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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Klapisch: Yankees’ unacceptable loss, A-Rod’s regression and the Girardi-Showalter mismatch

Pretzel Logical Positivism: Any Major League Talent Evaluator Will Tell You.

But the Yankees will have to address how Alex Rodriguez’s shrinking power and how to avoid being suffocated by it in the final five years of his contract. A-Rod has gone 10 games without an RBI — his worst drought since 2005, and a particularly devastating regression for a No. 3 hitter. It’s become an open secret among American League pitchers that A-Rod can’t catch up to fastballs above the belt. He’s instead recalibrated for singles and walks.

Rodriguez was held hitless by the Blue Jays, and with the tying run on first base, ended the game with a routine fly ball to center. Two bases on balls, however, allowed him to rationalize another empty performance.

“I don’t feel too bad,” Rodriguez said after the game. “The walks are good, you build on that.”

No reasonable baseball person believes that. Even A-Rod knows he’s been reduced to white lies and nonsense.

It’s too late now to drop Rodriguez in the order; Girardi would never take that kind of risk. But unless A-Rod produces, the Yankees are looking at another early exit in the playoffs.

His strikeout ratio has climbed to 22.2 percent, the highest it’s been since 2005. One talent evaluator said Rodriguez has lost so much bat speed “he gets tied up like a pretzel” by even average hurlers such as Romero. Of course, the Yankees can blame home plate umpire Mike Everitt, who had a bad game and punched out several batters, including Rodriguez, on pitches below the knees. And if the Yankees want to make themselves feel better, they can indict second base umpire Tim Welke, too, for incorrectly calling out Brett Gardner on his attempted steal of second in the eighth inning.

Repoz Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:27 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4249264)
It was looking like A-Rod was a lock to pass Bonds but with only 34 homers in the last two seasons combined, I'd guess that he won't make it.
   2. GIANTlhbASS Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4249282)
It’s too late now to drop Rodriguez in the order; Girardi would never take that kind of risk.

Joe Torre, professional risk-taker.
   3. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4249290)
He's still a useful player. And I could see him bouncing back up to a 130 OPS+. But he hasn't led the league in anything since 2008.

How is he 13-1 on the bases this year?
   4. John Northey Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4249291)
Geez, you'd think the Jays were a rookie ball team the way this guy goes about it. Romero was an all-star last year and even got a Cy Young vote - yeah, he's having a bad year but geez.

A-Rod has declined without a doubt. His OPS+ this year is his worst since he was 19, but that is still at 110 which is decent at 3B. Fangraphs lists him as being worth about $8.9 mil this year and at $19 mil 2 of the past 3 years ($15 inbetween). Still a solid player. The problem is the Yankees paying him $29 mil this year, then $28/$25/$21/$20/$20 mil over the next 5 years plus up to $30 mil in bonuses for HR marks.

At 1/2 his salary level he'd be decent, at 1/3rd he'd be solid. The problem is that isn't how it is. His most comparable through age 35 (start of this season) had from age 37 to the end (ie: A-Rod next year to the end) had 2 not playing and 4 with a WAR over 2. Those 4 included Frank Robinson (8 WAR - far too little), Hank Aaron (17.2, 163 HR), Willie Mays (21.7, 96 HR) and Barry Bonds (38.5, 195 HR). If you go on $5 mil per WAR then A-Rod would have to produce 4-6 per year over the next 5 years which only Bonds overproduced while Mays was at the low end and Aaron close. IE: The Yankees were nuts when they signed the deal and look dumber for it every day, unless they thought A-Rod could hide his drug use as long as Bonds did.
   5. John Northey Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4249296)
Just noticed this will be his first year without being in the all-star game or getting an MVP vote (barring a major shock) since he was 19. Last year was his first without an MVP vote since he was 21 and hit 300-350-496 (120 OPS+) at shortstop over a full season (what were the voters thinking back then? Rafael Palmeiro at 1B/DH with a 815 OPS+ got lots of votes for example).
   6. Dale Sams Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4249299)
I got DUIed just from reading that article.
   7. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4249305)
Romero was an all-star last year and even got a Cy Young vote - yeah, he's having a bad year but geez.

He's not just having a bad year, he's having an awful year. The article calls him an 'average hurler', which may be generous with the way he's been pitching.
   8. Greg K Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4249314)
Yeah, whatever Romero was last year, and whatever we can reasonably expect him to be next year, right now he is a terrible pitcher, and has been for a while.

Point taken though. The Jays are a major league baseball team...you lose to those kind of guys every now and then.
   9. DKDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4249317)
The Jays played the Orioles pretty tough, too.

Their current roster doesn't appear to have a lot of mature talent, but the Jays are definitely playing with some fire, unlike most of the other non contenders.
   10. Chris Fluit Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4249321)
The Jays are playing with fire this week but last week they had an 0-7 road streak, getting swept by both New York and Tampa Bay.
   11. Yastrzemski in left. Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4249324)
Amazing how PED's can make good players into legends and ordinary players more ordinary.
   12. bobm Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4249327)
A-Rod has gone 10 games without an RBI — his worst drought since 2005

                                                                                         
Rk   Strk Start        End Games AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  Tm
1    2003-06-03 2003-06-17    13 50 7 14  3  0  0   0  7  4  1  0 .280 .333 .340 .673 TEX
                                                                                         
2    1997-07-02 1997-07-15    11 47 5 10  3  0  0   0  8  3  6  0 .213 .275 .277 .551 SEA
                                                                                         
3    2012-09-19 2012-09-29    10 43 4  8  0  0  0   0 13  5  0  0 .186 .286 .186 .472 NYY
4    2005-05-28 2005-06-07    10 33 2  8  1  0  0   0  5  7  1  0 .242 .375 .273 .648 NYY
5    2004-04-08 2004-04-20    10 40 5  8  2  0  0   0 10  5  1  1 .200 .289 .250 .539 NYY
                                                                                         
6    2012-05-08 2012-05-16     9 32 5 10  1  0  0   0 10  5  2  0 .313 .405 .344 .749 NYY
7    2007-05-09 2007-05-18     9 32 1  4  0  0  0   0  6  5  1  0 .125 .263 .125 .388 NYY
8    1997-05-03 1997-05-13     9 37 9 10  3  0  0   0  7  4  2  0 .270 .357 .351 .708 SEA
                                                                                         
9    2011-09-26 2012-04-11     8 29 3  5  2  0  0   0  8  7  1  0 .172 .351 .241 .593 NYY
10   2011-07-02 2011-08-25     8 35 6  8  0  0  0   0  6  2  0  0 .229 .270 .229 .499 NYY
11   2011-04-29 2011-05-07     8 31 4  5  0  0  0   0  8  1  0  0 .161 .188 .161 .349 NYY
12   2007-04-24 2007-05-03     8 29 3  8  1  0  0   0  5  3  1  0 .276 .364 .310 .674 NYY
13   2004-08-05 2004-08-12     8 31 5  7  0  0  0   0  6  3  0  0 .226 .314 .226 .540 NYY
14   2001-10-05 2002-04-05     8 30 2  2  0  0  0   0  9  3  0  0 .067 .200 .067 .267 TEX
15   1996-09-26 1997-04-05     8 34 3  8  4  0  0   0  6  0  0  0 .235 .235 .353 .588 SEA
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4249344)
Rafael Palmeiro at 1B/DH with a 815 OPS+ got lots of votes for example).


An 815 OPS+ ain't half bad, even for a DH.
   14. DKDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4249386)
I take back everything positive I said about the Jays in #9.
   15. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4249390)
To my mind - even though he's still a useful/good player, as I said - it's disappointing that he declined this much this quickly.
.
   16. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4249396)
It was looking like A-Rod was a lock to pass Bonds but with only 34 homers in the last two seasons combined, I'd guess that he won't make it.


No, he won't reach Barrytown.
   17. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4249409)
No, he won't reach Barrytown.


Any major dude will tell you that.
   18. Don Malcolm Posted: September 30, 2012 at 05:20 PM (#4249420)
Repoz--please lose that numbah...
   19. Karl from NY Posted: September 30, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4249435)
Fangraphs lists him as being worth about $8.9 mil this year and at $19 mil 2 of the past 3 years ($15 inbetween). Still a solid player. The problem is the Yankees paying him $29 mil

Fangraphs uses a generic value for each added win, and doesn't try to adjust it for each team. An additional win is worth more money for the Yankees than for most other teams. So the $29M might not be as much of an overpay as one would first think.

cite: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six
   20. Matthew E Posted: October 01, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4249785)
The Jays are playing with fire this week but last week they had an 0-7 road streak, getting swept by both New York and Tampa Bay.


I have no perception that the Jays have stopped trying; my impression is more that they've just about run out of bullets. That there are quite a few games where they just don't have enough left in the tank to stop the other team from pounding them into a thin film overlaying the infield.
   21. The Good Face Posted: October 01, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4249816)
He's still a useful player. And I could see him bouncing back up to a 130 OPS+. But he hasn't led the league in anything since 2008.

How is he 13-1 on the bases this year?


Yeah, his talent baseline was high enough that I wouldn't be shocked to see him make some adjustments and have another pretty good year or two.

The baserunning is probably due mostly to his baseball smarts, which are actually substantial. He's certainly not fast anymore, no faster than average anyway.

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