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Saturday, May 24, 2014

Klapisch: A-Rod’s Yankees return inevitable

Wouldn’t you return if you were only 1 career Out Made behind Barry Bonds?!

Given his need for attention and the narrative friends say he’s already scripted – disgraced PED-user rises from the ashes to win over the fans – news of A-Rod’s homecoming isn’t entirely unexpected. What’s more surprising, though, is ownership’s willingness to let Rodriguez walk through the open door.

The whole notion of buying out the remainder of A-Rod’s contract seems dead for now. One major league official familiar with the Yankees’ thinking said, “Unless [the Steinbrenner family] offers A-Rod 100 cents on the dollar, why would he walk away?”

Indeed, no one has convinced Hal Steinbrenner to take even the slightest loss on the $60-plus million Rodriguez is still owed through 2017. The family has decided A-Rod will have to earn his every last dollar, even if it’ll mean being subjected to public ridicule.

That, apparently, doesn’t matter to Rodriguez. A friend who speaks to the slugger on a regular basis said he can’t be swayed into thinking the landscape will be too toxic. “If [Ryan] Braun could handle [negative public opinion], Alex thinks he can, too.”

In other words, the humiliation of the Biogenesis scandal will not factor in A-Rod’s preparation for next season. He’s processed it, rationalized it and moved on. Forget that he accepted the longest and most severe PED-related punishment in baseball history, and that he was caught lying about his association with Anthony Bosch. And it hasn’t dented Rodriguez’s determination, either, that his chances for the Hall of Fame have been crushed into fine powder.

Rodriguez has instead found a way to co-exist with his darker angels, not to mention the stain on his legacy. But here’s the question talent evaluators have been asking since last summer – one that directly impacts the Yankees’ financial liability.

Repoz Posted: May 24, 2014 at 08:17 AM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. joeysdadjoe Posted: May 24, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4712529)
Of course he is coming back and this is a stupid acticle. The guy has a 30 million salary and he likes baseball. Could you imagine him in Tampa for 500k with the Yanks on the hook for the rest?
   2. Captain Supporter Posted: May 24, 2014 at 12:33 PM (#4712593)
Unfortunately for A-fraud, the Yankees seem to have at least possibly found a better third basemen. While I know that people will say that Solarte can be moved to second base next year (assuming he continues to resemble the player he has been for the past two months), why would you want to do that. The Yankees may indeed have to pay Rodriquez off, but I can't imagine that they would want him, his ego, and the inevitable media army that will follow him around to screw the team up next year. Not to mention that is very doubtful at best that he can play without heavy doses of illegal substances, and that baseball will probably have investigators following him around day and night. It would be best for all concerned for the Yankees to get rid of him any way they can.
   3. John Reynard Posted: May 24, 2014 at 01:01 PM (#4712606)
The obvious reason to come back next year is because the Yankees will have an open spot at SS and have shown they'll put up with subpar defense from the position. So Solarte plays 3B and ARod plays SS, right?

Bonus for the Yankees who like to make true Yankees look better is Jeter's defense even this year will look splendid by comparison.
   4. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 24, 2014 at 01:02 PM (#4712607)
They should play him at short when he gets back.
   5. base ball chick Posted: May 24, 2014 at 01:58 PM (#4712631)
do people REALLY think that hank steinbrenner is gonna hand arod 60 mill to not show up?
cmon
all the media all over the place will be great - all publicity is good publicity. and arid will always be a wonderful scapegoat to explain any losing.

besides, taking a year off to heal up might have been really good for him. i know lots of folks now wanting to believe that he would be matt bush without shooting up, but that is just silly
   6. tfbg9 Posted: May 24, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4712638)
"It would be best for all concerned for the Yankees to get rid of him any way they can."

What are you suggesting, CS?
   7. MikeTorrez Posted: May 24, 2014 at 02:08 PM (#4712640)
I think it's pretty obvious that CS is suggesting ARod should be put down. Are centaurs usually put out to pasture?
   8. vortex of dissipation Posted: May 24, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4712642)
Considering how Brian Cashman handled the Kei Igawa situation, Alex may well wonder exactly where he'll be playing next season...
   9. base ball chick Posted: May 24, 2014 at 02:15 PM (#4712644)
can't send arod to AAA without his permission, unlike kei igawa. cmon, you know that
   10. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 24, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4712688)
Given his need for attention and the narrative friends say he’s already scripted – disgraced PED-user rises from the ashes to win over the fans – news of A-Rod’s homecoming isn’t entirely unexpected.


Hilarious. So it can't be that he wants to play major league baseball. It has to be that he has a "need for attention" and is pursuing a "narrative."

What’s more surprising, though, is ownership’s willingness to let Rodriguez walk through the open door.


Surprising to people not capable of logical thinking, it seems.

The whole notion of buying out the remainder of A-Rod’s contract seems dead for now. One major league official familiar with the Yankees’ thinking said, “Unless [the Steinbrenner family] offers A-Rod 100 cents on the dollar, why would he walk away?”


Duh. Welcome to the party, Bob Klapisch.

And the beauty about them "offering him" 100 cents on the dollar to walk away is that they'd be guaranteed an acceptance: it's calling "releasing him."

But of course, we heard from the Daily News that he was ready to walk away and leave tens of millions on the table until some girl talked him out of it and encouraged him to defend himself instead. Sure he was.
   11. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 24, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4712702)
Unfortunately for A-fraud, the Yankees seem to have at least possibly found a better third basemen.


The idea that Solarte can maintain a 140 OPS+ seems fantastical. Whose radar was Solarte on coming into the year? Baseball Prospectus is good at what they do, and they found no room for him in their print annual, not in their main Yankees section, not in their throwaway comments following the main section about fringe players on the team, not in their top 101 prospects list. Coming into the year they projected him at 258/296/377.

He was old for AA and AAA over the past three years and his overall performance there was mediocre. What are the odds he is playing at his true ability level, or close to it, rather than simply having the best seven weeks of his life?
   12. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: May 24, 2014 at 03:35 PM (#4712732)
He was old for AA and AAA over the past three years and his overall performance there was mediocre. What are the odds he is playing at his true ability level, or close to it, rather than simply having the best seven weeks of his life?

Your dismissing the obvious explanation here. Solarte inherited ARod's old locker... including contents.
   13. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: May 24, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4712734)
"It would be best for all concerned for the Yankees to get rid of him any way they can."

What are you suggesting, CS?

I think he is suggesting the Steinbrenner's arrange for ARod to wake up next to a horse's head one day... no wait, that one doesn't work.
   14. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 24, 2014 at 03:44 PM (#4712743)
BTW, do Yankees fans realize yet that Soriano last year, like Ichiro the year before, was playing over his head for them? Soriano has a .266 OBP.
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 24, 2014 at 04:53 PM (#4712831)
This Solarte phenomenon is amazing. He's played in almost every Yanks game and started 2/3 of them. As a 26-year-old with NO stints in MLB before.

It reminds me of the Garrrett Jones phenomenon with the Pirates, in that he probably wasn't among the 50 players at spring training you would have written a profile of, and a month later he's a freakin' cornerstone of the immediate future. (GJ had been in the majors briefly though)
   16. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 24, 2014 at 05:13 PM (#4712857)
It's good to know that if Bob Klapisch were running the Yankees he would protect NY and all of MLB from seeing Alex Rodriguez disgrace the noble pinstripes again! What are a few tens or scores of millions of dollars compared to protecting the legacy of Jim Leyritz, Chad Curtis, Luis Polonia, Mel Hall....

Yes, we get it. Unlike Bob Klapisch, Alex Rodriguez is a flawed human being. Also unlike Bob Klapisch, Hal & Hank Steinbrenner owe Alex Rodriguez oodles and oodles of money. The probability is that they will want to get some value for that money, if there is any value left. Undeniably mercenary of them. Doubtless unlike Bob Klapisch.
   17. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: May 24, 2014 at 05:50 PM (#4712890)
do people REALLY think that hank steinbrenner is gonna hand arod 60 mill to not show up?


*Hank* Steinbrenner will have nothing to do with decision ...

Seriously, Hal is Michael and Hank is Fredo, and that has been evidently clear for years (well, since the Arod decision, actually) ...
   18. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 24, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4712897)
Seriously, Hal is Michael and Hank is Fredo, and that has been evidently clear for years (well, since the Arod decision, actually) ...

so Hank broke Hal's heart?
   19. Captain Supporter Posted: May 24, 2014 at 06:19 PM (#4712899)
There is no value left folks. He is old and brittle and can't play without drugs. Trying to milk some value from the carcass would be futile. If he can somehow convince some other team to let him play, perhaps he can work out a deal with the Yankees for his release. Otherwise the Yankees would be wise to admit their mistake and pay him off.
   20. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: May 24, 2014 at 06:20 PM (#4712901)
so Hank broke Hal's heart?


Well, as far as I can tell, Hank's been dumped in Lake Tahoe, so ... yes.
   21. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 24, 2014 at 06:22 PM (#4712903)
There is no value left folks. He is old and brittle and can't play without drugs. Trying to milk some value from the carcass would be futile. If he can somehow convince some other team to let him play, perhaps he can work out a deal with the Yankees for his release. Otherwise the Yankees would be wise to admit their mistake and pay him off.


Haven't we talked enough about Jeter?
   22. Walt Davis Posted: May 24, 2014 at 06:22 PM (#4712904)
On the more serious side ... ARod's obvious position would be DH.

Although he's bounced back the last couple of years, Soriano is off to a bad start again this year. I wonder if the Yanks will grab Kendrys Morales for DH once the draft pick disappears.
   23. Nasty Nate Posted: May 24, 2014 at 07:13 PM (#4712912)
, perhaps he can work out a deal with the Yankees for his release. Otherwise the Yankees would be wise to admit their mistake and pay him off.


What leverage do the Yankees have?

"Take less money and we will release you or else ... we will release you and you get all your money"
   24. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 24, 2014 at 07:19 PM (#4712914)
The Yankees may indeed have to pay Rodriquez off, but I can't imagine that they would want him, his ego, and the inevitable media army that will follow him around to screw the team up next year. Not to mention that is very doubtful at best that he can play without heavy doses of illegal substances, and that baseball will probably have investigators following him around day and night.

That's the Yankees' worst fear: that investigators might catch their $60 million broken-down has-been using drugs in 2015.
   25. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 24, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4712915)
There is no reason to single out one player for penalties beyond what MLB imposed, so that's not happening. It certainly won't cost the Yankees anything to find out if A-Rod can still play, and they're going to do so.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: May 25, 2014 at 02:55 AM (#4713051)
If I were the Yankees, I'd consider just releasing him. I know it doesn't make financial sense but I wouldn't blame them for thinking it's just time to take their medicine and move on. It's a bit like deciding whether it's worth the hassle to deal with the ex just to get back those dozen DVDs you left behind. Given ARod 2015 and beyond is more likely to be "Dude, where's my car?" than he is to be "Hangover" much less "The Big Leboswki" ...
   27. bjhanke Posted: May 25, 2014 at 06:33 AM (#4713061)
There is actually one player who might actually serve as a comp for what ARod might do when he comes back; that is, this player's career might give you a decent prediction as to how much ARod will lose in playing quality from the year off (I assume he will lose nothing from drugs, because I don't think he ever got anything from them in the first place, except suspended).

It's Home Run Baker. Baker, for two different reasons, neither of which was an injury, just took off two full seasons during his career. Baker was an ARod class player, which means he actually qualifies for the very small group that is actually useful for comparisons. You can't just go with Baker's second year off, although the age is closer to ARod's now, because ARod is only losing the one. But a look at how much Baker lost in both of his "vacations", and averaging the two losses, might be the closest estimate we can get in advance.

I would not release ARod for at least one year, unless he just obviously has nothing left by the All-Star break. If he plays well, the upside is huge. He'll lose some of the steroid stigma, because he will be playing well without them. He'll become a curiosity who fans want to see before he finally retires. And if he actually has any reasonable percentage left in the tank of what he used to have, he can help you win games if he has to play DH. ARod can lose a LOT before he becomes useless. And he can play emergency extra-inning SS and 3B. That is, the gamble of playing him does have a serious upside. I have no idea what the odds are, but at least, if you win you win something worth having. And if you lose, and ARod isn't a MLB player any more - well, you can ALWAYS release him mid-season. Low cost. HIgh upside. Low downside. I'll take that gamble. - Brock Hanke
   28. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: May 25, 2014 at 09:47 AM (#4713082)
Given ARod 2015 and beyond is more likely to be "Dude, where's my car?" than he is to be "Hangover" much less "The Big Leboswki" ...


Surely Phar Lap, National Velvet, Seabiscuit & Secretariat are far more apt comparisons.
   29. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 25, 2014 at 09:59 AM (#4713084)
Unfortunately for A-fraud


. . . and one more dumbass just made my ignore list. Congrats, Jeter Douche. It's been a long time coming.
   30. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 25, 2014 at 10:20 AM (#4713091)
If I were the Yankees, I'd consider just releasing him. I know it doesn't make financial sense but I wouldn't blame them for thinking it's just time to take their medicine and move on. It's a bit like deciding whether it's worth the hassle to deal with the ex just to get back those dozen DVDs you left behind. Given ARod 2015 and beyond is more likely to be "Dude, where's my car?" than he is to be "Hangover" much less "The Big Leboswki" ...


Even if they don't want him around anymore, the difference is that if he gets himself into trouble again -- and we know the league is obsessed about investigating him and banning him -- they may not have to pay him at all.
   31. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: May 25, 2014 at 01:43 PM (#4713128)
This Solarte phenomenon is amazing. He's played in almost every Yanks game and started 2/3 of them. As a 26-year-old with NO stints in MLB before.


26-year-old rookies, by WAR (Solarte is 47th, so far).
   32. Walt Davis Posted: May 25, 2014 at 06:26 PM (#4713217)
I know we're in a new "deadball" era but perhaps somebody a bit more contemporary than Home Run Baker would be a better comp. :-)

From 33-35, Winfield was about the same with the bat as ARod. At 36 he had a huge season (159 OPS+, 2nd best of his career) then he missed all of his age 37 season.

He was a good hitter from 38-40 -- 127 OPS+, certainly worth DHing if you still owed him $60 M. His already declining defense seems to have gone to hell and it took the Jays to have the sense to DH him at 40. He didn't do anything worthwhile after 40 but so what?

Manny was still a productive hitter at 38 then took his drug/retirement year and hasn't been able to make his way back. Galarraga was good from 35-37, missed all of 38 for cancer, was solid at 39, OK at 40, good at 42. The older Mike Cameron is not necessarily a bad comp for the older ARod (lousy comp for younger ARod), he missed most of age 37 due to injury and stunk at 38 and was done.

Double selection bias -- the pool of guys who missed a year in their late 30s but came back to play doesn't include the guys who didn't come back and I was just looking at a list and going by memory. So lost in this is somebody like Griffey who kept taking the field but just wasn't good anymore as the injuries caught up to him and a guy like Delgado who never came back. On the other hand, most of these guys were missing time due to injury unlike ARod and Manny.

Part of ARod's challenge of course is that he missed most of 2013 as well and didn't seem real healthy at the end of it. He hasn't been able to stay on the field for a while. At 39, I don't think you can expect more than maybe 100 starts out of him anyway.
   33. baxter Posted: May 25, 2014 at 06:50 PM (#4713233)
The time off may help his body to heal a bit.

Father time always wins in the end, but elite athletes amaze me how they can last and bounce back (sometimes). I may have missed recent threads on Beckett (no hitter today) and Tim Hudson. How many people thought Hudson was through after the injury last year? Beckett had the numbness in his hand. Yet, here they are.

Those 100 starts of Arod's may be in the field. He may DH another 50. Time will tell.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: May 25, 2014 at 08:59 PM (#4713272)
I don't find Beckett particularly surprising at all. He was still getting guys to miss bats and pitchers are just damned strange anyway. Pretty much the same with Hudson really although I'd expect him to be more league average than good and he can fall off a cliff at any moment. Hudson was of course never as good as Maddux in his prime but he's always reminded me of him a bit and he's probably a good comp for Maddux in his late 30s ... Maddux held on in the 95-110 ERA+ range for quite a while.

That's not to say I'd have offered Hudson that contract necessarily, seems a bit risky to me.

Both are also way outperforming their FIP -- Hudson by 1 run, Beckett by 1.4 runs. Beckett's FIP (before today) is pretty much in line with what it's been for the last 4-5 years ... Hudson's is definitely better than it's been but his FIP translates to "just" a 110 ERA+.

I'm not convinced anybody really knows how to project pitchers, at least in the short term. In the long term, they all get hurt. Maybe it's just that there are so many ways a pitcher can be at least reasonably successful. Tanana's always a great example -- a great pitcher in his youth, K'ing 8-9 guys back when that meant something. Then he blew out his arm and came back K'ing only about 5.5/9 but added over 2700 IP of 100 ERA+. That's like a hitter being Dunn in his youth and Ichiro in his 30s -- we just don't see that with hitters and we seem to see it a lot with pitchers. Then you get the pitchers that are Wily Mo Pena in their 20s then Pujols in their 30s (the Unit) -- I suppose guys like Ortiz or Edgar are kinda like that.
   35. Moeball Posted: May 26, 2014 at 02:37 PM (#4713477)
If he plays well, the upside is huge. He'll lose some of the steroid stigma, because he will be playing well without them.


Don't quite agree, Brock. Many people now believe that without steroids, A-Rod never would have even made it to the major leagues. If he plays well, this segment of the population (a rather large segment, I might add) will just automatically believe he's using. Didn't say it's a rational belief, just said that a very substantial portion of the population holds it.

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