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Monday, September 03, 2012

Kernan: If A-Rod can’t save Yanks, look out below

They went Lavarnway…

The Yankees need all the help they can get. They are staggering. Don’t forget, the Red Sox were in first place heading into September last year. Since then, they are 69-93.

The aging Yankees could be heading to a collapse of their own. They need to turn it around and fast.

The fact the Yankees need A-Rod, who at the age of 37 is hitting .276 and has only 15 home runs and 44 RBIs and has been limited by injuries the last two years, shows you the desperate state this team is in heading down the stretch.

Joe Girardi was quite testy after the loss. It was not a good day for the manager as he stayed too long with an ineffective Phil Hughes, who really needed to step up yesterday, but didn’t. Hughes went into the sixth with a 3-1 lead and surrendered a three-run bomb to Mark Reynolds, his second home run of the day and fourth of the series.

Rodriguez played for the Class A Tampa Yankees on Friday and Saturday and went through an extensive workout in Tampa yesterday to try to prepare for today and the matchup against Big Game James Shields.

“It’s time to step it up,’’ said CC Sabathia, who will get the ball for the Yankees.

Repoz Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:11 AM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4225445)
"Stayed too long?" Was he watching the same game I was? Hughes looked as good as he ever has, and suddenly, suddenly lost it.
   2. FrankM Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4225447)
Well, he should have pulled Hughes just before he suddenly lost it.
   3. Chris Fluit Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4225465)
Hughes was certainly in control in the game I listened to. 3 up, 3 down in the 1st. 3 up, 3 down in the 2nd. A single in the 3rd. A single in the 4th. Hughes didn't run into trouble until the 5th when he gave up the lead-off home run to Reynolds and two other hits. But it's silly to say that Girardi clearly should have taken Hughes out after 5 when the Yankees were leading and Hughes had only had one poor inning.
   4. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4225468)
But it's silly to say that Girardi clearly should have taken Hughes out after 5 when the Yankees were leading and Hughes had only had one poor inning.
That's because you're not using hindsight. It's 20/20! Come on!
   5. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4225471)
If only the Yankees had been battling injuries or something that would explain their performance -- losing a couple corner infielders, an outfielder, 3/5 of their rotation...
   6. Chris Fluit Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4225473)
I left my prescription glasses for hindsight at home.
   7. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4225484)
I see in the Yankees a lot of the reasons for concern I had about the Sox at this time last year as noted by Mayor Bloomberg in #5. However, I wouldn't expect a dramatic collapse because such things rarely happen and the Yankee pitching staff is in much better shape even at this point than the Sox were a year ago.

The problem for the Yankees is that while they have an additional Wild Card to fall back on it is not the same as winning the division. Had the Sox survived game 162 last year they would have been in fundamentally the same situation the other playoff teams were and the September struggles would have been an inconvenience. This year, if the Yankees simply fail to win the division there is the real penalty of playing a one off, winner take all game.
   8. rconn23 Posted: September 03, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4225498)
Allowing Hughes to face Reynolds again when he had yet to retire a batter in the 6th and was approaching 100 pitches was awful managing.
   9. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 03, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4225506)
You'd have brought in the bulletproof Joba right there?
   10. escabeche Posted: September 03, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4225507)
If only the Yankees had been battling injuries or something that would explain their performance -- losing a couple corner infielders, an outfielder, 3/5 of their rotation...


The Orioles have had to replace FOUR fifths of their opening day rotation, and their starting left fielder and third baseman as well.

   11. Magnum RA Posted: September 03, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4225511)
I didn't think I would see the day where Girardi was criticized for NOT pulling a pitcher. He used 5 in one inning yesterday. It would have been torture to watch if I wasn't an O's fan.
   12. Dale Sams Posted: September 03, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4225523)
Uh-ohhh...Yanks only have 3-4 HOFers in the line-up today. Poor guys.
   13. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: September 03, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4225595)
So, Hughes has obviously been killed by HRs this year. Anybody smarter than me have any insight as to why?
   14. Kurt Posted: September 03, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4225605)
The Orioles have had to replace FOUR fifths of their opening day rotation

Yeah, but the Orioles have had to replace four fifths of THEIR opening day rotation.
   15. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 03, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4225607)
He's a flyball guy, works up in the zone. The odd thing is that he's been great at the Stadium this year and not good on the road. And the Stadium, reputationally, is a home run park.
   16. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4225621)
Rays have just taken the lead, the O's have already won. There's no guarantee of a play-in game for the Yanks if they lose the division. They have the same record as the A's and there are a lot of teams right on their heels. I'm as shocked the AL East has tightened up this much as I'm shocked the A's are actually good this year. I really don't know anything about baseball.
   17. Dan Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4225624)
Yankees lose. O's 1 game back. Rays 2.5 back.
   18. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4225633)
Weird play at the end of the Yankee game. On a 2-1 pitch with the runner on third Granderson swung at a pitch in the dirt that Molina blocked out in front. Granderson as a courtesy picked the ball up and handed it to Molina. Of course it was a live ball and it looked like Molina was lobbying for an interference call on Granderson. He didn't get it but what a finish that would have been.
   19. Lassus Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4225648)
I just saw a clip of the GWRBI - how the #### does Cano not dive for that ball?
   20. escabeche Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4225657)
As I said in the Wild Card thread, I have no idea whether O's fans should be rooting for New York or Tampa Bay here. Every time the Rays beat the Yankees, it increases the small chance the Orioles can hold on and win the division, but also increases the chance that TB slips ahead of us and takes the second wild card.
   21. DKDC Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4225658)
That's easy, root for the Rays.

Never root for the Yankees unless it's mathematically impossible to make the playoffs without a Yankee win.
   22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4225659)
I just saw a clip of the GWRBI - how the #### does Cano not dive for that ball?


YES had a good shot of him before the pitch and he wasn't ready for it. Then he seemed to be hobbled after the pitch and I'm not sure if that happened on the play or prior to it but that might have played into it.

FWIW I had the same reaction as you did when I saw it live.
   23. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4225660)
As I said in the Wild Card thread, I have no idea whether O's fans should be rooting for New York or Tampa Bay here. Every time the Rays beat the Yankees, it increases the small chance the Orioles can hold on and win the division, but also increases the chance that TB slips ahead of us and takes the second wild card.

It's irrelevant. Unless the Yanks do a 180 turnaround in the next six days, it'll take a miracle for them to still be in contention by the last week. Right now they're looking almost as bad as they did at the end of the 2000 regular season. If I were an O's fan, I'd be concentrating my rooting interest against the A's and the Angels, and have the team concentrate on keeping ahead of the Rays.
   24. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4225662)
YES had a good shot of him before the pitch and he wasn't ready for it. Then he seemed to be hobbled after the pitch and I'm not sure if that happened on the play or prior to it but that might have played into it.

FWIW I had the same reaction as you did when I saw it live.


So did I at first, although my disgust was somewhat tempered by the thought that on grass that would have been an easy out. #### that goddam artificial cow chow.
   25. escabeche Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4225665)
My brain is still confused about this issue, but DKDC speaks with the same voice as does my heart.
   26. rconn23 Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4225684)
The Yankees are a dead team walking. Just an old beat up squad that's looking for the end of the season to come.

Jeter's hot streak is over and he's in the deep freeze. Cano has been atrocious lately, just giving away at bats. Swisher is not good enough to carry a team. Granderson has regressed tremendously. The bottom of their lineup is awful. Suzuki is one of the worst hitters in the league.

That being said, if hacks like Joe Saunders and Chris Gimenez are going to contribute to your demise,it's going to be over soon anyway.
   27. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4225693)
You could just say that they can't get either the key hits or the key outs, and with the lineups they're putting out there now, it's not likely to change. The only thing that could possibly save them is for Pettitte to come back at his June level, and for Sabathia, Kuroda and Hughes to consistently pitch to their full potential, instead of blowing hot and cold with total unpredictability. The odds of that happening are between slim and none.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4225694)
The Orioles have had to replace FOUR fifths of their opening day rotation

Moe, Larry, Curly and Zeppo?
   29. DKDC Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4225696)
That being said, if hacks like Joe Saunders and Chris Gimenez are going to contribute to your demise,it's going to be over soon anyway.


Well, the Yanks will get a chance to expose Saunders for the hack he is this Saturday in Baltimore.
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4225697)
And that opening day rotation wasn't exactly the 1971 Orioles, consisting as it did of Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen (now the lone survivor), and three top prospects who have been massively disappointing anyway.
   31. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4225709)
Right now they're looking almost as bad as they did at the end of the 2000 regular season.


Agreed, and I thought of this too. But as a bit of perspective for those who may not know, they won the World Series that year.
   32. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 03, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4225749)
Right now they're looking almost as bad as they did at the end of the 2000 regular season.

Agreed, and I thought of this too. But as a bit of perspective for those who may not know, they won the World Series that year.


That was a great triumph, but it won't be much of a consolation if they finish 11-17 like that 2000 team did, since if they do that they'll be on the outside looking in. That 2000 team was also 9 games ahead on September 13th and didn't have half of their key players either on the DL or playing hurt.
   33. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 03, 2012 at 07:58 PM (#4225767)

Never root for the Yankees unless it's mathematically impossible to make the playoffs without a Yankee win.


I'm not sure even that's enough. During Game 162 of the 2011 season, I still couldn't root for them.

   34. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 03, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4225777)
Look at the Game Results recently.

I normally think that part of the bb-ref page is gimmicky and not illustrative, but this team hasn't scored 10 runs in nearly a month. They have serious trouble scoring runs.
   35. robinred Posted: September 03, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4225781)
The problem for the Yankees is that while they have an additional Wild Card to fall back on it is not the same as winning the division. Had the Sox survived game 162 last year they would have been in fundamentally the same situation the other playoff teams were and the September struggles would have been an inconvenience. This year, if the Yankees simply fail to win the division there is the real penalty of playing a one off, winner take all game.


Good point, and this is the reason that I like the second WC as compared to one WC (and no, I am not trying to start that up again
--I know that others disagree).
   36. escabeche Posted: September 03, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4225798)
And that opening day rotation wasn't exactly the 1971 Orioles, consisting as it did of Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen (now the lone survivor), and three top prospects who have been massively disappointing anyway.


OK, yes, the guys they had to replace needed replacing because they pitched badly, not because they got injured. The point is, there they were with only one guy, Chen, able to pitch above replacement level, and the team was somehow able to MacGyver together an effective rotation out of fomer prospects, non-prospects, and other teams' castoffs, and for that they deserve a lot of credit.
   37. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 03, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4225805)
Look at the Game Results recently.

I normally think that part of the bb-ref page is gimmicky and not illustrative, but this team hasn't scored 10 runs in nearly a month. They have serious trouble scoring runs.


And what's really spooky about it is that it wasn't that many weeks ago that they'd set a team record for consecutive games where they scored three or more runs. Of course losing A-Rod and then Teixeira may have had something to do with that sudden nosedive.
   38. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4225831)
Well, the Yanks will get a chance to expose Saunders for the hack he is this Saturday in Baltimore.

After Randy Wolf shut them down Sunday, I'm chalking every match up against a lefty as a loss until they win one. Maybe having the Rod back will help, but they are downright helpless against southpaws these days.
   39. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4225838)
Suzuki is one of the worst hitters in the league.

This belongs in the water is wet, sun rises in the east category of absolute obviousness.

Funny how an aging, slap hitting singles hitter isn't helping to power along the offense.

As a Red Sox fan I really want to relish this swoon by NY, however I can sympathise with your pain. Next year you can try the "blow up the team" GM plan that the Sox have going and see how that works for NY.
   40. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4225842)
Thanks mate. Anyone you want directly over the C4?
   41. Loren F. Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4225845)
This is the worst good Yankees team since the '80s.
   42. Dale Sams Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4225850)
It's over?
   43. bobm Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4225868)
The batting has gotten quite ugly.

                                                        
Split           GS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2012 Totals    133 .262 .333 .453 .786  .290   100   116
Last 7 days      5 .184 .265 .289 .554  .223    43    52
Last 14 days    11 .207 .278 .349 .627  .241    60    74
Last 28 days    25 .256 .322 .431 .753  .282    92   108


The pitching seems to have worsened a little in the last week.

                                                          
Split          SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2012 Totals     3.06 .256 .313 .420 .733  .302   100   101
Last 7 days     2.06 .259 .335 .424 .759  .281   108   107
Last 14 days    2.93 .245 .311 .410 .721  .275    97   100
Last 28 days    3.50 .258 .311 .414 .725  .297    98   100


                                                      
Split           W  L W-L%  ERA     IP  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
2012 Totals    76 57 .571 3.84 1183.0 1.279  8.2  3.06
Last 7 days     2  3 .400 4.40   45.0 1.356  7.0  2.06
Last 14 days    4  7 .364 4.04   98.0 1.224  7.8  2.93
Last 28 days   13 12 .520 4.19  221.0 1.244  7.7  3.50
   44. escabeche Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4225888)
If anything, that makes it look like the Yankees have had a couple of bad BAbip weeks in a row and shouldn't be expected to have persistent problems scoring runs.
   45. bobm Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4225902)
[44] BAbip is down, but so is home run frequency, and the Yankees have scored a lot of runs on home runs this year.

                       
Split            PA  HR PA/HR
2012 Totals    5062 202. 25.1
Last 7 days     171   3. 57.0
Last 14 days    399  12. 33.3
Last 28 days    945  34. 27.8


EDIT: the smaller SLG-BA differences above also point to this issue.
   46. rlc Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:48 AM (#4225927)
the Yankees have scored a lot of runs on home runs this year


Highest percentage of total runs scored on homers in MLB. I think I heard someone say it was an historically high percentage, but I have no idea how to look that up on B-R.
   47. bobm Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:13 AM (#4225947)
[46] Their percentage of runs is close to historically high.

I could not find a leaderboard for most home runs by a team in a single season, but below is the set of single season club records for home runs, sorted by % of runs batted in by a home run, and the 2012 Yankee season to date.

                                HR TOT TOT % RBI
             Year and Team  HR RBI RBI   R BY HR
    2010 Toronto Blue Jays 257 401 732 750 55%

   2012 Yankees thru 133 G 202 316 616 633 51%

        2005 Texas Rangers 260 413 834 854 50% 
    1996 Oakland Athletics 243 399 823 847 48%
      1963 Minnesota Twins 225 346 722 753 48%
  2000 St. Louis Cardinals 235 403 841 875 48%
         2004 Chicago Cubs 235 360 755 773 48%
    2007 Milwaukee Brewers 231 364 774 790 47%
2009 Philadelphia Phillies 224 370 788 809 47%
    2004 Chicago White Sox 242 384 823 849 47%
      2005 Cincinnati Reds 222 364 784 806 46%
     1997 Seattle Mariners 264 412 890 912 46%
    1996 Baltimore Orioles 257 419 914 941 46%
  2000 Los Angeles Dodgers 211 344 756 785 46%
 2001 San Francisco Giants 235 349 775 793 45%
      2008 Florida Marlins 208 330 741 756 45%
       2000 Anaheim Angels 236 368 837 852 44%
     2009 New York Yankees 244 375 881 909 43%
       1987 Detroit Tigers 225 357 840 872 43%
       2000 Houston Astros 249 382 900 926 42%
     1970 San Diego Padres 172 263 629 658 42%
 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks 216 360 865 892 42%
     1997 Colorado Rockies 239 360 869 903 41%
       2003 Atlanta Braves 235 360 872 897 41%
        2006 New York Mets 200 325 800 826 41%
       2000 Montreal Expos 178 286 705 730 41%
    2000 Cleveland Indians 221 352 889 929 40%
 2009 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 199 297 765 783 39%
       2003 Boston Red Sox 238 356 932 954 38%
   1987 Kansas City Royals 168 258 677 697 38%
   1999 Pittsburgh Pirates 171 263 735 766 36%


Sources: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_hr7.shtml and BR PI Event Finder

At the current season HR/G rate, 2012 would be the highest team season home run count for the Yankees at 246.

Below is the 2012 season compared with the top 5 (by team HR) historical Yankee seasons, sorted by runs batted in on a home run:

                                  HR TOT TOT % RBI
          Year and Team       HR RBI RBI   R BY HR
2012 Yankees thru 133 G      202 316 616 633 51%

  1961 New York Yankees      240 385 781 816 49%
  2005 New York Yankees      229 390 847 880 46%
  2004 New York Yankees      242 389 863 891 45%
  2003 New York Yankees      230 367 845 866 43%
  2009 New York Yankees      244 360 865 892 42%


Sources: http://newyork.sbnation.com/new-york-yankees/2012/7/17/3163107/the-top-5-yankees-team-single-season-home-runs-robinson-cano-alex-rodriguez-mark-teixeira-babe-ruth and and BR PI Event Finder

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