AB cutoff doesn't really change that. On this quick look, I'd say K-rate and BABIP are pretty much unrelated.

Here's a kinda cool list: BA>BABIP by ISO, 1980-2011

McGwire, Bonds, Pujols, Belle, Vlad, Palmeiro, Sheffield

followed by a less auspicious group

Horner, Nomar, Carlos Lee, Da Evans, G Carter, Nettles, Mattingly, Simmons, Jeffries, Buckner and Brian Harper. (Partial careers for some of those guys)

Note Mac is the only high-K guy in that group (Evans was only about 1 per 7.5 from 1980 on).

Would you believe Oscar Gamble only K'd about 1 per 9?

Your study is pretty interesting, I would like to ask this:

What is the highest BABIP we can reasonably assume, once we select out smaller sample sizes?

Is it Kemp with 35%? or do we expect that to drop?

Or maybe a better question, what is the standard deviation for this stat? +/- 2%?

Couldn't one argue that Barry Bonds was a flawed 21 year old power hitter?

Bonds was a 5-tool player(I guess maybe 4, I have no idea how good his arm was). He played excellent defense in the OF(probably could have played in CF for many years) and had speed on the bases. He was not a 1B who basically relied on power hitting for all his value.

He was not a 1B who basically relied on power hitting for all his value.

It seems really odd to have to say "Freddie Freeman is not Barry Bonds," but yeah, ya know, Freddie Freeman is not Barry Bonds. With that said, he is also not a "1B who basically relied on power hitting for all of his value." Contrary to whatever random defensive metrics you might be relying on otherwise, he was a plus in the field. He was particularly good at scooping throws at 1B. Not a lot of range, but a decent defender, a good line drive hitter, and when he was locked in for those two months in the middle, he was unstoppable.

Freeman has always taken a month or so to adjust to new levels - a trend across his entire minor league career. He took a month to adjust to ML pitching. Then, much like AA and AAA, he destroyed it for two months. Then in the final month, as he broke 550 PAs for the first time in his career, he got tired and wore down noticeably.

So does the Braves fanbase have more dreamers or telephone screamers?

The fact that the title is making me hear "Which Way You Goin', Billy" in my head is not a source of comfort.

#12 Here's Jim Rooker on Bonds' defense after his rookie season: "Bonds can make center field look small. He plays extremely shallow yet goes back on the ball so well that very few get over his head and remain in the park. He goes to the gap on either side equally well and takes advantage of his speed. Bonds is so smooth that he often appears to glide to the ball, making difficult catches seem routine.

His defensive weakness is a no-better-than-average arm. Oddly enough, it appears as though he doesn't even like to throw and often gets the ball caught up in the glove when he might have a chance to throw out a runner. He will not take aggressive chances to throw out advancing runners."

And here's Rooker on Bonds as an offensive player:

"He won't swing at bad pitches -- his strikeouts are because he just misses good ones"

"His swing is still a bit too long and looping" (that changed of course -- RNJ)

"[...] pitchers found that he couldn't cover the inside corner. Once he learns this, he should develop into more of a pull hitter who will power 30-40 home runs a year"

EDIT: Exhibit A for the scouts side in the endless Scouts vs Stats debate.

Once he learns this, he should develop into more of a pull hitter who will power 30-40 home runs a year"

EDIT: Exhibit A for the scouts side in the endless Scouts vs Stats debate.

Whaddya mean? Those scouts were off by 30 HRs. Geez. :)

Bump to see if anyone wants to answer my question about BABIP. thanks.