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Wednesday, March 07, 2018

Latest on Arrieta, Moustakas, Holland

It will be interesting to see if he can pull a rabbit out of his butt on these guys.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 07, 2018 at 10:02 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents, scott boras

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: March 07, 2018 at 10:13 PM (#5635182)
Nuthin' up my sleeve ...
   2. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5635344)
What's the estimated date where you have to wonder if the team that ultimately signs Jake actually has to calculate in him missing a start or two?

I mean, I'm sure he's been throwing on the side, etc... but it's pretty common for even a SP under contract to miss the first week or two if he misses time in spring training. Maybe it's just all tradition bunk, but we've now hit the point where an SP is going to start looking to go 3 innings or so to work his way up to preparing for a 'standard' start.

Probably different for Moose/position players, but for the SPs -- Jake, Lynn, Cobb -- I have to think teams are at least starting to hint at the fact that maybe they ought to be getting some additional prorated discounts, no? I.e., in modern MLB - assuming full health - an SP gets what... 34/33 starts? Further delays are just inevitably going to eat into that number and the math is pretty easy to calculate a per start salary. It would be silly for a team NOT to say "Well, we already know we're going to miss 1/2/etc starts..." at some point -- and feels like next week is probably the point where this ought to be factored in, if it's not already.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 08, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5635347)
What's the estimated date where you have to wonder if the team that ultimately signs Jake actually has to calculate in him missing a start or two?

We may already be there.
   4. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5635357)
We may already be there.


Yeah, I think so, too - if not now, certainly next week.

If Jake is insisting on a 5-6-7 year deal, maybe that doesn't mean much. But for Cobb and Lynn - who seem destined for shorter deals - I think it's really got to start factoring in.

I saw Lynn rejected a Minnesota offer of 2/20 - which would have really been a massive bargain - but just assuming the two year baseline? Well, it's silly not to factor in that even assuming full health, 66 starts is now 65... and soon 64....etc. 2/20 is such a bargain that I have zero doubt the Twins would still ink it even if Lynn doesn't sign until March 31 and has to spend all of April at XST -- but we're basically talking about 300K per start, even at that deep discount.
   5. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5635362)
What's more -

Cobb has a long history of injury concerns, so the team that signs him isn't going to want to rush him. Lynn is year removed from TJS. Jake probably has the best health record of them, but he missed some time late last year, too. Maybe the calculus is different for relievers, but Holland is a year past missing a season, too.

If I were the agent for these guys - at least/especially the pitchers - I'd be pushing them towards looking at a big "one year and try again" deal.
   6. SoSH U at work Posted: March 08, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5635371)
The last two guys who didn't sign until after the season started, Stephen Drew and Kendry Morales, were both terrible that year.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 08, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5635380)
The last two guys who didn't sign until after the season started, Stephen Drew and Kendry Morales, were both terrible that year.

To be fair, they've both been terrible pretty much ever since then. So, it's hard to tell the difference between the effects of the late start, and the effects of being toast.
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: March 08, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5635386)
To be fair, they've both been terrible pretty much ever since then. So, it's hard to tell the difference between the effects of the late start, and the effects of being toast.


Morales had a 127 OPS+ the year after his shitty late-start season, then followed it up with a respectable 110. Drew's a better possibility, though he did have the one out-of-nowhere 2016 campaign.

And I didn't say the layoff was clearly the cause. But given the scarcity of examples, it's got to be a bit of a concern.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 08, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5635437)
And I didn't say the layoff was clearly the cause. But given the scarcity of examples, it's got to be a bit of a concern.

In the collusion year, didn't Tim Raines go straight from working out a home to MLB on May 1, and catch fire immediately?
   10. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 08, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5635449)
In the collusion year, didn't Tim Raines go straight from working out a home to MLB on May 1, and catch fire immediately?

You could say so. In his 1987 debut on May 2, he had a boxscore line of 5 3 4 4 with a grand slam, triple, walk, and stolen base.
   11. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5635451)
Yeah - Raines hit 349/444/566 in May of 1987... including a 4 for 6, 1 HR, 1 SB, 4 RBI first game on May 2.

EDIT: Coke to PRD
   12. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 08, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5635498)
Too bad that Baseball-Reference sponsorship on Tim Raines' BB-Ref page is vanished. It wasn't as classic as Len Koenecke's, but was more heartfelt.
   13. SoSH U at work Posted: March 08, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5635512)
In the collusion year, didn't Tim Raines go straight from working out a home to MLB on May 1, and catch fire immediately?


I was going to mention the others.

Raines was great. The only thing the layoff cost him was a potential MVP award. Gedman was terrible (he never hit as well as he did in 86 again, but he was worse in 87 than 88 or 89).

On the pitcher side, Clemens was good in 06, blah in 07 (but old both years).

   14. QLE Posted: March 08, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5635564)
Too bad that Baseball-Reference sponsorship on Tim Raines' BB-Ref page is vanished. It wasn't as classic as Len Koenecke's, but was more heartfelt.


On my computer, it's directly above the leaderboards- I think that it (and a couple more like it) were intentionally kept after the sponsorship system was shut down.
   15. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: March 08, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5635565)
Too bad that Baseball-Reference sponsorship on Tim Raines' BB-Ref page is vanished. It wasn't as classic as Len Koenecke's, but was more heartfelt.

Actually the sponsorships is still there, just lower down on the page
   16. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: March 08, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5635569)
#14 posted just as I did. During one of their updates they moved player news and sponsorship further down. They guaranteed that if you did a sponsorship it would be on their for 2 years—my one sponsorship is AAAA player Matt Carson who face planted trying to catch a ball once and I loved his effort
   17. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5635573)
Hmmmm.... could you construct a team of still jobless?

A rotation front three of Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb probably wouldn't be awful. Holland in the pen. Moustakas at 3B. Lucroy.

If this list is still up-to-date -- I think the remaining unsigned could actually form a team that would probably be better than the Marlins at minimum. Lots of older vets who may be done - or just about - but I could easily construct a 25 man roster that could probably win 70+ games from the remaining FAs.

SP Arrieta
SP Lynn
SP Cobb
SP Hellickson
SP Locke/Garza/Jiminez
RP Rosenthal
RP Qualls
RP Holland
RP Cahill
RP Blanton
Plus more!

C Lucroy
1B Mark Reynolds
2B Brandon Phillips
SS JJ Hardy
3B Moustakas
IF Aviles/Peralta/Hill/Escobar
LF Cabrera
CF Franklin Gutierrez
RF Bautista/CarGo
OF Holliday/Moss/Seth Smith
   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 08, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5635579)
but I could easily construct a 25 man roster that could probably win 70+ games from the remaining FAs.


At what cost? Would the payroll exceed that of the Dodgers?
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 08, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5635580)

SP Arrieta
SP Lynn
SP Cobb
SP Hellickson
SP Locke/Garza/Jiminez
RP Rosenthal
RP Qualls
RP Holland
RP Cahill
RP Blanton
Plus more!

C Lucroy
1B Mark Reynolds
2B Brandon Phillips
SS JJ Hardy
3B Moustakas
IF Aviles/Peralta/Hill/Escobar
LF Cabrera
CF Franklin Gutierrez
RF Bautista/CarGo
OF Holliday/Moss/Seth Smith


The pitching is good, but that lineup/defense is awful.
   20. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5635591)
At what cost? Would the payroll exceed that of the Dodgers?


I don't think so - I didn't spend a ton of time guessing/adding it up - but my very quick "guess + do the math in my head" leads me to believe that this team combined would certainly/definitely be under the cap... and probably closer to 100 mil than 150 mil. What's more - the longterm obligations are probably next to nil - just Jake and Moose, probably. Perhaps you need 2-3 years for Lucroy, Lynn, and Cobb. The rest seem like they certainly could be done with one or two year deals.

   21. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: March 08, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5635595)
The pitching is good, but that lineup/defense is awful.


Though, is it going to be much worse than the lineup the Marlins are going to trot out there?
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 08, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5635605)
Though, is it going to be much worse than the lineup the Marlins are going to trot out there?

The Marlins will probably better defenders, b/c they're young. But their lineup is probably even worse than yours.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: March 08, 2018 at 10:58 PM (#5635770)
Moose signed a pretty terrible deal with the Royals. See other thread

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