Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Keri: Cleveland’s band of worm burners

In adding Lowe to a rotation that also includes Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona, the Indians will feature three of this year’s top eight ground-ball-inducing starters. Throw in Ubaldo Jimenez and his above-average ground-ball rate and the Indians will field a staff unlike any other in the game. In a perennially weak division where little edges can mean a lot, the Indians may have found a new path to success, and just maybe a 2012 playoff berth.

To understand how extreme the Indians’ staff figures to be, let’s dive into some numbers. Lowe triggered grounders on 59 percent of the balls in play hit against him in 2011, Masterson 55.1 percent, and Carmona 54.8 percent. Over the past three seasons, Lowe, Masterson, and Carmona put up composite ground-ball rates of 58 percent, 56 percent, and 55 percent, respectively, three of the four highest marks in baseball. With apologies to some of the Tommy John-led staffs and other grounder-heavy rotations of the past, publicly available ground-ball data goes back just a decade. In that time, only five other teams have deployed three starters with GB rates of 50 percent or higher — four of them Cardinals staffs led by sinkerball fetishist/guru Dave Duncan. None had a higher aggregate ground-ball rate among its top three starters than what Lowe, Masterson, and Carmona put up this year.

Any way of getting more innings per start per starter sounds like a good idea to me.

Crispix Attacks Posted: November 08, 2011 at 08:12 PM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: indians, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. shoewizard Posted: November 09, 2011 at 12:10 AM (#3988862)
While he points out that Cabrera was last in UZR last year, he simply states

UZR hates shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, but the Tribe think he's a lot better than the league-worst defender


They can think that all they want, but it's not just UZR that thinks he's a poor defender. Rdrs (-5) and Rtot (-6) concur.

Where this is going to hurt Cleveland is if they don't improve the DP%.

Because this staff is going to give up a lot of hits, due to the higher BABIP on GB than FB, they need to get a DP at a higher percentage than normal to really leverage all these ground ball pitchers. THAT is the secret to maximizing a GB staff. Cleveland had the 3rd worst percentage in baseball last year, when given the chance to turn a DP

LINK. This despite already having the 8th highest GB/FB ratio and 8th highest GB% in MLB.

Another way to look at the DP issue is from UZR's rGDP. Indians 5th worst in baseball. Link

The inability to turn two is going to kill them if they don't improve.


On the other hand

let's say Indians pitchers generated 200 more grounders per season than the rest of the league — an aggressive prediction. Now, say they turned ground balls into outs at a rate 4 percent above league average, another optimistic call. Under that scenario, assuming Indians infielders converted 80 percent of grounders into outs instead of the league average of 76 percent, you'd generate 160 more ground-ball outs in a season. On the other hand, if those 200 extra balls in play were fly balls that didn't leave the park, that could work out even better, since fly balls drop for hits far less often then ground balls do. All of which is to say, the direct effects could be minimal.


Why would he make the assumption here that none of those fly balls would leave the park ? per bb-ref, 7.3% of balls not hit on the ground left the ballpark, so that would come out to 15 homers.

If they manage to allow a dozen or so fewer homers, and the middle infield defense improves at turning the DP, then this strategy will work. Two pretty big if's in my opinion though, and it doesn't look like Cleveland is going to address the keystone combo.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Harveys Wallbangers
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogHimrich’s Top Ten Target Field Foods
(7 - 1:47am, May 26)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread, May 2012
(1832 - 1:32am, May 26)
Last: baudib

NewsblogBoston.com: Curt Schilling’s 38 Studios lays off all staff
(119 - 1:28am, May 26)
Last: Swedish Chef

NewsblogHP: Baseball is leaving the human factor behind
(56 - 1:15am, May 26)
Last: The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow)

NewsblogT.R. Sullivan: Of Frank Robinson, Milt Pappas and Jim Palmer
(8 - 12:40am, May 26)
Last: The Gurus DO NOT BourbonSamurai

NewsblogWilmoth: Nate McLouth Designated For Assignment
(12 - 12:25am, May 26)
Last: Tripon

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1973 Discussion
(15 - 12:13am, May 26)
Last: DanG

NewsblogBud Selig -- No need for more MLB replay for now - ESPN
(86 - 11:59pm, May 25)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogThe Hall of Very Good: Former Cards Slugger Critical of "LaRussa's Regime"
(4 - 11:26pm, May 25)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogCSN to host ‘Phillies at the Beach’ on Memorial Day
(18 - 11:25pm, May 25)
Last: Fielder's the first baseman, Felder is the fielder

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1972 Ballot
(28 - 11:25pm, May 25)
Last: lieiam

Sox TherapyA Winning Ballclub?
(20 - 11:24pm, May 25)
Last: Dan

NewsblogMatschulat: Did I Miss The "Paul Konerko Is So Overrated OMG" Bandwagon?
(27 - 11:16pm, May 25)
Last: baudib

NewsblogTBO: Nerdy Rays head north
(17 - 10:07pm, May 25)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogDodgers want to host NHL's Winter Classic
(22 - 9:38pm, May 25)
Last: Cris E

Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets.

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

Page rendered in 0.1272 seconds
55 querie(s) executed