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Thursday, May 30, 2013

Kernan: As Replacements sputter, Yanks need rescue from Regulars

Here Comes a Regular…or Two.

Their job is done, their time has come.

It’s time for the Yankees Replacements to be replaced. Even Lyle Overbay, who has played tremendously in a fill-in role for Mark Teixeira at first base, understands this cold fact of baseball life.

The Replacements have run their course, and last night’s 9-4 stomping by the Mets at Yankee Stadium was more proof. The Mets have won all three Subway Series games. It was the Yankees’ fourth straight loss.

Teixeira (wrist) and third baseman Kevin Youkilis (back) are set to return tomorrow night against the Red Sox. Summer weather is finally here, and so is much of the Yankees lineup. There is no time to waste.

For those thinking the Yankees are better off with The Replacements instead of the regulars, please get a grip.

“We’ll be better with these guys,’’ Brian Cashman told me regarding the return of Teixeira and Youkilis. “And it’s great to have guys that you can rely on that we currently have. We’re a deep organization. We found out that David Adams is now healthy and he can compete and help you win games up here, so we’re now better than we were two months ago.’’

...“I want Teixeira back,’’ the honest and unselfish Overbay told me. “He’s a better player and he’s going to take this team to a different level. That’s what I want to be a part of. I don’t have anything else to prove. I want to win a championship.’’

Noted Cashman, “Everybody in the clubhouse recognizes it’s all about the team. We have a lot of high-quality people in there. They all have their journeys, but they are all linked together by two things: that Yankee uniform and wanting to win.’’

Repoz Posted: May 30, 2013 at 07:02 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, yankees

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   1. TomH Posted: May 30, 2013 at 09:29 AM (#4455540)
Next, they need all of their over-38-y-old pitchers to go on the DL. Or get old quickly. THAT would be fun.
   2. Dale Sams Posted: May 30, 2013 at 10:49 AM (#4455639)
Christ, blow a couple of games and it's back to the pre-season bedwetting again.
   3. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 30, 2013 at 10:53 AM (#4455647)
When your team does nothing but win year after year after year after year, you have to stretch a bit to satisfy your fundamental human need to complain and to play backseat GM.
   4. The TVerik of Lordly Might Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:06 AM (#4456577)
...“I want Teixeira back,’’ the honest and unselfish Overbay told me. “He’s a better player and he’s going to take this team to a different level. That’s what I want to be a part of. I don’t have anything else to prove. I want to win a championship.’’


Do you think that Lyle understands that not only is his job threatened, but his roster spot? Unless he has some positional versatility that I don't know about, I don't think the Yankees can afford to carry a backup 1B/DH.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:49 AM (#4456590)
Do you think that Lyle understands that not only is his job threatened, but his roster spot?

Overbay has been around, and he has agent, so he surely knows, even if he's avoiding saying "I'm doomed". The Yankees may try to keep him around for a bit -- there could be more injuries -- but the numbers don't really allow for that for very long.
   6. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: May 31, 2013 at 08:48 AM (#4456646)
The Yankees' problem isn't that complicated: They've got a thoroughly mediocre offense (team OPS+ of 91) and a rotation with one reliable starter (Kuroda) and a lot of miles on the odometer. The bullpen's both deep and terrific, but that's not going to do them much good if there's nothing to protect. That's not "bedwetting", that's reality.
   7. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: May 31, 2013 at 11:18 AM (#4456812)
Christ, blow a couple of games and it's back to the pre-season bedwetting again.

Well, they have had years of experience of watching Red Sox fans, so they've learned from the best.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: May 31, 2013 at 11:53 AM (#4456852)
rotation with one reliable starter (Kuroda) and a lot of miles on the odometer .... That's not "bedwetting", that's reality.


Removing Sabathia from a list of reliable starters because of one bad start is as perfect an example of 'bedwetting' as can be found.
   9. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:00 PM (#4456929)
Noted Cashman, “Everybody in the clubhouse recognizes it’s all about the team. We have a lot of high-quality people in there. They all have their journeys, but they are all linked together by two things: that Yankee uniform and wanting to win.’’

He continued, "For Overbay, there is no tomorrow. And that makes him a very dangerous man."

"Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. And glory lasts forever."
   10. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:32 PM (#4456954)
Removing Sabathia from a list of reliable starters because of one bad start is as perfect an example of 'bedwetting' as can be found.

One bad start, eh?

Sabathia's ERA for his first 4 starts: 2.57
Sabathia's ERA for his last 7 starts: 4.84

He could well come back, but given his record over the past 6 weeks along with his loss of velocity, do you really think we can "rely" on that?
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:38 PM (#4456964)
His ERA on the season was 3.43 before the bad start, and his ERA in the 6 starts before the bad start was around 4.00, so yes, it is one bad start that is supposedly pushing him out of the reliable category.

And if your criteria is tough enough to not consider CC Sabathia a reliable SP, then you don't have to worry because almost all of the competitors also don't have more than 1 'reliable' starters.
   12. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4456966)
From June 15 to July 19, 2007 Sabathia had an ERA of 5.32 over 7 starts. Small sample sizes.

Yeah, the velocity is troubling but Sabathia has a long track record of being a great pitcher. Until he definitively stops being a great pitcher I think expecting him to bounce back should be the default expectation. For what it's worth FanGraphs shows his velocity as elevating each start over this recent stretch. It's still down relative to past years but he looks to be about 1.5-2 MPH faster than he was at the start of the season.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 31, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4456981)
Looks like Teixeira & Youkilis are being rushed a bit (2 AA games & few simulated contests), but desperate times call for desperate actions. Except things aren't all that desperate - 2 games out of the AL East lead and the Wildcard leader. Not that bad, given where they were predicted by most (although not me) before the rash of injuries. Pitching will have to be good, but that is not all that improbable.
   14. SG Posted: May 31, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4456986)
CC's average velocity by start (using Fangraphs's pitch type game logs)

4-01: 89.7
4-07: 90.3
4-12: 89.4
4-17: 89.0
4-22: 90.1
4-27: 90.2
5-03: 90.1
5-09: 89.9
5-14: 90.2
5-20: 90.4
5-26: 90.6

There are variations in pitch speed measurements in some parks so there's some uncertainty with these numbers but I'm not really seeing evidence of him picking up much velocity.
   15. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 31, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4457009)
4-01: 89.7
...
5-26: 90.6

but I'm not really seeing evidence of him picking up much velocity.


Looks like he's picked up about 1 MPH to me. Jose was only claiming 1.5-2 MPH, so he's a bit off, but there is clear improvement.
   16. SG Posted: May 31, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4457017)
But he was at 90.3 in his second start. It's not really a steady increase. He's basically sitting in the same place he's been all year.
   17. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: May 31, 2013 at 02:48 PM (#4457043)
I suck at using FanGraphs so I was just looking at the graphs and eyeballing it. I hadn't looked at the actual numbers (because I couldn't find them). Anyway, the improvement isn't as dramatic as it looks graphically though it's there. I think we'll have a good idea tonight. One thing I'm curious about, and I haven't seen enough of his starts, is the idea that CC still has some juice in reserve but he's just using it more judiciously as he ages.
   18. Dan Posted: May 31, 2013 at 03:13 PM (#4457085)
One thing I'm curious about, and I haven't seen enough of his starts, is the idea that CC still has some juice in reserve but he's just using it more judiciously as he ages.


That hasn't been the case this year. He's been reaching back to throw the ball past guys, and the resulting fastballs have been 92 MPH. The velocity simply isn't there.
   19. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: May 31, 2013 at 04:01 PM (#4457141)
[Sabathia's] ERA on the season was 3.43 before the bad start, and his ERA in the 6 starts before the bad start was around 4.00, so yes, it is one bad start that is supposedly pushing him out of the reliable category.

I'm putting Sabathia out of the "reliable" category because I don't see any evidence that the Yanks can rely on him to bounce back to being the Sabathia of old. That doesn't make it impossible, just that they can't rely on it in the same way they could have when his velocity was higher than it's been this year.

And if your criteria is tough enough to not consider CC Sabathia a reliable SP, then you don't have to worry because almost all of the competitors also don't have more than 1 'reliable' starters.

Yes, but then you've also got the little matter of an offense with a 91 OPS+, a distant 5th in their division.
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 31, 2013 at 10:03 PM (#4457482)
I'm putting Sabathia out of the "reliable" category because I don't see any evidence that the Yanks can rely on him to bounce back to being the Sabathia of old.

7.1 innings is some evidence.
   21. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: May 31, 2013 at 10:45 PM (#4457547)
7.1 innings is some evidence.

It was beautiful, and obviously this is a case where I hope I continue to be proven wrong. Between C. C.'s pitching and the Orioles' down-to-their-last-strike comeback against Valverde (on a walkoff HR by a former Yankee), this was one hell of a night both for baseball and for America.
   22. PerroX Posted: May 31, 2013 at 11:31 PM (#4457561)
Look me in the eye then, tell me that I'm satisfied.

Hey, are you satisfied?
   23. Baldrick Posted: June 01, 2013 at 01:11 AM (#4457606)
Hey Yankees fans, if your team is eight games over .500 and currently in a playoff position, you might want to hold off from pissing your pants.

Sincerely,
Fans of Teams That Don't Routinely Get All-Star Performances From Scrubs
   24. LionoftheSenate (Brewers v A's World Series) Posted: June 01, 2013 at 03:39 AM (#4457626)
I bet most of the pitchers that made the HOF or ended up with 300 career wins lost velocity over their career. Stat geeks are overreacting to the loss in velocity. It is worth tracking, but it's hardly certain doom.

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