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Wednesday, September 03, 2014

Keri: Giancarlo Stanton’s Historic Season, Crazy Comps, and Big Payday

What, is Loria funding a You’re a Good Man, Charlie Brown revival?

[Giancarlo] Stanton is on pace to set career highs in batting average, OBP, slugging, and park-adjusted offense. He’s already topped his career highs in walks, total bases, and Wins Above Replacement… Stanton might be the best position player in the NL this year, ranking second in park-adjusted offense and, depending on the source, either first or second among NL hitters in WAR…

There are a couple reasons for Stanton’s assault on pitching this year, beyond his usual power-hitting excellence. First, while he remains strikeout-prone — thanks to staying healthy and playing every day, he’s on pace to fan a career-high 189 times — the rate at which he’s striking out has actually edged lower over the course of his career… Second, Stanton is absolutely annihilating pitches up in the zone this season. He’s slugging .705 on those pitches in 2014, second only to Jose Abreu among qualified hitters. He’s also cut his strikeout rate and swing-and-miss percentage against those pitches…

He’s only the 11th player to mash more than 150 career home runs through his age-24 season… Among position players who have signed for at least $180 million, only Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols had a higher career WAR through their age-24 seasons than Stanton currently has, with 20.9…

Amid the possibility that the Marlins might try to trade Stanton, we scoured the history books to think of a player with this combination of youth, skill, and success who was traded at the same point in his career. The best comp we could come up with was a player who had also amassed just more than 20 Wins Above Replacement through his age-24 season. Of course, that WAR figure underestimates the player’s value at that time, since he was also one of the greatest pitchers of his era.

That’s right. If the Marlins trade Stanton, the closest comp will be the Red Sox selling [Babe] Ruth to the Yankees in 1919… If a pursuing team believes it can lock up Stanton this offseason for well beyond the two years remaining until his free agency, we could see one of the most jaw-dropping trades in baseball history.

The District Attorney Posted: September 03, 2014 at 02:32 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giancarlo stanton, marlins

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   1. Booey Posted: September 03, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4784741)
I mentioned this in another thread, but with the NL batting leaders hovering in the .310-.315 range, Stanton actually has an outside shot at the Triple Crown (as does Jose Abreu in the AL).
   2. boteman Posted: September 03, 2014 at 04:06 PM (#4784807)
So Jonah is saying that if the Marlins trade Stanton, they won't win the World Series again for 86 years???
   3. Moeball Posted: September 03, 2014 at 06:44 PM (#4784948)
So Jonah is saying that if the Marlins trade Stanton, they won't win the World Series again for 86 years???


They'll still be doing better than the Cubs...

Economics have changed how teams do things. That's just a fact of modern living.

In 1990 Eddie Murray had the highest BA in the major leagues (.330) and won no batting title...because Willie McGee with his league-leading BA of .335 still got traded to Oakland by the Cards at the end of August, whereupon Willie slumped considerably with the A's and finished the year with a .324 average overall (he still won the NL batting title). In previous economic climates no team would have ever even remotely considered trading a player having that kind of season.

So it wouldn't surprise anyone for Stanton to be headed northward to NY or BOS soon...$$ rule everything now...
   4. shoelesjoe Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:02 PM (#4784958)
So it wouldn't surprise anyone for Stanton to be headed northward to NY or BOS soon.


What do the Yankees or Mets have in young, cheap MLB ready talent that they could trade for Stanton? The Red Sox might have a couple three guys that could get a deal done, but given how their last batch of can't miss kids cratered this season it might take more than Boston is willing to pay. If I'm the Marlins I'd have the Cubs on speed dial come the off season rather than anybody from NY or Boston.
   5. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:03 PM (#4784959)
It does seem extremely rare that a team trades a player that young who already has a track record like Stanton's. For this reason it seems unlikely that the Marlins will actually trade him. Doing so is like trading your winning lottery ticket for more lottery tickets.

Roberto Alomar being traded by the Padres to the Blue Jays is the closest example I can think of (Alomar was a bit younger), and it was a blockbuster deal (Alomar + Joe Carter for McGriff + Tony Fernandez).
   6. RJ in TO Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4784964)
Roberto Alomar being traded by the Padres to the Blue Jays is the closest example I can think of (Alomar was a bit younger), and it was a blockbuster deal (Alomar + Joe Carter for McGriff + Tony Fernandez).


And in that one, it wasn't like the guys they were receiving were exactly old men either. McGriff was only 26, and Fernandez only 28, so San Diego undoubtedly viewed it as a matter of getting two legitimate established stars in their prime.
   7. The District Attorney Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:22 PM (#4784967)
It does seem extremely rare that a team trades a player that young who already has a track record like Stanton's.
If they looked¹ and found Babe Ruth was the best parallel, that would suggest there really is no parallel. I mean, there's a pretty big difference between getting the rights to a guy for the entire rest of his career, as opposed to two years.

Rickey Henderson was traded when he was still incredibly great, but there are all sorts of distinctions... he was a free agent at the end of the year, the team didn't actually appreciate how good a baseball player he was, the front office didn't like him, and he was 30 (which is still your "prime" when you're Rickey Henderson, but I suppose one could argue it's a distinction.) Alex Rodriguez was of course also traded in his prime, and due to (imaginary) financial issues. But he was 28, and was already being paid on a free agent contract, rather than Stanton where you're getting two highly underpaid years.

Keri is a glass-half-full guy, so I'm not surprised he sees the upside of "there could be a big, exciting trade!" I'm not, and so I see the downside of "there is a MLB team that either cannot afford to, or just does not want to, compete." It would be depressing to me to see Stanton traded. Even if it were to the Mets², it'd still feel dirty, although needless to say, I'd get over it.

¹ I would be curious to have more detail about how they determined this... it honestly would have been more interesting than most of the facts in the article.
² Not exactly something I expect to have to confront.
   8. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:29 PM (#4784972)
What do the Yankees or Mets have in young, cheap MLB ready talent that they could trade for Stanton?

Don't lump the Mets in with the Yankees. Based on everything else he's done as the Mets' GM, there's no reason to think that Alderson is going to clean out the system to get someone's arbitration years, but there's more than enough talent in the system to get a deal done for Stanton if they want.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:31 PM (#4784973)
Isn't the comparable, Miguel Cabrera? Same team, same ownership, roughly speaking at the same point in time in their career, both with a 140+ ops+, both in their fifth season, both are established elite players?
   10. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:41 PM (#4784979)
EDIT:

Isn't the comparable, Miguel Cabrera? Same team, same ownership, roughly speaking at the same point in time in their career, both with a 140+ ops+, both in their fifth season, both are established elite players?

Um, yeah. Wow, can't believe I missed that. I even thought about Cabrera but for some reason I thought he was older when he was traded.
   11. boteman Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:41 PM (#4784980)
Loria could make restitution on all those computers and other stuff he stole from the Expos and just give Stanton to the Nationals. I think that would be fair.
   12. theboyqueen Posted: September 03, 2014 at 08:06 PM (#4784992)
Well if Babe Ruth counts (being a pitcher), what about Pedro Martinez? 23 WAR at age 25, traded after a CYA, 9 WAR season.
   13. theboyqueen Posted: September 03, 2014 at 08:11 PM (#4784999)
And if a 30 year old Rickey counts, then there is the whole Frank Robinson debacle.
   14. Dr. Phil Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:19 PM (#4785027)
So it wouldn't surprise anyone for Stanton to be headed northward to NY or BOS soon...$$ rule everything now...


Bullshit. Teams that trade away that kind of talent CHOOSE not to pay them. Teams make astonishing amounts of money, and they all can afford at least one mega-contract. If forced to give one player a 10 year contract, Stanton would probably be second favorite after Trout.

Miami can afford to pay him, they're going to choose not to.
   15. VCar Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:43 PM (#4785034)
In 1990 Eddie Murray had the highest BA in the major leagues (.330) and won no batting title...because Willie McGee with his league-leading BA of .335 still got traded to Oakland by the Cards at the end of August, whereupon Willie slumped considerably with the A's and finished the year with a .324 average overall (he still won the NL batting title). In previous economic climates no team would have ever even remotely considered trading a player having that kind of season.


By winning the AL batting title that year, George Brett caused a good trivia question -- the first man to win batting titles in 3 decades. However, his winning it meant Rickey didn't, which cost us what would have been a great trivia question -- who were the only teammates to win batting titles in the same season?
   16. TerpNats Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:49 PM (#4785036)
How about Stanton to the Chisox for Abreu? Giancarlo's a better, younger player and you keep him away from the hated North Siders or the AL East evil empires. From a Marlins standpoint, you obtain a Cuban defector who has some power.
   17. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:25 PM (#4785057)
The Red Sox absolutely have the young, cost-controlled talent to make a deal, if Miami is interested in making a trade:

Mookie Betts is a major-league ready 21-year-old who can play 2B or the outfield, and looks very, very good.

Blake Swihart is generally seen as the best or 2nd best catching prospect in baseball. He is young, in AAA, throws out half the SB attempts, and has power.

Henry Owens is one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in baseball, and is pitching well as a AAA guy who is young for the level.

Brian Johnson is probably the 2nd best pitching prospect, and the most polished. He just had a ridiculous season with very strong peripherals at AA, and will be in AAA to start 2015.

Rafael Devers (a 17-yr-old 3B who is raking at the low levels, #4 prospect in the system) and Manuel Margot (speedy OF who is 19, at low-A, hit .340/.364/.560 this yr) are the best "lottery ticket" prospects.

The Red Sox have a ####load of starting pitchers who are in Boston or high minors who project as back-end rotation starters: Ranaudo, De La Rosa, Webster, Wright, Barnes, even Rodriguez.

   18. Greg K Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:31 PM (#4785059)
From a Marlins standpoint, you obtain a Cuban defector who has some power.

But they already have Adeiny Hechavarria. How much power do you need!?!?!
   19. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:40 PM (#4785064)
There's really no reason that the Marlins should trade Stanton. They have the money to pay him and they were a competitive team despite their best pitcher getting hurt. The NL East isn't looking as a fierce as it might have last year. They should keep them.

They probably wouldn't trade him to the Mets but Syndergaard, Herrera, and Plawecki would be a good package for him IMO.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:43 PM (#4785068)
There's really no reason that the Marlins should trade Stanton.


They are the Marlins, that is what they do. They don't need a reason. Every dollar not spent on a player is more money from revenue sharing that Loria gets to pocket, he doesn't seem to understand that if he puts out a good recognizable product, he might get a larger fan base which will give him more money etc.
   21. Ziggy Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:00 PM (#4785082)
But there's risk involved in fielding a good team - that is, they might not be good and then you're losing money. The Marlins are an exceptionally well-run franchise: they have a guaranteed profit each year with no risk. They are also despicable and ruining baseball in south Florida (which really *should* be one of the prime baseball locations in the country), but they do know what they're doing.
   22. Norcan Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:02 PM (#4785085)
If I were in charge of the Cubs, I'd be real tempted to try and trade Soler, Baez and Almora for Stanton. That's two MLB ready young players and maybe even more importantly, two of the three are of Cuban descent. From the Cubs perspective, as exciting as the young players may be, Stanton is also still very young and a core of Stanton, Rizzo, Bryant, Castro, Russell with further minor league reinforcements in the pipeline would constitute an outstanding core with less developmental uncertainty.
   23. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:51 PM (#4785115)

Isn't the comparable, Miguel Cabrera? Same team, same ownership, roughly speaking at the same point in time in their career, both with a 140+ ops+, both in their fifth season, both are established elite players?


Yeah, I don't know what method gets Babe Ruth and his 190 OPS+ for Boston a better comp for Stanton than the guy who had the same OPS+ (143) through the same age for the same team. Two frigging points of WAR isn't enough to make up that kind of difference in actual hitting performance.

   24. Spahn Insane Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:28 AM (#4785120)
If I were in charge of the Cubs, I'd be real tempted to try and trade Soler, Baez and Almora for Stanton.

I wouldn't. (OK, maybe it's not as bad as I first thought. Still.)

If I could get Stanton signed to an extension, I'd consider it. Maybe.
   25. zonk Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:33 AM (#4785121)
If I were in charge of the Cubs, I'd be real tempted to try and trade Soler, Baez and Almora for Stanton.

I wouldn't.


I think I would... I just don't think the Marlins would go for it. I like Soler a lot, but his upside is probably Stanton (and yeah, that's a hell of upside - but Stanton is already Stanton). Baez, I think, does have a chance to be special... and Almora, I'm not so sure about. After a nice little bump midseason, he floundered a bit down the stretch and finished with pretty pedestrian numbers.

If I'm the fish, I think I'd want more...
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:45 AM (#4785127)
Yeah, I'm a little more persuaded than I was at first. I'd still condition it on getting a couple of Stanton's free agent years as part of the package, I think.
   27. Spahn Insane Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:49 AM (#4785128)
If I'm the fish, I think I'd want more...

Oh, I dunno--you get a guy who's MLB ready to play Stanton's position and whose upside, as you note, is conceivably Stantonesque, plus another MLB-ready guy at an up-the-middle position who could end up being better than Soler (not that I think that's *likely*, but it's not inconceivable, particularly given Soler's health concerns), plus a guy with a non-zero chance of stardom and a decent chance of being a solid regular CF? How much more are you expecting in a salary dump, even when the salary being dumped is Giancarlo Stanton's?
   28. Howie Menckel Posted: September 04, 2014 at 01:14 AM (#4785131)

Agree that's not a bad offer and the Cubs are a sensible landing place for Stanton.
   29. PreservedFish Posted: September 04, 2014 at 01:30 AM (#4785135)
Isn't that three top 50 prospects? Monster deal. If they are truly inclined to deal, the Marlins would take that.
   30. cheng Posted: September 04, 2014 at 06:51 AM (#4785144)
Just for fun, that means the Cubs by early 2015 could trot out:

CF Alcantara
2B Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
SS Russell
C Castillo
LF warm body


Sign Lester and your rotation would be

Lester
Arrieta
Turner
Hendricks
Cheap FA signing (in the mold of Feldman or Hammel)

That's a playoff team, no? Top remaining hitting prospect would be Schwarber at AA, and you'd still have arms like Edwards and Johnson in the high minors.
   31. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: September 04, 2014 at 06:58 AM (#4785145)
If the Red Sox get Statnton, I hope Betts isn't part of the deal.
   32. bfan Posted: September 04, 2014 at 07:45 AM (#4785151)
I think Red Sox prospects are chronically over-rated. I give them credit for a smart front-office that recognizes talent that will play well in Fenway, and a great PR machine for their prospects. The top 4 OPS among the starters on the 2012 series winner? Salty; Napoli; Victorino; and Ortiz.
   33. flournoy Posted: September 04, 2014 at 10:09 AM (#4785229)
Who is the best player to have played his whole major league career with the Marlins? Excluding active players, I can't come up with anyone more distinguished than Josh Booty.

EDIT: Maybe Chuck Smith? I guess Joe Strong is just as good as Josh Booty.
   34. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 04, 2014 at 10:51 AM (#4785271)
I'd go with Renyel Pinto.

   35. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 04, 2014 at 11:03 AM (#4785282)
I think Red Sox prospects are chronically over-rated. I give them credit for a smart front-office that recognizes talent that will play well in Fenway, and a great PR machine for their prospects. The top 4 OPS among the starters on the 2012 series winner? Salty; Napoli; Victorino; and Ortiz.


I don't think that's quite true. I'd be interested in seeing some kind of systematic study on the hit/miss rate of Sox prospects versus other teams. Because of the attention they get I think the misses get noticed more than other team's misses. Other team's misses are not as noticed by the majority of fans because they are not as well publicized.

That notoriety probably does have some value to the Sox. It's a bit easier for a team to sell a trade for a guy like Betts who has been all over ESPN than it would be for a guy like, oh I don't know, Maikel Franco. Whether or not that impacts the decision making process for teams is an open question.

If you use WAR instead of OPS Ellsbury and Pedroia both jump into that top four list instead of Saltalamacchia and Napoli.
   36. billyshears Posted: September 04, 2014 at 11:16 AM (#4785297)
If I were in charge of the Cubs, I'd be real tempted to try and trade Soler, Baez and Almora for Stanton. That's two MLB ready young players and maybe even more importantly, two of the three are of Cuban descent. From the Cubs perspective, as exciting as the young players may be, Stanton is also still very young and a core of Stanton, Rizzo, Bryant, Castro, Russell with further minor league reinforcements in the pipeline would constitute an outstanding core with less developmental uncertainty.


I understand that the Cubs have an amazing farm system and in theory that's a good package, but I think in principle every Stanton deal has to start with a player who is at least arguably a team's best prospect. That means Russell or Bryant for the Cubs. General rule of thumb - if it doesn't hurt a bit to think of giving up the prospects in a proposed deal, it's probably not going to happen.
   37. Swedish Chef Posted: September 04, 2014 at 11:33 AM (#4785313)
That notoriety probably does have some value to the Sox. It's a bit easier for a team to sell a trade for a guy like Betts who has been all over ESPN than it would be for a guy like, oh I don't know, Maikel Franco. Whether or not that impacts the decision making process for teams is an open question.

Oh, I remember when the Marlins traded for that overhyped prospect Hanley Ramirez (No sarcasm, he really was overhyped), that was good times. The downside is of course that the player's faults get magnified too, like this Jackie Bradley Jr thing.
   38. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:14 PM (#4785368)
Oh, I remember when the Marlins traded for that overhyped prospect Hanley Ramirez (No sarcasm, he really was overhyped), that was good times. The downside is of course that the player's faults get magnified too, like this Jackie Bradley Jr thing.


How was Ramirez overhyped? He put up 23 WAR in his first 4 years with the Marlins! If Ramirez is considered overhyped then pretty much every prospect other than Mike Trout is ridiculously overhyped as well.
   39. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4785382)
I understand that the Cubs have an amazing farm system and in theory that's a good package, but I think in principle every Stanton deal has to start with a player who is at least arguably a team's best prospect. That means Russell or Bryant for the Cubs. General rule of thumb - if it doesn't hurt a bit to think of giving up the prospects in a proposed deal, it's probably not going to happen.

So a deal centered around Russell/Soler and something else, you mean? The Marlins are probably going to value Soler a little higher than other teams due to his nationality and the long term, team friendly deal. I think I do that if I'm the Cubs.
   40. Swedish Chef Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4785385)
How was Ramirez overhyped? He put up 23 WAR in his first 4 years with the Marlins! If Ramirez is considered overhyped then pretty much every prospect other than Mike Trout is ridiculously overhyped as well.

That is hindsight speaking. He had a huge hype compared to mediocre production as a minor leaguer.
   41. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4785388)
I'd say he was properly hyped when he was very young, but by the time he was traded expectations were tempered by his less than stellar 2011 at Portland and concerns over his work habits/attitude.

No one expected him to be so good, so fast with the Marlins.
   42. McCoy Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:47 PM (#4785392)
Have the Marlins shown any inclination whatsoever at valuing a Cuban player above and beyond what production the player produces and for how much that production costs?
   43. billyshears Posted: September 04, 2014 at 12:49 PM (#4785395)
So a deal centered around Russell/Soler and something else, you mean? The Marlins are probably going to value Soler a little higher than other teams due to his nationality and the long term, team friendly deal. I think I do that if I'm the Cubs.


I think so. It's a matter of optics, but Stanton is so good that I don't think the Marlins can walk out of the deal if the headline prospect is the other team's 3rd best prospect, even if that prospect is a top 10 overall prospect in baseball.
   44. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: September 04, 2014 at 01:02 PM (#4785407)
That is hindsight speaking. He had a huge hype compared to mediocre production as a minor leaguer.


Ah, gotcha, that makes sense.
   45. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 04, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4785416)
I think Hanley was considered a guy who was bored with the minors.
   46. Sonic Youk Posted: September 04, 2014 at 01:37 PM (#4785439)
Going back to the start of the Theo era, I actually think the Red Sox would be among the best teams at turning top 100 prospects into actual good players. Maybe they're "overrated" in the sense that you hear about them a lot, but that's about it.
   47. madvillain Posted: September 04, 2014 at 04:19 PM (#4785623)
Just to give a little perspective on how good Jose Abreu is: Stanton wRC+ : 161 (2nd in MLB). Jose Abreu wRC+ : 169 (#1 in MLB). VMART is 3rd and Trout is 4th. Good company among those talented hitters.

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