When his own team has the faith in him to let him bat against lefty's on a regular basis, and he manages to at least hit .240/300/400 against lefty's then come back and talk to me about his star potential. Until that happens, he is a lefty platoon first basemen who is seriously underperforming expectations, and one game does not change that.

Shoewiz, we'll disagree here, but over the next 3 years, I'd much rather have Choi at 1B and Quentin in RF than Green in RF and Quentin in Detroit.

Choi's lefty/righty splits are without question greatly exagerated by sample size. Anecdotes aren't worth much, but Durazo's situation before 2003 seems very comparable to Choi's (with the exception that Durazo is a better hitter than Choi.)

I forsee darkness and suffering...

And ############# in this thread...

Choi would get more ABs vs lefties if he wasn't in a 4 man rotation at 1B.

then come back and talk to me about his star potential

Nobody said anything about star potential. You're absolutely right that he'll never turn into a star without demonstrating an ability to hit left-handers. But that doesn't change the fact that, even if he never improves from the numbers he's already got, he would be a decent player. It's possible he won't improve, but it's also possible that he will.

As Jim said, he has a lot of talent. Even if he is never anything more than a mediocre hitter against left-handers and plays a pretty strict platoon role, he could be a very valuable player. Think Trot Nixon in 2003.

over the next 3 years, I'd much rather have Choi at 1B and Quentin in RF than Green in RF and Quentin in Detroit.

I don't understand this comment at all. When did AZ have a chance to get Choi? How would Quentin be going to Detroit?

Eric Chavez could never hit lefties, that's what held him back from becoming a star.

Seriously, though, Choi will probably hit lefties. Supposedly he hit them in the minors. He's still 26 years old, a car with massive power, and should improve. Coming into this year, his career OPS+ in the Majors is 107, Chad Tracy's is 91. Yet DBack announcers go on and on about Chad being a future batting champion, while Choi is considered a failure.

I've got this sudden itch to play the race card.

Nobody said anything about star potential.

Actually, this is what the article said:

DePodesta has insisted since acquiring Hee-Seop Choi from Florida at last year's trading deadline that Choi had the potential to be a major-league star,

Maybe he is puttin words in Depos mouth. Highly probable. But my comment was in response to the statement in the article.


Eric Chavez could never hit lefties, that's what held him back from becoming a star.


Wow...did you even think about this comment before typing it? I think Chavez has some defensive value at 3b, don't you? Might that have had something to do with the A's playing him through his struggles against lefty's? What defensive value does Choi have at 1b? Please, don't throw a guy out there just to make a counter point. This is not even remotely close to being a comparable situation. If Chavez was a first baseman of no special repute with the glove, do you really think Oakland gives him that many at bats vs lefty's over the years?

Furthermore, you yourself bring up the age issue. Chavez is only one year older than Choi. has played in almost 900 games and has close to 4000 plate appearances. It would be one thing if Choi were 22 or 23 and struggling to hit lefty's but killing righties. But he is 26, can't hit lefty's at all, and is inconsistent vs. righties.

Choi will NEVER be much more than a platoon first baseman. He could still be pretty valuable, maybe even putting up a couple of Ken Phelps type seasons.

But he is never ever going to be a star in this league. Lets just put that to rest and move on.

I've got this sudden itch to play the race card.

Well the language barrier probably prevents Choi from becoming the clubhouse cut-up who gets the benefit of the doubt. I wouldn't call it racism that his personality hasn't won anyone over because it's pretty likely that the media hasn't had a real chance to get to know him.

His numbers this year aren't knocking anybody's socks off but I don't see any reason to panic about having him as your first baseman.

I've got this sudden itch to play the race card.

Chris, my wife is Taiwanese, and all three of my sons were born in Taiwan. I hope you don't think my criticisms of Choi have anything to do with race.

I don't understand this comment at all. When did AZ have a chance to get Choi? How would Quentin be going to Detroit?

I meant that, given a choice between Choi and Green, I'd take Choi. A purely hypothetical situation, you see. And how would Quentin be going to DET? You obviously don't know enough about Joe Jr.

Chris, my wife is Taiwanese, and all three of my sons were born in Taiwan. I hope you don't think my criticisms of Choi have anything to do with race.

Wasn't directed at you, was directing it at the Tracy>>>>Choi people.

Also, Taiwanese Wife?

My father made the same mistake. It's costing us both a lot of pain.

What defensive value does Choi have at 1b?

A lot, he is an excellent defensive player, though there is less opportunity to have an impact at that position, and a plus baserunner for that position as well (despite what Ms. Zelasko thinks).

OPS understates his talent level because his low batting average undercuts his SLG which is only .428 career. He's actually posted an ISO of just under .200 which isn't that bad. He's got a career eqa of .273 which is nothing to be ashamed of. I would be very interested in learning what his SLWTS is.

Also, Taiwanese Wife?

My father made the same mistake. It's costing us both a lot of pain.

Oh....I've been suffering for 22 years now!!! LOL

What did you do in Taiwan shoewizard?

I don't know where to find LHP/RHP splits for the minors but I did find this comment by BPro:

"Choi manhandled lefties in the PCL, slugging almost .550 against them vs. .501 against right-handers."

Before we get too caught up in his poor performance against LHP at the major league level, let's remember that he's only had 57 ABs. So far this season, 61 ABs is telling us that Neifi Perez is a .393 hitter with an OPS of 1.029.

What did you do in Taiwan shoewizard?

Psst... meet your biological father.

Pops, I just have to say it. Choi and Clayton are two sides of the same coin. Now before everyone gets their panties in a bundle, hear me out.

Pure "saber guys" have their favorites, guys like Choi, or Nick Johnson. Pure "traditionalists" have their favorites, for example guys like Clayton.

I think both "sides" go through such extreme pains to make their case that their guy is better than everyone is giving them credit for, that the arguements just become superflourous. In their own ways, they are both mediocre at best.

I personally am not "pure" anything. I like to challenge both sides. No one has a monopoly on the truth. To me though it is simply reaching to assert that Choi is better than medicore as a first baseman. Since he is already 26, there has to be considerable doubt that he will ever be much more than medicore, except for maybe a couple of seasons yet to come.

Psst... meet your biological father.

I aint got no cracker blood in me, biatch!

I've got this sudden itch to play the race card.

If he was a small, quick asian outfielder I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. But you can't trust a big lumbering asian guy.

What did you do in Taiwan shoewizard?

his wife?

What did you do in Taiwan shoewizard?

uh....shoes!!! LOL.

Footwear sourcing and manufacturing. Running overseas liason and sourcing offices for major US importers.

Footwear sourcing and manufacturing. Running overseas liason and sourcing offices for major US importers.

So burning our villages and defiling our women?

I'm KIDDING. Man the PC police is really uptight around here these days.

To me though it is simply reaching to assert that Choi is better than medicore as a first baseman.

If by mediocre you mean something approximating league average, then I'll agree with you. He doensn't need to be a star for the Dodgers to condsider the man an asset. He's a very cheap solution at first base which allows LA to use financial resources elsewhere. I don't consider him a star or a star in the making, though I think there's still an opportunity for him to break out. I would not, however, consider him a liability at all.

I've got this sudden itch to play the race card.

It's more the "slow lumbering guy" card. If he seemed more athletic, he would get more of a benefit of the doubt.

Either Suff is mocking me, or we are of a similar level of genius.

So far this season, 61 ABs is telling us that Neifi Perez is a .393 hitter with an OPS of 1.029.

You're right Pops. He only hit .371 in 62 ABs last year. :)

So burning our villages and defiling our women?

Well, I did not burn any villiages. Helped build a few in China though.

As for the defiling of women, before I got married, hell yeah, as many as I could!!

Choi will NEVER be much more than a platoon first baseman.

Shoe, the inclusion of "Seriously, though" after my Chavez comment was meant to indicate it was tongue in cheek.

I think Pops has pointed out the key point, which is no one knows how good Choi will be, because no one knows if he can hit lefties. He's had no opportunity to show it at the MLB level, while at the minor league level he did.

And at 26 he's still younger than what should be his peak years. In 2003 at age 24 he had a serious injury and still put up a .771 OPS. Last year with the Marlins he hit 15 HR in 281 AB and an .882 OPS in a pitchers park. Of course he followed that up with 62 horrible AB's with the Dodgers, but his OPS for the year was still over .800. Through his short career, he's shown he can get on base (career OBP .355 with a career BA of .236) and hit for power (27 HR in 645 AB).

He doesn't have to get much better to be a strong player. A .375 OBP with 30 HR might not make him a star, but he'd be pretty damn close. I think this year will go a long way towards showing what he can do.

He doesn't have to get much better to be a strong player. A .375 OBP with 30 HR might not make him a star, but he'd be pretty damn close. I think this year will go a long way towards showing what he can do.

Do you think he is very close to being able to post those numbers? I just don't. I guess we'll find out though.

So burning our villages and defiling our women?

This is a primey as far as I'm concerned.

Do you think he is very close to being able to post those numbers?

His translated stats for his time in FL last season were .278 .392 .504 in 270 ABs. Multiply that over a full season (or as full a season as the LH side of a platoon allows and he's pretty close to the 30 HR mark in a neutral stadium.

He was that player during his time with the Marlins. His failure in LA definitely raises some questions which we need more time to answer.

But if he is platooning, you can't just double it and get to 30 homers, can you?

Anyway, there is probably an equal chance you can point back to this thread in the future and tell me how wrong I was. I realize there are people alot smarter than me that have confidence in Choi. Not the least of whom is his boss.

But this is not a slam dunk or forgone conclusion that it is just a matter of time until Choi achieves what is expected of him in the Saber community.

Nick Johnson anyone???

But if he is platooning, you can't just double it and get to 30 homers, can you?

Which is why I think the combination of more playing time (though limited to what he would get in a platoon role) in addition to translating for a neutral park would get him in the 30 homer territory.

But this is not a slam dunk or forgone conclusion that it is just a matter of time until Choi achieves what is expected of him in the Saber community.

I don't know what the saber community expects him to do. Please don't mix whatever Joe Sheehan et alii think of Choi's future with what I've said. I think he's a decent player that gets a lot of undeserved guff for his performance. Anyone who thinks Werth should have the full-time job is delusional.

Do you think he is very close to being able to post those numbers? I just don't. I guess we'll find out though.

I do. Watching Choi with the Cubs, I saw a guy who was extremely patient, who hit to all fields with authority, and who made his outs either by striking out (typically on deep counts) and line drives. I don't know if other Cubs fans can back me up on this, but it didn't seem to me like Choi grounded out or popped out too often. He always made good contact.

I seriously do not know why teams seem to give up on him. He hit well in his first cuppajoe with the Cubs, and was doing fine until his concussion in 2003. Then Baker took the chance to say, "Screw developing the young guy," and went with Karros all the time. Florida gave up Derrek Lee to get Choi, and even though he hit well for them, too, as a second year player, they seemed to give up on him and were all to happy to trade him away, although I'll admit to not being as up on his usage patterns with the Marlins as I was with the Cubs. Then he absolutely hit for crap with the Dodgers (loss of confidence?), and it would seem that based on that and not on any of his previous MLB or minor league numbers, L.A. has decided he's a platoon player.

To be sure, Choi's development is behind schedule. But that has nothing to do with his skills and everything to do with a) losing at least one minor league season to injury, maybe two (Cubs minor league fans, help me out here!) and b) and organization that choose not to rush him at all, going with the likes of Karros, Ron Coomer, and Matt Stairs before giving him a shot.

My feeling is that if more or less left alone and allowed to play everyday against both righties and lefties, Choi will develop into a quality first baseman, at least as good as Derrek Lee. Perhaps Choi's great misfortune has been to land on teams in the middle of contention that have managers who prefer veterans in a pennant race rather than letting the young guys play. Maybe if Choi had come up on a team like the Pirates or the Red he'd have shown he can play by now and would already be looked at as a valuable commodity.

Choi gives interviews without a translator, although I've never heard him give an interview on TV or radio.

I don't think Nakamura speaks much English, but he seems to have a more effusive personality. But he was also a big star in Japan before coming out to the States.

Nick Johnson anyone???

Isn't Nick Johnson more like JD Drew than HS Choi?

Choi lost about half of 2001 with a broken wrist.

Choi gives interviews without a translator, although I've never heard him give an interview on TV or radio.

I've never heard him either, but it's my understanding that learning English was a priority for Choi. IIRC, while in the minors he stayed in the U.S. for much of the off-season and went without a translator as soon as he felt he could get by without one.

Yeah, I know he missed time due to injuries in the minors, but is his wrist still bothering him? Assuming that's not the case, the Nick Johnson comp really doesn't work, since his problems have been injuries once he reached the majors. Maybe shoewizard should've mentioned Jack Cust instead, although "Cust" is now a bad word in the sabr community.

Actually, this is what the article said:

DePodesta has insisted since acquiring Hee-Seop Choi from Florida at last year's trading deadline that Choi had the potential to be a major-league star,

Oops. Didn't see that. I assumed you were responding to Jim. My bad.

I say Choi ends the season with an OPS+ in the 110-115 range. That probably puts him in about the middle of the pack for first basemen, and as far as I know his defense is neither spectacularly good or bad.

FWIW (not much), PECOTA is calling for a .294 EQA. That seems pretty optimistic to me.

Maybe if Choi had come up on a team like the Pirates ...

If Choi had come up with the Pirates they would have turned him into a pitcher.

Happy Base Ball

Maybe shoewizard should've mentioned Jack Cust instead, although "Cust" is now a bad word in the sabr community.

But he's got 4 HR already this year! (And 29 K in 66 AB)

Choi = Mike Epstein.

The biggest question mark I have about Choi is that everywhere he's gone in the majors, he's seen as strictly a platoon player. That it happened with Dusty is maybe not surprising, but McKeon's damn sharp and he never saw him as anything else. Either DePo or Tracy (who has demonstrated a good use of platoons) or both see him as just a platoon player. I'm fine with arguing that one organization is wrong about a player. But three? Including two managers (McKeon, Tracy) and two GMs (Hendry, DePo) I think are very good?

(OK, it's too soon to say DePo's very good. And I probably shouldn't diss Beinfest as much as I want).

Even if those organizations are wrong, given the power of reputation in baseball, I think there's almost no chance anyone will ever give him a chance to be more than that. So I doubt we'll even know if he can hit lefties at the major-league level.

And wouldn't you know it, this year he's not even walking (3 BB in 46 AB vs. RHP).

At this point, I'm thinking 250/375/500 is about his max and that's against RHP only. Throw in 25% of PAs against lefties even at an average platoon disadvantage (about 15% of OPS if I remember right) and you're looking at something like a 794 overall OPS. That's not too good for a 1B.

I like Hee Choi. Hope he does good.

Regarding the race/language/personality stuff, I heard Vin Scully a few days ago on a broadcast talking about Choi as a very popular member of the clubhouse, a kind guy who's friends with most everyone.

(This is also partially prompted by mention of Cust, who, according to most sources I've seen, is something of a tremendous prick.)

I wonder if Jason DuBois is headed down a similar career path as Choi. They don't have the same background in the minors (Choi was always a highly thought of prospect, DuBois made people notice him). But I see DuBois going through the same thing this year that Choi did with the Cubs in 2003.

It's a little different since DuBois is a righty, but Dusty hasn't let him see a RH pitcher yet this year (he let Choi see a couple in Chicago; he either started game 1 or 2 of 2003 against either Glavine or Lieter).

Or maybe Cubs fans (myself included) are just trying to draw parallels between the situations.

Choi's Comps heading into the season. (I know, useless data, but baudib started it!!

Similar Batters through Age 25
Compare Stats

1. Brian Hunter (984)
2. Wayne Belardi (974)
3. Sid Bream (962)
4. Don Mincher (961)
5. Gail Harris (960)
6. Steve Bilko (957)
7. Randy Bush (954)
8. Dick Gernert (952)
9. Mike Epstein (950)
10. Carlos Pena (949)

Is that the bad Brian Hunter or the really bad Brian Hunter?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/huntebr01.shtml

The bad Brian Hunter, who had a suprisingly long career.

Choi's top 10 PECOTA comps:

BPro uses more intricate criteria for generating a list of comps as used by PECOTA. I won't use the whole thing as it's subscriber material but it includes these names in the top 20:

David Ortiz
Jim Thome
Don Mincher
Tim Salmon
J.T. Snow
Darrell Evans
Mo Vaughn
Mike Epstein
Jason Thompson

There are some flameouts on there too but that's a pretty encouraging list.

Here's a passage on how PECOTA gets its comps:

"PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter's comparability:

Production metrics--in particular, batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, and a modified version of the Bill James speed score.

Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances.

Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height and weight.

Fielding Position. PECOTA doesn't require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the 'similarity' between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. (See additional discussion)."

To compare, here is how the Bill James comps are done:

"One point for each difference of 20 games played.
One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
One point for each difference of 15 hits.
One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
One point for each difference of 4 triples.
One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
One point for each difference of 25 walks.
One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage."

Interesting.

Well, it is definitely time to put up or shut for Choi...(ok, he isnt talking much, but you know what I mean)

Perhaps unfairly, but if he does not have a good season this year, it is going to be pretty hard to justify giving him alot of PT in the future.

Wok with Choi?

David Ortiz
Jim Thome
Don Mincher
Tim Salmon
J.T. Snow
Darrell Evans
Mo Vaughn
Mike Epstein
Jason Thompson

Choi and Bellhorn and some others have, I think, taught me the lesson to pay more attention to AAA (or minor-league) BA. Actually, it was probably Mike Emeigh who taught me. BA takes a sizeable hit when you move up and without a good BA, it's hard to post a really good OBP or SLG.

Choi's AAA BA was 265. That's gonna translate to a 230ish BA in MLB. And I'm not sure players like that ever get back to hitting 265 consistently.

Bellhorn's was a healthier 280.

Ortiz? 303.
Thome? 319.
Salmon? 347.
Snow? 307.

Adding another kinda similar hitter, Adam Dunn hit 329 at AAA (and 343 at AA that same season).

Clearly there are sample size, park effects, etc. that may move those comparisons more in Choi's favor. But these guys batted 40-50-80 points higher at AAA than he did.

Add in that a high K-rate makes a high BA and high SLG very difficult to achieve unless you hit the ball as well as Jim Thome and I do think his upside is average or just above.

So far, Choi has Kd in 30% of his ABs. To hit 250 and slug 500, he needs to hit 357 and slug 714 on BIP (including HR). With his walk rate, that would put him around 250/375/500 ... which is pretty good, but not outstanding. For his career so far, he's at 337/611.

Thome also Ks in about 30% of his ABs. He hits 404 and slugs 809 on BIP for his career. Hard to see Choi improving that dramatically.

And that's without considering that Choi's numbers are almost entirely against RHP. Over the last 3 years, against RHP, Thome's hit 414 and slugged 936 on BIP. Choi's at 347/640 -- a mere 300 points of slugging behind.

Posted by Lounge Assassin Ironchef Chris Wok on April 28, 2005 at 10:49 AM (#1295144)
I forsee darkness and suffering...

And ############# in this thread...


Chris, my wife is Taiwanese, and all three of my sons were born in Taiwan. I hope you don't think my criticisms of Choi have anything to do with race.

Dude are you the reincarnation of Nostradamus? How could you forsee that a Choi thread would bring out the classic "I sleep with a colored woman" justification that I'm forced to hear three times a week.

Oh shoot, was that on the main channel? I meant to only broadcast to other colored folks.

^^
That's a joke, BTW, I hope it doesn't bring out any white-folks with a chip on their should.

Oops, that's a joke too.

Anyway, I think it's ridiculous to make statements like "Choi has shown no ability to hit left-handers" Nobody can demonstrate ability sitting on the bench. Everytime he's gotten a decent number of PAs vs. Left Handers on any level, he has killed them.

If you think he needs to do something more to proof himself, maybe that thing is to kidnapped Jim Tracy's children until he gets put into the line-up because short of that I don't see how Babe Ruth could proof himself against Left-Handers given this playing time.

Good post, Walt. I'm a big fan of Choi, but that's best argument I've ever seen for why the stats don't necessarily suggest the kind of career I had hoped for from him.

One comment though. If you toss out his 2001 AAA season (when he was suffering from a wrist injury, and his skills suffered across the board), he had a AAA BA of .283--Mark Bellorn neighborhood anyway, if not Ortiz-Thome-Salmon-Snow. (And if you toss out his post-concussion 2003 numbers, it's .287.)

I'll admit that I don't know if his injury(ies) is really a valid reason to exclude his AAA numbers, even if it is an outlier.

Ultimately, that seems to be the fundamental point of conflict between most of Choi's defenders and critics when analyzing his career. Can one ignore all of his rough spots because he was injured (wrist, concussion) or messed with by his manager (Dusty)? Or do you acknowledge that all players go through stuff like that, and there's no valid reason to exclude the outliers?

But he's got 4 HR already this year! (And 29 K in 66 AB)

Here's a topic: Can Jack Cust be a productive major leaguer if he strikes out 300 times a season? What about Adam Dunn?

Seriously, this Choi topic is an interesting topic. Choi just seems to be someone who doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. The manager can't communicate with him easily. He's a big guy who isn't a slugger. He doesn't have the same frame of reference as all the other players. Might as well stop bothering with him and find someone more normal, like Juan Encarnacion. He may suck, but he doesn't require special treatment.

It kind of reminds me of the recent Michael Lewis NYTimes Magazine story. If Steve Stanley was four inches taller with the exact same stats, he might be in the major leagues right now. But to put him there would require the GM to explain his actions to so many people...and to go out on a limb and be second-guessed by literally trillions of idiots...it's not worth the bother.

However, if Steve Stanley hit 50 home runs, he would no longer need the benefit of the doubt. But as a marginal player, he becomes even more marginal by being unusual.

Just like the first openly gay player will have to at least be an above-average starter. If he turned out to be someone like Wes Helms or Jason Michaels, it wouldn't be worth the bother for the team to keep him.

That's a joke, BTW, I hope it doesn't bring out any white-folks with a chip on their should.



Did you call me E-X.

How could you forsee that a Choi thread would bring out the classic "I sleep with a colored woman" justification that I'm forced to hear three times a week

I hope its not the same woman.

Nobody can demonstrate ability sitting on the bench.

But one can show the ability to handle certain types of pitches in practice and on certain at bats. The line on Choi is difficulty with pitches on the hands and difficulty in hitting breaking pitches (from LH?). I have always concurred with the former.

If he has shown this deficiency, he should have to show progress toward correcting it before he just gives your team a lot of outs.

If you just want to ignore weaknesses until you have a large sample, then it could be said, that I should have a chance against LHP.

Ultimately, that seems to be the fundamental point of conflict between most of Choi's defenders and critics when analyzing his career. Can one ignore all of his rough spots because he was injured (wrist, concussion) or messed with by his manager (Dusty)? Or do you acknowledge that all players go through stuff like that, and there's no valid reason to exclude the outliers?

No, that is not the point of conflict. Choi is a Wes Helmsish player that is loved by statheads and overrated by DePo. DePo's biggest error was the Choi trade.

You can add and subtract numbers like Walt, you can watch him play, you can go by his recent performance, or do just about anything you want to arrive at the conclusion. He's just a middling platoon first baseman.

But he is in that Youkilis, Cust, family of players. He is a guy that a few statheads want to do an "I told you so" with, so he gets overrated.

Re: Article

The most interesting thing to me was an acknowledgement that DePo thinks that Choi is a star. I've been lambasted by real Primates who suggest that Choi was just a throw-in and I've misrepresented the Choi trade. I think this gives me a little support that DePo sought Choi, and thus exacerbates the mistake in the Choi move.

What I find interesting about Choi, is that even though he's been somewhat above average as a hitter (OPS+ of 106) and it's been over 20 years since the first Baseball Abstracts came out-
is that casual fans (and 97.5% of "baseball writers") think he is, and has been, utterly terrible, not mediocre, not garden variety bad, but sub-replacement level (I know casual fans don't use that term, but you get the gist)awful and doesn't belong on a major league roster.

If you asked the typical fan/ writer who would they rather have, 29 year old Shea Hillenbrand (career OPS+ of 98) or 26 year old Choi, over 90% would unhesitatingly say Hillenbrand. (and the fact that Hillenbrand's career April batting average- not including this year- is .334 is certainly part of it)

Did Choi's first half in FLA not happen? Did I just imagine that? The guy had a 130 OPS+ in ~350 PAs in FLA. Yes, he sucked in LA, but even with those PAs he had a 116 OPS+ in over 400 PAs, a pretty decent season. And yes, he's not a 21 year old kid anymore, but he's still just entering his prime. As an O's fan, I'd be pretty happy to have him at 1B.

Actually what happened for Choi was an incredible April of 2004. The rest of his career has been either average, or far below.

Just from a visual perspective, having watched most of the games this season, Choi looks like a terrible hitter. He tends to hit the ball near his hands, and he does have poor bat speed. He does have a good eye for the strike zone, it's just his swing is not the greatest. So basically it is a scout analysis versus a statistical analysis for Choi. I don't buy much into swings, and think strike zone is more important, so I think Choi deserves more ABs.

But is there some specific reason we should ignore his April 2004?

But is there some specific reason we should ignore his April 2004?

Is there some specific reason you should ignore his swing, or his last August...

I do not have the optimism that many of you have for Choi. Some have mentioned his lack of getting a chance with the Cubs, but he was their first baseman for four months and was putrid. The reason that Karros replaced him is because Karros was a more productive player at that time and the Cubs were in a pennent race. When they aquired Randall Simon, Choi had no value to them. With the Marlins, he destroyed the ball in April before reverting to the replacement player that he is. As a Dodger fan, I hope Choi does improve, so the Dodgers can replace Erickson instead of using their money to aquire a first baseman like Sean Casey or Mike Sweeny. I think that Choi's upside is around .240/.330/.400 whitch is OK, but he is almost as likely to hit .200/.280/.300.

But he is in that Youkilis, Cust, family of players. He is a guy that a few statheads want to do an "I told you so" with, so he gets overrated.

I would entirely agree with you...

...if Choi hadn't been a highly ranked prospect by Baseball America. He was the Cubs #1 ranked prospect in 2003, and was in the top 5 in the years before that. And this was in a deep system. The only knock on Choi in his prospect days was a fear that his big frame might lead to a weight problem as his career went on. This was a guy in the Nick Swisher family of players, a guy everybody loved, scouts and statheads alike. That's what makes his fall from grace so bewildering to me.

Some have mentioned his lack of getting a chance with the Cubs, but he was their first baseman for four months and was putrid. The reason that Karros replaced him is because Karros was a more productive player at that time and the Cubs were in a pennent race.

Well, that's one way of looking at it. Completely wrong, but it's still one way.

I think that Choi's upside is around .240/.330/.400 whitch is OK, but he is almost as likely to hit .200/.280/.300.

Is there a Primey category for most ridiculous statement?

I have also watched most Dodger games and I must say that Choi has the ugliest swing I have ever seen by a non-pitcher. Jason Werth may be the future at first base. He has had serious injury problems(measured quantity of injuries, not quality), and moving him to first base might help. All the Dodger prospects I've heard of are either pitchers, catchers, or middle infielders, so any replacement this season would come from outside the organization

That's a joke, BTW, I hope it doesn't bring out any white-folks with a chip on their should.



Did you call me E-X.

Yeah, I was too lazy to hike up the city hall stairs and set up the Backlasher signal.


But one can show the ability to handle certain types of pitches in practice and on certain at bats. The line on Choi is difficulty with pitches on the hands and difficulty in hitting breaking pitches (from LH?). I have always concurred with the former.

If he has shown this deficiency, he should have to show progress toward correcting it before he just gives your team a lot of outs.

If you just want to ignore weaknesses until you have a large sample, then it could be said, that I should have a chance against LHP.
This is a good point, but there is quite a difference in magnitude here, unless you have demonstrated a strong ability to hit LHP in the minor-leagues.

Stats are not infalliable--there are definitely players who can't make the transition from the high-minors to MLB as well as most other players.

But what's interesting about Choi is that he has transitioned well statistically from the high minors in suspect areas like BBs. Usually, the argument goes, that in the MLB if you can't hit, all the great plate discipline in the world can't help you.
That hasn't been the case with Choi--even in his horrendous periods, he's still walking at insane rates.

I'm not arguing that Choi is Ted Williams strapped to the pine. I just believe that given what he hit at 20-25, he is likely to be a good, useful, full-time player at 28 if given the playing time to develop.

There are definitely other first baseman in the league who perform worse than him, so if teams are properly valuing their players, he should have a home somewhere.

I've been lambasted by real Primates who suggest that Choi was just a throw-in and I've misrepresented the Choi trade

Are you talking about the Penny trade? The one where the Dodgers got a top starter, a valuable minor leaguer and Choi? And they were able to dump salary of one of the worst right fielders in baseball, as well as a catcher prone to horrible second half slumps (just before he slumped the marlins out of the playoffs) and due for an unreasonable arbitration award? And all they had to do was give up Mota, who they immediately replaced with Brazoban?

You're right, I can't understand why people criticize you for misrepresenting this deal.

< Is there some specific reason you should ignore his swing, or his last August...>

J.D. Drew started 0-25. I saw many of his AB's, he looked as bad as Choi. Players have slumps, but Choi's career totals so far say's he's comfortably better than the average hitter.

Dude are you the reincarnation of Nostradamus? How could you forsee that a Choi thread would bring out the classic "I sleep with a colored woman" justification that I'm forced to hear three times a week.


Can we hook this brother up with a Primey here?

Recognize.

No, that is not the point of conflict. Choi is a Wes Helmsish player that is loved by statheads and overrated by DePo. DePo's biggest error was the Choi trade.


No he's not. Seeing how somebody (Pops) had made this comment:

A lot, he is an excellent defensive player

Wrt to Wes Helms, you might as well put a pet rock at his position. Hitting value aside, Choi is a good fielder, and Youkilis so far appears to be a decent fielder too, but I'm not really qualified to evaluate taht, because a) I'm a Sox Homer b) Maybe I catch him on his good days, I don't know and c) Who here really is qualified to evaluate player skills anyway? I don't see anybody with coaching/scouting/playing jobs here anyway (W/ the exception of ChadBradfordWannabe)]

Besides, when did we start liking Wes Helms ANYWAY? This is a man with a career OBP of... .315! You ahve to have an OBP of at least over league average for us to like him!

I hope that Edwin Jackson or Chuck Tiffany can dominate the minors and replace Erickson in the rotation, so the Dodgers could aquire Sweeny, Casey, or maybe even Helton.

The main purpose of the trade that DePodesta made with the Marlins was to get Penny. The Dodgers already had Green at first and needed another starting pitcher.

Choi was injured in the Yankee series but I don't remember which game. That places his DL trip between June 6 and June 8. He sat out the rest of June so I'll just be lazy and use the pre-ASG and post-ASG stats:

Pre: .239/.379/.465 159 ABs
Post: .140/.229/.256 43 ABs

Karros:
Pre: .323/.386/.503 195 ABs
Post: .234/.273/.369 141 ABs

Both benefitted from platooning in the first half but I can't see how you can call Choi's line "putrid". After he came back he played poorly but never got much of a chance to do well. Karros numbers in the 2nd half were also putrid but Dusty doesn't seem to think anything of platoon splits (see his use of Remlinger) and Karros' numbers in the second half were screaming for Dusty to let Choi face righties.

Karros against RHP: .246/.286/.397

Dusty's mistrust of the young player necessitated the acquisition of the great Randall Simon.

Here's a topic: Can Jack Cust be a productive major leaguer if he strikes out 300 times a season? What about Adam Dunn?

No. Again, just some straigtforward math. If you K 300 times, assuming even 600 AB, you have to hit 500 in your other AB to hit 250 and you'll need to slug 1000 to get to an overall SLG of 500. And with 600 AB, you're not likely to have a lot of BB, so you're probably talking at best 325/500 even if you smack the ball like (almost) no one has smacked it before.

I looked at this once (never wrote anything up) and I think Ruth's 1920 was the best BIP year ever: 455/1026. Barry's had a couple years like that recently. McGwire too. So yeah, Babe/Barry/Mac might have been able to K 300 times in a season and still be useful, though not particularly good, players.

OK, if you could do something like that and play C or SS or at least 2B/CF, you'd be more than useful.

It's essentially theoretically possible to be a good hitter when K'ing in 50% of your ABs. My guess is that about 30%-35% is the practical max. That's still a lot.

The most interesting thing to me was an acknowledgement that DePo thinks that Choi is a star. I've been lambasted by real Primates who suggest that Choi was just a throw-in and I've misrepresented the Choi trade. I think this gives me a little support that DePo sought Choi, and thus exacerbates the mistake in the Choi move.

DePo's said repeatedly that Choi was a big part of the trade and anybody who thinks Choi was just a throw-in was dead wrong. Of course DePo liked him -- there's not really any reason not to, especially given what the Dodgers have gotten at 1B the last several years. But in that trade, DePo was only giving up an over-rated old C, a well below-average and over-rated OF, and a 30-year old reliever who'd been awesome for a couple years. Penny and Choi is good return for that even if Choi turns into nothing ... unless Penny also turns into nothing.

Also, that trade was just supposed to be the first step in landing Randy Johnson. Didn't work.

Even with his good April, Lo Duca's hit just 279/338/389 for FLA. Encarnacion has hit 247/323/411 (notice FLA has taught him to walk some) which is stinky for a corner OF. Mota's had an ERA of 4.06 (but good peripherals).

In short, how is that trade a mistake? Nothing the Dodgers gave up is likely to come back and bite them in the ass too bad and they still have the upside on this one.

Best argument I can see is that LoDuca was so over-rated that De Podesta should have gotten more (from the Marlins or somebody else).

The only fault I've seen so far in DePodesta is that he's overly fond of complicated deals but not that good at pulling them off. As I noted, the Marlins trade was supposed to be part of the equivalent of a 3-way with the D-Backs. In part of that mess, the Dodgers were also supposed to pick up Charles Johnson from the Rox (good thing they didn't). This offseason, he tried to find his way into the D-Backs/Yanks trade, only to pull out and screw things up ... only to essentially get back into it when they did make the deal.

Before anyone gets worked up that I only find one fault in DePo, I can't say I've found all that many positive traits yet. It's early yet.

In the majors, Choi's Isolated Power has consistently been around .200, and his Isolated Walks or whatever has consistently been around .120 or so. Assuming those are his true talent levels, his value depends on his batting average. If he hits .300, he should be around 300/420/500, which of course is very good; if he hits .200, he would be around 200/320/400, which is practically useless.

I think he's basically a .240-.250 hitter, based on his strikeouts. If he hits .240, that's a 240/360/440 line, which is okay. That's an OPS+ in the 110-115 range, probably.

In the meantime, Lo Duca's going to be around 100, most likely. Encarnacion hasn't shown a consistently ability to exceed the mid-90s, and in a good year gets up to 101. There are defensive questions to consider -- maybe a catcher whose a league average hitter is more valuable, ceteris peribus, than a 1B who's 10% better than average, I don't know.

Even if you put Lo Duca over Choi, a healthy Penny for the rest of the year will likely outproduce Lo Duca, and Choi should outproduce Encarnacion, even when you account for defense. There are a lot of ifs involved, and it's too early to pass ultimate judgment on The Trade.

If Choi's really a .220 hitter, then he's not very good, obviously.

It's essentially theoretically possible to be a good hitter when K'ing in 50% of your ABs.

That was supposed to say theoretically IMpossible.

If he hits .240, that's a 240/360/440 line, which is okay. That's an OPS+ in the 110-115 range, probably.

Last year he hit 251/370/449 in 415 PAs for a 116 OPS+. Is there any reason to think that was some sort of fluke?

"I think that Choi's upside is around .240/.330/.400 whitch is OK, but he is almost as likely to hit .200/.280/.300."

So basically you think he's played over his head so far in his major league career since your "upside" for him is an OPS 50 points lower than what he's actually done?

Again what I find interesting about Choi is that the perception of most about him is very different than what he has actually done. He's not the star some statheads thought he would be (or think he is) but he's definately played much better than others think he has.

Last year he hit 251/370/449 in 415 PAs for a 116 OPS+. Is there any reason to think that was some sort of fluke?

I don't, but he did hit .218 the year before (the concussion year) and hit .265 career in AAA. I think .250 is probably his max, maybe he can hit .260 in the majors at his peak.

As you can see, I'm a big Choi supporter, but I did want to point out one thing about the trade that I don't think is being framed well:

LoDuca is not as good as some people would have you believe, but he is still a 100 OPS+ catcher. Last year he made about $4 million. His career OPS+ is the same as Varitek, and he's the same age. (There are some other indicators that are in Varitek's favor, but I'm not trying to say they are just as good, just that Lo Duca in the same ballpark).

The trade was a great trade for LA--above league average starters making what Penny is making are precious resources. Unless Depo and Florida knew that he was hurt, I don't think that can be factored in to assessing Depo's actions. And Choi is a plus resource for what he provide and what he makes. Getting rid of Encar was a good move.

But LoDuca is a valuable player. We shouldn't pretend he isn't just because others overrate him or ridicule the trade.

I think Walt's given the most reasoned take on Choi's likely projection (definitely no star), but it's interesting how players like Choi are latched onto as test cases (for lack of a better term) for performance analysis. Pick an underperformer who either has attractive if not gaudy minor league stats and add your favorite metric (ironically based upon the same small sliver of stats that the negative projection is based upon and therefore dismissed).

I think the saber side of the argument gains value when the negatives aren't summarily dismissed (low BA, high Ks, mediocre fielding and baserunning) because it gives a more valuable analysis. Choi most likely will turn out to be a useful baseball player like so many guys who never quite get it done before age 27, but it doesn't seem likely he'll ever be the player he's been projected to be by the optimists. A platoon first baseman with a couple of 30 homer, 100 walk seasons in him.

A trade to the Rockies wouldn't hurt.

So basically you think he's played over his head so far in his major league career since your "upside" for him is an OPS 50 points lower than what he's actually done?

I just checked the stats on baseball-reference, and saw that is is not quite as bad as I thought. You have to admit that he sucked in 2003, but not as much as I thought. Most players when you look at their stats you basically get see that they're the player you remember watching (if you watched them in many games). Choi is one of those players who look worse than their stats, just like Armando Benitez or Adam Kennedy. Of course, I have seen him mostly with the Dodgers and a bit with the Cubs, not with the Marlins. And Florida is the only place Choi has succeded. I think that if somebody is advertised as a bad player, then people tend to remember their failures more than their successes and it takes an even bigger effort to be considered a good player again.

So basically you think he's played over his head so far in his major league career since your "upside" for him is an OPS 50 points lower than what he's actually done?

I just checked the stats on baseball-reference, and saw that is is not quite as bad as I thought. You have to admit that he sucked in 2003, but not as much as I thought. Most players when you look at their stats you basically get see that they're the player you remember watching (if you watched them in many games). Choi is one of those players who look worse than their stats, just like Armando Benitez or Adam Kennedy. Of course, I have seen him mostly with the Dodgers and a bit with the Cubs, not with the Marlins. And Florida is the only place Choi has succeded. I think that if somebody is advertised as a bad player, then people tend to remember their failures more than their successes and it takes an even bigger effort to be considered a good player again.

So basically you think he's played over his head so far in his major league career since your "upside" for him is an OPS 50 points lower than what he's actually done?

I just checked the stats on baseball-reference, and saw that is is not quite as bad as I thought. You have to admit that he sucked in 2003, but not as much as I thought. Most players when you look at their stats you basically get see that they're the player you remember watching (if you watched them in many games). Choi is one of those players who look worse than their stats, just like Armando Benitez or Adam Kennedy. Of course, I have seen him mostly with the Dodgers and a bit with the Cubs, not with the Marlins. And Florida is the only place Choi has succeded. I think that if somebody is advertised as a bad player, then people tend to remember their failures more than their successes and it takes an even bigger effort to be considered a good player again.

And while I'm a critic of DePo, that trade wasn't a bad one. It would have gotten a lot more credit if it hadn't been made while the Dodgers were in first place and it hadn't given up a couple of players who had added to that success.

Penny's another player who I think has been overrated as a number-one starter type. He looks to be an above-average pitcher who can provide stability to the middle of a rotation. Not a comp, but Kevin Millwood comes to mind, though that's giving him too much credit.

His comps like Don Robinson and Jim Lonborg are more like it.

A trade to the Rockies wouldn't hurt.

Exactly. Hee Seop Choi + Edwin Jackson + Antonio Perez for Todd Helton. That is what I'd like to see happen.

Wouldn't it be Hee Choi, Edwin Jackson and Antonio Perez for Todd Helton and $50 million?

Of course, I have seen him mostly with the Dodgers and a bit with the Cubs, not with the Marlins. And Florida is the only place Choi has succeded

Well, the Cubs didn't just form him from spit and clay, you know. He hit 88 HR in the minor leagues.

Well, the Cubs didn't just form him from spit and clay, you know.

I like that...Choi as the MIGHTY GOLEM!

Choi is one of those players who look worse than their stats, just like Armando Benitez or Adam Kennedy.

Adam Kennedy looks better than his statistics.