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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, November 18, 2006
DREW: THE PHANTOM OF VENICE?
Dodgers fans who are upset about J.D. Drew’s decision to opt out of his contract last week might not have to travel far to express their displeasure with the outfielder. The Angels, according to industry sources, are interested in signing Drew to play center field.
Drew, who forfeited $33 million in guaranteed salary from the Dodgers, might not be the Angels’ No. 1 choice. Alfonso Soriano remains the team’s top free-agent target, and the Angels are believed to have extended the slugger an offer of five or six years for about $14 million a year.
The Angels, according to sources, also have made an offer to left-hander Barry Zito, who could command a seven-year deal for as much as $100 million.
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1. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 18, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#2241080)I know he's been healthy the last two years (getting beaned in wrist doesn't count), but I don't trust him to stay healthy.
I can't explain it any simpler than that. He's a walking pulled hamstring.
Plus, what's wrong with Manny, Crisp, and Pena?
worst defensive outfield in the game.
Drew had a nasty knee injury in March 2002 and that was corrected by surgery that hindered him at the start of 2003. His other two big injuries were HBPs on the wrist. He'll never play 160 games because he frequently has the Mondays, but he's very good for 140.
Soriano did walk 67 times last year, more than in 2004-05 combined. Here's how I see it:
1. 16 intentionals, obviously will not be repeated
2. Average for 03-05 was 35, so he's 16 over his normal amount
3. Part of this is aging, most players walk more as they get older, part might be real player improvement, part might be luck.
4. I project him for about 45 walks next year, which is good for about a .320-.330 OBP.
Some teams can benefit from adding a high power hitter with low OBP like that. The already OBP-challenged Angels are not one of them.
5 yrs is too long, though. I'd try 3/45 if I were Stoneman.
I think the 5-6 year, $14 M per offer is to Soriano. At the end of the article, it says Drew might command a 4-year, $14 M per offer.
But your offer sounds about right -- 3/$42 with an option for a 4th year at $14 M with a $3 M buyout. I suppose that would probably end up structured more like $13/$14/$15 with a $16 M option.
I have no doubt that if the Angels sign DJ Drew, he'll immediately become Darin Erstad's mirror in center field -- he'll kick ass with the bat (instead of the glove) for a few months, strike out looking for half his outs with guys on (instead of grounding out to second), and get injured for the year in May.
If he signs with any other team, he'll be fine.
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