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1. Pony-Upton Posted: March 30, 2010 at 12:33 PM (#3488546)Or they won't, and you'll be crying over spilt Matt Holliday.
While this is techincally true, does anyone believe that Cameron will even get up to the 5% mark?
I don't understand your comment about "effectively playing LF". I think his abilities in CF are good and Jacoby will be better in LF than he was in CF.
Remember how it used to be that football announcers would use the phrase "speed at the skill positions" as code for "black dudes playing wide receiver"? That's the first thing I thought of here.
It also happens to be true, though. Age regardless, Jason Bay was a fat-butted lump, and Mike Cameron is fast and agile.
Dave Cameron respectfully disagrees.
I'm not sure he does anything "respectfully".
Is that the same Dave Cameron who wrote this before last season?
He's funny. Why doesn't he just ask these teams for a job instead of playing baseball analyst?
I can't wait to see where Seattle ranks now that they have a guy who does things the Fangraphs way. Looks like they'll be at least the 7th best organization in baseball according to Fangraphs. Yeah, they totally deserve that ranking.
He's clearly playing surname favoritism here.
It'll be interesting to see Ellsbury in Fenway's LF, hopefully it'll give us some feel of how much Manny and Bay's poor UZR ratings were the players, and how much was the park. (Of course, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth when Ellsbury had a poor UZR in CF last year, despite being so fast.)
It'll also be interesting to see how much longer Cameron can hit -- he's getting old, so a slight dip in bat speed could push the Ks over the acceptable level, and suddenly he's not a major league player. Of course, playing in Fenway may stave that off for a little while longer than a field with a larger LF.
Top 6. One of the authore said the top-6 are all AL. So the Rockies must be 7th.
It's a joke. They just don't have the talent to support that.
Their above average players are a 36-yr. old Ichiro, Felix, Lee (who's a FA after this season), Figgins and Guttierez. That's it. 5 above average players, and a mid-range farm system.
The Mariners look like an 85ish win club, but that could certainly be enough quality to win the AL West.
You've forgotten about Milton Bradley, who is apparently a mortal lock to play 140 games, put up a 160 OPS+, and totally isn't going to do anything crazy or otherwise have any emotional issues that limit his playing time or effectiveness.
This is much worse,
Bulbous also tapered.
I'm pretty sure Cameron has refused to admit he was wrong about Cano.
Why does he need to admit it? It's plainly obvious.
Well, since they still employ Griffey, Bradley's gonna have to play in the field quite a bit.
Combine his fielding, the likelihood that he misses 50 games, and the near certainty that he goes batshit insane at some point, I have a hard time calling him an "above-average" player.
The fact that Carlos Silva was the best return the Cubs could get in a trade for hism is Exhibit A in my case.
He's not being discussed because he shares a name with Mike, but because post 14 linked to his take on the outfielder.
As for the hostility, I think post 16 summarizes that.
I've always wondered why he's caught so much flak for this. Yeah, he's clearly incorrect, but so what? He's not a scout, he's an analyst.
(It's funny that he couldn't recognize Cano's talents, but again, he's not a scout.)
I'm guessing it has a lot to do with the level of certainty expressed, and the thoroughness of the rip-job.
Seconded. Cameron is just like any other Primate in my book and I try to keep each thread distinct. No point in carrying over grudges from other topics/threads.
I think that's the plan, yes.
He played in 117 last year. And, you can't really carry a PH in the AL with 12 man pitching staffs.
Besides, there's no other LF on the active roster besides Bradley. Saunders was sent down. Unless they plan on giving Eric Byrnes 100+ starts in LF. Which seems even worse than starting Griffey at DH.
I don't get all the love for this team. They have some really bad players in major roles.
Shooty, have you ever had an exchange with him here or on USS Mariner?
He's way more snarky and obnoxious than your typical Primate. The condescension level is out of the ball park. Plus he has a nice little posse of sycophants at USS Mariner who'll always chime in to belittle you for disagreeing.
My issue isn't with Cameron, its with the recent way over the top praise that the Seattle GM has gotten for doing nothing but making a few stat head approved moves. Marchman ranked him 5th and now Seattle is being ranked as a top 6 organization with a mediocre Major League team and farm system.
Hey, I had your back in that Jose Lopez for John Danks thread! But I've had threads when you and I have gone toe to toe. If you carry the animosity around you don't get to enjoy what other people have to offer and Cameron is a sharp guy and often makes insightful points.
BTW, now that my travelling is done I'm up for beers anytime.
With that said, I think the organizational rankings are crazy. The Cardinals are 10th? Please.
As for (Mike) Cameron, he'll probably get to 300 homers/300 steals/1,000 RBI, so I could see him picking up a few votes, particularly if he gets a ring in Boston. Nice career, but obviously not a HoFer.
I can see this, but I'm withholding criticism because as a Warriors fan, I'm about to slaver irrational praise on any idiot who can scrap together 400 million to buy the team from Cohan. I figure the unnatural praise for Jack Z. is just a symptom of Bavasi induced shell shock.
I think instead of putting together Ikea furniture tonight I'll get a 6-pack and go through Dayn's archive with a fine-toothed comb...
As to David Cameron, in my admittedly limited interactions with him, I can't say that I've ever had any problems (although I do think that the Lopez/Danks thing was incredibly wrong).
Performance, as well as general trends (and with some considerations of costs). I'd also put the Cards in the top 5.
If Dayn interacted with critics the way Cameron does, he'd have more people sifting through the archives to haul out his more idiotic pronouncements. It really shouldn't be that hard to figure out why Cameron gets more of this than your typical online writer (though probably not much more than your typical mainstream writer).
BTW, now that my travelling is done I'm up for beers anytime.
Oh, I don't ignore him, he writes a lot of could stuff. He also gets held to a little higher standard since he does this professionally.
But, I'll call him on his BS anytime, just like I would with any Primate, and will probably mock him a little more, b/c of the condescension.
What days are good for beers? This week is a little tough b/c of Good Friday, but next week is wide open.
The gf loves Ikea and I am incredibly cheap.
As you should. I guess I'm just arguing against preemptive strikes. Wednesday?
What bothered me was not that's he was wrong (hell we'll all wrong frequently) but the "You don't now how to analyze players, I'm the professional sabremetrician" attitude.
Admittedly, this probably comes as much from the USS Mariner amen corner, as it does from Dave. He is OK to deal with on BBTF (probably b/c he knows he'll be called out/pilloried if he isn't) but pretty insufferable on his home turf.
It is amazing though that a sabremetric site could be so closedminded to anything not emanating from Dave/DMZ. I was brutalized for questioning the wisdom of the Figgins/Lopez switch. If you don't agree with their gurus, you're deemed an idiot.
I wouldn't do this to prove he's a bad analyst. (I don't read him enough to say; although his comments in the Lopez/Danks thread here were awful analysis). I picked out one post because I thought it was funny. I'd do it to people who I liked too, like Dan and his Lastings Milledge career projection.
Off the top of my head ...
- I once said Chris Carpenter would never be anything more than a fourth starter for the Cardinals (happily wrong about that one.)
- I declared from the mountaintop that Alfonso Soriano would never hit at the highest level.
- I ripped the Yankees for not sticking with D'Angelo Jimenez.
- I predicted greatness for Joe Kennedy (RIP).
- I openly doubted Hanley Ramirez's ability to produce in the majors, and this was after seeing him in person as a minor leaguer.
This, of course, is but a spare sampling.
Performance, as well as general trends (and with some considerations of costs). I'd also put the Cards in the top 5.
Agreed. I realize they've got a weak farm system right now, but they've skated around a weak farm system for most of the last decade and still won. The roster this season is also heavily homegrown.
I was way, way, way wrong on what Branyan would end up getting. Sorry everyone!
Absolutely. Every interaction where someone suggests he may be mistaken is met with this type of condescension.
It is amazing though that a sabremetric site could be so closedminded to anything not emanating from Dave/DMZ. I was brutalized for questioning the wisdom of the Figgins/Lopez switch. If you don't agree with their gurus, you're deemed an idiot.
And this. USS Mariner is a quasi-cult. Insightful at times, but nonetheless a cult.
I've said it before, I'll say it again...you are one mean Canadian.
Bay was -13 runs in URZ, and Ellsbury was -18 in 2009, or -31 runs combined. Let's say UZR was pessimistic, and on the upside they were only -15 runs combined last year. Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF should be +10-15 in UZR combined this year or possibly even more. The defensive swing between 2009 and 2010 should therefore range between +25-45 runs. Cameron was only a little over 20 runs worse than Bay with the bat last year.
Yes. Amazing the difference between BBTF and USSM. Or even if you only want to compare to a single team site, RLYW.
I was taken aback by MHS's certainty that the signing was a "blunder", considering the vast defensive difference between Cameron and Bay. I remembered the article on Fangraphs (a site that loves its UZR, which also gets love as a defensive metric around here), and linked it.
I had no idea it was like posting a Sarah Palin article on world geography.
I thought carrying grudges was the whole point of the internet.
Is that even possible? or legal?
Isn't the more spacious right field the more difficult field to play than left field? If Ellsbury is a legitimate centerfielder with a centerfielder's arm, why not move him to right and Drew to left, where patrolling less ground might also help to keep Mr. Glass in the game.
Or is Drew just that much better a fielder/thrower than Ellsbury, so as to make it a bad idea?
The problem is that he doesn't really have that kind of arm. It's not as bad as Johnny Damon's, but baserunners would go wild on him in right.
Drew has a much better arm than Ellsbury (which means he has an average arm), and UZR likes him a lot out there.
I dunno, here we have a thread where a link to Cameron's analysis of Mike Cameron vs Jason Bay has turned into people venting or joking about how David Cameron was terribly wrong several years ago about players like Cano and D'Angelo Jimenez, about trading Jose Lopez for Danks, and for leading a quasi-cult. You can say that his arrogant stance encourages stuff like this, but I'd probably get to be bafflingly defensive if I was constantly confronted with Garvey-esque heel heat on a board like this.
He'd join a team, play well, and the team couldn't wait to get rid of him. Wonder what his issues were...
Have I just been insulted?
Oh yeah, I ####### hate this Ikea ####. I'm supposed to drill this shelf thingy into the wall only they gave me no screws and no anchors for the screws...and the wall is made of ####### brick. What's Swedish for \"#### you" you megalith forest killing corporate ####### company not yet plugged by Jeff Francoeur because his publicist hasn't thought of it yet?
More tell us, Yoda.
What if this confluence of issues causes Mike to hit .149 the first six weeks of the season? Do the Red Sox stand fast? Sure, it's likely Mike EVENTUALLY gets his sea legs. But are the Sox a team that can handle that level of struggling given the nature of their competition?
I wish Mike Cameron the very best. Class act. But boy, he's a whisker away from seeing his offense go 'poof'.
Dumb ballplayer, both on the bases and with the glove. Also didn't like when people suggested that he needed to work harder, apparently.
I really thought the first sentence was about Dave, not Mike. It's not surprising that Maury and Dayn have no beef with Cameron, they're "Maury Brown" and "Dayn Perry." It's the lower primates that Cameron tends to tee off on. Honestly, I cannot think of any analyst who has more people who remembers the bad predictions that he makes. Yankees fans here, seemingly to a person, rail against his Robinson Cano assessment from 40 years ago. Heck, I can hardly contain myself from posting some stupid reference to Papelbon=Nagoette when his name gets mentioned. And why? Is it because he's soooo wrong, sooo often? No, it's because when you dare to disagree with him (on USSM, particularly), he berates you or bans you or does some other b-word to you. People tend to remember that.
Not fifteen minutes ago I just finished putting up some wall shelves from IKEA. (I'm a big Leksvik fan) They don't give you screws or anchors because you're suppose to provide your own, based on the type of wall you have to put it in. Seriously, you're upset with IKEA because you're trying to install something into a brick wall? Leave IKEA alone!!!
Rather, David Cameron holds himself out as especially smart and insightful, when in reality he's no better a baseball writer than you or I or any other reasonably intelligent primate. And he's sort of a jerk.
Oh yeah, since we're on the topic: NEVER ####### FORGET, EVER!
"I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.
I've seen Cano play a lot, and I'm not even sure he'd be a productive Triple-A player. Let's start with his defense; it's brutal. He has terrible footwork and simply lacks any kind of instincts around the bag. There's no way you want him playing up the middle. He might have the raw speed to not be awful in left field, but that's about as kind as I can be regarding his glovework.
Offensively, he's a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake. Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front. He's mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall. To add insult to injury, he's also a terrible baserunner.
In his prime, I think he could hit .280/.320/.400 while playing awful defense. Yipee."
The latter, on both accounts, kinda. As others have mentioned Ellsbury doesn't have a RF arm. It's more like a 2B arm, or maybe the arm of the 90-year-old guy throwing out the first pitch. (That said, he's still better than Damon.)
Ellsbury in CF had a lot of trouble on balls hit behind him. OK jump, bad routes, poor judgment, dogs and cats living together. He was magic going to his left or right, but on balls hit straightaway CF deep he had a knack for playing doubles into triples*. As the season wore on he played deeper to mitigate the problem, but that opened him up to shallow hits that even at his speed couldn't be caught. What makes RF in Fenway difficult, space-wise, is how deep it is. If he had problems in CF, they wouldn't be much better in RF.
LF - at Fenway - minimizes his weaknesses (arm, deep) while allowing him to use his strengths (lateral). With Ellsbury in LF Cameron might be able to play a little closer to RF than usual, and that helps RF, too.
I am honestly looking forward to their outfield defense this year. Never mind Scutaro/Beltre, who should also be good.
* The data might support this perception. 3B / (2B + 3B) for Boston pitchers was around 8% in 2009 vs. close to 6% in 2007 (back when Crisp was the regular CF, and was GG-worthy). League average was around 8% last year, vs. 9% in 2007. I say "might" because changes in staff 3B rate can be influenced by a lot of things.
I'm going to go ahead and have to disagree with you there. Mike's been having some problems with his TSP reports. When he played in San Diego he was appreciated by knowlegeable baseball fans, but I don't think he was appreciated by the majority. The majority did not appreciate his defense and the majority still look at K's and BA as the ways to judge a hitter. I suppose this could vary from city to city; San Diego is not exactly a hot bed of knowlegeable baseball fans. But, IMO, in San Diego he was underrated by the majority of fans.
Ikea.
Who are these alleged fans? I remember recurring talk about needing to move him out of Seattle because of all the Ks, but never a whole lot of it. He was generally admired as a team-oriented guy with a likable personality who made highlight reel catches. On the good M's teams of the early 2000s, he was behind Ichiro, Edgar and Boone in popularity, but Cameron was probably next in line. All in all, something of a fan favorite.
I'd be interested in the extent to which pitchers parks deflate the numbers that somebody like Cameron would put up. He Ks a lot which I'm pretty sure he'd do anywhere. With all those Ks, his BA's not gonna be high anywhere. HR park factors would presumably have an effect but not necessarily a big one if most of his are no-doubters.
I've never thought about it before, but I wonder if TTO hitters are similar to Juan Pierre types in that parks don't necessarily effect them much. Presumably HR-killing caverns like Petco would have a big effect but I can see how it might not matter most of the time. That is, Cameron's career:
Sea 798 OPS
NYM 806
SDP 797
Mil 801
He did have one season in Cincy at 825 but, even if that wasn't a fluke, the difference probably should have been much bigger based on PFs (it was the lowest OPS+ outside of his early days in Chicago). A (LF) HR haven like Fenway might benefit him though.
More tell us, Yoda.
We live to argue and debate and snark. It's what we covet.
On USSM any meaningful disagreement with the site authors (no matter how well argued) is treated with derision. No just by said authors, but by a small posse of sycophants. You are basically told you're an idiot who doesn't know anything about baseball analysis.
He made a deal with the Devil to sacrifice the Mariners' historic 2001 season in exchange for mind control over his minions.
Assuming you are talking about the writer, it's because he writes assertively. There isn't much (if any) hedging in his stuff. That's going to draw attention, both positive and negative. There's that line from the Howard Stern movie, that people who didn't like him listened for longer than people who liked Stern.
In the case of the Brewers, they were happy with Cameron, but their pitching was so awful last year that they had to put all available dollars into pitchers. Cameron could easily provide a better value than the money that was spent on pitchers this year, but Melvin just felt that the pitching needed to be upgraded, even if it wasn't the most efficient way to do so.
As far as fandom, we're all just relating our experiences and the fans that we know. Among the netizens of Brewerdom, Cameron certainly had his fans who appreciated good CF defense combined with a good eye and power. But there were plenty of fans, online, at the park, on the radio, who just saw a .250 hitter who struck out a lot and could cite that one ball that Cameron missed that one time, so really how good a defender could he be?
Perhaps you are right. My perspective is probably skewed by spending a lot of time on websites that do appreciate him. I guess what I should have said is that although some fans may think he sucks because of Ks, many people are aware of the positive things he brings to a team.
This is a good point. I think I overstated my point. However, I do think Cameron became (to some extent) a fan favorite in Milwaukee because of the jersey-untucking thing he started.
I guess what I'm saying is that Cameron seems to me to have been considered to be at least a good player by the vast majority of people who follow baseball, including front office people (judging by playing time, multi-year contracts, trades and awards). That contrasts with truly underrated players like Russell Branyan who rarely even get a chance at regular playing time. Anybody who Ks a lot will always have detractors but Cameron has never been benched because of his shortcomings or cut or forced to take a minor league deal or anything. He's been a full-time player for the past 10 seasons, on teams that were generally contenders. He's kind of like the Sam Cassell of baseball (except Sam's strength was offense). He moves around a lot but his teams are good and he's always one of the best few players on the team. Just like Sam, a lot of people don't like him but also like Sam, quite a few people do.
As an extension of that, it was often mentioned that he was a leader, positive clubhouse influence, and consummate pro, which may have mollified the strikeouts-are-bad complaints from the talk radio crowd.
I have to say, I have some sympathy with this crowd. In my brain, I know that strikeouts are just another kind of out, but they just look worse than BIP outs and there's something more frustrating about a guy flailing at a third strike like they don't know what they're doing. At least if you make contact you don't look totally pathetic. And I'm sure Cameron's an awesome fielder, but that doesn't translate to tv very well either. You'd see the ball off the bat and then cut to Cameron smoothly getting into position and making the 'easy' catch. I suspect watching Cameron my brain will have some arguments with my gut about whether he sucks or is awesome or what.
I do too, to some extent. Part of the fun of following sports is being able to make knee-jerk reactions in the heat of the moment. I never particularly cared about Ks but there are other things that annoy me even though I know they aren't a big deal (or might even be beneficial to the team). That's one of the bad things about the increasingly good defensive metrics. It now turns out that (some) scrubs are actually good (or, not awful) players. Somehow it removes a bit of the fun of having a whipping boy on your favorite team if you have to do research to see who it should be. It's a whole new paradigm, one I'm not totally accustomed to.
Part of it this: strikeouts SHOULD be worse than other outs. When a guy goes up to the plate his objective is to hit the ball hard. The exact opposite of that is missing it entirely. But because of the sport's vagaries, missing it entirely isn't any worse than many other kinds of contact, and a tendency to swing and miss often (when coupled with other traits) is actually a good thing for some types of hitters.
Psst: Corey Hart.
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