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Monday, March 20, 2017

Kiermaier extension: Behind the thought process that goes into long-term deals | Tampa Bay Times

All of which allowed starter Jake Odorizzi to feel good about turning down a deal two offseasons ago that would have guaranteed him close to $30 million over six years and could have exceeded $50 million over eight.

“There’s pros and cons, and you’re committed to this for whatever it is, six, seven, eight years,” Odorizzi said. “Sometimes it boils down to, and I hate to say it, but the dollar amount. We all know the money in this game and the value of players and what your value is. And sometimes it just doesn’t match up. That’s just the circumstances.

“It’s a tough decision, really. It’s tough to say no to that large amount of money that a lot of people will never see. It’s something that if you say no to, you can’t think about it. We had talks and we didn’t agree. I completely forgot about it because you can’t think about the what-ifs of it from outing to outing, like if I’m not doing well, like, ‘Oh, man, what if I would have taken the deal and eased my mind, could I be pitching better now? Is this weighing on me?’ But for me it was easy.”

So maybe it is easy, after all.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 20, 2017 at 06:32 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: kevin kiermaier, rays

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   1. Cargo Cultist Posted: March 20, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5419881)
Long term deals for young players make far more sense for teams than long term deals for aging players.
   2. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: March 20, 2017 at 12:27 PM (#5419891)
Long term deals for young players make far more sense for teams than long term deals for aging players.

Long term deals for young players make far more sense for players who when drafted didn't receive handsome signing bonuses.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 20, 2017 at 12:32 PM (#5419900)
Long term deals for young players make far more sense for players who when drafted didn't receive handsome signing bonuses.

And for players who aren't going to be well compensated in arbitration, or FA.

No arbitrator or team will pay Kiermaier the way WAR views him. Nobody really believe he's +35 runs/150 on defense.
   4. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: March 20, 2017 at 07:12 PM (#5420261)
Nobody really believe he's +35 runs/150 on defense.
Well, he might.

* UZR/150 has him at 34.5/150 (which is probably what you're citing)
* By DRS, it looks like he saves about 1/3 more runs than that
* The fancy new Statcast stats show he made 43 more plays over the past 2 seasons than the average fielder (really, about 1 2/3 seasons playing time). Given men on base, I could see that being worth 30 runs per season.
   5. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: March 20, 2017 at 07:16 PM (#5420265)
IMO, a pitcher who is still a ways from free agency is batshit insane to turn down 30 million dollars. A pitcher's arm can go anytime, and stay gone. But when you're young, you feel indestructible right up until the moment you learn the hard way that you're not; such is life.

Generally I lean hard toward the concept that if you're offering me a deal, then you expect it to be +EV for you and therefore -EV for me, and I'm disinclined to take it. But the relationship between a pitcher and a team is much like the relationship between an individual and an insurance company: being much more capitalized, the team has enormously more tolerance for risk, and is buying risk from the pitcher. The downside risk for the Rays is that the pitcher blows his arm out soon after signing the contract and their already small payroll is further constricted for a few years. The downside risk for Odorizzi is that three years from now (well, three years from two years ago in his actual case, but you get the point), he has to get a real job and work that real job for the rest of his life.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 20, 2017 at 07:58 PM (#5420293)
Well, he might.

The market didn't price Heyward liked they believed he was +25-30 on D.

Given men on base, I could see that being worth 30 runs per season.

You don't get credit for situation in the advanced metrics, just like a hitter doesn't get any more credit for a grand slam.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: March 20, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5420306)
The fancy new Statcast stats show he made 43 more plays over the past 2 seasons than the average fielder (really, about 1 2/3 seasons playing time). Given men on base, I could see that being worth 30 runs per season.


The linear weights value of an average homerun is (or was) around 1.4 runs, and the value of an out -.3 or so. Keirmaier isn't turning homeruns into outs (at least, not often), he's turning singles and doubles into outs, which should give him a run value of perhaps 1 run per extra play.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: March 20, 2017 at 08:36 PM (#5420312)
With that said, defensive numbers still continue to confound me. Probably my fault. But let's look at McCutchen. In 2015 he was -6 runs by UZR, in 2016, -23. Huge difference. But look at the numbers.

Balls in Zone
2015: 275
2016: 274

Ok, same number of opportunities.

Plays:

2015: 251
2016: 248

Tiny tiny bit worse.

Out of Zone plays made:

2015: 50
2016: 69

Markedly better!

So I don't get it, why are his overall numbers so much worse?
   9. Walt Davis Posted: March 20, 2017 at 10:55 PM (#5420363)
So I don't get it, why are his overall numbers so much worse?

Good question. I suppose it's possible that the average CF took a big step up in 2016 but that seems unlikely. FWIW, his Inside Edge numbers also seem to suggest he was as good or better in 2016 -- 3-4 more unlikely catches, 6 more even (although he had 0 such opportunities in 2015?), 5 fewer likely catches, 1 fewer routine. Statcast catch probability also puts him at pretty much equal -- within rounding of the continuity correction I think.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 21, 2017 at 08:59 AM (#5420441)
So I don't get it, why are his overall numbers so much worse?

The only thing left is that he faced an easier set of chances in 2016, right?
   11. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: March 21, 2017 at 11:42 AM (#5420561)
Given men on base, I could see that being worth 30 runs per season.

You don't get credit for situation in the advanced metrics, just like a hitter doesn't get any more credit for a grand slam.
Sure you do. Look at a linear weights chart. Which leads to...
Keirmaier isn't turning homeruns into outs (at least, not often), he's turning singles and doubles into outs, which should give him a run value of perhaps 1 run per extra play.
According to the linked chart, singles are worth .7 runs, doubles 1.0, triples 1.27. So 1 run per extra play probably is the proper credit.
The market didn't price Heyward liked they believed he was +25-30 on D.
Hey, the market isn't perfect and the Cubs got a deal (or thought they were before he turned into a pumpkin at the plate).
   12. Russ Posted: March 21, 2017 at 08:14 PM (#5420888)
The only thing left is that he faced an easier set of chances in 2016, right?


Interesting. Maybe Polanco and Marte were carving out his tougher chances? Did the Pirates shift differently in 2015 vs 2016 in the OF?
   13. PreservedFish Posted: March 21, 2017 at 08:53 PM (#5420901)
The only thing left is that he faced an easier set of chances in 2016, right?


The change in out of zone plays should be giving McCutchen a +10 bump or something. It's a tall order to reel that +10 back and further deduct 15 runs, all just on the distribution of in-zone plays.

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