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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Stand back…Kap is doing something mathy or something! (comments)
“Dat: You need to get a clue. MB21 makes a compelling argument. he has stats to back up his thoughts. And I am trying to learn more and more about the sabermetric side of the game. But first let’s address your idiotic comment. I don’t deal in vendettas. You can disagree with my opinion but your parrotting of other people’s ridiculous idea only serves to make you look foolish.”
I for one believe that with Ted Lilly coming off of shoulder surgery and the uncertain performances of both Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster based on 2009 the Cubs must also add another starter to the mix. Right now, their rotation sets up as Zambrano, Dempster, Randy Wells, a rehabbing Lilly who will not be ready when the season starts, and a collection of unproven arms such as Jeff Samardzija and Andrew Cashner. Plus two back end of the rotation/long reliever types in Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny.
That doesn’t exactly set up as a championship level rotation on paper so it becomes important for Hendry to find a way to add a solid starter this winter. The Cubs are a veteran laden team and if they truly believe that they can contend in 2010 and with the veterans they have and the division they play in they should be able to, then they must think like a champion.
That means upgrading a starting rotation that has more questions right now than answers. Manager Lou Piniella enters what appears to be his final season at the helm with one mission and that is to win right now. He doesn’t have an eye on the future and he is not interested in developing young players for the future. So if that is the game plan then give him a chance and make the one move that is key to success in the major leagues and that is having a dominant starting rotation.
Repoz
Posted: December 02, 2009 at 07:09 AM | 61 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2009 at 09:55 AM (#3400935)But, the Cubs are pretty much stuck. With arb salaries, Grabow, etc. they are already at last year's payroll as near as I can tell. They aren't gonna add a big name FA unless they can clear payroll space.
And what pitcher is there to add?
I don't like how Marshall is being pigeon-holed as a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type" already. He should be starting on this team, no matter who they sign.
I love Marshall's curveball, but I'd much rather see the Cubs flip him this season. I think he IS a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type". Maybe he's still got room to improve, but I doubt it.
I told you, no one gets that reference.
Just Stupid.
First - I cannot imagine Harden accepting arbitration. He's only a type B, so no one need give up a pick to sign him. It's basically a free sandwich pick.
Second - even if the bottom completely falls out of the market (sure, it might... but I look at the deal Brian Schneider signed and don't think it will) and Harden DOES opt to accept arbitration, he's certainly not going to get a huge raise from what was a reasonable salary.
OK - maybe the Cubs cannot even afford a small raise from the 7 mil he made last year... Fine... Are you honestly telling me there is no trade market for Rich Harden on a one year deal under 10 million? Nonsense.
This was just a dumb, asinine, stupid, moronic, #######, organizational move. The Cubs could have had an additional top 60 pick in next year's draft and they say "no thanks"?
I hate stupid moves fringe moves like this.
Seriously, knowing Theo Epstein's love of lost-cost, high-ceiling rehab pitchers, how many minutes do you think it took the Red Sox to contact Harden's agent once this news broke?
Is it a wife-beating reference?
"BBTF Comments Resemble Circle Jerk"
No, they're a 1st place team with 3rd place aspirations. I don't know what the Cards are going to do this offseason, but potentially losing Holliday, Piniero and DeRosa could be a lot to replace, although they always manage to pull productive players out of LaRussa's ass. I still think there's more talent on the Cubs than the Brewers, Reds, Astros or Pirates. So, anything is possible, although I'm, for once, not very optimistic.
I love Marshall's curveball, but I'd much rather see the Cubs flip him this season. I think he IS a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type". Maybe he's still got room to improve, but I doubt it.
You know, I used to think this, and was one of his biggest detractors here, but at some point I've come around on him. Maybe it's seeing the Gorz and the Samardz listed as options along with him, while knowing he's clearly better than both of them.
I hate stupid moves fringe moves like this.
This is exactly what I said in the lounge yesterday when we talked about this. Hendry's biggest failing, by far, is the fringe stuff. From all accounts, all the Cubs have to work with this year is around the fringes. So this move, along with the Grabow and the inevitable next signing of a utility guy, were sadly predictable. And is the reason I fail to be optimistic.
I don't know... I still like the Gorz's K rate. All accounts have him as a real meathead, but sometimes meatheads with good arms become good pitchers. I think Marshall is more likely to be a relatively consistent, low ceiling #5 that you don't need to worry about imploding, but I could see something clicking with Gorz, and him developing into a top half of the rotation option. BPJ - well, we've had our fun with him... keep him, trade him, let him apply for the ND coaching job... doesn't matter to me.
No - but I believe the maximum paycut a player could get through arbitration is somewhere in the 20% range, but there's no ceiling to the raise, SFAIK.
Since Harden's a "B" FA that wouldn't cost a team a pick anyways, I doubt the Red Sox care whether the Cubs offered him arb.
The maximum reduction rule is only for pre-FA players; it's not applicable to FAs who accept arbitration.
One of the most pleasant evolutions I've ever seen on the part of a BBTFer.
It doesn't, but it's very rare that players don't receive a raise. For players who have yet to hit free agent status, a team can offer up to a 20% cut from the previous year's salary. For players who have enough service time for free agency, however, a team can offer any cut - they're not restricted to the 20% limit.
As to why you almost never see a player take less in arb, I'm not sure. I'd guess it's mostly a matter of teams not offering arb to players who have underperformed so badly that they could conceivably be forced to take a cut. It could also just be a matter of the free agent pay rate for most players being high enough that teams just don't want to take the gamble of getting stuck - a guy like Harden can point to all sorts of bad free agent contracts to show that, even with his missed time, he's worth at least his $7M on a one year deal, whereas the Cubs might have a rough time finding pitchers comparable to Harden who were forced to sign for less than that number.
The A's offered Duke--also a type B--arbitration to put this move by the Cubs in perspective. It's weird to see teams like the Cubs and Dodgers freeze up like this.
Whatever, old man.
they could have named him "mike" or "Willy", but really he should just be glad he doesn't have the nickname "Tiny".
You should be flattered. "Most pleasant evolutions I've ever seen" covers a whole ####-load of time.
EDIT: I'm disappointed you forgot my birthday last weekend, Moses. You, of all people!
I read somewhere on here today that it has been decades since a player took a paycut in arb.
It was posted elsewhere as 1993. I'm not sure if that's right, as I remember Juan Guzman being forced to take a 20% cut after the 1995 season, but I can't remember if that was decided by an arbitrator, or just agreed to in advance, to avoid the embarassment of having an arbitrator tell him he sucked enough (4-14, 75 ERA+) to deserve that 20% cut.
Either way, it looks like it has been roughly 15 years since a player was last forced to take a cut in arb.
Edit: He asked for a 70% increase. This probably made it an easy choice for the arbitrator.
The Braves weren't even confident enough to go to arbitration asking for the same salary for Maddux in 2003.
James Richard Harden.
That's because they did that very thing the year before, and Boras ran them over with a car, thus leading to the Millwood/Estrada trade.
I think they were different situations. Millwood gained a lot in arbitration because he was a young player due for a raise. Maddux was an older player probably due for a pay cut (based only on performace), but the Braves figured that arbitration meant a de-facto raise even if technically it doesn't have to be so they agreed to a raise before going through with the arbitration.
If you're going to like something about him, that's probably the right choice. Not much competition.
"All accounts have him as a real meathead..."
He's been one for a while. That's why he failed out of Kansas, and had to go to JC in order to play.
My favorite "Dude, seriously?" moment in contract negotiations was when Carlos Quintana missed the entire 1992 season with injuries caused by a car crash, and then asked the Red Sox for a raise at the end of the season. The Red Sox politely told him to STFU and GBTW.
Of course, that was a non-arb situation, so it's a little different.
I'm surprised you remembered it!
I would guess that in most of those cases, teams wouldn't even want to risk a paycut that wasn't big enough.
Year Player Tm Prev Ask Bid Result W Ask% Bid% Res%2001 Kevin Millwood Atl 420,000 3,900,000 3,100,000 3,100,000 T 829% 638% 638%
Now I think, actually, he's referring to Maddux but in the same year that I was talking about. "Boras running them over with a car" was just them surprisingly accepting arbitration. And then, the Braves settled w/ Maddux before arbitration for a raise from his previous year, even though his performance did not still match the contract.
I might have this wrong.
Any insight at all from the Cubs as to why they wouldn't offer arbitration? Other than, "Hey we're stupid beyond repair." Or "That's a lot of money." Or "The Royals were advising us."
Year Player Tm Prev Ask Bid Result W Ask% Bid% Res%1993 Carlos Quintana Bos 340,000 850,000 340,000 340,000 T 150% 0% 0%
How does an agent even make that case? A 150% ask is pretty low for an Arb 1 guy, but for one who spent the entire season on the DL with a non-baseball injury?
Edit: There have been two other no raise results since 1993: Willie Banks, 1996 and Jason Dickson, 2000:
Year Player Tm Prev Ask Bid Result W Ask% Bid% Res%1996 Willie Banks Phi 240,000 590,000 240,000 240,000 T 146% 0% 0%
2000 Jason Dickson Ana 375,000 600,000 375,000 375,000 T 60% 0% 0%
They both missed the preceding seasons with injuries.
Or Dong Dong?
You know, this makes me wonder: How long before some kid is named just a sound. Like the guy that was once Prince. But with sound.
This is one of the many, many reasons I am not allowed to procreate.
You mean this thread?
If you're ever looking for it, it's the first link found on a BTF search for the term "smashed dick."
Please don't leave set-up lines like this lying around. Someone's likely to get hurt.
As for Harden, I've read a lot of rumors about interested teams, but any which have had any details have been for one year incentive heavy deals. The one year and $9M or so he'd get in arbitration, guaranteed (assuming he won't be bad enough to release in spring training), might work out better for him than a larger contract with lots of the money in roster and performance bonuses. My guess is the Cubs didn't want to assume that risk, either. He's got a tear in his shoulder which is going to blow up sooner or later.
Edit: Oh, and I'm missing most Previous Salaries between 1978 and 1982.
I just re-read. I was having a really bad day, I think.
Happens to all of us, once in a while.
On the bright side, if you hadn't been having a bad day, I never would've ended up rapping in the style of a trampolinist.
Ridiculous maybe, but only outside of context. Guzman went 10-3 with a 143 ERA+ in 1991. He got a $142,000 raise. He then went 16-5 with a 156 ERA+, was an all star, and went 2-0 with an ERA below 2 in the post season in 1992. He then got a $258,000 raise. The next year he went 14-3 with a more pedestrian 109 ERA+, was stellar again in the post season, and got some CYA support. He got a $500,000 raise, bringing him up all the way to $1,000,000.
That's the way the system works. If a guy can get paid barely above the minimum for 3 outstanding seasons merely because of lack of service time, it's not ridiculous for him to expect a lot more than minimum for less than stellar performance once he has accumulated the necessary service time. Or to put it another way, asking for a raise was not ridiculous because he was asking for a raise from an artificially low salary level to begin with.
Todd Stottlemeyer was his teammate in 1992-93. In 1992, Todd went 12-11 with a 91 ERA+. He made 1.2 million. He then got a raise to 2.3 million, went 11-12 with a 90 ERA+, and got a raise to 2.4 million. Stottlemeyer had never been as good as Guzman was in 1991-92, was making far more than Guzman, pitching far worse, and getting raises. Because that's how the system is set up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNSf-KQORRk (NSFW after around the 1:30 mark - or in the comments)
He then went 12-11, with a 85 ERA+, and got a raise to $2,800,000. He then went 4-14, with a 75 ERA+, at which point he had to eat a 20% cut. As someone who watched the Jays all those years, I'm quite familiar with the context in which the numbers were put up, and the associated service time issues.
As to what you quoted, my point wasn't about laughing at Guzman's offer to the Jays in arb (by my phrasing, however, I could see why you might think that it was), but actual curiosity as to what number his agent put forward - I would think it would be interesting to see how his agent would try to spin the value of a season that was that terrible.
I'll reserve my actual laughter for things like Arizona beating a catcher in arb, and then immediately turning around and signing him to a contract worth more than the arbitration award that the team just won (Fabergas!).
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