Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, February 11, 2013

Keri: 10 Minutes With Orioles GM Dan Duquette

Using his penetrating Penetra-Vision…Jonah gets to the bottom of the Orioles season.

Dan Duquette is no stranger to statistical concepts in baseball. He hired an eager researcher named Ari Kaplan to build advanced scouting software and run analytics for him back in the early ’90s, when Duquette was just starting his first general manager’s job with the Expos. When he jumped to the Red Sox in 1994, he hired Mike Gimbel, a sabermetrician-by-hobby who’d offered him advice from afar while Duquette was still in Montreal. Years before the publication of Moneyball, Duquette was exploring every avenue to gain an analytical edge over the competition.

So when you remind him that the Orioles won 93 games and crashed the playoffs last year largely thanks to a historic and impossible-to-sustain 29-9 record in one-run games, he gets the question that’s coming next. Duquette understands the concept of regression to the mean. He knows that on paper, the Orioles, more than any other team in baseball, are ripe for a crash back to earth in 2013. He just doesn’t think that’s going to happen.

“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said. “Because we’re returning just about the entire ballclub. Our players are at an age where they should continue to improve. Plus we have another year of experience, along with pennant race and playoff experience.”

...How did the team go 29-9 in one-run games?

The depth of the bullpen really helped, that kept us in a lot of games. We had some serious power in our lineup and won a lot of games with the home run. Chris Davis had a breakthrough year, hit 33 homers. [Adam] Jones had over 30. Matt Wieters progressed as an RBI man. It was really bullpen and power. You gotta give a lot of credit to Buck, the way he managed the bullpen’s workload, the way he gives guys a lot of confidence.

Repoz Posted: February 11, 2013 at 04:26 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, orioles, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 11, 2013 at 05:07 PM (#4367297)
The AL East should be fascinating this year. Almost any outcome is possible.
   2. escabeche Posted: February 11, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4367308)
“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said.


I actually think Duquette is right about this. But I also think a team slightly better than the 2012 Orioles is very unlikely to win 93 games in 2013.
   3. zonk Posted: February 11, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4367315)
“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said. “Because we’re returning just about the entire ballclub. Our players are at an age where they should continue to improve. Plus we have another year of experience, along with pennant race and playoff experience.”


That's really the best thing to hang his hat on --

Wieters, Jones, Davis, and Chen are are all 26 - and I agree that this is a fine core, all of whom are at an age where they ought to at least hold serve... You've also got Tillman and Machado. It's really a pretty decent core -- but the problem is twofold:

1) One of those guys - maybe two - really need to take a BIG leap forward and

2) Counting on the supporting cast to hold serve isn't a good bet.

Still, the 2012 Orioles weren't the movie Major League come to life -- it's not like it was some collection of never-will-be's and has-beens who just put together a fine season... There's a legitimate core of talent here - at the right age - that had been disappointing for a while, and just suddenly picked the same year to become pretty darn good.
   4. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 11, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4367331)
The team that finished the 2012 season was also very different from the team that got really lucky early on. IIRC, they outscored their opponents by a healthy amount from August 1 on and the team was excellent overall. Of course it's unlikely that Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman will pitch as well as they did over those last couple months, and lot of those runs came from an insane hot streak from Reynolds, but I think this is fundamentally a sound team, with a decent offense, a decent rotation, good defense, and a good bullpen. I think 85-88 wins is a fair expectation.
   5. DEFenschmirtz Posted: February 12, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4368060)
I loved Duquette when he was GM of the Expos, and I'm thrilled to see him get another chance, and turn a job that no-one else wanted into a 93 win season and making the playoffs. I hope he manages to surprise everyone agin this year.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Randy Jones
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogHow model for Yankees’ vision shows lightning-rebuild hope | New York Post
(51 - 1:56pm, Aug 29)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogOTP 2016 August 29: Minor-league team offers Trump, Clinton bobbleheads with real hair
(70 - 1:53pm, Aug 29)
Last: The Good Face

NewsblogPadres claim Oswaldo Arcia, option Kivlehan | padres.com
(6 - 1:47pm, Aug 29)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogBoston Red Sox must find solutions for struggling bullpen - Boston Red Sox Blog- ESPN
(10 - 1:46pm, Aug 29)
Last: Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer

NewsblogSanchez Fastest In MLB History To 11 HRs
(33 - 1:42pm, Aug 29)
Last: DavidFoss

NewsblogStrained relations? Irate Hammel not happy with Maddon | Chicago Sun-Times
(34 - 1:40pm, Aug 29)
Last: Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™

NewsblogCubs star Kris Bryant has a chance to be a very unique MVP | FOX Sports
(19 - 1:36pm, Aug 29)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogMLB Network's Matt Yallof suffered a stroke
(3 - 12:39pm, Aug 29)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 8-29-2016
(5 - 12:32pm, Aug 29)
Last: Batman

NewsblogSunday Notes: Jessica Mendoza, Stubby Clapp, Strahm, McGuire, more | FanGraphs Baseball
(9 - 12:24pm, Aug 29)
Last: bigglou115

Newsblog2016 NFL thread
(19 - 12:03pm, Aug 29)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogBefore Gary Sanchez-mania, the Yankees had Shane Spencer’s gift | Newsday
(1 - 11:57am, Aug 29)
Last: Captain Supporter

NewsblogOT: August 2016 Soccer Thread
(398 - 11:54am, Aug 29)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogYankees look to refinance $1B debt from new stadium | New York Post
(14 - 11:49am, Aug 29)
Last: catomi01

NewsblogCubs wear onesies on trip from Los Angeles - Chicago Tribune
(2 - 11:32am, Aug 29)
Last: Bote Man makes baseball fun again

Page rendered in 0.1699 seconds
47 querie(s) executed