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But I'm sure it is true that some people think this is essentially a form of math, and they don't like math. The ideal way to disavow someone of that notion would be to get them into it via James. Not all that practical nowadays.
(Seriously, though, lady, graduating high school is a great time to stop talking about "nerds" and "geeks", if not preferably sooner.)
First paragraph of TFA:
Hey, you know what will make the nerdist position on the argument more amenable to people not already in the choir? Casually and rudely dismissing anyone who writes an honest accounting of why they're not inclined to enjoy the mathier side of life out of hand.
You kids are such dumbasses sometimes.
This. SABR newsletters of the mid-1980s (I joined at the end of 1984) were still promoting basic demographic information, such as newly discovered birth dates for particular players, not trafficking in Runs Created or Linear Weights.
Thinking too hard gives you wrinkles!
Having just watched The Bunker...every time she says nerd or geek (which she does seven times) I read it as "Jews".
I dislike math, I guess. I still remember how happy I was the moment I realized that I didn't need to take a single math class in college. But I love what math is capable of, and I love attacking problems with data, and math and baseball seem like good friends to me.
(Forget) that. Has Chavez chimed in?
FTA:
You're absolutely right. A totally good faith exploration of both those she went to high school with and the SABRmetric community. Especially given the innocuousness of the post you quoted, it seems like you're just pushing an agenda here irrespective of the actual discussion going on here.
Sorry, it was the whole "..and their sympathizers.." .
When I left the futures and foreign exchange area and went to the equities side of the business, I was able to see that it was all about determining proper value of an asset and its productive abilities.
The oppressed have become the oppressors!
Weren't we supposed to get villas, dachas, or something? Or at least T-shirts, when this glorious day fulfilling the promise of the revolution came to pass?
She is not trying to start a conversation and is not asking to be persuaded. She is using ad hominems toward people she irrationally dislikes due to youthful insecurities she couldn't let go. The article is not a dialogue- she literally says she is scared of long division- so dismissing it as stupid is a response in kind.
Not to mention that it would be redundant, since the main point of the article is that she's stupid, proud of it, doesn't want to be bothered learning anything complex, and people who are smarter than her are mean.
Despite that, she admits she's actually learned a few things (like W-L record not meaning anything). I actually take out of this that if she can manage to make progress, however slight, then it's actually an encouraging sign that people who aren't complete Luddites must be doing even better, and continued progress is inevitable.
If you can't understand the math--or choose not to--you can't understand the music. You may like the music, but understanding it and having a more richly rewarding appreciation of it is lost.
There's an app for that.
...anyway, after RTFA, she thinks Duane Kuiper is a journalist. He's one of the few former players who does play-by-play as opposed to commentary, but that's still not journalism. I'll quit feeding the troll now.
This is as stupid as anything in the article (which is pretty stupid). Everything in the universe is "mathematical". Everything in the universe is also other things.
Nomination for most pretentious comment of the year.
So basically the dumb thing about this article is the author kind of stupid and is proud of it. That's kind of like the definition of dumb, right?
I disagree that you need to understand math to understand music.
Simple, logical concepts almost exclusively based in algebra.
Opposite. While I often do, I don't here.
Disagreeing with you is no problem, though, Eso! :-)
Getting an engineering degree (OK, not getting the degree but taking the classes and learning exactly what's going on) made lava lamps no fun at all.
They were very little fun in the first place, but now - zero fun.
Trying to figure numbers makes most people feel dumb, so they don't do it; people who are good at numbers are (occasionally) envied or (usually) scorned as "nerds" and worse. And using numbers to evaluate a sporting event? That's just wrong.
I was obsessed with numbers AS a little kid, but when literature really got going for me, calculus just started to be annoying.
Haven't met my daughter, then, or my (now retired) math teacher sister-in-law. Ü
However, the above mirrors my experience - quickness in arithmetic/algebra that became aversion to calculus (even when I got good grades - on my 2nd try at the subject.) I've long realized that I was the weird one, not my friends for whom numbers remain something of a mystery.
Trying to figure numbers makes most people feel dumb, so they don't do it; people who are good at numbers are (occasionally) envied or (usually) scorned as "nerds" and worse. And using numbers to evaluate a sporting event? That's just wrong.
I had occasion to read a book titled "Innumeracy", wordplay on illiteracy, and it aptly described not just folks' dislike of math but their frequent and blatant misuse of it. I think this lady might qualify on both counts.
But, but...
You have to add AND divide!
When I was starting 4th grade, Joe Torre was in the process of winning the batting title for the local team. I remember the playground discussion taking place about exactly what was meant by 'batting average'. The first theory was that it represented 1 for a single, 2 for a double, etc., and added (i.e., total bases). That was quickly shot down -- at least one smarty-pants recognized that you had to divide by at-bats. Only after consulting the back of a baseball card -- I believe Rod Carew's -- did we recognize it for what it was. So the fourth graders figured out SLG, total bases, and BA right there at the monkey bars. This all took place literally among the chickens in rural southern Illinois (Cardinal's fans, even), quite a ways from some MIT-prep academy like Hunter College Elementary on the Upper East Side.
One can listen to and enjoy music on many levels, from analytic (such as: hearing how motivic fragments are used throughout) to not (such as: cool tunes! cool sounds!). I'm not convinced it's a bad thing to experience music on one or several levels, including just non-mathematical, non-analytic ones. Some folks never reach an analytic or mathematical level of appreciating music but love it just the same. I've written music before, and it's equally enjoyable for me to hear someone say they liked the work on a purely visceral level, on a purely analytic level, or a combination of these.
Second, I agree with Sam H. I don't think it serves the best interests of BBTF, baseball or statistics to heap scorn on this writer. She might visit this site and then what will have been accomplished? She doesn't sound stoopid, although she holds some positions that I and many of us disagree with. Judging her may be a nice way of amusing oneself, but it serves no practical purpose. I am sure many posters will disagree with my approach. But I thought that, along with a love of baseball, the premise of this site was to understand and explore what really works in baseball -- what scores runs, what prevents runs, how should a roster really be constructed, etc. And the scorn and judging on display here does not meet the standard of "What works?"
As has been stated many times already, she can't be bothered to make an attempt to understand SLG%. I'm glad you at least disagree with that.
It's a pity about the math, she would have fit perfectly into the stats community.
If you can't understand the math--or choose not to--you can't understand the music. You may like the music, but understanding it and having a more richly rewarding appreciation of it is lost.
Shouldn't it be: If you don't understand neurobiology you don't understand music?
But yeah, sure. Exclude 99% of all the world's musicians, and every single one of the best ones, from your music-understanding club if you wish. I bet your little club can be all smugly reductionistic together.
I can't speak for others, of course. I think this sort of thing is probably not all that rare though, and might lead to what looks an awful lot like a dogpile in these threads.
I agree with the general point, but I think there are a lot more math-aware musicians, or at least composers, than you think there are.
Yeah, for sure not every one. Pretty much every one I know, though. Interestingly enough, pretty much every non-musician I know of who has an especially sophisticated appreciation for music is a math-oriented person, or at least involved with a science that uses serious math.
Sabermetrics has become little more than a vehicle to sneer at other people, and people drawn to sabermetrics are drawn to vehicles to sneer at other people. If sabermetrics didn't exist, they'd be clustered around something else with and for the same end.(*)
Baseball kind of gets caught in the middle, but at least it's made money being there.
(*) With, obviously, exceptions.
For me, the threat of scorn drives me to try to figure out something in private before I voice a public opinion on the subject. This could be due to the fact that I was raised Catholic and guilt and shame were major motivational techniques!
To be equally fair, there are almost no such stat lines anymore. SLG is on ballpark scoreboards – and is it on baseball cards? I haven't looked at baseball cards in a while. Who's Who in Baseball doesn't have it, so that's a project: lock yourself in a room with WWiB and see how fast you can calculate SLG :)
The point is less being able to calculate the thing than knowing (in fact, coming to know intuitively) what it represents, and what it might tell you about a player. And I am sure everyone here, and a whole lot of fans for that matter, are very comfortable with that.
That's a big thing. I reckon I'm pretty much at the bottom rung of folks here when it comes to mathing, but I'm very rarely called upon to perform any of it, so it doesn't bother me a whole lot. As long as I understand the why, I'll let the rest of you do the heavy lifting on the how.
"I hate guys that sing serious." (Dean Martin)
Total bases are easy: It's just H + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR. I used to do that in my head all the time.
Once you have to start dividing, though, you're on your own.
Depends, at least when it comes to concert or "classical" music. In my experience (and I've actually got a good bit of it here), few performing musicians are especially math-aware, and those I know who are don't flaunt it. Same with musicologists and critics. You'll find this most often among college-based music theorists, and even then there may be limits to how deep their knowledge is in some cases. There used to be a number of composers (mostly college-based) who tended to be acutely math-aware (Milton Babbitt being arguably the best known example -- he was actually a math professor at one time), but that hasn't in my experience been the case for a while now unless they also are heavily involved with erudite upper-level music theory. And even for the most math-aware composer, that sometimes does and sometimes doesn't mean they apply anything especially esoteric math-wise to the music they write.
I haven't routinely found that composers/musicians in other fields (jazz, pop idioms, Broadway, film, etc.) or non-musicians listen to music on a math-heavy level of depth. Some do, though.
I do find that concert musicians tend to listen to music on many levels, normally much more so than non-musicians. But again, I don't think it's a requirement that all listeners should do so. And quite a few of these levels do not involve math much at all (tracking motives or melodic material, focusing on form and structure, focusing on scoring, and critically focusing on performance capacity, for four).
In short, if you are a math-heavy music listener, you will likely discover one or more further levels on which to appreciate a piece. But it's by no means a necessity.
(the strident tone of this article is obviously pretty silly but I do think the message boils down to the fact that statistics enable an appreciation of a niche offshoot of the game rather than increased appreciation of the actual games... and that not just really seeming worth it to most people)
1)I've tutored kids in basic math for years and have tried to emphasize to them that it is really important to get the basics down pat in your head because everything else builds from that. For high school kids I have also used Driver's Ed as a metaphor - when you are first learning to drive, you have to consciously think about checking your mirrors, making sure your turn signal is on, etc. Once you've been doing it for awhile you don't need to think about those things any more, they are almost instinctive to you. You can therefore concentrate on things like looking out for what other drivers are doing. Math often works the same way - if you don't have to think about the basic arithmetic, you can concentrate on more complex tasks. I have often used baseball stats as a way to introduce kids to division, fractions and percentages - it works well for some (it's how I learned these concepts!) but, obviously, the basic interest in sports has to be there for that technique to work. One size does not fit all and I have learned to adapt over the years. I have also emphasized to high school kids one other reason they really need to know this stuff - those who are now 16 years old and getting their first job at McDonalds or some such place - they are getting paychecks and if they don't know how to multiply or subtract properly they can't even be sure they are getting paid as much as they are supposed to! For some that is a motivational tool.
2)I have taken music theory classes (more years ago than I care to admit)and I have to admit they did enhance my appreciation of music. I think a good example of why it helps to understand structure is shown in the scene from the movie "Amadeus" where Mozart is dictating to Salieri in composing the Requiem. The audience along with Salieri can see the piece start to come together, what should follow what, etc. I think it's pretty instructive and enjoyable to see the creative process at work. Modern musicians may have a different take on things from a mathematical approach but I still think a lot of them may be thinking in mathematical terms more intuitively than they realize. I also think it's interesting how songwriting teams focus on different components of composition. Of course, I'm old, so I think of collaborators such as John Lennon/Paul McCartney and Bernie Taupin/Elton John. It was always very clear that Lennon was more focused on lyrics than Paul was, and Paul thought more about the music. Elton John has said in interviews that he hears music in his head all the time for potential songs but he has to get together with Bernie to have any chance of putting decent lyrics together. I guess different people hear different things in their heads, no matter what type of music they're trying to compose. In terms of music appreciation, I don't think you necessarily have to know the math behind it - sometimes it just speaks to you. Composers of film scores know how to elicit emotional responses depending on what is being heard - fear, sadness, joy, anger or exhilaration can all be conveyed from certain chord structures. I think it's quite fascinating, myself.
I may be even older, so I think of Richard Rodgers. A fascinating thing to me is that with Lorenz Hart, Rodgers would write music first and then give it to Hart for the lyric. Oscar Hammerstein, by contrast, would write a libretto for a show and then give it to Rodgers. At times you can imagine Hammerstein compelling the music: could "Hello, Young Lovers" have any other tune? By contrast, when the lyric comes later, the music rarely seems to suggest much of a direction for it, though a single title or refrain phrase might come first, suggested by the rhythm.
I can reread one every few years and still enjoy the heck out of it while marveling at how good James was.
Thanks again, and, Happy Holidays!
Danny Cater had the rep of being able to recalculate his batting average while running to first. Doesn't seem like he'd have had too much trouble with SLG.
Thanks again, and, Happy Holidays!
Whatever I may think of the article, that's a classy response to the heat she's taken.
I should also add that the website on her member's page features the piece below, posted above her own. It's hardly a hotbed of anti-saberism, but more like a site where a great variety of POVs get expressed:
Clutch, WPA and What RBI Gets Right
Of course....
Given Danny Cater's power, his very occasional extra-base hit (not to mention the extra time needed to reach the extra bases) would probably not have posed him much problem, I agree :)
I will grant that most everybody here is better at quick calculations than I am, but y'all still need to realize you're at the 99th+ percentile.
As the founder of Big Leagues Monthly's online magazine and site, I appreciate everyone's passion/comments on this topic ... specifically the comment mentioning that the site is "where a great variety of POVs get expressed".
I would also encourage everyone to check out our monthly magazine edition ... http://bigleaguesmonthly.com/
And our BLM Staff page, we feel like we are building a talented staff of writers ... http://blmdailyedition.com/blm-staff/
I hope it's ok to post these links, if not please remove accordingly.
It seems like it'd be easier to do that in the dugout before you go up to bat. Just figure out what your new BA would be if you got a hit.
Or something like that. For all I know he did them at home the night before and was just showing off.
I recall somebody challenging him. This Week in Baseball or something similar. Cater had no problem doing it live.
Oh yeah. He'd do the BA to 4 decimal places.
That's like saying the drink was pre-stirred before Reggie Jackson got there.
The only way this should send panic into someone is if they were so ignorant of baseball that they thought H, B and R were variables. She has no excuses. I'm not going to heap scorn and I don't think we should, but if I was a supposed lifelong baseball fan and didn't know what even went into calculating slugging %, I wouldn't admit it. Its like saying you've been a Rolling Stones fan for 40 years but only ever listen to Start Me Up and Satisfaction.
I don't think this is so. They both had their ways and methods of approaching the instrumental part of song. McCartney was more conventional musically generally, Lennon more intuitive, but their separate composition show that they both took the music part very seriously, but ultimately differently. Lennon,of course, was the more accomplished, more inspired, lyricist. Like Dylan, Lennon had a real feel for words. The lyrics of Come Together and I Am the Walrus (the entire composition), to name just two, could haved been written by no one else. McCartney's best lyrical productions mostly came when he was pushed by Lennon to be better.
Well, except for the line that was written by Chuck Berry.
the reason so many people hate sabermetrics is because too many stat sorts can't wait to sneer at people and call them stupid. it doesn't hardly win you admiration.
there are many things about the way numbers are calculated that don't make logical sense. not everyone is good at math. spitting on people who really can't do math or understand math is like justin verlander spitting on you because you can't throw a baseball 75 MPH let alone 95 MPH. why the **** can't you do it you lazy worthless weakling wimps? it's easy. you just throw the ball. not having an ability to do advanced math does not equal stupid.
lots of baseball numbers are not difficult to figure out - like BA or ERA or WHIP or SLG. but anything that has a linear regression or a weighted something - you are supposed to be able to figure out how to linearly weight something? you ever take a look at those formulas? how many people out there do you think can understand what the marcel the monkey formula IS, let alone calculate it? i would bet that if you took any random group of 100 people with am advanced college degree that is not math/engineering and asked them to define "multiple linear regression" and calculate one, they wouldn't even know what those words mean.
take a look at this batting runs formula
and you seriously think that anyone who can't easily and immediately figure out this ABF is stoopid? I bet that plenty of you couldn't figure it out in even an hour if you had the league's compete stats for the year.
and when you tell people that they can't understand or appreciate baseball unless they have a tangotiger intellect and understanding of these numbers and that they are stupid to boot - well, people are going to hate you and think of some way to put you down. AND reject whatever numbers you come up with along with anything you say, just because you are unpleasant and rude.
But I think you have things exactly backwards. I can't think of a stathead who says you need to understand how linear weights are put together to enjoy baseball. There are however plenty of people who have asserted that understanding advanced metrics interferes with the enjoyment of the game.
Or to put it more simply, that you can't be a fan if you do understand linear weights (or whatever batting stat beyond the traditional ones)
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugexp=les;edymh&gs_nf=3&cp=7&gs_id=w&xhr=t&q=war+sabermetrics&pf=p&safe=off&tbo=d&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&oq=war+sab&gs;_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=775112e853595b1e&bpcl=38897761&biw=1366&bih=667
Ha, someone attacking the "stupid" for using ad hominem. Physician, heal thyself.
I'm perfectly willing, as I've demonstrated many times, to go to great lengths to discuss most any matter--unlike many here.
And you don't know what ad hominem means. That isn't ad hominem.
You mean the kind of "rigorous critical thinking" that pronounced Mike Trout the MVP because of WAR, without knowing any of the other criteria the writers are asked to use when voting -- like games played?
Reducing the MVP vote to a WAR contest, when "value" is but one of the delineated voting factors, practically defines "stupid." Calling the other side "stupid" while parading and wallowing in such abject idiocy borders on Orwellian.
As Lisa noted, much of the stats crowd is drawn to "stats" because it's a useful vehicle to sneer at other people. The urge to sneer precedes the attraction to stats.
WAR is likely the best framework we have for evaluating on field value. That doesn't mean you take the fangraphs/B-R numbers as gospel, but you need to take into account offense, defense, baserunning and position at the very least, however you choose to do so. Once you have your judgement of on field value then, yeah, you add leadership, etc. However, since no one knows how much leadership really matters (or how to determine which player is more of a leader than others), on field value should make up the bulk of your analysis.
Also this isn't actually a fact:
"As Lisa noted, much of the stats crowd is drawn to "stats" because it's a useful vehicle to sneer at other people."
WAR is likely the best framework we have for evaluating on field value. That doesn't mean you take the fangraphs/B-R numbers as gospel, but you need to take into account offense, defense, baserunning and position at the very least, however you choose to do so. Once you have your judgement of on field value then, yeah, you add leadership, etc. However, since no one knows how much leadership really matters (or how to determine which player is more of a leader than others), on field value should make up the bulk of your analysis.
Games played is a separate criterion in the MVP voting, and has been since 1931. It is entirely distinct, by rule, from WAR or "value."
"General character, disposition, loyalty and effort" is yet another set of explicit criteria that is to guide votes for MVP.
The MVP vote, by its very rules, is not supposed to be a WAR or even a pure "value" contest. Insisting otherwise is profoundly and irredeemibly stupid.
Well, the only way to approach the MVP "problem" is to know and use the actual voting criteria.
Quotes are awesome.
anyboy knows real stones fans only ever listen to 'can't you hear me knockin' and 'torn and frayed'.
"General character, disposition, loyalty and effort" is yet another set of explicit criteria that is to guide votes for MVP
Well, the product of the first two voting criteria is like WAR in spirit:
When you look at the 1931 NL MVP vote, players like Jim Bottomley and Rogers Hornsby, with excellent rate stats (strength of offense, at least) but only about 2/3 of a season in games played, finished well behind the players with similar rate stats but more playing time. That's a proto-WAR-like calculation that analysts have implicitly been making since Chadwick, I'd imagine.
As to "general character, disposition, loyalty and effort," these things are very important and should be considered. But unless you're talking about Derek Bell in deep shutdown mode, there tend to be only the tiniest relevant differences on this factor among major-league players. The guys you'd disqualify on the character clause here are the Milton Bradleys of the world, but the one year Bradley got MVP votes (for Texas in 2008), he straightened up and played his ### off. Perhaps not the sweetest disposition in the world, but loyalty and effort, that year, he gave.
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