Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, February 11, 2013

Keri: 10 Minutes With Orioles GM Dan Duquette

Using his penetrating Penetra-Vision…Jonah gets to the bottom of the Orioles season.

Dan Duquette is no stranger to statistical concepts in baseball. He hired an eager researcher named Ari Kaplan to build advanced scouting software and run analytics for him back in the early ’90s, when Duquette was just starting his first general manager’s job with the Expos. When he jumped to the Red Sox in 1994, he hired Mike Gimbel, a sabermetrician-by-hobby who’d offered him advice from afar while Duquette was still in Montreal. Years before the publication of Moneyball, Duquette was exploring every avenue to gain an analytical edge over the competition.

So when you remind him that the Orioles won 93 games and crashed the playoffs last year largely thanks to a historic and impossible-to-sustain 29-9 record in one-run games, he gets the question that’s coming next. Duquette understands the concept of regression to the mean. He knows that on paper, the Orioles, more than any other team in baseball, are ripe for a crash back to earth in 2013. He just doesn’t think that’s going to happen.

“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said. “Because we’re returning just about the entire ballclub. Our players are at an age where they should continue to improve. Plus we have another year of experience, along with pennant race and playoff experience.”

...How did the team go 29-9 in one-run games?

The depth of the bullpen really helped, that kept us in a lot of games. We had some serious power in our lineup and won a lot of games with the home run. Chris Davis had a breakthrough year, hit 33 homers. [Adam] Jones had over 30. Matt Wieters progressed as an RBI man. It was really bullpen and power. You gotta give a lot of credit to Buck, the way he managed the bullpen’s workload, the way he gives guys a lot of confidence.

Repoz Posted: February 11, 2013 at 05:26 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, orioles, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 11, 2013 at 06:07 PM (#4367297)
The AL East should be fascinating this year. Almost any outcome is possible.
   2. escabeche Posted: February 11, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4367308)
“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said.


I actually think Duquette is right about this. But I also think a team slightly better than the 2012 Orioles is very unlikely to win 93 games in 2013.
   3. zonk Posted: February 11, 2013 at 06:33 PM (#4367315)
“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said. “Because we’re returning just about the entire ballclub. Our players are at an age where they should continue to improve. Plus we have another year of experience, along with pennant race and playoff experience.”


That's really the best thing to hang his hat on --

Wieters, Jones, Davis, and Chen are are all 26 - and I agree that this is a fine core, all of whom are at an age where they ought to at least hold serve... You've also got Tillman and Machado. It's really a pretty decent core -- but the problem is twofold:

1) One of those guys - maybe two - really need to take a BIG leap forward and

2) Counting on the supporting cast to hold serve isn't a good bet.

Still, the 2012 Orioles weren't the movie Major League come to life -- it's not like it was some collection of never-will-be's and has-beens who just put together a fine season... There's a legitimate core of talent here - at the right age - that had been disappointing for a while, and just suddenly picked the same year to become pretty darn good.
   4. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 11, 2013 at 06:51 PM (#4367331)
The team that finished the 2012 season was also very different from the team that got really lucky early on. IIRC, they outscored their opponents by a healthy amount from August 1 on and the team was excellent overall. Of course it's unlikely that Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman will pitch as well as they did over those last couple months, and lot of those runs came from an insane hot streak from Reynolds, but I think this is fundamentally a sound team, with a decent offense, a decent rotation, good defense, and a good bullpen. I think 85-88 wins is a fair expectation.
   5. DEF: hates freedom Posted: February 12, 2013 at 03:20 PM (#4368060)
I loved Duquette when he was GM of the Expos, and I'm thrilled to see him get another chance, and turn a job that no-one else wanted into a 93 win season and making the playoffs. I hope he manages to surprise everyone agin this year.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
James Kannengieser
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Newsblog10 teams that will soon face Jeter-like consquences with stars
(13 - 6:17pm, Sep 22)
Last: BDC

NewsblogMLB creates pace of game committee
(6 - 6:17pm, Sep 22)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-22-2014
(57 - 6:14pm, Sep 22)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(3445 - 6:14pm, Sep 22)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1958 Ballot
(3 - 6:13pm, Sep 22)
Last: John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy

NewsblogMLB: Braves fire GM Frank Wren; John Hart to take over interim position
(108 - 6:08pm, Sep 22)
Last: bfan

NewsblogRays missing out shows how tough it is to consistently reach playoffs
(9 - 6:06pm, Sep 22)
Last: Shibal

NewsblogJeter Denies Gift Basket Rumors
(5 - 6:05pm, Sep 22)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogSvrluga: Baseball’s Relentless Grind - The Glue
(5 - 5:58pm, Sep 22)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogHBT: Talking head says Jeter is “a fraud” and “you are all suckers”
(211 - 5:55pm, Sep 22)
Last: GuyM

NewsblogCorey Kluber strikes out 14 in second straight start
(12 - 5:54pm, Sep 22)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogRoyals encounter problem with online sale of playoff tickets
(44 - 5:45pm, Sep 22)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogChad | Have a heart! Root for the Royals
(19 - 5:38pm, Sep 22)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogDave Kreiger: New Baseball Hall of Fame voting rules
(82 - 5:23pm, Sep 22)
Last: Misirlou's been working for the drug squad

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - September 2014
(302 - 5:17pm, Sep 22)
Last: Fourth True Outcome

Page rendered in 0.1845 seconds
52 querie(s) executed