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Sunday, August 30, 2009

L.A. Times: Bill Shaikin: Will Chone Figgins run right out of Anaheim?

That could be the wild card in free agency. Figgins already is on the wrong side of 30. We can’t imagine the Angels—or any other team—would be thrilled to sign him to a big-money contract for four or five years and then see him lose his speed after two years.

Not to worry, or so says Dan Szymborski, whose ZIPS system is one of the most highly regarded player projection tools in the sabermetric community. Those systems try to forecast performance by evaluating a player’s most recent seasons as well as the development and decline of similar players at similar ages—speedy center fielders in their early 30s, lumbering sluggers in their mid-20s, and so on.

“In Figgins’ case, he has a broad range of skills,” Szymborski said. “Those types of players tend to age well.”

One-dimensional sluggers do not, he said. But, barring injury, he said there would be no reason to expect Figgins to slow down dramatically.

“When you’re talking about a guy who’s already 31 and is still a speed player, you’re not going to see a sudden decline,” Szymborski said. “There’s no real danger he’s going to become Sean Casey on the bases in the next few years.”

Casey never did run off with a World Series championship ring. Figgins has one. He might earn another in October, and then he might run.

Tripon Posted: August 30, 2009 at 11:24 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: angels, projections, sabermetrics, zips

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1. Leroy Kincaid Posted: August 30, 2009 at 02:21 PM (#3309061)

Casey never did run off with a World Series championship ring. Figgins has one. He might earn another in October

Gotta love non sequiturs.

2. Dan Szymborski

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3309073)

Quoting myself from an e-mail:

I was happy my comparison to Sean Casey made the cut, if only because some people will wonder why I used Casey, of all players.

Actually, when I think of slow, Sean Casey is the first player who pops into my mind, simply because he had this awkward flat-footed sprint. Mo Vaughn and Frank Thomas were slow, but neither of them looked like someone had just taken leg braces off of them.

3. JThompson Posted: August 30, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3309093)

Let's see...Figgins is 11/7 SB/CS since the end of May, 39-14 over all for his worst success rate since his rookie year. Not to mention more than a few boneheaded baserunning mistakes all year long, including his attempt to tag from 1B and getting thrown out on a pop-up to left to end last night's game. And this article suggests that he's not slowing down already??

4. Tripon Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:30 PM (#3309128)

If the Angels sign Figgins, that really will spell the doom of Richard Brandon Wood in Angel Land.

5. AROM Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:36 PM (#3309130)

He's not as fast as he was in 2003-04 (just look at his triples), but still extremely fast, and has become a much better, and more patient hitter. It's not that he hasn't lost a step, or won't continue to, but just that he's starting from such a high level of speed that he can lose some and still be an asset with his speed.

And that Dan's research for ZIPS suggests that fast players hold their value better - I assume this means their drop off as hitters is less severe. Figgins has also improved a lot on defense to the point of being an excellent 3rd baseman. I think part of that is him being allowed to stay at the position instead of playing all over the place.

Tough call with the progress Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood have made at AAA. The Angels should be able to get production from the 3rd base spot, but then the problem becomes, who leads off? It would probably be Aybar or Izturis.

6. AROM Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:37 PM (#3309131)

If the Angels sign Figgins, that really will spell the doom of Richard Brandon Wood in Angel Land.

Unless they move Figgins to 2B and trade Howie Kendrick.

7. Tripon Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3309134)

And lose those Howie Kendrick's Howard's ads?!?!

Man, are those Howard ads horrible.

8. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:55 PM (#3309140)

Figgins has also improved a lot on defense to the point of being an excellent 3rd baseman. I think part of that is him being allowed to stay at the position instead of playing all over the place

Though what argues best for a long career ahead is Figgins's ability to play almost anywhere, along the lines of Tony Phillips, Mark McLemore, Mark DeRosa. A player that versatile who can hit respectably is going to be employable well into his 30s, especially with the tiny position-player rosters nowadays. Whether it means one should pay him Scott-Rolen-like tens of millions at that age is another question, of course.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3309165)

And that Dan's research for ZIPS suggests that fast players hold their value better - I assume this means their drop off as hitters is less severe.

Yeah, pretty much. There's a relationship between the speed of a player and the rate at which they lose their non-HR hits.

Here's what I have for Figgins going forward:

YR      BA/OBP/SLG    OPS+
  297/379/389    107
  288/368/381    101
  277/356/362     93
  273/353/366     93
  268/349/351     88
  261/345/340     85
  257/341/331     81 

Add in 3-5 runs a year from net stolen bases and the fact that his glove has improved, as Sean noted, since he's been a full-time 3B (13.8 UZR/50 in 2008, 13.1 in 2009) and you can sign him up to a solid deal without getting burnt. I have him at 7 DR for 2010 and dropping a run or two a year or so.

You could very easily justify 3/20 for Figgins and maybe another year and a little more without feeling too burnt.

10. Dave Spiwak Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:35 PM (#3309167)

And lose those Howie Kendrick's Howard's ads?!?!

Man, are those Howard ads horrible.

Speak for yourself! I look forward to those Howard's ads on my one or two annual visits down to my dad's house during baseball season.

11. Tripon Posted: August 30, 2009 at 05:38 PM (#3309171)

Dave, you'd like the new ones then.

One of them has Howie accused of adultery, and another one accusing him of unethically making a profit using his connections with the Angels and 'Howard's.

12. Halofan Posted: August 30, 2009 at 07:21 PM (#3309216)

Figgy's good as gone. Wood at 3B, Abreu or Aybar leading off.

13. Walt Davis Posted: August 30, 2009 at 07:47 PM (#3309234)

You could very easily justify 3/20 for Figgins and maybe another year and a little more without feeling too burnt.

Yeah, but I don't think anybody's talking about a contract like that. At least I don't think you get Figgins to sign an extension like that right now though it might be what he has to settle for. I'd guess he's looking for a Brian Roberts type contract (4/$40) with a Melvin Mora (3/$25) type contract as the fallback.

14. jwb Posted: August 31, 2009 at 01:58 PM (#3309608)

along the lines of Tony Phillips, Mark McLemore

These are two guys I thought of for the recent "Gritty Black Player" thread, but not until after it was dead.

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Sunday, August 30, 2009

L.A. Times: Bill Shaikin: Will Chone Figgins run right out of Anaheim?

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