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Sunday, October 02, 2011

Klaassen: Should Arizona Have Pitched Around Fielder?

Let’s let Kapitan Kirk Gibson answer that…”“I left him in; it was a bad decision on my part, obviously,”

This is not to say that these are the only considerations to take into account. Perhaps Arizona manager Kirk Gibson or his coaches could have seen something in Kennedy at that point that would have indicated he should be pulled (I don’t know). Maybe Gibson would have been better served to bring in an appropriate lefty-killing reliever to get Fielder out.

It is easy to speak with the benefit of hindsight — after all, Fielder did hit a home run, a play that was the third-greatest contribution to the Brewers’ victory. But it simply is not the case that Fielder was likely to hit a home run off of Kennedy, or even get on-base. Even the best hitters make outs in 60 percent of their plate appearances, and Kennedy is a better-than-average pitcher. I seriously doubt people would have even mentioned Kennedy pitching to Fielder if the plate appearance had ended in a lazy fly to left field, or even a walk followed by a Weeks ground out to end the innings. The ratio of Fielder’s versus Weeks’ projected wOBAs versus right-handed pitchers is close enough that having Kennedy intentionally walk or pitch around Fielder would have been understandable. However, on the basis of the numbers, there was nothing wrong with letting Kennedy pitch to Fielder in that situation.

 

Repoz Posted: October 02, 2011 at 12:14 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: arizona, brewers, history, projections, sabermetrics

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   1. AROM Posted: October 02, 2011 at 03:20 PM (#3948396)
The questionable play of the day for me was letting Lohse pitch to Howard. You've already gotten 5 1/3 innings out of Lohse, I don't see how you can expect too much more. With 2 on, a 2 run lead, and a dangerous power hitter who can't hit lefties it was time to go to the pen. I never thought I'd see that from LaRussa, who practically invented the loogy.
   2. toratoratora Posted: October 02, 2011 at 03:40 PM (#3948404)
""[Gossage] doesn't respect you! He thinks you
can't hit him! He don't want to to walk you!"

Sparky yelling at Kirk Gibson before Gibson hit a World Series homer off of San Diego reliever Goose Gossage."
   3. The District Attorney Posted: October 02, 2011 at 03:52 PM (#3948414)
The questionable play of the day for me was letting Lohse pitch to Howard.
How about letting Lohse pitch, period? Couldn't Edwin Jackson have started?

As for "pitching around", I think it's even lamer than the IBB, if that's possible. "Pitch to him, but don't give him anything hit" is a ridiculous instruction to give a pitcher, IMHO. If you're gonna walk the guy, walk the guy. If it were earlier in the game, the IBB would probably be the move. But, given that it was time for Kennedy to come out anyway, I would have gone to the lefty reliever to face Fielder. Given that Joe Paterson is a nobody, it'd also be acceptable to have Kennedy IBB Fielder and then bring in a righty. (I really do wonder, though, why the heck Gibby had Paterson warming.)
   4. Ron J Posted: October 02, 2011 at 05:06 PM (#3948475)
#3 The pitch around is almost certainly a waste of everybody's time with a very disciplined hitter at the plate. But generally speaking, if you don't fear the walk it ought to be at least possible that you can persuade the hitter to get himself out on a pitch he simply won't be able to hit hard.
   5. What did Billy Ripken have against Elroy Face? Posted: October 02, 2011 at 05:22 PM (#3948488)
Can you even pitch around Fielder? Wouldn't his gravitational pull bring the ball back in?
   6. Greg (U)K Posted: October 02, 2011 at 05:32 PM (#3948492)
The questionable play of the day for me was letting Lohse pitch to Howard. You've already gotten 5 1/3 innings out of Lohse, I don't see how you can expect too much more. With 2 on, a 2 run lead, and a dangerous power hitter who can't hit lefties it was time to go to the pen. I never thought I'd see that from LaRussa, who practically invented the loogy.

I recall watching that at bat and it seemed like he threw 18 changeups in a row. I thought, seems strange to show a guy the same changeup over and over again. Doesn't that defeat the point of the pitch? Well as long as he keeps it down I guess it's ok...
   7. Ron J Posted: October 02, 2011 at 05:52 PM (#3948506)
#6 I remember Ross Grimsley saying something like, every time they start to adjust to my change I just slow it down. This was after he'd lost most of his stuff so that his fastball looked like other pitcher's change.

Worked for a while -- almost nobody threw that slow -- but eventually the hitters adjusted.
   8. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 02, 2011 at 05:57 PM (#3948512)
Doug Jones perfected slow. He would change leagues to make his stuff look new again

But eventually he would get lit up

And then he was done
   9. Walt Davis Posted: October 02, 2011 at 06:53 PM (#3948542)
It's true the Lohse--Howard matchup didn't register with me the way Kennedy-Fielder did. I think that's because I was saying "why would you pitch Lohse here" for the entire game to that point that the extra dumbness of having him pitch to Howard didn't register. :-)

But it simply is not the case that Fielder was likely to hit a home run off of Kennedy, or even get on-base.

All true, but baseball is a game of small differences and, in the playoffs, you have little choice but to do everything you can to push the odds a bit in your direction.

And the differences here aren't that small. Fielder career has a 988 OPS vs RHP and 799 vs LHP -- 70 points of OBP and 119 of SLG. (Kennedy to this point has been, if anything, a little tougher on lefties.) Sure, that's still only 7% of the time, 7 times on based turned into 7 outs per 100 PA resulting in, what, only 5-6 fewer runs. Absolutely meaningless in the small sample of one PA to reduce the Brewers run expectancy by .05.

But what else are you going to do? This is why the playoffs are a crapshoot. Yep, 93 times out of 100, it doesn't matter who pitches to Fielder. But you've got to worry about whether this is one of those other 7.

Now, whether Joe Paterson is the guy I want in that situation I can't tell you although he has been effective against LHB (a whopping 78 PA!).
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 03, 2011 at 03:19 AM (#3949182)
I thought Kennedy was starting to lose his command a bit too before Fielder came up. I can't imagine he wanted to put it down and in for a lefty power hitter.

Hindsight is 20/20, but at the time, I thought it was a bit surprising they left Kennedy in there.

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