But the Yankees will have to address how Alex Rodriguez’s shrinking power and how to avoid being suffocated by it in the final five years of his contract. A-Rod has gone 10 games without an RBI — his worst drought since 2005, and a particularly devastating regression for a No. 3 hitter. It’s become an open secret among American League pitchers that A-Rod can’t catch up to fastballs above the belt. He’s instead recalibrated for singles and walks.
Rodriguez was held hitless by the Blue Jays, and with the tying run on first base, ended the game with a routine fly ball to center. Two bases on balls, however, allowed him to rationalize another empty performance.
“I don’t feel too bad,” Rodriguez said after the game. “The walks are good, you build on that.”
No reasonable baseball person believes that. Even A-Rod knows he’s been reduced to white lies and nonsense.
It’s too late now to drop Rodriguez in the order; Girardi would never take that kind of risk. But unless A-Rod produces, the Yankees are looking at another early exit in the playoffs.
His strikeout ratio has climbed to 22.2 percent, the highest it’s been since 2005. One talent evaluator said Rodriguez has lost so much bat speed “he gets tied up like a pretzel” by even average hurlers such as Romero. Of course, the Yankees can blame home plate umpire Mike Everitt, who had a bad game and punched out several batters, including Rodriguez, on pitches below the knees. And if the Yankees want to make themselves feel better, they can indict second base umpire Tim Welke, too, for incorrectly calling out Brett Gardner on his attempted steal of second in the eighth inning.
Repoz
Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:27 AM |
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1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4249264)Joe Torre, professional risk-taker.
How is he 13-1 on the bases this year?
A-Rod has declined without a doubt. His OPS+ this year is his worst since he was 19, but that is still at 110 which is decent at 3B. Fangraphs lists him as being worth about $8.9 mil this year and at $19 mil 2 of the past 3 years ($15 inbetween). Still a solid player. The problem is the Yankees paying him $29 mil this year, then $28/$25/$21/$20/$20 mil over the next 5 years plus up to $30 mil in bonuses for HR marks.
At 1/2 his salary level he'd be decent, at 1/3rd he'd be solid. The problem is that isn't how it is. His most comparable through age 35 (start of this season) had from age 37 to the end (ie: A-Rod next year to the end) had 2 not playing and 4 with a WAR over 2. Those 4 included Frank Robinson (8 WAR - far too little), Hank Aaron (17.2, 163 HR), Willie Mays (21.7, 96 HR) and Barry Bonds (38.5, 195 HR). If you go on $5 mil per WAR then A-Rod would have to produce 4-6 per year over the next 5 years which only Bonds overproduced while Mays was at the low end and Aaron close. IE: The Yankees were nuts when they signed the deal and look dumber for it every day, unless they thought A-Rod could hide his drug use as long as Bonds did.
He's not just having a bad year, he's having an awful year. The article calls him an 'average hurler', which may be generous with the way he's been pitching.
Point taken though. The Jays are a major league baseball team...you lose to those kind of guys every now and then.
Their current roster doesn't appear to have a lot of mature talent, but the Jays are definitely playing with some fire, unlike most of the other non contenders.
Rk Strk Start End Games AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Tm 1 2003-06-03 2003-06-17 13 50 7 14 3 0 0 0 7 4 1 0 .280 .333 .340 .673 TEX 2 1997-07-02 1997-07-15 11 47 5 10 3 0 0 0 8 3 6 0 .213 .275 .277 .551 SEA 3 2012-09-19 2012-09-29 10 43 4 8 0 0 0 0 13 5 0 0 .186 .286 .186 .472 NYY 4 2005-05-28 2005-06-07 10 33 2 8 1 0 0 0 5 7 1 0 .242 .375 .273 .648 NYY 5 2004-04-08 2004-04-20 10 40 5 8 2 0 0 0 10 5 1 1 .200 .289 .250 .539 NYY 6 2012-05-08 2012-05-16 9 32 5 10 1 0 0 0 10 5 2 0 .313 .405 .344 .749 NYY 7 2007-05-09 2007-05-18 9 32 1 4 0 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 .125 .263 .125 .388 NYY 8 1997-05-03 1997-05-13 9 37 9 10 3 0 0 0 7 4 2 0 .270 .357 .351 .708 SEA 9 2011-09-26 2012-04-11 8 29 3 5 2 0 0 0 8 7 1 0 .172 .351 .241 .593 NYY 10 2011-07-02 2011-08-25 8 35 6 8 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 .229 .270 .229 .499 NYY 11 2011-04-29 2011-05-07 8 31 4 5 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 .161 .188 .161 .349 NYY 12 2007-04-24 2007-05-03 8 29 3 8 1 0 0 0 5 3 1 0 .276 .364 .310 .674 NYY 13 2004-08-05 2004-08-12 8 31 5 7 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 0 .226 .314 .226 .540 NYY 14 2001-10-05 2002-04-05 8 30 2 2 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 0 .067 .200 .067 .267 TEX 15 1996-09-26 1997-04-05 8 34 3 8 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 .235 .235 .353 .588 SEAAn 815 OPS+ ain't half bad, even for a DH.
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No, he won't reach Barrytown.
Any major dude will tell you that.
Fangraphs uses a generic value for each added win, and doesn't try to adjust it for each team. An additional win is worth more money for the Yankees than for most other teams. So the $29M might not be as much of an overpay as one would first think.
cite: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six
I have no perception that the Jays have stopped trying; my impression is more that they've just about run out of bullets. That there are quite a few games where they just don't have enough left in the tank to stop the other team from pounding them into a thin film overlaying the infield.
Yeah, his talent baseline was high enough that I wouldn't be shocked to see him make some adjustments and have another pretty good year or two.
The baserunning is probably due mostly to his baseball smarts, which are actually substantial. He's certainly not fast anymore, no faster than average anyway.
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