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1. Dr. Vaux Posted: June 27, 2006 at 12:56 PM (#2077453)Tampa Tribune: Rays May Trade Hall, Hendrickson
I sure hope this article was sarcastic. If Colletti actually goes through with this...
I wouldn't be too surprised if Georgie boy wants to get Novarro back if he hears good things from his Tampa mafia.
No kidding. Apparently, Kazmir just became the youngest 10-game winner since Greg Maddux won 10 games in 1988 with the Cubs. And the Cubs were decent that year, weren't they?
The thing is - the Dodgers need a decent catcher for AAA in case there's an injury - but Hall doesn't fit the bill.
"The Devil Rays completed a trade Tuesday they feel will make them younger and better at two positions – acquiring catcher Dioner Navarro and pitcher Jae Seo from the Dodgers for Toby Hall and lefthanded starter Mark Hendrickson.
The Rays also will send $1-million to the Dodgers and will get back a minor-league player to be named later. The deal is expected to be announced at 3 p.m. Tuesday."
http://www.sptimes.com/blogs/devilrays/
2004: 183 ip, 211 hits, 20 hr, 87/46 k/bb 4.81 ERA
2005: 178 ip 227 hits, 24 hr. 89/49 k/bb 5.90 ERA
2006: 89.667 ip, 81 hits, 10 hr, 51/34 k/bb, 3.81 ERA
Seo's peripherals, THIS YEAR, are really no worse than Hendricksons- Seo's problem has been the spike in his HR rate. He was better than Hendrickson prior to 2006, and HRs aside he'd still be better. Assuming (and boy is that dangerous) that the HR spike is just a transitory thing, he'll probably out pitch Hendrickson going forward.
And the DRays get Navarro too, for Toby Hall...
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2502089
By the end of 2007, the Devil Rays everyday lineup could look like this:
CA - Dioneer Navarro
1B - xxxxx
2B - Jorge Cantu
SS - BJ Upton
3B - Wes Bankston
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - Rocco Baldelli
RF - Delmon Young
DH - Elijah Dukes (?)
SP - Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Chuck Tiffany, Jeff Niemann, xxxxx (eventually Wade Townsend, maybe)
You have to be impressed with the job the new regime in Tampa is doing. If they can flip Lugo for a potential impact bat at 1st or make a run at a big bopper this offseason or next, they could potentially could contend, even in the AL East.
1B - xxxxx
2B - Jorge Cantu
SS - BJ Upton
3B - Wes Bankston
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - Rocco Baldelli
RF - Delmon Young
DH - Elijah Dukes (?)
Do you think they'd put Young or Dukes at 1B? Because Upton's D isn't going to cut at shortstop, he's going to have to be a corner player or he's going to kill them. He practically screams out Gary Sheffield, you'd think someone would have figured that out by now. And I hear Bankston plays 3B like Aubrey Huff plays 3B. He ought to be groomed for 1B unless they plan to convert Upton or one of the outfielders. That infield defense would sink the team, probably -60 runs between the three of them. I see the best deployment of resources as:
Navarro
Bankston
Cantu
SS
Upton
Crawford
Baldelli
Young
Gomes
Dukes can plug in if one or two of the other OF is moved for pitching or hurt (if two, Upton --> OF/DH and use Wigginton at 3B or get another glovey MI and shift Cantu to 3B).
http://tinyurl.com/nkyv6
Is this something you think he can keep up?
David Pinto of Baseball Musings inspired me to look this up with this post:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/015725.php
On the other hand, with hitting like that, they're not worried as much about preventing runs, perhaps.
It will probably be fun to be Andrew Friedman the next few years.
C Navarro
1B Bankston
2B Cantu
SS Brignac
3B Upton
LF Crawford
CF Baldelli
RF Young
DH Gomes
The Dodgers have Martin, sure, who's less than a year older than Navarro. Martin's minors OPS averaged 810 entering the year, with BB>K and decent power potential. Great defense, too.
Navarro had a 755 OPS in the minors (with greater variance), good plate discipline, and less power shown through 2005. Solid defensively.
Hendrickson, outside of 2006, is a 5th starter at best. Even his best AAA season had only 6.65 K/9IP.
Seo is similarly mediocre, but with better WHIP, K-rate, and other peripherals. 2 years younger, too.
Hall is nearly worthless.
So unless the point really was the money (and $1M is chump change in a large market, especially when Coletti gave bundles to Furcal), making the deal to acquire another catcher doesn't even allow the possibility that they're "committing to Martin" by this deal. And it's a downgrade at both positions.
If the goal was to acquire pitching, surely they could have gotten someone better than Hendrickson. At the very least, explore the 3-way trade options to get a pitcher from a third team, sending them one of the Rays' outfielders and Navarro to the Rays. THAT at least isn't flat out STUPID, like this deal.
More likely than not that will be Bankston, Sean. The transition to 3B isn't going very well for Bankston and with Longoria in the system and Brignac projected to require a position change I'm pretty sure Bankston is just a 1B in the majors.
The Mets have shown interest in re-acquiring Seo, 29, whom they traded to the Dodgers along with reliever Tim Hamulack last January for relievers Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll.
I suppose, but what realistic options were out there?
If this was the best trade option the Dodgers could have negotiated between now and July 31st (which seems extremely unlikely), than just keeping Navarro would be a far better option. Yes, TB will be his 4th organization, but he's only 22 and has played only 80 games in the majors. He seems like a terrific prospect. What's wrong with having 2 good young catchers on your roster?
How's this:
...
SS Brignac
Everything I've heard about Brignac says that he'll need to move to 3B. And there's no way he'll be starting by late 2007. That would fit the Sheffield plan though ... bring up Upton to play 3B, then move him to the OF when Brignac is ready.
Plus while he's hitting alright it's not like he has a 1.000 OPS in Durham or anything. I think it's a good idea to let him stay there. Eventually they'll have to give up on the idea of him playing SS though unless he really gets better.
There have been cases of guys making 50 errors in the Sally league and getting past it. No player has gone on to play SS in the majors after going through half as many years of Upton-style butchery, without improving at all. I submit that the ability to field and throw a ball cleanly is a tool. And Upton doesn't have it. He's a longshot to even field the position like Offerman, and the sooner he's moved the sooner he can resume his development.
The problem is that while Hendrickson is at 10.9% this year - he was at 22.1% last year and 19.1% in 2004. This year's numbers scream fluke, iow.
You're saying it's unlikely there wouldn't be better deals by July 31, but give me some suggestions then! KC and Pitt could use Navarro but have no available pitching better than Hendrickson, and I don't see any other middle-of-the-pack teams so bereft of catching that they'd take a flyer on a raw talent who's essentially already out of options.
I'm with the echo chamber that Tampa the better of the deal, I'm just saying this isn't as bad a deal for LA as some are making it out to be, mostly because I'm not rating Navarro as highly as others.
Seems that Ned wanted a starter in the worst way, and that's how he got one.
By waiting until close to the July 31st deadline, LA could:
a) Get a better reading on whether Hendrickson is really this good
b) Play TB, KC, and Pitt against each other
c) See what else they might have to offer other than starting pitching; prospects with options would be better this deal looks to be
The issue remains: why the urgency to move Navarro? Maybe he won't pan out, but 22-year-old catchers with his kind of OBP ability aren't exactly easy to find.
If Hendrickson is any better than Seo, it won't be by much, and at any rate it rates a "big whoop." I'd have laughed at this offer from TB.
I agree with your general point, but I have a nit to pick. I attended a Nick Neugebauer rehab start in Indianapolis a few years ago. NN walked a couple to load the bases, then gave up a grand slam. The crowd started booing and a group of kids sitting nearby started chanting "We want a pitcher not a bellyitcher."
SP - Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Chuck Tiffany, Jeff Niemann, xxxxx (eventually Wade Townsend, maybe)"
Edwin Jackson is D-U-N .
Its terrible, hes gotten Dewon Brazleton disease or something (minus the personal issues)
Yeah yeah. I suppose the difference in crowd size isn't all that different between Durham and Tampa Bay too ;)
Still, I can't imagine that minor league crowds have much "memory." The games I've been to, most people are there with their kids for the fireworks and cheap hot dogs, and don't even know which big league team the opponent is part of. So sure maybe you get a mild booing by 2,000 people, but your mistakes don't become lead grafs on the Boston Globe or something.
Anyway, Upton's defense is just too sh***y at this point to merit big league consideration at SS. He's going to have to get better or switch positions.
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