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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Kahrl: Will Jose Iglesias be the new Rey Ordonez?

Up The Sandbox Defense! (bust flop of the year?)

Something approaching normalcy from those hitters would make Iglesias that much more palatable if Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine—the man who managed Ordonez over the bulk of his “productive” career with the Mets—takes a shine to Iglesias in camp.

In the meantime, Boston’s fall-back options are fairly reasonable. Like Scutaro, Punto is neither the best or worst defender at short. The difference in their career OBPs (.338 vs. .325) is narrow enough to suggest there won’t be any drop-off with a change to the identity of the ninth-slot hitter in Boston’s lineup, and Punto actually has a higher walk rate for his career (10.2 percent to Scooter’s 9.1). That’s without getting into why Aviles might have been the best right-now option of the three. After getting jerked around by the Royals ever since coming back from the Tommy John surgery that put a dent in his future in 2009, he still profiles as a good bat and playable glove at short.

But it’s Iglesias who represents the team’s long-term future at short. And it’s Rey Ordonez’s old manager who will be helping to decide whether or not he can use the latest slick-fielding Cuban kid at short, sooner or later.

Repoz Posted: January 24, 2012 at 07:04 AM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, mets, projections, red sox, sabermetrics

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   1. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 24, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4043983)
Am I right that the problem with Ordonez wasn't so much that the couldn't hit but that he wasn't as good a fielder as he was perceived?
   2. TomH Posted: January 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4043985)
Bogarts is the long-term plan at short, right?
   3. Repoz Posted: January 24, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4043995)
Am I right that the problem with Ordonez wasn't so much that the couldn't hit but that he wasn't as good a fielder as he was perceived?

When Ordonez got to the point where he was doing pop-up-slide catches on balls hit right at him, yes.
   4. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 24, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4044002)
Bogarts is the long-term plan at short, right?


I think the consensus on him is that he'll probably have to move to third base.
   5. zack Posted: January 24, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4044026)
Ordonez got fat pretty quickly, but he could pick it at the beginning. And not only could he not hit, he couldn't take a walk, steal a base or do anything remotely productive offensively. Swing from the heels is not a good strategy when you're 5'9" (Dustin Pedroias excluded).

Iglesias will have the benefit of a much lower baseline of acceptability to meet. 1999 shortstops hit .273/.335/.400. 2011 shortstops hit .263/.317/.380. (Which is actually higher when league adjusted, but I'm assuming a low average is good for a poor hitter, as you can only be so bad).
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4044052)
Ordonez got fat pretty quickly, but he could pick it at the beginning.

BRef backs this up. +60 Rfield his first four seasons, negative thereafter.

Of course, his offense was so awful that he had a +20 fielding season and was worth only 0.3 WAR. His +33 season represents 2.7 of his 0.6 career WAR.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4044370)
But it’s Iglesias who represents the team’s long-term future at short

In the sense that he's the guy on hand most likely to be good 5 years from now sure.

But it's at least as likely that the long-term future at short for the Red Sox is Yunel Escobar or Alcides Escobar or Asdrubal Cabrera or Cliff Pennington or Elvis Andrus or, god forbid, Starlin Castro.

The Ordonez-Valentine connection does make it an interesting question whether Iglesias's all-glove no-hit combo will impact on the 2012-13 Red Sox. But in the long run, it doesn't matter if Iglesias learns to hit -- if he doesn't, they find a league-average or better SS somewhere else; if he does, they save a few million through his arb years. You'd prefer the latter but it's not a big deal compared to, say, the impact on the Royals' future of whether Alcides Escobar can develop into a 90-95 OPS+ hitter.
   8. franklloyd Posted: January 24, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4044716)
The Red Sox should immediately sign Yunieski Betancourt!
   9. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 26, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4046303)
I always get Rey Sanchez and Rey Ordonez mixed up, which surprisingly does a disservice to Sanchez. Was Bobby V just stuck with Ordonez, or did he have a fondness for banjo-hitting SS? He gave the dude a lot of AB.

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