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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Slapnicka hitter rules!
An argument could be made he belongs in baseball’s hallowed Hall.
Now more than ever.
In light of Mark McGwire’s admission to using steroids and human-growth hormone while setting home run records, and with other high-profile players being suspended for banned substances, Lofton’s statistics may be viewed differently by Hall of Fame voters once he becomes eligible for induction.
Lofton hopes so.
“I was a guy who never did it (steroids), never tried to do it, never wanted to do it but I played against guys who obviously were doing it,” he said. “My competition level had to be at a certain level to be able to compete with those guys who were cheating.
“I was not a cheater, so hopefully they’ll take a look at that and see what I did under that period and hopefully they take that into account.”
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1. Rich Rifkin Posted: January 28, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3448355)Hmmmm.......
But what about their respective peaks?
If you want to say something now, the only thing we'll believe is that you used it and you're proud!
Best 5 seasons
Lofton: 7.7,7.4,5.9,5.3,5.3 = 31.6
Raines: 7.5,6.8,6.0,5.7,5.4 = 31.4
Their best 5 seasons value looks pretty close to me. I'm not saying that Lofton is better than raines because in career and best 5 seasons value he is ahead by 0.2 WAR.
But we, myself included, often look upon the HOF voters as being myopic at best, stupid at worst, for not voting Raines in. Yet there is Lofton with the same career WAR value and the same Peak WAR value. It's something to think about.
As for Rickey outdoing Lou Brock or Eddie Collins, tough nuts. Screw them and their dates of birth.
EDIT: By long-career centerfielder, I mean that, among CFs with a positive OPS+, he is in the top 10 in games played in centerfield, per BB-REF Player Index. Of course, most of the others are a lot better than him.
WAR, though, is also useful for identifying Lofton's significant excess value beyond his OPS+. Lofton produced 82 runs above average during his years in Cleveland with his baserunning and ability to stay out of double plays.
I tend to think Lofton doesn't belong in the Hall, but you can make an impressive case for him. It really all depends on the evaluation of his defense.
Lofton is not a bad candidate for the HOF like a Jim Rice or a Lou Brock. But he's not all that close to a Tim Raines or a Bert Blyleven, either, according to WARP 3 (which is supposed to be adjusted to compare across all eras).
Bert Blyleven career WARP 3 = 92.4
Tim Raines career WARP 3 = 81.7
Bobby Grich career WARP 3 = 78.5
Alan Trammell career WARP 3 = 78.1
Mark McGwire career WARP 3 = 71.6
Will Clark career WARP 3 = 65.8
Joe Torre career WARP 3 = 61.8
Kenny Lofton career WARP 3 = 51.7
Dale Murphy career WARP 3 = 45.3
Lou Brock career WARP 3 = 37.2
Jim Rice career WARP 3 = 34.2
On the bright side, Omar Vizquel might steal 12 bases in this year's postseason.
Lofton is a guy who does well in all of the little things and if you add together enough little things it starts to add up to a fairly big thing. Per AROM's WAR, his baserunning is worth 81 runs over his career (~8 wins), he gains 26 runs for DP-avoidance, 7 runs for ROE (combined ~3 wins), 79 runs for his defensive range (~8 wins), and another 34 runs for his OF Arm (3+ more wins). Adding all of those up gives him an extra 227 runs, or about 23 wins, above what you'd expect just by looking at his raw batting line and knowing that he was a centerfielder.
That's actually more than one-third of his total career WAR. Those 23 wins are the difference between, for example, Tim Raines (64.9 WAR) and Mike Cameron (43 WAR thru 2008) or Johnny Damon (42.2 WAR thru 2008).
I will say, at first blush, that's a BIG leap to make based on what are surely the squishiest numbers underlying WAR. But none of those numbers strike me as implausible (Lofton was an excellent baserunner, he won 4 Gold Gloves), so it does suggest to me that Lofton probably deserves a good hard look when he shows up on the ballot.
EDIT: At least part of a Coke to Matt in #13.
Actually, Ray has asked about Kenny Lofton a couple of times in Ichiro threads.
Really? I remember Lofton as averagish when he was on the Yankees, when he was 37. When he was in his prime and I was a kid, I remember him being pretty awesome. As Kiko mentions, he won 4 Gold Gloves I wasn't alone.
Lofton played most of his games in CF in 2007, at age 40 (which is like 102 in CFer years)! And in his last four years, UZR has him just 2 runs below average total in center. Given how well he aged defensively and how incredibly fast he was when he was younger, I think its safe to say Lofton was at least good in center field at the beginning of his career.
Also consider that his best year, the 7.7 wins in 1994, would look even better had he not missed 50 games because of the strike. That is one incredible season - a top notch speedy leadoff hitter on base all the time, and throwing in a .536 slugging percentage too. That season is almost up there with the best of Rickey!
For some reason I just assume that number was "adjusted"....you mean he was on pace for 10 WAR season ??????
If Lofton was a good put not quite that great CF, maybe he should be closer to 60 WAR. That's a good candidate, but there are a lot of guys in that range who are not in. If you are one of the no steroids in the HOF voters, you should strongly consider Lofton for the reasons he states. You should vote somebody in and if Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, McGwire*, Palmeiro, Manny, A-Rod, etc. are out, somebody has to keep Jeter and Biggio company.
*Maddux and Glavine are guilty. Remember the "chicks dig the longball" commercial where those two pitchers watch big Mac getting all the chicks, go through some quick training, and start hitting longballs themselves? Well, we know what McGwire used, so they must have too. Even if only in the commercial.
I thought Kenny's defense was decent, but he wasn't 1998 Andruw or anything.
I don't have any reason to think he used, nor do I care. But if it was cheating, as Lofton claims, then he should have taken it up with someone - the front office, the union, the press - at the time it was going on. I'm not interested in the clean guys carping about it now when they knew it was going on and not a damn one of them (save Helling) apparently did anything to address it. His belated reaction doesn't strike me as being any better than the longtime scribes who celebrated Mac and Sammy but have become reborn in the anti-PED religion.
Yes, but I don't know how early he began speaking out. It seemed he didn't start until it started to become an issue. Helling is the only one I know of that was addressing the issue long before the MSM started talking about it. Obviously, there may have been a few others, but certainly not enough to get anything done about it. Thus, any sob stories now ring a little hollow to me.
not sure what you mean about how early, but Frank Thomas was pretty much speaking out about it as soon as his baseball cards gathered value. Frank wasn't a reactionary on the issue, for a guy who if you judge based upon looks only, he was consistently the big name guy in the early 90's who was protesting the prolifiiation of steroids
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/stories/2002-07-08-steroids-acov.htm
His Wikipedia page says he was already talking about it in 1995. There's no link to back it up, but it's cited as coming from a Sporting News article from July 24, 1995.
(I also don't know how to link properly, sorry.)
I've brought him up in the Ichiro threads, basically to point out that Lofton, while a tick worse as an offensive player (although Ichiro hasn't played through his late 30s yet), was a good fielding CF with hundreds more MLB games than Ichiro. And that Lofton -- who stole a ton of bases and played CF regularly until he was 40 -- was a pretty good baserunner also.
Basically I was pointing out the incongruity of people pushing Ichiro's case and claiming that Ichiro is now nearly a HOFer based on MLB play alone (Andy is actually ready to put him in right now), while Lofton gets basically ignored.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_n30_v219/ai_17320724/
His Wikipedia page says he was already talking about it in 1995. There's no link to back it up, but it's cited as coming from a Sporting News article from July 24, 1995.
Fair enough. You can include Frank in the very small pile. And if anyone else who was trying to do something about it then wants to say something about it now, I won't mind (Lofton makes no mention of it, so I'll assume he wasn't). But there weren't enough of the clean guys speaking out to make a difference.
As a fan, I don't feel cheated by the steroid era. The owners weren't cheated (actually, they benefited most. Voluntary improved productivity* from employees at no cost to them is a pretty good deal). You really can't cheat the media (and I'm a member of it). The only guys who can genuinely claim they were cheated by the use of PEDs* in the sport were the guys who were clean (since they were losing roster spots and/or their standing among their peers when contracts were signed), and not enough of them bothered to express the outrage at the time to make any headway on the issue. Thus, as far as I'm concerned, virtually all were complicit. And thus, any retroactive moralizing and/or sympathy seeking is going to fall on my deaf ears.
* Assuming PEDs PE'd
What a load of ####. Which winter did he put on 35 lbs? 1987? The guy was huge when he reached the majors, I doubt very much he ever weighed 233 after August 1990.
You could also argue that the guys who succumbed to pressure to use steroids were cheated, especially if it turns out that they end up having medical problems later in life as a result. It's true that it was their decision to make, but they were put in a position where they had to take risks (which may turn out to be small or non-existent, but we don't really know right now) or have their performance relative to their peers suffer.
I'm late in this thread but just wanted to say how happy it makes to know I'm not alone on this one.
Doesn't Matt Stairs have some weird medical condition that was always part of the reason he was overweight?
Lofton was never perceived as the best player on his team, and he shuffled around the league a lot. Regarding the former - I'm not sure whether Belle or Ramirez or even a young Carlos Baerga were actually better players. It's close. According to WAR, there was a stretch where he was the Indians' best player. As for whether being traded repeatedly matters: it really depends. HOF caliber players are not normally shipped around the league left and right. Lofton wasn't, either, in the heart of his prime, but shortly after that, he was. Was this because he was a disruptive influence in the clubhouse, a la Dick Allen, or was it for less important reasons?
The irony there of course is that his post season record was dismal. But he did help his teams get there.
As far as his defense was concerned, my memory of him was as a terrific Centerfielder that was always taking away hits and homers, constantly making highlight reel catches. Interesting to note that he was always in double digits in OF Assists, and usually among the leaders, and during the peak of his career had strong postive ratings for his OFarm. It was only late in his career that his arm became a true liability.
I think that people born in the 80's that weren't really watching a lot of AL Baseball in the early and mid 90's are probably going to think a lot less of his defense
Yeah, he was the rare speedy small guy who could actually throw well. I guess Ichiro is one of those, too. Really, though, a lot of getting outfield assists is also charging balls hard, and making accurate throws. Just to name an example of the top of my head: Darren Bragg had a weak arm, but got good numbers of assists this way.
Maybe it's not Stairs, then. There's some ballplayer who was overweight, but otherwise in good shape due to some rare medical condition, and I forget who it is.
As far as Kenny's HoF chances, sadly it ain't gonna happen. I doubt he'd have done much if he got another season, but he wanted to continue playing and baseball retired him by just not giving him a contract. Not alleging collusion. Lofton's case is also hurt by him getting a late start in baseball. He played college basketball before Houston drafted him. I'm not sure how much playing time he lost to a later start, but any delay to a career hurts the counting stats and if a player is considered borderline losing a season or two on both ends of his career it likely leaves him on the outside of Cooperstown.
It is odd to look back at those stacked Indians teams of the mid 1990's. If in 1994 you told Tribe fans that among players like Belle, Baerga, Lofton, Alomar, Ramirez, etc., that the skinny third baseman would be the one closing in on 600 homers and most assured of a place in Cooperstown they'd have laughed at you.
He was apparently offered a contract. However, it was another one along the lines of 1 year, $1M, and he decided that it just wasn't worth it.
he must have had some bad mojo for those teams: 01 Indians, 02 Giants, 03 Cubs, 04 Yankees. sheeesh, close out a playoff series for once! By logical progression, if Kenny's '05 Phillies had made the playoffs, they would have invented some spectacular way to lose a series - a perfect 10.0 on the Schiraldi scale or something.
their skinny right fielder is also closing in on 600
A 23-year old who hits a homer every 5 games is a guy you take seriously as a big time prospect. He was one year older than Manny, and hit more homers that year and played a tougher defensive position. Plus Thome always PLAYED THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY (trademark symbol here). I'd certainly have liked his chances over Sandy Alomar.
So, how's that working out for you?
I thought the case was that he wanted to continue his career; he turned the offer down thinking he could get something better, but nothing else came along and by that time the $1 mil offer had disappeared.
The thing is this: if Kenny Lofton pushes you over the top, that's great. But in his last few years, he lost the ability to play centerfield well, and while he retained good OBP skills, and even a good SB%, he never hit for enough power to be a dominant left fielder. Contenders could come up with someone better. Non-contenders don't want to mess around with a 40+ player, even if he is the best option they can find, because he won't be around when they are ready to win. He doesn't have the reputation of being a mentor-type who would make a great 4th outfielder on a young team. Even though he was clearly an above-replacement level player his last season, it's easy to see why no one wanted him for another year for any serious amount of money.
Your understanding may be closer to the truth. Either way, it wasn't a matter of Lofton not receiving an offer, but rather not liking the offer he originally received - he did have a chance to continue playing.
His last four years in the league, UZR had him at -2 in CF, or -.5 runs a year. That's pretty good for a guy you could basically pencil in for a .360 OBP and ~25 SBs.
Contenders could come up with someone better.
The Yanks just signed Randy Winn. I'm willing to bet that a decent number of teams who think of themselves as contenders every year have a 4th OFer/CFer/LFer who is worse than Kenny Lofton was (3.0 WAR in 136 games) his last year in the league.
Even though he was clearly an above-replacement level player his last season, it's easy to see why no one wanted him for another year for any serious amount of money.
I don't know what qualifies as a serious amount of money but Lofton definitely could have helped plenty of contenders if they had signed him. He was one of my favorite ballplayers and the big reason I turned sour on Joe Torre was his misuse of Lofton when he was on the Yanks. It was really sad to see him retire when he was still capable of contributing and still interested in playing.
That depends - are braised ribs a medical condition?
It's funny about this. I can remember back in the middle of the 95 season and wondering to myself who the best candidate for MVP in the American League was. My first inclination was to look at a guy on the Tribe, since they were beating the hell out of the rest of the league. Looking over the stats at the time, I figured that Lofton was probably the best pick, since he was putting up really good numbers while playing excellent defense in center fielder, and none of the other guys on the team had really eye-popping numbers at the time. Two months later, one guy did (and, of course, didn't win the MVP either).
Don't thank me. Everything I know I know because of Sean Forman and Sean Smith, the guys at Retrosheet, and people like yourself as well.
yeah, but who says it was muscle in this case?
I watched Thome play AA ball (a double header in London, Ontario circa 1991) and I do remember hoping to see him play because he was touted as the Indians number one prospect. I don't know exactly if he was expected to do as well as he did but we did go to the game looking to see him play.
Lofton was a guy who absolutely did not want to be a backup, as I remember. He kept switching teams toward the end of his career because he was looking for whoever would promise him playing time. I don't see anything wrong with him retiring instead of being a 4th outfielder, any more than a starting pitcher retiring rather than looking for jobs as a middle reliever.
Looking at late career Frank Thomas, I doubt all of those 35 extra pounds, or even most of them, were muscle.
What a bunch of [YOUR CHOICE]!
Lofton will probably not make the 5% mark from the writers, who do not seem capable of understanding that he was a far better player than Lou Brock, notwithstanding their playoff performance.
While I am very aware of your dislike for Ichiro's candidacy, I can't tell if your point is to say that (1) Ichiro is worse than Lofton, Lofton is unqualified, and so Ichiro is also unqualified, or (2) people who like Ichiro should strongly support Lofton.
If your point is (2), anyone, Ichiro lover or hater, who takes the time to look at Lofton will see he is a strong candidate and should support him. His CHONE WAR total is solidly in the "in" range, where only big omissions are above him, lots of solid guys are below him, and his prime, which happens to also be consecutive, is quite strong especially pro-rating for the strike. His teams won. He wasn't scandalous. Unless you really distrust the defensive numbers and think he was an average fielder for his entire career, the other numbers are what they are, and I don't know how you can argue against the man. WAR only credits him with less than 8 fielding wins above average, which is hardly some huge, unprecedented total for a good fielder. Lofton was an average fielder in his upper 30s and was ridiculously fast when young. I don't see how him being a +10 defender per year in the 90s fails the smell test at all. Lofton seems like a slightly better Ashburn.
If your point is (1), it is like arguing that (famous guy) Alomar shouldn't be in because he wasn't as good as (underrated guy) Grich. If you do the work, Grich is obvious, and the fact that Alomar was only a little worse than Grich is in fact a point in Alomar's favor. Similarly, if you buy Ichiro as an average center fielder when there and a +10 range corner guy, which is hardly implausible, Ichiro has a solid HOF prime and is about one typical season away from having a career value equal to the border-liners. Any similarity to Lofton as a player is a point in Ichiro's favor.
Ooh... never use WARP3! Who knows where the adjustments come from and it's mainly done under a broad hypothesis that modern players just have to be better than the old farts. (Note, WARP3 probably helps Lofton if anything ... I'm simply against it on principle.)
Now, BPro does seem to have made some changes to their "replacement level" for WARP but it still seems lower than that used by Chone.
But the reason that BPro puts Raines so far ahead seems to be twofold. First BPro rates both Raines and Lofton as average defensively while Chone puts Lofton way ahead. Second, the BPro numbers seem to have a much smaller positional adjustment.
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