Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, June 07, 2014

Kendrys Morales agrees with Twins

They agree that the draft compensation rules are annoying.

Morales’ deal is less than “but in the ballpark” of the $10 million contract that Stephen Drew signed with the Boston Red Sox in May, the source said.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 07, 2014 at 07:49 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: twins

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 07, 2014 at 11:57 PM (#4721181)
Yeah, I figured he'd get a contract as soon as the draft was over. Considering the length of contract, I would have expected him to go to a contender, like the Angels.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: June 08, 2014 at 02:40 AM (#4721217)
I figured Yanks and Texas were the most likely destination. But I wouldn't have given him more than $6 M so if it's really in the neighborhood of Drew's deal, I'm a bit surprised.

But almost everybody in the AL is in contention. 7 teams within 2.5 games of one another for the 2 WC spots and even the Twins are only 2.5 games out of the 2nd WC spot. If they've fallen further back by the deadline, they can ship Morales somewhere.

Kind of an odd move though with Willingham back. I hadn't realized Mauer was having a lousy season but obviously he stays in the lineup. Kubel's having a lousy season too but his track record is about the same as Morales. I don't know anything about Arcia and Pinto but so far so good. Morales most likely improves the team in depth terms but DH/1B doesn't seem like a major hole for the Twins.
   3. Baldrick Posted: June 08, 2014 at 05:35 AM (#4721220)
Kubel's having a lousy season too but his track record is about the same as Morales.

If by 'about the same' you just mean that they're both baseball players.

Kubel has had one season in his whole career with an OPS+ better than Morales' average (120). And that was in 2009. Morales has been positive by WAA every year since 2009, while 2009 was the one and only season of Kubel's career where he was positive. Kubel has 4 WAR over almost 4000 plate appearances. 3.5 of it came in one year. Kubel has 27 Rbat in his career. 24 of that came in one year. Outside of 2009, Kubel has almost literally been a replacement level player.

Morales has been a positive contributor every year, and is a much better hitter than Kubel. He's also a couple years younger. Kubel is at -1.2 WAR for the year. That's disastrously bad. He is their worst player. And he was really bad in 2013, too. There's every reason to think he's done. Replacing him with a cromulent hitter would be a HUGE improvement.
   4. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 08, 2014 at 08:39 AM (#4721224)
This year has a chance of being a crazy playoff run in the AL, in that there are three teams currently a lot better than everybody else...and they happen to be each in a different division. This makes the wild cards very available...but it also has the potential of deluding several teams into thinking they may be a "playoff" team (that is, at a level of quality we typically call "playoff caliber".

I have no idea if Minnesota is a "playoff" team or a team that happens to be near .500 in the AL in 2014...
   5. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: June 08, 2014 at 08:46 AM (#4721225)
Recently in an OOTP season there was a five-way tie for the two NL wild cards. I don't even know how in the world that would be resolved; it would basically require either a round robin or an elimination ladder seeded by common games record or something. OOTP handled it by forgetting one of the five teams existed (sorry, Colorado) and then, for reasons that pass my understanding, awarding the first wild card to a team that played one playoff game (everyone else played at least 2).

The first solution to occur to me is: Rank the five teams according to a tiebreaker credential of your preference; have the bottom two teams on that list play each other, eliminating the loser; then put the winner against the #1 ranked team and the #2 and #3 ranked teams against each other; and there you have your two wild cards for the official play-in game.

Does MLB even have specific rules for scenarios like this, or would Bud just decide on the fly?
   6. Davo Dozier Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4721245)
I don't know anything about Arcia and Pinto but so far so good.
Pinto's their catcher of the future--Kurt Suzuki having a career year has kinda thrown a wrench into their plans with him.

Pinto had an incredibly hot start to the year (he was among the league leaders in walks for a bit), but then pitchers adjusted, realizing he was being WAY too patient (just never swinging at anything), and his numbers have tanked since then--he had been DHing somewhat regularly, but those days are over now (one would think).
   7. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:45 AM (#4721267)
would Bud just decide on the fly?

I don't know, but I would love to see some sort of nightmare scenario like this which can't (fairly) be resolved within the window for WC games. It would probably boil down to a plan like this.
   8. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:01 PM (#4721274)
[5] MLB Wild Card Tiebreaker Procedures

For example:

Determining A, B, C, D Designations in Four-Team Tiebreakers

1. The Club with the highest winning percentage in games among the tied Clubs chooses its designation first, followed by the Club with the second-highest winning percentage and the Club with the third-highest winning percentage. If two Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the two-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which team selects its designation first. If three Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the three-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which teams select their designation first. If all four Clubs have identical winning percentages, then;

2. The Club with the highest winning percentage in intradivision games chooses its designation first, followed by the Club with the second-highest winning percentage and the Club with the third-highest winning percentage. If two Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the two-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which team selects its designation first. If three Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the three-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which teams select their designation first. If all four Clubs have identical winning percentages, then;

3. The Club with the highest winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games chooses its designation first, followed by the Club with the second-highest winning percentage and the Club with the third-highest winning percentage. If two Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the two-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which team selects its designation first. If three Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the three-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which teams select their designation first. If all four Clubs have identical winning percentages, then;

4. The Club with the highest winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game, provided that such additional game was not between any of the tied Clubs, chooses its designation followed by the Club with the second-highest winning percentage and the Club with the third-highest winning percentage. Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until any ties have been broken. [...]

Four-Club Tie for One Wild Card Spot:
After Clubs have been assigned their A, B, C and D designations, Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D on Monday, Sept. 30 (tentatively). The winners of each of those games would then meet on Tuesday, Oct. 1 (tentatively), hosted by the winner of the game between Club A and Club B, to determine the Wild Card Club.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:36 PM (#4721289)
It would probably boil down to a plan like this.


How much would it have changed Bud's legend if he grabbed the mic and was like: "HOME RUN DERBY!!"
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 08, 2014 at 06:37 PM (#4721482)
Kubel has a career 108 OPS+, 113 through age 30. He has 27 Rbat, 46 through age 30. He has 8.2 oWAR, 9.4 through age 30. His WAR numbers are dragged down by lousy defense which would be relevant if we weren't comping him to a DH.

Morales through age 30 has a 120 OPS+, 58 Rbat, 9.3 oWAR. He didn't become a full-time player until age 26 (Kubel had 700 PA under his belt already).

Through age 30, these guys have very similar track records and the entire WAR difference (and then some) is -9 dWAR vs. -3. Since we're talking DH, the latter is irrelevant.

Now Kubel has stunk for the last 1.5 years but we also expect Morales to start tumbling down the cliff any day now as oft-injured late arrivals often do.
   11. Baldrick Posted: June 08, 2014 at 07:17 PM (#4721511)
Yes, if you ignore the last two years and pretend that they're the same age, Morales is still a much better hitter.

But also, the last two years did happen and Morales is younger. Making him a much much better hitter right now.

They were both good in 2009, though Morales was better. Outside of that one year Kubel has been an average hitter who is on the decline. Outside of that one year, Morales has been an above average hitter who has not yet shown signs of decline.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:52 PM (#4721634)
Everyone at the time knew it was stupid of him to reject the QO, so I hope he fired his representation.
   13. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:59 PM (#4721636)
Kubel's having a lousy season too but his track record is about the same as Morales.


Well, they've DFA'd Kubel to make room for Morales.
   14. bobm Posted: June 09, 2014 at 12:18 AM (#4721641)
Everyone at the time knew it was stupid of him to reject the QO, so I hope he fired his representation.

You mean Scott Boras?

mlb.com story

Morales, who turns 31 on June 20, was a free agent over the offseason but did not sign with a team after declining a qualifying offer from the Mariners. If another team had signed him prior to the First-Year Player Draft, it would've lost a pick. But with the Draft in the books, the Twins won't lose a pick for signing Morales.

Morales had other suitors but said he was excited about the chance to play for the Twins. [Twins general manager Terry] Ryan said he reached out to Morales' agent, Scott Boras, about a week ago and the deal came together quickly.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: June 10, 2014 at 01:45 AM (#4722330)
Yes, if you ignore the last two years and pretend that they're the same age, Morales is still a much better hitter.

Morales is exactly the same hitter that Kubel was two years ago. Kubel's "last two years" are 2013 and 2 months of 2014 and about 450 PA. They tell us nothing.

From ages 27-30, Kubel put up a 119 OPS+ in 2132 PA. For those ages, Morales put up an OPS+ of 122 in 1390 PA, missing 1.5 seasons due to injury. Kubel had a 338 OBP vs. Morales 332 so there's nothing really hidden in those OPS+ comps.

Morales is not two years younger than Kubel, he is one year younger than Kubel .... or, if you want to get super technical, 391 days.

They have very similar track records with the only difference as hitters being that Kubel has stunk for his last 450 PA. If you think one year of age and 450 crappy PA wipes out nearly 4 years of identical offensive rate production (and much more durability on Kubel's part) be my guest. Maybe there's good predictive value in that crapitude ... but then it costs you several million dollars to replace him with Morales.

Again, the primary difference between these guys was that Kubel was a terrible LF and Morales was an average or better 1B. But, to the best of our knowledge, Morales is now a full-time DH so that defensive edge is gone.

Now, here's a quiz for all us WAR types. From 27-30, Kubel put up a line of 268/338/480, 119 OPS+ in thsoe 2132 PA but that's only 40 Rbat. Morales put up a line of 278/332/461, 122 OPS+ in just 1390 PA but that's good for 42 Rbat. Now normally that's a function of park effects but if it's park effects why are the OPS+ numbers so close? According to b-r, lgOBP/SLG for Morales was 313/396 and for Kubel 328/414. The OPS+ difference is due to Morales being 6% above lgOBP while Kubel was just 3%. Their SLG+ numbers are the same. But Kubel has 50% more PA so it would seem he should be accumulating a lot more raw value than Morales.

If we look at RC, Kubel is ahead 307 to 187. If we look at RC/27, he's ahead 5.6 to 5.2. BtRuns (whatever they are) puts Kubel ahead 50 to 38. All of those counting stats make sense for roughly equivalent hitters where one has 50% more playing time.

That 3% edge in OBP equates to about 10 points of OBP or a swap of 6 times on base for 6 outs. That's a difference of about 5 runs a year in Morales favor. That's fine, I have no argument with that. But Kubel's 50% extra playing time should more than compensate for that when it comes to raw counting stats. The issue presumably is measuring relative to average -- Kubel's advantage is in Rrep. There the gap is 77 to 52.

Anyway, call it 5 runs per full year ... half a win, roughly worth $3 M or so. But it's 4 months. OK, assume the Twins have nothing bur replacement level DHs throughout the entire org. Now Morales might be worth 1 to maybe 1.5 wins over the last 4 months. That's a range of 5-8 M ... if he stays healthy.

ZiPS projected Morales to a 321 wOBA (same as Justin Smoak, a bit better than Logan Morrison) and a whopping 1.3 zWAR in 492 PA. So that's consistent with about 1 WAR the rest of this season if he stays healthy. In fairness, ZiPS hated Kubel. But then, coming into his age 31 season (same as Morales), ZiPS projected him to a 342 wOBA and 1.6 WAR. Not that that's at all similar to Morales.

Those were 250 horrible PA in 2013 for Kubel to drop his projected wOBA by 50 points.
   16. Baldrick Posted: June 10, 2014 at 02:10 AM (#4722333)
From ages 27-30, Kubel put up a 119 OPS+ in 2132 PA. For those ages, Morales put up an OPS+ of 122 in 1390 PA, missing 1.5 seasons due to injury. Kubel had a 338 OBP vs. Morales 332 so there's nothing really hidden in those OPS+ comps.

Not going to respond to this full post, but...c'mon dude.

Yes, if you EXCLUDE Morales' best year (at age 26), of course his numbers look worse. How about we compare ages 26-30? In those years, Morales has a 128 OPS+ and Kubel is at 118. That's not a minor difference. That's 10 full points.

And let's add in the fact that Kubel has been an atrociously bad hitter from the minute his age 30 season ended. Sure, Morales MIGHT crater. But Kubel already has. The dude is toast. He doesn't have a 'comparative profile' to Morales. He has a comparative profile to a mediocre AAA hitter.
   17. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: June 10, 2014 at 06:45 AM (#4722340)
In before the A's sign Kubel and he hits .330 for two months before going on the DL to stay?
   18. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 10, 2014 at 10:28 AM (#4722438)
ZiPS preseason projections:

Morales 278/331/450
Kubel 226/304/362

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Ray (RDP)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3199 - 9:10pm, Jul 25)
Last: robinred

Newsblog7-25-14 OMNICHATTER
(34 - 9:06pm, Jul 25)
Last: Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio

NewsblogRe/code: Major League Baseball Cries Foul on Net Neutrality Proposal
(2 - 9:02pm, Jul 25)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogHurdles remain in Mets-Rockies deal for Tulowitzki, Gonzalez
(28 - 8:53pm, Jul 25)
Last: Banta

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread July, 2014
(414 - 8:38pm, Jul 25)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogThe Inventor of the High Five
(30 - 8:32pm, Jul 25)
Last: Willie Mayspedes

NewsblogSoE: AN IDIOT IN EXILE
(4 - 8:24pm, Jul 25)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogNoble: Tom Seaver expects Derek Jeter to become first unanimous Hall of Fame inductee
(88 - 7:50pm, Jul 25)
Last: Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick.

NewsblogESPN : GM Offers To Get Prostate Exam During Game
(17 - 7:48pm, Jul 25)
Last: mos def panel

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-25-2014
(8 - 7:27pm, Jul 25)
Last: Eric J can SABER all he wants to

NewsblogWisch: Cooperstown Shouldn’t Close Out Lee Smith
(10 - 7:22pm, Jul 25)
Last: Moeball

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(941 - 6:52pm, Jul 25)
Last: NJ in DC (Now unemployed!)

NewsblogBA Report: MLBPA Files Grievance Against Astros Over Aiken, Nix, Marshall
(4 - 6:02pm, Jul 25)
Last: Boxkutter

NewsblogCSN: Enough is enough — time to move on from Ryan Howard
(112 - 5:39pm, Jul 25)
Last: PreservedFish

SABR - BBTF ChapterWho's going to SABR??
(97 - 4:52pm, Jul 25)
Last: Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band.

Page rendered in 0.1836 seconds
53 querie(s) executed