Klapisch: How long can Lincecum shoulder load?

Or as Mrs.“The Schemestress” Drucci once said…“We sure gave the Verducci Effect a swell sendoff!”.

Lincecum’s mechanics are so far acting as a buffer against injury; to say the Giants’ right-hander uses his entire body to deliver the ball is like saying Bill Gates has a checking account. Lincecum’s pitching stride reaches 7.5 feet, or roughly 129 percent of his height. The average stride length for a pitcher is 77 to 87 percent of his height.

That may explain why Lincecum was able to dodge the dreaded “Verducci Effect” in 2009. The theory, devised by Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, suggested that a pitcher under 25 risks injury by increasing his workload by more than 30 innings from one year to the next.

Lincecum added 81.1 innings between 2007 and 2008, which means the Verducci Effect should’ve nailed him in ’09. But it didn’t. Lincecum leads the majors in ERA, batting average against (.214), winning percentage (.733) and strikeouts over the past two seasons.

But that’s not to say Lincecum can forever rely on pure velocity, as he’s already weaning off his fastball. In 2007, two out of every three pitches Lincecum threw were four-seam heat; the percentage declined to 55.8 percent last year. Conversely, his dependence on change-ups increased from 13.4 percent in ’07 to 21.4 percent in ’09.