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Thursday, June 13, 2019

Keep calm and mash: How the relaxed Twins are rewriting HR-hitting history

On Sunday, Nelson Cruz homered again. It was his fourth straight game in which he went yard, in his first five games back from the injured list. No big deal for a guy who came into this season with 203 home runs over the previous five seasons, right? Back in December, the Minnesota Twins signed the 38-year-old designated hitter to provide this kind of power. But what they didn’t necessarily anticipate was that Cruz would be just one slugger among many, because today’s Twins are putting on an unprecedented display of power at the plate, virtually a season-long Home Run Derby.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 13, 2019 at 09:57 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: home runs, twins

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   1. Rally Posted: June 13, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5851470)
Not getting help from the home park either, 81 on the road, 49 at home. Though a lot of that is playing more road games, 1314 AB vs. 974 at home.

The Mariners are only 1 HR behind the Twins, though the Mariners have played 5 more games so far. Despite all the bombs the Mariners are stuck in last place.
   2. Davo (Love Won The Battle Of Stalingrad) Posted: June 13, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5851477)
They’re on pace for over 300 homers, which is pretty dang impressive.
   3. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 13, 2019 at 05:04 PM (#5851554)
Six teams in MLB history have hit 250 home runs in a season. Six (MIN, SEA, MIL, CHC, NYY, and HOU) are on pace to do it this year, plus 3 more (LAD, OAK, ARI) at a pace of over 240. The Twins, Seattle, and Milwaukee are all on a pace to beat the record the Yankees set last year.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: June 13, 2019 at 05:37 PM (#5851571)
The Mariners are only 1 HR behind the Twins, though the Mariners have played 5 more games so far. Despite all the bombs the Mariners are stuck in last place.

The Ms had that massive early run (13-2, scoring about 8 runs per game) before becoming even crappier than we expected (16-40) but are still averaging over 5 runs a game and are tied for 4th in R/G. But it turns out you need to prevent the other team from scoring too and they are giving up a staggering 6.1 R/G. When I looked at this earlier, even the Rox have had only one season over 6. In addition to lousy pitchers, they are on pace for about -120 Rfield.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: June 13, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5851578)
On the Twins ... I keep looking for holes, massive luck, whatever but, other than looking at names and saying "oh c'mon, they can't be this good", it's hard to find. They've now got the best run differential and are only one win better than their pythag. They are 21-10 at home but 24-12 on the road. Sure they've beaten up on the ALC at 14-6 ... but also 14-6 against the ALE and 13-6 against the ALW (just 3-4 against the NL). OK, they're 6-0 against the O's ... but they've only played the Royals twice so far (that should translate into a lot of easy wins later). They're 4-3 against the Astros, 3-1 against Tampa, just 1-2 against the Yanks (haven't played Bos), 1-1 vs Milw. The biggest "knock" I can find is they are 10-5 in 1-run games but even if we take those as random coin flips, it's just a couple of extra wins.

They went 21-8 in May, outscoring their opps by nearly 3 runs a game -- holy crap.

Maybe it's the second coming of the 2001 Ms -- a good team somehow having a mind-blowing season. Or maybe the 2013 Red Sox.

   6. Jack Sommers Posted: June 14, 2019 at 01:19 AM (#5851839)
Yeah, even their xwOBA is only 6 points lower than actual wOBA, (.363 vs. 357) Link

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