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Thursday, November 10, 2011

Kelly: Nailing down a closer just got a little tougher for Jays

Uhh…the Neyer-fueled Clubhouse Confidential on closers will be replayed at 7:30.

This doesn’t solve Toronto’s number-one off-season conundrum — that of blown saves. The Jays’ closer platoon cost them 25 games last year. If the club’s ninth inning staff had converted a dozen of those frittered-away games, Toronto finishes 93-69 with a wild-card berth.

So, given these two conflicting impulses, where does Anthopoulos stand?

“All (last season’s struggle) did was confirm our thoughts: that the relief role is the most volatile one on a major league roster,” Anthopoulos wrote. “Kevin Gregg was a great example with us. He lost his closer’s job in Chicago and then posted a career high in saves with us the following year.”

...That leads in turn to the Kevin Gregg of this off-season — Minnesota’s Joe Nathan. He has been an elite closer. He lost the 2010 season to Tommy John surgery, but won back his ninth-inning spot in July last year and looked strong down the stretch. He’s nearly 37 years old and will not cost the Jays a draft pick. The club has the cash to overpay him on a short term.

If Anthopoulos is looking to make his favourite sort of gamble — on a proven, but currently undervalued reclamation project — Nathan fits that description.

Repoz Posted: November 10, 2011 at 12:31 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: blue jays, projections, sabermetrics

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1. Good cripple hitter Posted: November 10, 2011 at 01:16 AM (#3989671)

This doesn’t solve Toronto’s number-one off-season conundrum — that of blown saves. The Jays’ closer platoon cost them 25 games last year. If the club’s ninth inning staff had converted a dozen of those frittered-away games, Toronto finishes 93-69 with a wild-card berth.

I hate this kind of math, because it assumes that all blown saves lead to losses, and that all blown saves are by the closer.

Jays who had blown saves, followed by the team's record in the blown saves:
Rauch, 5 (1-4)
Francisco, 4 (2-2)
Camp, 3 (1-2)
Scrabble, 3 (2-1)
Frasor, 2 (0-2)
Janssen, 2 (1-1)
Perez, 2 (0-2)
Lisch, Miller, Tallet, Villanueva 4 combined (1-3)

So instead of the closer platoon costing the team 25 games, it's the bullpen as a whole blowing 17 games.

Getting a closer isn't a magic path to contention for the Jays, especially given how many relievers (Rauch/Francisco/Scrabble/Camp/Frasor/Dotel) they need to find replacements for. They also need a second baseman, better offensive production from a few positions, probably some more starting pitching, etc.

2. cardsfanboy

Posted: November 10, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#3989674)

I'm glad someone else looked this up before me. Have to agree with Good cripple hitter, this type of math is laziness masked as analysis while attempting to deal with a gullible audience which is already willing to agree with the premise.

3. Repoz

Posted: November 10, 2011 at 01:30 AM (#3989681)

this type of math is laziness masked as analysis while attempting to deal with a gullible audience which is already willing to agree with the premise.

I'm dizzy...but I agree!

4. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: November 10, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3989684)

There may even be some double counting in the 17 games losses, and obviously you have to compare it to league average in order to get any sense of what might be expected. But that would require actual work.

5. Fancy Pants is braggadocious about his Handle Posted: November 10, 2011 at 01:36 AM (#3989687)

I'm dizzy...but I agree!

GROUPTHINK!!!

I agree though. The Jays pen could certainly have been improved, but we're talking maybe 3-4 wins, not 12. Expecting them to only cost the team 5 games is sheer lunacy. It would be like expecting Jo Jo Reyes to win 24 games...

6. Silencio Posted: November 10, 2011 at 01:50 AM (#3989691)

You guys are right about the lazy math in the article, but I think the article is probably right about Nathan. I think he could be a good signing(as far as any closer signing could be considered a good signing anyways). Like mentioned he doesn't cost a draft pick. Also his velocity and results improved over the season, which seems more likely to continue to 2012 given his return from TJ than it would be for your average 37 year old pitcher. And isn't it pretty common with TJ for it to take a year for a pitcher to become healthy enough to pitch again and then another year for the pitcher to be pitching back to normal(of course not all pitcher go back to normal, but I think it often takes about a year for the ones that do). Also even last year he still had decent peripherals outside of HR rate. His SIERA was 3.25.

I haven't heard much about how much hes going to sign for, but Id bet that his contract turns out better than most of the other closer free agent contracts do.

7. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: November 10, 2011 at 02:31 AM (#3989731)

I'd rather have Nathan on pretty much any one-year contract over Madson's (yet to be signed) deal or the numbers and years being thrown around for Papelbon.

8. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 10, 2011 at 02:37 AM (#3989733)

Someone needs to offer half their farm system for Andrew Bailey, clearly. Maybe someone that can hit...

9. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: November 10, 2011 at 02:50 AM (#3989742)

Someone needs to offer half their farm system for Andrew Bailey, clearly. Maybe someone that can hit...

This is misguided. They'll stop hitting when they come to Oakland anyway. MOAR PITCHING.

10. ...and Toronto selects: Troy Tulowitzki Posted: November 10, 2011 at 02:52 AM (#3989743)

Someone needs to offer half their farm system for Andrew Bailey, clearly. Maybe someone that can hit...

Some reporter this week was tweeting just that. That AA was looking at Bailey.

11. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: November 10, 2011 at 05:20 AM (#3989926)

I'd rather have Nathan on pretty much any one-year contract over Madson's (yet to be signed) deal or the numbers and years being thrown around for Papelbon.

1000 times this. I think its wiser to find short term answers to closer drama (often in house and cheap) than to give four year contracts to the most highly volatile role on the team.

12. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: November 10, 2011 at 05:32 AM (#3989941)

Agree on Joe Nathan. Billy Wagner was lights-out after he came back from TJ. Nathan can certainly go back to his old self.

13. Ron J Posted: November 10, 2011 at 07:28 AM (#3990060)

#2 Stats did a study of blown saves sometime in the 90s. Teams won somewhere around 1/3 of games in which there was a blown save. In other words, what happened with the Jays last year looks to be perfectly normal.

14. Greg (U)K Posted: November 10, 2011 at 09:49 AM (#3990084)

I was always under the impression that the Jays were punting the bullpen in 2011 anyway. Rauch and Francisco were just there to pick up draft picks after the season. I'm not sure I really buy the "oh no we blew saves, panic, sign closer" story.

15. AROM Posted: November 10, 2011 at 02:14 PM (#3990106)

League average last year was 18 blown saves. As mentioned, not all blown saves are by the closer, and not all end up as losses. The Yankees blew 16 last year, so even having the GOAT and the best setup man of 2011 doesn't make you immune. It's a long season, and no matter what you do you're going to blow some leads.

16. DL from MN Posted: November 10, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3990345)

My guess is the Twins offer Nathan 2 years $12M. Any other team is going to have to top that.

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Thursday, November 10, 2011

Kelly: Nailing down a closer just got a little tougher for Jays

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