That hasn't been the case with Choi--even in his horrendous periods, he's still walking at insane rates.


Well, except for lately, while batting mostly in the 2 hole he has 5 walks in 56 PA

Karros against RHP: .246/.286/.397

Before Choi got hurt Dusty played Karros against RHP against whom he had had success (read: RHP who sucked).

Re: Choi's AAA batting average. Choi got an awful lot of at-bats at AAA (810) for a guy who was supposed to be a star. I suppose that could've been a result of the injury in 2001. He did hit .287 at Iowa in 2002.

I don't understand why Choi is responsible for how many ABs he had at AAA. He had no control over that.

I'm also curious why we would only look at AAA stats. I mean, here's what a general minor league comparison would show:

Choi .285/.387/.532
Bellhorn .270/.388/.467
Dunn .304/.418/.525
Ortiz .311/.386/.531
Thome .317/.415/.501
Salmon .285/.404/.517
Snow .286/.366/.443 (In almost 800 AAA ABs at more advanced ages)

I don't think Choi is a borderline HoF or someone with a decent long-term shot (Like Thome and Dunn), but I definitely could see him turning into Ortiz, Salmon or Snow.

Bellhorn as someone who has defensive value is probably not a good comp.

BTW, aren't Ortiz's 23-25 years very similar to Choi's? I think the MLB numbers are probably more reliable than the AAA comps.

Ortiz's 24 year was better than Choi's injury inhibited 24. Choi's 25 kicked the living crap out of Ortiz's 25.

Choi's beginning of this year (26) is identical in OBP (.339) to Ortiz's 26, except with no power (.420 to .500). He does play in Dodger stadium though.

On the Choi post-concussion playing time, I remember reading an article last year with quotes from both Baker and Hendry about how Choi still wasn't fully recovered when coming back from the concussion, and that was the reason Simon/Karros were playing 1B.

But he is in that Youkilis, Cust, family of players. He is a guy that a few statheads want to do an "I told you so" with, so he gets overrated.


Who are the players that statheads can rightly say "I told you so" with? Guys like Cust and Choi are brought up all the time as "proof" that we're wrong, but if we're so sure that we're right then there must be some successes, aren't there?

Obviously there's some selection issues, since guys that aren't liked by the mainstream either don't get a chance at all (Petagine) or get yanked at the first sign of trouble (Little Giambi (who had other issues, but he's the first person who came to mind)). Surely there are some guys who statheads like who do perform when given the chance and then go on to careers that exceed mainstream expectations.

Off the top of my head, there's Mark Bellhorn, Craig Wilson, and ...

Choi was stuck in AAA because the Cubs acquired Fred McGriff in the middle of 2001 and had him in 2002 as well. Also keep the park factors in mind for his stint in the PCL. Iowa has played at 960, 965, and 958 the last three seasons. Obviously, Choi was there for the 960 in 2002 but BPro doesn't list the 2001 (and I don't have an old one handy) so use those three to estimate the PF for that season.

Choi's numbers in AAA are even better than they look at first glance. To me, he looks like a severly streaky hitter capable of awful lows and dominant highs. I think the JT Snow comparison is very interesting in that regard. Choi, however, has a lot more power.

I don't understand why Choi is responsible for how many ABs he had at AAA. He had no control over that.

He isn't, but it means he repeated the circuit. I'm not saying Choi's garbage, but it's another little sign that statheads should've been more conservative with Choi.

I definitely could see him turning into Ortiz, Salmon or Snow.

The Snow comp works, even if Choi gets there a bit differently.

Off the top of my head, there's Mark Bellhorn, Craig Wilson, and ...

MGL's right about Craig Wilson.

Iowa has played at 960, 965, and 958 the last three seasons.

Yeah, but if I'm understanding their PFs correctly, they aren't league-adjusted (e.g. the aggregate for the PCL is 100 and the aggregate for the Southern League is 100).

MGL's right about Craig Wilson.

Do you mean before or after he realized he had been excluding HBPs in his SLWTS calculations?

Iowa has played at 960, 965, and 958 the last three seasons.

Yeah, but if I'm understanding their PFs correctly, they aren't league-adjusted (e.g. the aggregate for the PCL is 100 and the aggregate for the Southern League is 100).

Really? Do they do this because they only deal in translations anyway?

Otherwise, it's really weird to do that since no one is really interested in what a player would do in an average AAA park.

Anyone...?

Is it all just Matt Stairs/Brian Daubach guys who get late starts and have short careers?

I am happy the Cubs have Derrick Lee...

You have to admit that he sucked in 2003, but not as much as I thought.

Uh, he wasn't that good, but he didn't really "sucK".

Hmm, that grand slam he hit tonight plus a walk put his OPS over .800 for the season. Pretty impressive for the horrible start he had. Seems like he's developing fine...

2005 so far .269/.356/.481
Vs. LHP: .250/.571/.500



...in 6 PA.

Logic says "too small sample size" on either, but does he still look terrible?

Hmm, that grand slam he hit tonight plus a walk put his OPS over .800 for the season. Pretty impressive for the horrible start he had. Seems like he's developing

Nothing helps development quite like Colorado pitching. Let's see how he does against some real teams.

You have to admit that he sucked in 2003, but not as much as I thought.

No, no such admission is necessary. Prior to the severe concussion, he was hitting .244/.389/.496. Even platooning, that's pretty good.

What he did after the concussion that season isn't particularly relevant to what can be expected when he's healthy.

Then he hit well with the Marlins. He sucked with the Dodgers in 2004, but that and the brief callup in 2002 are the only times he hasn't been solid in the majors when healthy. And as the Matador has pointed out, his OPS this season is currently at .847.

IOW, he's certainly acceptable. Not a star (yet), but not even vaguely the disaster as a major leaguer that so many seem to believe.

Nothing helps development quite like Colorado pitching. Let's see how he does against some real teams.

Career .790 OPS - and that's including the period after the severe concussion, and his initial callup in 2002.

He seems to hit acceptably against "real" teams.

Incidentally, his grand slam in the 5th was only the second Dodger hit of the game.

Choi has actually played almost exactly as well as could be expected from his minor league stats.

Here are his stats for the last 3 years, combining MLE's and actual major league performance.

2002 (mostly minors)
AB 528 BA .242 HR 22 K 143 BB 77
2003
AB 268 BA .220 HR 13 K 91 BB 44
2004
AB 343 BA .251 HR 15 K 96 BB 63

Average per 500 at bats:
BA .240 HR 22 K 145 BB 81
About a .345 OBP and .425 SA

I've he had been healthy enough/ gotten the opportunity to play full time the last 3 years, he'd be Carlos Pena.

"Nothing helps development quite like Colorado pitching. Let's see how he does against some real teams."

Why do you hate this guy? Because "stat heads" like him? You know, there are a lot of scouts who like him too. That's why the Marlins traded Derek Lee for him. He's a great defender and has a ton of power. Yeah, he strikesout alot, but so does 95% of the power hitters in the league. So what is you deal here?

Why do you hate this guy? Because "stat heads" like him?

Yes, obviously.