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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Keith Law: Top 100 prospects

NO. PLAYER
1 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS
3 Carlos Santana, C, CLE
4 Buster Posey, C, SFO
5 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA
6 Desmond Jennings, OF, TAM
7 Martin Perez, LHP, TEX
8 Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA
9 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
10 Jesus Montero, C, NYY
11 Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
12 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
13 Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX
14 Domonic Brown, RF, PHI
15 Wade Davis, RHP, TAM
16 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN
17 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM
18 Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS
19 Aaron Hicks, RHP, MIN
20 Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR
21 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
22 Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
23 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM
24 Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
25 Zach Britton, LHP, BAL

Scouting reports for the top 25 should be free, I think.

Tripon Posted: January 28, 2010 at 06:09 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. T.J. Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:07 PM (#3448772)

Bumgarner at #28, hmm? Maybe related to velocity issues, but still...

The Top 100 list is visible along the right-hand side of the page if you aren't an Insider, but I couldn't click on any of the scouting reports, Top 25 or otherwise.

2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3448778)

Britton, Chapman, Matzek, Castro, J Parker - too high

Taylor, Drabek, Freeman, Leake, Montgomery - too low

Pedro Alvarez at #35 is flat out ridiculous. I get the concern over his streakiness, defense and K rates, but c'mon, the guy was one of the best power hitters in the minors last year and had a terrific college career.

The same could be said at Chris Carter at #33. Just a notch above Eric Hosmer? Really? Is there anyone that would trade Alvarez or Carter for Hosmer?

3. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3448777)

Given that there are two Mets prospects in the top 50, and four in the top 73, I think it's clear that Keith knows much more than that poopyhead from the other thread. Still, Wilmer Flores at 41 is surprising.

4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:24 PM (#3448786)

I haven't done my offseason prospect reading yet, so perhaps I'm just unfairly down on the current Red Sox system. But based on my current understanding of the Sox system, this is an exceptionally, stupendously great rating of pretty much every Sox on the list.

18. Casey Kelly, A-ball pitcher with excellent results, stuff probably not ace-quality
32. Ryan Westmoreland, toolsy HS OF with a good summer in short-season A, ranked ahead of Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter
53. Anthony Rizzo, wait, he's a prospect?
56. Lars Anderson, this is justifiable, I guess, the tools are still there, hope Law's right
86. Ryan Kalish
91. Jose Iglesias
98. Junichi Tazawa

I sure hope Law's right about everything. I wouldn't have been in any way surprised if all of Rizzo, Anderson, Kalish, Iglesias, and Tazawa missed the list.

EDIT: perhaps, based on #2, it's Alvarez's and Carter's rankings that are oddly low. #32 is still a good 20-30 spots higher than I would have guessed WMD would land, though.

5. Willie Mayspedes Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3448796)

Ryan Westmoreland, toolsy HS OF

He's a toolbox. During the game he just opens up the box and pulls them out</John Hart>

6. Replacement-Level Primate Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:34 PM (#3448799)

Aaron Hicks as a "RHP" has to be a typo, right? As far as I know, he's still in CF.

7. Brian

Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3448802)

Ackley looks a bit high for never having played pro ball. Unlike Strasburg, or any other pitcher, I think it's harder to project college hitters than pitchers.

8. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:36 PM (#3448803)

Didn't law rank the Red Sox system above Tampa's? That seems crazy to me, but what do I know...

9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:39 PM (#3448809)

Keith Law chat

10. Rodder Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3448813)

No wonder Law hated the Lee trade to Seattle from the Philly perspecive - none of the prospects they received in the top 100 (including Aumont).

11. Greg (U)K Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:47 PM (#3448817)

4 Jays in the top 100 (Wallace, Drabek, Stewart and D'Arnaud)
All of whom added by trade in the past 6 months or so. At this rate the Jays will have 10 in the top 100 by May!

12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:53 PM (#3448827)

Wayne Khan ( Toronto)

What do you think of Alex Anthopolous calling accardo personally to tell him if he pitches well he'l make the team?

Klaw

That's the sort of thing a good GM does. And I think he's deliberately making a break with how his predecessor handled things.

Meow!

13. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:06 PM (#3448842)

bill (St. Louis)
hudson's ceiling as a starter for Whitesox

Klaw
(1:11 PM)
4 or 5.

So Hudson's ceiling is a four or five -- keeping in mind that the league average four and five starters put up ERAs 5.50 -- despite the fact that CHONE and ZiPS have him, as a 23 year old, pitching anywhere from slightly-below-league-average to better-than-league-average respectively? That's harsh.

14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3448845)

Law's using a perfectly normal notion of "4/5 starter" which doesn't mean "average 4th or 5th starter across all mlb." The notion is, if you had a good team would you be happy with this guy as your 4th or 5th starter?

15. Tripon Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3448855)

Better hop on the Chris Withrow bandwagon now, cause we're going places!

16. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:15 PM (#3448856)

If that's the notion, it's much too vague to be of any use. And either way it really doesn't change my point -- he's projected to be at that ceiling this season. I know that pitchers don't improve in a linear fashion -- and perhaps that's the crux of his opinion on Hudson, that his stuff isn't good enough to take him further than he's already progressed -- but it seems a tad harsh to say his ceiling -- the peak of what he might achieve -- is that of a fourth or fifth starter.

17. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3448862)

it seems a tad harsh to say his ceiling -- the peak of what he might achieve -- is that of a fourth or fifth starter.

Well, he's a right-hander who doesn't have overpowering stuff. Those guys tend not to project well.

If he turns into a serviceable MLB 4th starter, I'll be happy.

18. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3448873)

Well, he's a right-hander who doesn't have overpowering stuff. Those guys tend not to project well.

It's certainly not overpowering but it's not like he's a soft-tosser, either. Fangraphs has his average fastball velocity at just a tick under 94 MPH and IIRC from the minor league reports this year, most readings had him in the 91-93 range. I don't recall overpowering breaking stuff, either, but this is a guy who struck out over ten batters per nine innings last year.

I don't know... am I really being unreasonable/fanboyish in thinking Hudson not being in the top 100 is harsh? This is a guy that ZiPS is projecting to pitch 150 innings of a 107 ERA+. Even if league average-ness is his ceiling, I'd have to say his probability of reaching it is a lot higher than many guys on the list and as such his expected value should be reasonably high (although this likely isn't the formula KL is going by).

19. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:57 PM (#3448909)

(although this likely isn't the formula KL is going by).

Yup. FTFA.

I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.

20. Mark S. Posted: January 28, 2010 at 09:03 PM (#3448920)

Given that there are two Mets prospects in the top 50, and four in the top 73, I think it's clear that Keith knows much more than that poopyhead from the other thread. Still, Wilmer Flores at 41 is surprising

Flores is a 17 (now 18) year old who held his own at full season ball with a low strikeout rate. If he was able to stay at SS (or even 2B), he'd probably be in the top 25.

21. Jimmy P Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:02 PM (#3449009)

I love the shot KLaw takes at the BBRAA:

He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant

22. Jimmy P Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:06 PM (#3449016)

Fangraphs has his average fastball velocity at just a tick under 94 MPH and IIRC from the minor league reports this year, most readings had him in the 91-93 range.

It's hard to live in that 91-93 range unless you have incredible movement and secondary pitches. Does Hudson have that?

23. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:24 PM (#3449049)

Heyward! WOOOO!

Ahem.

24. MM1f Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:26 PM (#3449056)

Pedro Alvarez at #35 is flat out ridiculous. I get the concern over his streakiness, defense and K rates, but c'mon, the guy was one of the best power hitters in the minors last year and had a terrific college career.

He was one of the best power hitters in the minors, once he reached AA.
Now, wrist injuries to hitters take time to heal so it could be that his wrist was healthier later in the year than earlier but it is still puzzling that a guy like that could hit .247 in high-A.
It is just as concerning as his AA stint is encouraging.

25. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:32 PM (#3449062)

For the first time in a while, I'm starting to buy the hype about a Cubs position player prospect. Everybody loves themselves some Starlin Castro. Watch the Cubs #### this up by moving him to the bigs too soon.

26. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:36 PM (#3449070)

Is it just me or did getting traded to the A's cause Michael Taylor to fall below Wallace on a lot of these lists.

27. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:45 PM (#3449090)

53. Anthony Rizzo, wait, he's a prospect?

That was my reaction too. The kid's a great story and has done well so far but nothing I've read about him is even remotely close to that high. It seems that in general the take is he's somewhere around 6-8 in the Sox' system.

28. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:48 PM (#3449097)

26: I've been getting the same impression. I've been told I have an A's fan persecution complex, though...

29. Mark S. Posted: January 28, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3449158)

Is it just me or did getting traded to the A's cause Michael Taylor to fall below Wallace on a lot of these lists.

They're four spots apart. That's probably within the margin of error.

30. My Grate Friend, Peason Posted: January 29, 2010 at 01:25 AM (#3449308)

Scouting reports for the top 25 should be free, I think.

I can't find this, can someone post a link?

31. Accent Shallow Posted: January 29, 2010 at 01:52 AM (#3449329)

Can anyone give me the scoop on Casey Kelly? While a 4.5 K/BB ratio in A/A+ is impressive at age 19, all the blurbs seem to say that he's expected to gain stuff as he ages/matures, and that his current standout tool is his command. That's all well and good (and having great command at age 19 is awesome), and sounds like a guy any team would love to have in their system, but to me that adds up to someone who should be farther down the list, with the potential to leap into the top 10-20 in 2011 if he "makes the leap" or just takes a step or two forward, rather than someone who's already top 20. Thoughts?

32. Mark S. Posted: January 29, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3449334)

Can anyone give me the scoop on Casey Kelly?

From Law's writeup:

...He has a chance for three average or better pitches, with a solid-average fastball already, a curveball that frequently flashes plus with good depth and tight rotation, and an above-average changeup with good arm speed and some fade...He probably will add a little velocity as he goes, but his ability to locate his fastball and chance for two above-average to plus secondary pitches make him a top-flight pitching prospect even without the big fastball.

33. Big Train Posted: January 29, 2010 at 02:12 AM (#3449336)

He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant

the worst part of the HOF debates, writers (and posters) have to #### all over very good or great players careers based their our own personal standards.

34. Melo's Love Handles (NJ) Posted: January 29, 2010 at 03:15 AM (#3449368)

35. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:11 AM (#3449390)

Atlanta gets five in the top 100 - Heyward, Vizcaino, Teheran, Freeman and Randall Delgado. Add that to Hanson, Jurrjens and maybe Jordan Schafer and that's a pretty solid core. Heyward will join Hanson in the bigs sometime this year (if not out of ST) and Freeman will likely hit next year. It is a good time to be a Braves fan.

36. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:34 AM (#3449417)

Could someone tell who from the Mets is on the list?

37. Greg (U)K Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:38 AM (#3449419)

Is it just me or did getting traded to the A's cause Michael Taylor to fall below Wallace on a lot of these lists.

As a Jays fan I've been spending the last couple months trying to convince myself that I'd rather have Wallace. So far unsuccessfully, but I might get there eventually.

38. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:39 AM (#3449420)

Could someone tell who from the Mets is on the list?

23 - Jenrry Mejia
41 - Wilmer Flores
61 - Ike Davis
73 - F-Mart

39. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:46 AM (#3449427)

Thank you very much.

I can't say I'd take Flores or Davis before F-Mart even with all his injury concerns.

40. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:59 AM (#3449439)

I love the shot KLaw takes at the BBRAA:

He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant

Wouldn't that also be a shot at those statistical blockheads at the Hall of Merit?

Keith seems like a nice enough fellow when he posts here, but I don't understand the need to take these types of shots. The comment in Post 12 seems like it could just as easily be found in the collected works of Richard Griffin, whose darts at JP tend to be received rather frostily around these parts.

41. Sox Machine Posted: January 29, 2010 at 05:45 AM (#3449459)

It's hard to live in that 91-93 range unless you have incredible movement and secondary pitches. Does Hudson have that?

Fastball and changeup, yes. Seems like he should have more life on his slider than he does. If he can make that reliable, he's a good middle-of-the-rotation candidate.

I don't mind that part of Law's opinion. This is a head-scratcher:

With average stuff at best. And I'm sorry, what a D1 college product did in A-ball - especially low-A - is just not that exciting. Unless he stunk, in which case, he's got one food in the discard pile.

He pitched 67 excellent innings at A-ball. He pitched 80 excellent innings at Double-A and Triple-A. And then he more than survived in 24 big-league innings at the end of his first pro season.

I'm sorry (and I have the feeling Law isn't sorry at all), but disregarding four of six months is a pretty unconvincing argument.

42. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 06:28 AM (#3449480)

I too am surprised by Wallace's ranking over Taylor's on most lists. By most accounts, Wallace is fat, unathletic, and will not stay at 3B. Taylor could be the next Dave Winfield.

43. HGM Posted: January 29, 2010 at 07:42 AM (#3449503)

Wouldn't that also be a shot at those statistical blockheads at the Hall of Merit?

If they're statistically ignorant, yes. Most of the HoM voters aren't statistically ignorant, though.

44. Tripon Posted: January 29, 2010 at 07:54 AM (#3449505)

Keith Law's always been a a fan of Wallace's bat. And he thinks its better than Taylor's.

45. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 29, 2010 at 08:20 AM (#3449507)

If they're statistically ignorant, yes. Most of the HoM voters aren't statistically ignorant, though.

So if you vote for Dawson for the Hall of Merit, you're a deep-thinking stathead who understands that Hawk's time in Montreal as a damn good hitter who patrolled a mean centerfield. But if you vote him for the Hall of Fame, you're an idiot who voted for a guy with a .323 lifetime OBP. Got it.

As for me, if the HoM guys deemed Dawson (barely) worthy of eternal recognition, then I'm going to give the HoF guys a pass for thinking likewise.

46. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 09:03 AM (#3449513)

I think they were both wrong, but since I'm too lazy to participate, I try not to ##### about it.

47. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: January 29, 2010 at 09:14 AM (#3449516)

Speaking as someone that watched Pedro Alvarez play every day in AA (at his home games, anyway), for the first little while he was rendered helpless by AA pitchers' breaking balls, righties or lefties. He'd blast an occasional ball 400+ feet off some fool that threw him a fastball, but he'd miss breaking balls by a foot and a half. But to his credit, he did seem to adjust quickly and well, and was able to crush some breaking stuff late in the year. That's very encouraging.

That said, Law is on target too; he's still a guy whose BABIP at AA was preposterous, who can't hit lefthanded pitching and who strikes out a million times, and he still has quite a lot of work to do to become a good major league hitter. But his projection of Bobby Bonilla Clone (minus the switch hitting) still looks pretty accurate and reasonably likely to me.

In other Legendary Superstars of the Altoona Curve news, Jose Tabata is not really a prospect. No power, has to play in a corner and won't be a useful major league player unless he can hit .310. The Pirates rushing him to AAA last year puzzled me more than their rushing Alvarez to AA.

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