Yes, they could have. Had they been stupid.

We won’t fully know the answer to the second question for a long time based on a lot of variables. But a phone call from Scott Boras over the weekend reminded me that the correct answer to the first question is a resounding yes.

As Boras put it, “It depends..."

Resounding indeed.

Dupe.

Huntington: Appel could have accepted less.

i do NOT get this. boras thinks that a team would give appel more than a team is allowed for rounds 1-10, pick crap for 2-10, AND forfeit their next year's first rounder? which is what would happen with them paying appel 5.5 mill

and next year, appel has ZERO leverage. NONE. he can go into the indys all right, but he would STILL have to go back into the draft and no one is gonna pay him millions

I don't think there's much to question in the signing strategy. I think, though, there's some question as to whether Giolito's signability wasn't underestimated.

i do NOT get this. boras thinks that a team would give appel more than a team is allowed for rounds 1-10, pick crap for 2-10, AND forfeit their next year's first rounder?

Well, if this was Bryce Harper we were talking about, that's probably the rational move. It comes down to whether you think Appel was #1 overall talent or not (or maybe even down to #2 or #3). As Boras mostly says in that excerpt.

Remember, the average payoff of a #1 pick is a lot more than #2 and that value falls away quickly. The best #8 pick of all-time is Helton. 7 guys have 10+ WAR and that includes such average pitchers as Ruthven (16 WAR), Joey Hamilton and Maholm (10 WAR). Those are GOOD #8 picks. The rough equivalent for #1 overall is 30-40 WAR. That said, the best pitcher taken #1 overall was Andy Benes with 28.5 WAR (next time you're at your corner sabermetric bar, I bet you can win some free drinks with that one).

Of course there's a big difference between thinking Appel was the best player in this draft (questionable anyway) and that he's a "true #1" talent. But if they passed up on an Andy Benes for the hope of drafting a Dick Ruthven next year, they might well have been better off forfeiting next year's pick.

and next year, appel has ZERO leverage.

Yes, but he might get picked before the Pirates get a chance to grab him. Realistically, if the Pirates wanted him, they had to grab him this year. Obviously they didn't agree with Boras' calculus (surprise!).

But, yeah, Appel's decision doesn't look too bright to me. Boras is now trying to position him for the next draft -- "he was the consensus #1 in this draft, imagine after one more year of development under his belt."

Boras is just a spokesman here - he's covering for his client. It's hard for me to believe that Boras thinks this is a good idea, because he knows the ropes, and this is pretty close to objective stupidity on Appel's part unless everything breaks exactly right for him over the next year.

It seems pretty likely that Appel's pride was wounded by falling as far as he did, he wouldn't get over it, and now Boras has to cover for him.

Or it's possible that Boras miscalculated teams' willingness to go over slot. If teams demonstrate over the next couple of years that they're not going over slot, the leverage for anyone with less than Strasburg talent is going to be almost nil.

Or it's possible that Boras miscalculated teams' willingness to go over slot. If teams demonstrate over the next couple of years that they're not going over slot, the leverage for anyone with less than Strasburg talent is going to be almost nil.

This seems likely. I think Appel has a whole lot more to lose than gain. A bad year and he won't get as much in an offer. A good year and he might not even exceed what he got offered this time.

A good year and he might not even exceed what he got offered this time.

Why would anyone offer him more than $3.8 million no matter how good his year is?

Boras is just a spokesman here - he's covering for his client. It's hard for me to believe that Boras thinks this is a good idea, because he knows the ropes, and this is pretty close to objective stupidity on Appel's part unless everything breaks exactly right for him over the next year.

It's the client's call, and one would think that a Stanford guy could weigh the risks, even without Boras' input. Still, Boras does benefit somewhat - it's no longer a totally hollow threat that his clients could go back for their senior year, so perhaps teams sweeten their offer a bit. Or just decide Boras clients are just too difficult to deal with?

Still, Boras does benefit somewhat - it's no longer a totally hollow threat that his clients could go back for their senior year, so perhaps teams sweeten their offer a bit.

It's still a hollow threat unless Appel significantly improves his position in the next year. But he's already a top 10 pick as is - it's not like he was a third rounder with a lot of room to move up.

Basically, like DTM said in #10, he's got to have a great year just to get himself back to the same position he's in now, and a really exceptional one to move up substantially. And for that, he threw away a guaranteed $3.8 million and a year of his pro career. That's all fine and good if Appel really, sincerely wants to go back to Stanford, but as a ploy to milk a better contract next time around?

I just don't think Boras is dumb enough to like those odds. I don't think it's at all likely that he was driving Appel to hold out a year.

I just don't think Boras is dumb enough to like those odds. I don't think it's at all likely that he was driving Appel to hold out a year.

Not to mention that Appel could decide to change "advisors" before signing a contract next year. Then Boras would be out all commission.

I think Boras is smart enough to pick better battles than this.

Why would anyone offer him more than $3.8 million no matter how good his year is?


If next year's draft class is as weak as currently thought, he may be drafted higher and thus have access to a higher slot number---potentially a couple mil higher.

If next year's draft class is as weak as currently thought, he may be drafted higher and thus have access to a higher slot number---potentially a couple mil higher.

That is certainly possible. It's also possible--at least as likely, I think--that he gets hurt and/or loses a couple MPH off his fastball and crashes to the bottom of the first and has to take $1.4 million or whatever. And even if he goes at the top, I don't think it's likely the team drafting him is going to offer him more than a token $200,000 or something over slot; why should they? He has a lot more to lose than to gain, I think.

Its also possible he really didn't want to play for the Pirates. He didn't seem real enthused when he fell to them. Money isn't everything.

Its also possible he really didn't want to play for the Pirates. He didn't seem real enthused when he fell to them. Money isn't everything.

That crossed my mind. It's possible that played into it. But the curse of being one of the best talents is you're bound to be picked by one of the worst teams. I don't imagine he'd enjoy being picked by the Twins or Royals or Rockies or Phillies. Might be OK with the Padres or Mariners, though.

he threw away a guaranteed $3.8 million and a year of his pro career

This. With the new system in place, the financial goal of the baseball player should be to get to the majors, and then to arbitration, as fast as possible. If he is as great as Boras believes, he has likely traded in a prime year of his auperstar career for a chance to make an extra 2 million next year. That's a lot of risk, especially when you look and see that a former #1 semi-failure like Luke Hochevar is making 3.5 million in his first arb year.

That crossed my mind. It's possible that played into it. But the curse of being one of the best talents is you're bound to be picked by one of the worst teams. I don't imagine he'd enjoy being picked by the Twins or Royals or Rockies or Phillies. Might be OK with the Padres or Mariners, though.

I was thinking the Pirates and Royals have a whole different stigma than your typical one year loser, both by being bad for well over a decade, and also being in sleepy, small market cities.

This. With the new system in place, the financial goal of the baseball player should be to get to the majors, and then to arbitration, as fast as possible. If he is as great as Boras believes, he has likely traded in a prime year of his auperstar career for a chance to make an extra 2 million next year. That's a lot of risk, especially when you look and see that a former #1 semi-failure like Luke Hochevar is making 3.5 million in his first arb year.

That's kind of an odd example to use considering Hooch did turn down pretty good first round money, went to an indy league, then became the #1 overall pick and was offered way more money.

Man, Kansas City is no sleepy city, not when it comes to baseball. If the Royals put a team worth supporting on the field one of these years I strongly suspect their fans would support the holy living hell out of them and it would be about the most fun place in the world to play baseball. I think the same is true of Pirates fans, but probably not quite as much so (Pittsburgh's heart belongs to the Steelers). This isn't baseball in Florida; these are teams with strong traditions and loyal fans. Just very, very bad ownership.

That's kind of an odd example to use considering Hooch did turn down pretty good first round money, went to an indy league, then became the #1 overall pick and was offered way more money.

Hochevar wasn't drafted under these rules. Teams weren't shackled to any slotting system when he was drafted. The point is that he has been pretty bad, but is still outearning the likely difference in what Appel wants and what he was offered.

I meant sleepy in that you're not in a major media market, and there's less to do in KC than say Miami at night.

At the Indy-Columbus game today, they played a segment with NH about Appel. He talked about how Appel really had never been viewed as the best talent in the draft...while acknowledging that he'd been "Top 5-10" at places such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, etc. (Got a chuckle out of a GM mentioning BPro in an interview to be broadcast at the minor league parks...how far we have come that Neal thought such was relevant!) In essence, NH noted that Appel was probably the top college pitcher, but he wasn't Strasburg or Jared Weaver, so they'll just take the #9 pick next year instead of giving up next year's pick. Overall, the snippet sounded intelligent and consistent with Primer Group-Think on the subject. Made me happy.

The pool figure for the top 4 picks this year was more than $3.5 million, and the pool figure for #5 was $3.5 million. So if Appel goes in the top 5 next year, he will likely end up getting a bigger bonus than he was offered this year. He's betting he'll go top 5.

I meant sleepy in that you're not in a major media market, and there's less to do in KC than say Miami at night.

Honestly, what more can you do in Miami than in KC? There's nightclubs in both cities.

It's OK to come right out and say Miami offers hotter women. (Also, very likely, more recognizable celebrities at any given time.)

If next year's draft class is as weak as currently thought, he may be drafted higher and thus have access to a higher slot number---potentially a couple mil higher.

Sure but the team doesn't have to offer the slot amount. They can offer $3M and dare him to go to the Atlantic League

Sure but the team doesn't have to offer the slot amount. They can offer $3M and dare him to go to the Atlantic League

And waste a top 5 pick in the first round?

The pool figure for the top 4 picks this year was more than $3.5 million, and the pool figure for #5 was $3.5 million. So if Appel goes in the top 5 next year, he will likely end up getting a bigger bonus than he was offered this year. He's betting he'll go top 5.

He's betting he'll go top 2; otherwise it's an insane bet. Suppose he goes #4. At the very most he'll get a $4.5 million bonus for that. So whoopee: by delaying his eventual first free agent mega-contract by a year (and incurring significant extra risk that his arm will blow out before he gets there) he made himself an extra $700,000. Not now, you understand; a year from now.

There's a fair argument to be made that even if he were guaranteed to be the #1 pick next year, turning down the Pirates' $3.8 million was a losing play, financially.

You might argue it's worth it to stay the hell out of Pittsburgh (and Altoona, North America's most depressing city). But he's paying a pretty penny for that privilege.

This was a down draft year, next year's is supposed to be better. With players coming out of college like Bryant, Whitson, Wilson, Wahl and Stanek plus high schoolers like Austin Meadows, Jeremy Martinez, Clinton Hollan, and Stephen Gonsalves it is a possibility that Appel doesn't go Top 5, and with the studies being published relating age of turning pro to success rates and him likely leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many GMs by expecting the Pirates to forfeit a future #1 for him... he may drop all the way to #10. I personally think it was the wrong move to make, especially with the way the Pirates are turning things around. But, maybe he just grew up hating the Pirates. They haven't had a winning season since before he could walk.

And waste a top 5 pick in the first round?

If you don't sign your pick you get a pick the next year one spot back (i.e. if you fail to sign the #5 pick you get the #6 pick the next year).

Boxkutter: I have read in numerous places that next year's is supposed to be worse. I'm pretty sure the truth is, no one knows.

Also the Pirates aren't turning anything around, not yet. The Pirates this time last year sat exactly where they do right now; they lost 90 games last year, and will lose 85+ this year (unless they sell the farm for Justin Upton or Zack Greinke or something, in which case they'll merely lose in the low 80s). Their high minors remain very thinly stocked on talent. They're slightly more respectable than they were two years ago and beyond, but they're still at least a few years away from thinking about contention. That is why, just like last year, I believe it is strongly against their best interests to trade young talent for a veteran right now. They could add Carlos Quentin and they still would not be as good as the Reds.

If you don't sign your pick you get a pick the next year one spot back (i.e. if you fail to sign the #5 pick you get the #6 pick the next year).

In what might well be a stronger draft, and probably won't be a weaker one.

Boxkutter: I have read in numerous places that next year's is supposed to be worse. I'm pretty sure the truth is, no one knows.

I have been reading that recently, but up until a month ago most of the stuff I read was saying it was supposed to be a better draft than this year's. I actually think it's going to be better as well. Maybe not quite as deep (Joey Gallo in the supplemental round!?!?! I have a man-crush on that kid!), but then again I don't follow close enough to where I know 2nd and 3rd round prospects. But I like the top end high school and college talent in next year's draft better, especially Meadows and Martinez.

If you don't sign your pick you get a pick the next year one spot back (i.e. if you fail to sign the #5 pick you get the #6 pick the next year).

This has probably been answered, but what happens if you don't sign that guy? You get #7 the following year? I mean, the Pirates might have, let's say, the number 4 pick and the number 7. If they don't sign either one, do they get 5 and 8 in the following year?

This has probably been answered, but what happens if you don't sign that guy? You get #7 the following year? I mean, the Pirates might have, let's say, the number 4 pick and the number 7. If they don't sign either one, do they get 5 and 8 in the following year?

I believe the compensation for not signing a pick only carries over for one year. If they don't sign the #7 next year, they don't get anything extra the year after that - except for angry fans.

RJ: Right, which means that with the #9 next year they pretty much have to draft someone who they know will accept slot. They will probably draft someone who will accept significantly less than slot, to free up money to give to lower round picks, which they seem fond of doing.

So whoopee: by delaying his eventual first free agent mega-contract by a year (and incurring significant extra risk that his arm will blow out before he gets there) he made himself an extra $700,000.

I don't think that it is a given he's delayed his eventual first free agent mega-contract by a year.

I don't think that it is a given he's delayed his eventual first free agent mega-contract by a year.

I wouldn't say that it's necessarily true, either. In order for it to be not true, though, the team that signs him next year will essentially have to believe that his extra year at Stanford was equivalent in development terms to a year spent in the minors under pro instruction. That may end up being the case, but how likely is it?

Sure but the team doesn't have to offer the slot amount. They can offer $3M and dare him to go to the Atlantic League

This is my thinking as well. Appel is not only betting he will be drafted higher but also that his lost leverage will not hurt him.

If I had to venture a guess it's that he and his advisors believed he was a #1 talent and he had a realistic shot at breaking the slot.

I don't think that it is a given he's delayed his eventual first free agent mega-contract by a year.

Nothing is a given, but if he signs and is good, there's a real chance that he hits the majors in mid-2013. As it now stands, even if he dominates college ball next year, it seems unlikely he will even be signed to a contract until July 2013, which pushes him off until spring training 2014 at the earliest, and even longer if the team chooses to mess with his arb clock. It's a gamble, but he needs a lot of things to go right for him to have it pay off.

If this was a game of craps, instead of starting off his initial bet on the pass line and hoping for a 7 or 11, Appel and his advisers decided to bet on an one time bet on snake eyes.

Why would anyone offer him more than $3.8 million no matter how good his year is?


If next year's draft class is as weak as currently thought, he may be drafted higher and thus have access to a higher slot number---potentially a couple mil higher.

Hochever...

How the eff is Hoch making 3.5 this year?

How the eff did he make 1.75 in 2010 and 1.75 in 2011?

He is terrible, absolutely terrible, career ERA+ of 80, he's basically no better than 20-30% of AAA pitchers,

Is it Boras?
Is it Moore?

Looking at pitchers of comparable quality 2008-2010, you see, to have 2 types- veterans who pitched well previously- and guys like Hoch who have NEVER pitched well- the second group tends to make way less than Hoch, and frequently find themselves out of MLB...

Why is Hoch's salary going up? Andrew Miller sees his go down every year...

Charlie Morton at 2.4 is getting paid way too much imho in 2012- but then again his 2011 is better than anything Hoch ever did in he MLB

Roberto Hernandez is getting too much- but hey he was actually really good one year, and didn't suck another...

Brad Penny pitched a lot like Hoch did 2008-2012- though he was good before 2008, he made 3m in his very Hochlike 2011 season- sigend to play in Japan for 3m, walked out on them and then signed a minor league deal...


I mean paying 3.5m to Hoch in 2012 isn't by itself a budget buster, but jeez...

I think Boras is smart enough to pick better battles than this.

Yes but I do think Boras wants to find a way to break this system. It does seem to put in a lot of perverse incentives. Drafting high school players would seem like a big risk right now for teams, especially in later rounds. Teams have incentives to low-ball guys in bad draft years to get the comp pick in a stronger class the next year. What happens when 5 teams don't sign their first picks? People here are still talking about "signability" issues which is exactly what a slotting system is supposed to solve.

Basically Boras is seeing a guy who dropped in the draft who, normally, he might well have been able to get signed for #4/#5 money based on talent. He sees a Prior-Mauer scenario where Prior slips to #2 and loses a few million not because of talent or ranking.

So my guess is Boras knows the system is going to be tweaked -- and he has incentive to make that happen sooner than later.

Which is not meant to say I think he pushed Appel into this -- he may have or he may not have. Just that I don't think Boras (or any agent) likes this system at all and does have incentive to make its shortcomings apparent.

How the eff is Hoch making 3.5 this year?

(1) he's a super 2 so he's paid like a guy with nearly 4 years service time than like 3 years.

(2) Ummm... a little stuck. His health history isn't good which is a problem. But I'm guessing the "Jack Wilson principle" applied. That is, you can't go into an arb hearing and argue "this guy sucks" when you keep him in your starting rotation/lineup for years. If you really think he sucks, non-tender him. So a full-time starting pitcher with nearly 4 years service time is minimum $3.5 M basically. But the health history blows a bit of a hole in the Jack Wilson principle but they still put him in the rotation whenever he was healthy.

So it's mainly Moore. He could have non-tendered him then tried to sign him for less money, but he didn't. As soon as the Royals offered arb, they were probably stuck with something like at least $3 M. The difference between him and Charlie Morton is nearly one full year of service time. Miller was non-tendered by the Marlins earlier in his career and still floats between majors and minors and is mainly a reliever now. I'd never heard of Roberto Hernandez before. But he got $2.9 M in his firat arb year (might have been super 2) back in 2009 which is not out of line with $3.5 in 2012 and it looks like he got a arb-years buyout deal (although for some reason b-r has no contract or service time details on him).

It's the kinda silly part of the arb system but teams can always non-tender to avoid this. That they didn't means the Royals thought that Hochevar was going to get something like a $3 M offer from someone else. If they're wrong about that, obviously that's on the Royals but I do think it's pretty likely he'd have gotten something like $3.5 in arb.

If it was Boras, I think he would have pressed on more of his players to push the system though. He represented at least 5 players chosen in the first round, but they all signed but Appel. Does that mean that he thought less of his other clients, or that only Appel wanted to 'push' the market, so to speak?

Well, the players have to also be willing to say no and turn down millions. I believe almost all of his first round clients did get above slot pay.

RJ: Right, which means that with the #9 next year they pretty much have to draft someone who they know will accept slot.

in 2004 the Orioles failed to sign Wade Townsend with the 8th overall pick- they got the 48th pick in 2005 as compensation-Garrett Olson who has had a bit more success than Townsend...

Townsend got just 1.5m from TB the next year

in 2008 the Nats failed to sign Aaron Crow (9th), their comp pick was Drew Storen
Crow went 12th the next year to KC, was abysmal in the minors (as a starter)- was promoted to the MLB anyway- and has been decent as a reliever

the Yankees failed to sign Gerrit Cole (28th), their comp pick was Slade Heathcott (29th)
Cole went #1 overall in 2011

the Pirates failed to sign Tanner Scheppers, their comp pick was Victor Black
Scheppers went 44th the next year

in 2009 the Rangers failed to sign Matt Purke...
(the guys not signing seem to be almost all pitchers btw), Purke went in the 3rd round in 2011...

and after I write that the Rays failed to sign non-pitcher Levon Washington...

It seems to me that most guys not named Hochevar do worse when they refuse to sign and go back into the draft- not only do they "lose" a year, delay their arb/AF eligibility- they lose money too.

I have no doubt that Boras knows that- and that he conveyed that to Appel. I also have no doubt that Appel- like most successful athletes has an ego- and he's seen that ego vindicated- he's been ranked #1 overall by some after all- The slot for #1 is around 7, the slot for #2 is 6- he just wasn't going to take 3.8 he "knows" he's going to get 6-7 next year.

Joey Gallo in the supplemental round!?!?!

Well, he has always been on the outside of whatever side there was.

If it was Boras, I think he would have pressed on more of his players to push the system though. He represented at least 5 players chosen in the first round, but they all signed but Appel. Does that mean that he thought less of his other clients, or that only Appel wanted to 'push' the market, so to speak?

Likely only Appel wanted to push the market- not all of Boras' guys are "hard" signs
and not all the guys who are "hard" signs are Boars guys either.

Sure Boras may want to "test" the system- but MLB keeps moving to close off every loophole he finds- does he have one here? Does he think he has found one? I dunno, maybe this is just Appel-

plus from Seligula's POV this worked how it was supposed to work- the guy who wouldn't take slot (slot plus .9 I believe) was told to take a hike-

but I do think it's pretty likely he'd have gotten something like $3.5 in arb.

I would have non-tendered him - but then again what do I know :-)

I've only seen him pitch twice, and he looked like a poor man's version of Mike Pelfrey (and that is NOT a good thing)

My understanding is that he went from 40th to 1st, by looking good at a couple of workouts- if that's true that is a terrible indictment of whoever decided he was the best guy in the draft...

looking at that 2006 draft - quite few of the pitchers taken have out performed Hoch... judging by pitching quality I think the Dodgers in 2005 drafting Hoch at 40 had a better grasp on his talent level- Hoch at #1 was a bigger reach at the time than Matt Bush

If it was Boras, I think he would have pressed on more of his players to push the system though. He represented at least 5 players chosen in the first round, but they all signed but Appel. Does that mean that he thought less of his other clients, or that only Appel wanted to 'push' the market, so to speak?

It sure seems that unless he can destroy the whole "singing pool" system he's pushing water up hill. Given that the system seemed to work for everyone else (teams and players alike), I just don't see how either Boras or Appel think this is a good move.

Kovacevic's scenario, where a team effectively forfeits 8 picks to sign one, seems like lunacy. Given the crapshoot that is the baseball draft (especially for pitchers), why in the world would you sell your soul to get one player?

Does he think he has found one?

I doubt it. I don't think he really pushed Appel into this at all (not that I know). My comments were meant to suggest that I think Boras would like (in an ideal world) to expose the inherent "flaws" in the system. He wants teams to understand the ways in which this system can limit them from acquiring the talent that they want.

Presumably they didn't but what happens if the scenario Boras paints happens -- what if the Pirates consider Appel to be #1 (or #2 or #3) overall talent. In previous years, they'd have been delirious that he fell to them at #8. Now they first have to decide if he's worth drafting at all due to signability concerns (which would only get worse the farther he falls). Then they have to decide between paying him over slot and screwing over their others. They do have the protection of the comp pick last year which obviously takes a lot of pressure off.

Now make him a high school kid drafted say 20th. Going to college is gonna look a lot more attractive if the team can't go over slot. Again, the team has a much tougher decision about whether to draft him to begin with.

As a whole, the system would seem to achieve what I assume it wants to achieve -- less leverage (moneywise) for players, more players going to college, thereby maybe shifting some of the development costs (and injury risk) to college. But for a particular team that sees a talent they want and could have if they offered just $500,000 more but has to leave him unsigned -- it's not clear the system works for that team. That that team is as likely (or more likely) to be the Pirates than the Yankees is not what the draft is supposed to be about.

By the way, I assume offering a ML deal is not a work-around to these slots, is it?

Normally I think prospects who pass up $MM bonuses are deluded, but someone fixing to attend a senior year at Stanford (as a few posters have noted) might just be lucid about the tradeoff. (Though if he's that lucid about his education, why is Boras his agent?)

John Mayberry Jr, who passed up pro ball out of high school to go to Stanford, eventually did sign as a college junior, but made sure he could go back the next fall and complete his degree. Appel could probably work something like that out easily enough, so one imagines he probably is deluded. There's no guarantee whatsoever that you're going to be a star (Mayberry is a journeyman), and the bonus, while nice, might not mean as much in the course of your life as a Stanford degree. But if you can have both …?

By the way, I assume offering a ML deal is not a work-around to these slots, is it?

New CBA states you can't offer ML deals to draftees now.

in 2008 the Nats failed to sign Aaron Crow (9th), their comp pick was Drew Storen
Crow went 12th the next year to KC, was abysmal in the minors (as a starter)- was promoted to the MLB anyway- and has been decent as a reliever

the Yankees failed to sign Gerrit Cole (28th), their comp pick was Slade Heathcott (29th)
Cole went #1 overall in 2011

the Pirates failed to sign Tanner Scheppers, their comp pick was Victor Black
Scheppers went 44th the next year

in 2009 the Rangers failed to sign Matt Purke...
(the guys not signing seem to be almost all pitchers btw), Purke went in the 3rd round in 2011...

and after I write that the Rays failed to sign non-pitcher Levon Washington...

It seems to me that most guys not named Hochevar do worse when they refuse to sign and go back into the draft- not only do they "lose" a year, delay their arb/AF eligibility- they lose money too.

That is really poor analysis. Why are you using draft spot as a proxy for money made?

Crow turned down 3.5 million guaranteed from the Nationals and got an MLB contract guaranteeing 3 million but with the possibility of another 1.5 million in earnings from the Royals.

Scheppers was offered less than 1 million from the Pirates and re-entered the draft and was paid 1.25 by the Rangers.

As for Purke, had agreed to a 6 million dollar deal with the Rangers only to see MLB veto the Rangers offer due to their bankrupt ownership at the time. That is hardly the same thing as a guy choosing not to sign. MLB only allowed the Rangers to offer Purke 4 million. Purke signed a major league contract with the Nationals, in the third round, that guaranteed him 4.15 million and could pay him about 5 million.

LeVon Washington signed for more in his second time in the draft than he was offered the first time he was drafted, despite being drafted a little lower.

Now, whether this delays their arb clock/FA contracts (which generously assumes guys will ever get that far) is a different question but as far as upfront payment goes, yeah, it can certainly pay for high-profile guys to not sign and try their luck in the draft again.