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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Klapisch: MLB has caught up with Billy Beane

And something else has caught up to Ben Sheets. Damn.

It’s been an awakening of sorts for Beane, whose market-IQ was once the exception. Now it’s the norm. Every club is run by geniuses and numbers-geeks, all of whom are obsessed with holding down payroll.

“There’s definitely a lot of bright people running the game and they’ve all been impacted by the economy,” Beane said by telephone the other day. “Some of the trades that were made 10-12 years ago could never happen now. That’s because teams value players in the same way. There’s much more efficiency (among general managers) than before.”

...One rival GM who once admitted he dreaded competing against Beane, now says he feels “sorry” for the forefather of the Money Ball era, who “has to keep turning over his team every two years.”

Collect the talent, develop it, export it. Repeat cycle. That’s the business plan Beane has to live with. You wouldn’t blame him for feeling burned out by the constant money-saving churn.

 

Repoz Posted: July 28, 2010 at 10:48 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, sabermetrics

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   1. Rich Posted: July 28, 2010 at 11:34 PM (#3602073)
I would still like to see what Beane could accomplish with a top five payroll.
   2. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 29, 2010 at 12:32 AM (#3602105)
He never should have caused this recession
   3. thread killer Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3602121)
That Sheets deal worked out well.
   4. Flynn Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3602122)
Beane had his chance and he walked away from it. Hey, he's gotten himself a stake in the team and he wanted to be near his daughter. But that may have been it.
   5. Flynn Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3602123)
   6. Dash Carlyle Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:24 AM (#3602136)
Every club is run by geniuses and numbers-geeks, all of whom are obsessed with holding down payroll.

That describes the Cubs to a tee.
   7. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:34 AM (#3602144)
Never saw him write that book.
   8. 33Boots Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:14 AM (#3602205)
Beane has quietly put together one of his best seasons this year. It's actually pretty crazy that he's already reasonably rebuilt the A's, and they didn't have to go through any 60 win seasons to get there. Hell, the vast majority of fans and writers didn't even realize the A's were rebuilding because Beane pulled it off so smoothly (see the 4000 articles ripping him that have been posted here the last two years).
   9. McCoy Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:24 AM (#3602213)
He's rebuilt the A's? Where the hell is the offense? Or is he hoping to move up to the 6th best organization slot? It isn't like he has a bunch of 22 year olds developing as positional players out there.
   10. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:32 AM (#3602217)
Unheralded league average is the new OBP.
   11. Bhaakon Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:49 AM (#3602230)
Unheralded league average is the new OBP.



Beane's behind the curve, the 2006 Cards did it first.
   12. 33Boots Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:50 AM (#3602233)
They need more offense, no doubt. Still, yeah, he's rebuilt the team. The A's have four good starting pitchers in their second MLB season. Four...second. The other starter, Dallas Braden, is in his third season. The closer, ROY and All-Star, Andrew Bailey, is in his second year. Pennington, second in AL SS WAR, is in his second year. Barton, by service time, is in his second year.

It was a hell of a turnover. And it's not over. They have two good hitting prospects at AAA, Chris Carter and Michael Taylor. They'll be up next year. Beane has done a great job. This team is only going to get better.
   13. McCoy Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:53 AM (#3602237)
The A's alway have 4 young good starting pitchers.
   14. steagles Posted: July 29, 2010 at 03:03 AM (#3602245)
He's rebuilt the A's? Where the hell is the offense? Or is he hoping to move up to the 6th best organization slot? It isn't like he has a bunch of 22 year olds developing as positional players out there.
there is some talent there. he's stashing michael taylor and chris carter in AAA, and he's got grant green, jemile weeks, and adrian cardenas in AA. there's a couple of lottery tickets there too, with sulentic, peterson, ladendorf, and paramore.


i'm not really a beane apologist, but there's a good amount of high upside talent making its way through their system, so while the talent at the major league level looks underwhelming at the moment, that could change very quickly.
   15. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 29, 2010 at 03:47 AM (#3602303)
Team's like the Dodgers have swept past Beane in the Podsednik chase...
   16. Willie Mayspedester Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:02 AM (#3602311)
Too bad this season's free agent hitting class looks so weak. The A's have next to zero payroll obligations next year. I like how Anderson and Suzuki are signed for a long time. Of course I'm also ignoring the fact that nobody wants to play in Oakland.
   17. AROM Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:14 AM (#3602318)
he's stashing michael taylor and chris carter in AAA


Stashing is an strange word to use for a 24 year old slugging only .400 in the PCL.

Carter's MLE (from minorleaguesplits) is 205/289/412. Not much better than Mark Trumbo (220/267/408) who is 1 year older, but not really considered a prospect. In other words, if Carter doesn't show substantial improvement in a year, he's just a Trumbo.
   18. Willie Mayspedester Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:29 AM (#3602331)
Carter's MLE (from minorleaguesplits) is 205/289/412. Not much better than Mark Trumbo (220/267/408) who is 1 year older, but not really considered a prospect. In other words, if Carter doesn't show substantial improvement in a year, he's just a Trumbo.


Trumbo never had a season like Carter had last season. Basically if Carter and Taylor continue to suck then they... will suck.

Edit: Taylor is pretty worrying considering he's so old and still struggling.

He's having a similar age 24 season in AAA to a MLB regular. If he gets way better than he's Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth 2003 24 Syracuse IL AAA TOR .237 .285 .441 .726
Michael Taylor 2010 24 Sacramento PCL AAA OAK .269 .346 .400 .746
   19. Danny Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:40 AM (#3602337)
Yes, if you ignore everything that happened before this year that made Carter a consensus top ~30 prospect (you know, the stuff that caused your own projection system to have Carter at 16 runs better than Trumbo) and pretend he's aged a full year without improving at all--then yes, he's just like Mark Trumbo.

Taylor and Carter had rough first halves, and they may have lost some of their upside sparkle, but Mark Trumbo?
   20. steagles Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:46 AM (#3602342)

Carter's MLE (from minorleaguesplits) is 205/289/412. Not much better than Mark Trumbo (220/267/408) who is 1 year older, but not really considered a prospect. In other words, if Carter doesn't show substantial improvement in a year, he's just a Trumbo.
i love your work, but if you can't see the difference between mark trumbo and chris carter, you're doing it wrong.


MLEs suck at projecting players like carter, who have high walk rates, and you're using them to compare 4 months of data without any regard to previous performance levels.

the point isn't so much that carter is gonna immediately step into the A's lineup and put up a .900 OPS, but really, if you're looking 3 years down the road, i don't think there's more than a handful of minor leaguers more likely to hit at that level than carter.

he's a hell of a talent.
   21. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: July 29, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3602366)
@13

should this count for or against Beane?
   22. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 29, 2010 at 10:53 AM (#3602391)
Brains + money > brains w/money > money w/o brains > no money, no brains

Beane's done as well as he could, but at some point he was going to run up against teams in the first category and hit a stone wall. Some of us predicted this back when the A's and Seattle were winning 100 games each. The details of his judgment of this player or that player aren't really the issue. The issue is that he's can't even bid on any veteran player who commands real money on the open market, and you can't develop a consistent winner with that sort of restraint. There's a very good reason that the postseason sees the same handful of teams year after year, and teams like the A's are just swimming up Niagara Falls trying to compete against them.
   23. Accent Shallow Posted: July 29, 2010 at 12:35 PM (#3602424)
He's having a similar age 24 season in AAA to a MLB regular. If he gets way better than he's Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth 2003 24 Syracuse IL AAA TOR .237 .285 .441 .726
Michael Taylor 2010 24 Sacramento PCL AAA OAK .269 .346 .400 .746


I haven't looked at the park factors/league offense, but isn't the International League generally considered a neutral/pitcher's league, while the PCL is a big hitter's league? Werth showed a lot more power, too -- .204 ISO v. .131.
   24. Dale Sams Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:14 PM (#3602447)
Brains + money > brains w/money > money w/o brains > no money, no brains


Zombies are the new OBP.
   25. AROM Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:25 PM (#3602453)
(you know, the stuff that caused your own projection system to have Carter at 16 runs better than Trumbo)


Updated, the gap is now 14 runs. -19 to -5. -5 is a long way from being useful when you're a first baseman. Carter is not a better hitter than Brandon Wood was at the same age in the same league.
   26. OsunaSakata Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:25 PM (#3602454)
I don't know if I could be an effective GM of a major league team either if I was doing Jennifer Aniston and Angelina Jolie.
   27. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 29, 2010 at 01:35 PM (#3602466)
I don't know if I could be an effective GM of a major league team either if I was doing Jennifer Aniston and Angelina Jolie.
I have never been a fan of Aniston and no longer remember the reasons why. She has probably been my least favorite actress since the mid 90's. I was glad when Beane stopped doing her.
   28. Dale Sams Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:02 PM (#3602486)
Thought she was fine in Office Space.
   29. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 29, 2010 at 02:06 PM (#3602489)
Carter is not a better hitter than Brandon Wood was at the same age in the same league.


And with Brandon Wood being the worst major-league hitter of the last several decades, that's bad news for Carter.
   30. thread killer Posted: July 29, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3602620)
Carter's MLE (from minorleaguesplits) is 205/289/412. Not much better than Mark Trumbo (220/267/408) who is 1 year older, but not really considered a prospect. In other words, if Carter doesn't show substantial improvement in a year, he's just a Trumbo


Mark or Dalton?
   31. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: July 29, 2010 at 04:11 PM (#3602658)
Thought she was fine in Office Space.

Agreed. I never saw "Friends," but also thought she was funny & charming in the otherwise-awful "Dream for an Insomniac."

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